Time to revisit a catchy, data-mined, equity buy signal (with a decent explanation) that was first detailed at EconomPic back in September… the "Pub Power" equity buy signal.
What is the Pub Power signal? As detailed back then:
It is the relative strength of ‘food establishment and drinking places’ sales vs. grocery sales (as expressed in year over year terms). The relevance? Well, the data seems to suggest that "Pub Power" = Strength in the Dow, one year forward.
The thought was that the relative strength (i.e. demand) of restaurants relative to cooking at home shows the following characteristics:
Or something like that…
On the other hand, when times are tough, individuals are more likely to eat at home, causing year over year sales at pubs to decline relative to grocery stores. At the time the signal pointed to a further run in the Dow and here we are four months and 10% later.
So lets take a look at what the signal is telling us now…
Beware all of you equity investors out there… the Pub Power signal has turned negative.
Why does this matter?
It probably doesn’t, but from December 1993 through December 2008 (the last period in which we have one year forward data on the Dow) the Dow has returned an average of -9.8% one year forward when the "Pub Power" was negative and 10.8% when the signal was positive.
Vringo (NASDAQ: VRNG) today announced that the Second Chamber of the District Court in Mannheim, Germany issued its decision in the patent infringement lawsuit brought by Vringo's wholly-owned subsidiary, Vringo Germany GmbH, against ZTE Corp. (OTC: ZTCOY)and its German subsidiary ZTE Deutschland GmbH (collectively, "ZTE"). The Court found that certain of ZTE's SDR base stations distributed to mobile telecommunications operator E-Plus contributorily infringe the German part of Vringo's European Patent 1,186,119 B1 (the "'119 Patent"). The Court ruled that ZTE must cease and desist offering and distributing the infringing base stations that make use of the '119 Patent to customers in Germany. The Court als...
About a year ago we discussed the argument made by Goldman's lawyers that under the Volcker rule, banks should be allowed to invest in credit funds (see post). The rationale is that if banks can lend to companies directly, why can't they invest in funds who make the same types of loans? In particular, Goldman was defending its lucrative mezzanine fund business which provides junior capital to companies. Goldman and other banks compete with private equity firms such as Blackstone in managing credit portfolios for clients.
Today gold slid under $1200 per ounce, dropping to a level not seen in three years. Judging by the price action one would think that gold is not only overflowing from precious metal vaults everywhere, but can be found thrown away on the street, where nobody even bothers to pick it up. One would be wrong. In fact, as Bloomberg's Ken Goldman reports, "you could walk into a vault in London and they were packed to the rafter with gold, and the gold would trade from me to you to somebody else. You could walk into these vaults today and they are virtually empty. All that gold has been transferred out of London, 26 million ounces...." To find out where it has gone and why it is nev...
Stocks made a slight retreat on Thursday after two disappointing economic reports.
Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to hit new record intraday and closing highs on Thursday, stocks generally declined in the wake of an awful report on initial unemployment claims from the Department of Labor. Initial claims for the week ending December 14 climbed by 10,000 to a dismal, 379,000. The four-week moving average climbed by 13,250 to 343,500. A Second Week of Higher Jobless Claims
The National Association of Realtors reported that ...
USB – U.S. Bancorp – Shares in the financial services provider yesterday rallied to the highest level since September of 2008, moving sharply higher during the final two hours of the session on Wednesday following the Fed’s announcement that it will reduce its asset purchases by $10 billion starting in January. The stock is off 0.50% on Thursday to stand at $39.92 just before 11:30 a.m. in New York trading.
Trading in the regular Jan ’14 $39 strike puts on USB near the start of the session suggests at least one options player is bracing for the ...
Note from Doug: Having lived for two wonderful years in Paoli, PA, a suburb west of Philadelphia just south of Valley Forge, I have a special interest in this regional indicator. But, more importantly, it gives a generally reliable clue as to direction of the broader Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.
The Philly Fed's Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. The latest gauge of General Activity came in at 6.5, a statistically insignificant change from the previous month's 7.0. The 3-month moving average came in at 11.1, down from 16.2 last ...
Well, Fed Chairman Bernanke has proved me wrong by dipping his toe into the dreaded tapering of QE3. In retrospect, I suppose he preferred to take this first step on his own rather than put the onus (and any associated fallout) on the back on his successor. However, by wrapping his announcement with a pink bow and couching it in reassuring terms, stocks reacted favorably -- and on strong volume, to boot. In fact, I think it’s safe to say that Bernanke said all the right things and equity investors took it as the green flag for their widely-anticipated year-end rally. It’s always easier to forge ahead into uncharted territory when you know there’s someone powerful who’s got your back.
Despite an initially negative knee-jerk reaction to the Fed’s taper announcement, the Dow Industrials and ...
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This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
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These rallies are becoming familiar. In early July we saw a streak of 12 of 13 sessions in a row up, early September 11 of 12, and mid October 11 of 13 (current streak). It is a bit uncanny the similarities and how the escalator goes straight up in vertical ascent as we see indexes come out of mini corrections during QE. So we are about at the same stage where the last two began to tire, so it will be interesting if this is similar or if the current consensus of the market that there is nothing to worry about until next year as the Fed and D.C. are both off the table and this 3% annual growth rate in earnings we are now seeing in the S...
Welcome to the fouth update of the IRA Virtual Portfolio. First I am going to summarize the current state of the Portfolio then I will get into all the activity we had during September expiration.
Profit and Loss – Net of closed positions the portfolio is up a total of $769
Market Commentary – Last expiration I said, "I would like to put a total of $20,000 to work by the end of SEP expiration. If the VIX pops up to around 20 I plan to put about $50,000 total to work." The market didn't quite reach the goal but I did manage to deploy $15,000 of buying power. I still feel the market is too high and expect a correction during October. If the vix pops up to around 20 I still plan to put about $50,000 to work. If a correction doesn't happen I still plan to have a total of $25,000 in buying power put to work by October expiration. Now on to the act...
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Come and get it! Read all about it! Biotechs, biotechs and more biotechs to buy buy buy for your portfolio! To date, almost 30 biotech companies have hit the market. Most of the time, there are fewer than 10-12!
For the last five years, biotechs have had issues obtaining offer prices above expectations. In 2013, that trend looks to be broken. According to BiotechNow, the offer prices are 4% above expectations! In addition, biotechs are going public with little more than a wing and a prayer (pre-clinical or Phase 1 data only). Really? What this means is that the drug or technology looks good in mice, rats, or dogs, etc, but there is no smidgen of evidence that it will work in humans. That's what is called an appitite for RISK!
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