Posts Tagged ‘retail sales report’

Heh Where Are The Sales?

Heh Where Are The Sales?

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker 

But I thought we had an economic recovery underway?

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $360.2 billion, a decrease of 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month

Heh, that’s not so good.  Ex-autos sales were down -0.15%, implying what we’ve already seen reported: auto sales have gone in the tank.

But that’s not the only place we found bad news.  Building materials were down about 1%, and, interestingly, so were food and beverage stores (about 1/2%.)  Gasoline sales were down 2%, while clothing stores, general merchandise and electronics were up slightly.

All in all not a disastrous report – but definitely not a strong one either.  The market reaction was immediately negative, although the move (about 1/2% southbound) wasn’t dramatic.

The evidence continues to mount that the economy is, indeed, slowing once again.

 


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Durable Goods “Mistake” Or FRAUD?

Durable Goods "Mistake" Or FRAUD?

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

Handcuffed businessman holding credit cards

On January 5th the durables report for November was ‘released’.

It showed a 0.2% increase.  I didn’t write on it at the time, as it didn’t appear to be particularly consequential.  The report, of course, came in the middle of the first-week January market rally.

But now, in the dark of night, the number has been revised – to a decrease of 0.7%.  The reason is a claimed "statistical error."

This, by the way, should have been obvious from the retail sales report, which I did write on.

Here’s the ugly – the Census’ link to the report is now listed as missing (that is, intentionally removed!) and what’s worse the link they refer you to, the "Historical M3 Releasesdoes not have the corrected November data – it only has releases through October on it.

That is, November’s report has disappeared. 

No, the "historical" tab doesn’t have it either.  Attempting to retrieve it off the link in Google’s search returns a "not currently available, see historical" message – but it’s not there.

You would think that such an "error" would result in an immediate press release by Census identifying the cause of the error and a corrected report, along with CNBS and the rest of "ToutTV" talking about how this "mistake" happened and alerting investors to the fact that they had made decisions based on "mistaken" information and in fact durables had suffered a second sequential decline.

YOU WOULD BE WRONG.

Are we now down to rank fraud in "data releases" from our government, revised in the dark of night without public notice or press release, with the agencies claiming "statistical error"?

Folks, honest errors are immediately admitted to when discovered and disseminated to all of the people who the government or agency knows relies on these figures for economic decisions.

But when "errors" are less than honest the person or agency committing them attempts to hide the evidence instead of admitting to and publicly exposing their mistake.

You decide.

 


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Phil's Favorites

"Shrinkflation" - How Food Companies Implement Massive Price Hikes Without You Ever Noticing

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Do you ever get the sense that your favorite steak at that Quick Service Restaurant of your choice keeps getting thinner and thinner all while your check size at the end of the night continues getting larger and larger. Well, it is. How else are publicly traded chains going to continue to deliver margin growth to Wall Street in the midst of rising labor costs, rising commodity costs and shrinking customer traffic?

As a new study in the U.K. just revealed, shrinking portion sizes among food manufacturers is actually way more common than you might think and you probably never even noticed it. In fact, according to data from the Office for National Statistics, over 2,500 consumer products in the U.K. shrunk in size over the past five...



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Biotech

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

The cells inside this bioreactor are the real pharmaceutical factories. Sanofi Pasteur, CC BY-NC-ND

In a factory just outside San Francisco, there’s an upright stainless steel vat the size of a small car, and it’s got something swirling inside.

The vat is stud...



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ValueWalk

A Very Simple Formula For Figuring Out How Many Stocks To Hold

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

At the Acquirer’s Multiple we believe your equally weighted portfolio should consist of 20-30 stocks generated from our Deep Value Stock Screens.

In general terms, holding more stocks leads to greater diversification, and lower volatility, but is harder to manage and requires more purchases. Fewer stocks reduces the number of purchases, but leads to great volatility, and magnifies the impact on the portfolio of an unexpected event.

]]> Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

We respect your ...



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Zero Hedge

Lagarde Hints At IMF Being Based In China In Future

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In a comment sure to stir up questions over dollar hegemony (and new world order conspiracy thoughts), IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde admitted during an event today in Washington that The International Monetary Fund could be based in Beijing in a decade.

As Reuters reports, Lagarde said that such a move was "a possibility" be...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Insider Scoop

Analyst Comes Out Bullish On Blue Apron, Says Competition Concerns Already Priced In

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For July 24, 2017 25 Stocks Moving In Monday's Pre-Market Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jul 23, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

This past week represented so many of the weeks of 2017; slow action with a bit of an upward skew.   Monday, Tuesday, Thursday were sleeping – and minor gains Wednesday were offset by small losses Friday; in the end we had small gains for the week!  Rinse, wash, repeat.   For the week the S&P 500 added 0.5% and the NASDAQ 1.2%.  Sixty eight S&P 500 companies reported earnings this past week so that was the focus.

Fun fact:  Until Friday’s loss, the NASDAQ had a 10 day string of gains, matching its longest streak since Feb. 24, 2015.

The European Central Bank left key rates unchanged...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Nears All-Time High on Spike Above Daily Chart Downchannel Resistance

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) crushed shorts yesterday, smashing above the daily chart's downchannel resistance and soaring towards the all-time high around 3000. With yesterday's massive rally, the negative weekly MACD crossover has been proved a false signal.  Odds are quite good that a sustainable longer term BTC/USD bottom was found last week, especially with ETH/USD also strongly rebounding this past week.  Some consolidation can be expected today with daily RSI and Stochastics tiring, although with daily MACD just having positive...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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