Posts Tagged ‘retail sales report’

Heh Where Are The Sales?

Heh Where Are The Sales?

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker 

But I thought we had an economic recovery underway?

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $360.2 billion, a decrease of 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month

Heh, that’s not so good.  Ex-autos sales were down -0.15%, implying what we’ve already seen reported: auto sales have gone in the tank.

But that’s not the only place we found bad news.  Building materials were down about 1%, and, interestingly, so were food and beverage stores (about 1/2%.)  Gasoline sales were down 2%, while clothing stores, general merchandise and electronics were up slightly.

All in all not a disastrous report – but definitely not a strong one either.  The market reaction was immediately negative, although the move (about 1/2% southbound) wasn’t dramatic.

The evidence continues to mount that the economy is, indeed, slowing once again.

 


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Durable Goods “Mistake” Or FRAUD?

Durable Goods "Mistake" Or FRAUD?

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

Handcuffed businessman holding credit cards

On January 5th the durables report for November was ‘released’.

It showed a 0.2% increase.  I didn’t write on it at the time, as it didn’t appear to be particularly consequential.  The report, of course, came in the middle of the first-week January market rally.

But now, in the dark of night, the number has been revised – to a decrease of 0.7%.  The reason is a claimed "statistical error."

This, by the way, should have been obvious from the retail sales report, which I did write on.

Here’s the ugly – the Census’ link to the report is now listed as missing (that is, intentionally removed!) and what’s worse the link they refer you to, the "Historical M3 Releasesdoes not have the corrected November data – it only has releases through October on it.

That is, November’s report has disappeared. 

No, the "historical" tab doesn’t have it either.  Attempting to retrieve it off the link in Google’s search returns a "not currently available, see historical" message – but it’s not there.

You would think that such an "error" would result in an immediate press release by Census identifying the cause of the error and a corrected report, along with CNBS and the rest of "ToutTV" talking about how this "mistake" happened and alerting investors to the fact that they had made decisions based on "mistaken" information and in fact durables had suffered a second sequential decline.

YOU WOULD BE WRONG.

Are we now down to rank fraud in "data releases" from our government, revised in the dark of night without public notice or press release, with the agencies claiming "statistical error"?

Folks, honest errors are immediately admitted to when discovered and disseminated to all of the people who the government or agency knows relies on these figures for economic decisions.

But when "errors" are less than honest the person or agency committing them attempts to hide the evidence instead of admitting to and publicly exposing their mistake.

You decide.

 


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ValueWalk

FBN Beats CNBC Even During Delivering Alpha Week

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Fox Business Network ratings for the week of September 11th – September  15th.  FBN beat CNBC even during their big annual Delivering Alpha Conference which is one of the biggest investment conferences of the year with Lou Dobbs leading the pack – another big win for FBN – see more details below

FOX BUSINESS NETWORK SWEEPS CNBC IN BUSINESS DAY FOR EIGHTH TIME THIS YEAR

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Phil's Favorites

Can the world's megacities survive the digital age?

 

Can the world's megacities survive the digital age?

Courtesy of Christopher H. Lim, Nanyang Technological University and Vincent Mack, Nanyang Technological University

Today, megacities have become synonymous with economic growth. In both developing and developed countries, cities with populations of 10 million or more account for ...



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Zero Hedge

Hurricane Maria Causes "Widespread Devastation" In Dominica As It Races Toward Puerto Rico

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In less than two days, Hurricane Maria has strengthened from a tropical storm to a powerful category five hurricane, dubbed in no uncertain terms as "catastrophic" by the NHC. Though it has been downgraded to a category 4 overnight, the storm made landfall on the tiny Caribbean island of Dominica, leaving it utterly “devastated,” according to the island’s prime minister.

...



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Chart School

Semiconductors Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It was somewhat disappointing not to see the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 make the break from resistance. However, the Semiconductor index did manage a breakout of 1,150. There was some weakness into the close but the fact the bearish engulfing pattern has been negated means the bearish overhang created by this pattern has been consumed.


The Russell 2000 made respectable gains as it works towards July highs. I would expect a reversal off 1,450 resistance but if such losses can hold above 1,430 then it will set up a bullish handle f...

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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For September 18, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Top Upgrades
  • RBC Capital upgraded Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) from Sector Perform to Outperform. Applied Materials shares gained 0.19 percent to close at $47.14 on Friday.
  • UBS upgraded Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) from Neutral to Buy. Caterpillar shares rose 1.51 percent to $123.20 in pre-market trading.
  • William Blair upgraded Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ARWR) from Market Perform to Outperform. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals share...


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Digital Currencies

Comparing Bitcoin, Ether, & Other Cryptos

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you’re probably aware that we’re in the middle of a cryptocurrency explosion. In one year, the value of all currencies increased a staggering 1,466% – and newer coins like Ethereum have even joined Bitcoin in gaining some mainstream acceptance.

And while people like Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan and famed value investor Howard Marks have been extremely critical of cryptocurrencies as of late, many other investors are continuing to ride the wave. As Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins has noted in the past, ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now (updated)

 

Why we need to act on climate change now (updated 9-13-17)

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Updated in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on September 13 , 2017.

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, he devotes a chapter&nbs...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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