Posts Tagged
‘Rick Bookstaber’
by ilene - March 11th, 2010 1:59 pm
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Courtesy of Gus Lubin at Clusterstock/Business Insider
QB Partners fits the description of hedge funds that Rick Bookstaber accused of pumping the gold bubble and — even worse — of fueling the bubble with publicity.
The New York fund leapt to the defense of gold by sending an email to Business Insider with a message for Bookstaber.
Attached was the point-by-point rebuttal they gave to Nouriel Roubini in December when he had the nerve to diss gold.
See Also:
Rick Bookstaber: Hedge Funds Are Pumping The Gold Bubble And Luring Investors Off A Cliff
See also this chart (below) via Jesse’s Americain Cafe, and the comment by bidwhacker at Clusterstock
The economic cycle is definitely not the right framework for determining when to be in gold. Gold bull and bear markets can extend across economic upturns and downturns.
Absent an "economic meltdown" as you call it, the best tool for determining when the gold price will advance (at least since Nixon broke the last vestiges of the gold standard) is real interest rates:
Gold bull markets happen in an environment of negative real interest rates…This is the closest thing to an one-variable indicator for the gold market. But as you point out, it only good over longer periods of time and not a perfect correlation. The way I like to look at it is, when you have negative real interest rates, the odds are strongly with you that gold prices will go up.
Tags: Bubbles, George Soros, Gold, John Paulson, Nouriel Roubini, Rick Bookstaber, SEC
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by ilene - March 10th, 2010 1:01 pm
Yesterday I posted an article by RICK BOOKSTABER, The Gold Bubble, in the Favorites. Having no opinion on the short or long term movement in the price of gold, I thought Rick’s article was thought-provoking, as he reasonably questioned the mass and loudish flow of money into gold investments.
Zero Hedge also posted the article, with a more critical introduction. I then perused ZH’s comment section to find a lot of animosity towards Rick’s opinion, even directed at his character (he works for the SEC!). The highly emotional tone surprised me, indicating a core belief was being challenged, as opposed to the fun and discovery of an intellectual debate. (Maybe this is typical in comment sections.)
Anyway, in this article, Nico Isaac also questions the faith many people have placed in GOLD as the next safety net against the ruin of our financial system.
For more on gold from EWI, download Robert Prechter’s FREE 40-Page Gold and Silver eBook. - Ilene
Gold: Best Supporting Role In Economic Downturns? Think Again
Gold’s safe-haven status is based on hype, not history
Courtesy of EWI, by Nico Isaac
As I sat down to watch the Oscar pre-show on Sunday night, March 7, one word was repeatedly used to describe the celebrity starlets and their designer duds: GOLD. Gold bustiers and gold lame skirts, shiny gun-metal dresses and glittery sequined gowns all basking in the golden shadow of the final golden statue.
Everywhere you look, from the Red Carpet to Wall Street, gold is definitely in "fashion." As for why, one word comes to mind: safe-haven. See, according to the mainstream financial experts, the more unstable the global economy, the greater the appeal for the precious metal.
And, with a staggering 17% unemployment rate in the United States, alongside slumping real estate sales, Eurozone weakness, the Greece debt debacle, and so on — the only thing going up is gold’s supposed disaster premium. Here, take these recent news items for example:
- "Bullion Sales Hit Record In Stampede To Safety." (Financial Times)
- "Gold Ticks Higher On Safe Haven Buying. The risk trade is resuming." (AP)
- "Gold Rose to 6 ½ Week Highs as the metal benefits from fears over financial instability in general. The market is looking for some security with gold." (Reuters)
- "Gold Rush: This is a new round of safe haven buying." (Bloomberg)
There’s just one problem: The correlation between a falling…
Tags: economic expansions, elliott wave international, Gold, investment, Recessions, Rick Bookstaber, Zero Hedge
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by ilene - March 9th, 2010 4:13 pm
Courtesy of Gus Lubin at Clusterstock/Business Insider
The SEC’s Rick Bookstaber can hardly watch as sheep-like investors chase the gold bubble straight off a cliff.
Although his employer doesn’t give market advice, the SEC’s senior policy adviser shows his personal frustration in a post on Roubini Global Economics. First, he drops this great line about how people don’t even pretend that gold isn’t a bubble:
Even if a guy is just after sex, he at least has the decency to act like there is some substance behind his interest.
Second, Bookstaber thinks hedge funds managers like John Paulson have a pump and dump scheme on gold.
RGE:
Given that “hedge fund” and “highly secretive” are usually said in the same breath, don’t you get suspicious when so many of the top managers are so vocally out there about their gold investments? And when their positions are structured in a way that make them open to view? Paulson and Soros have huge positions in gold ETFs. We know that, because if you buy ETFs, they show up in your 13-F filing. Granted, with an equity investment you can’t help putting that information out into the market, but with an asset there are plenty of ways to take the position without signaling it.
That they are taking a highly visible route to their positions suggests the game that is being played is one of leading the herd. The 13-F reports positions with a big lag, so no one will notice if they quietly slip out the side door while the party is still hopping. And how about when the view is backed up by none other than Goldman Sachs? Will they let everyone know when they think it has gone too far before they get out. Or before they go short? Maybe they already have.
Tags: Bubbles, Commodities, George Soros, Gold, Hedge Funds, Investing, John Paulson, Markets, Nouriel Roubini, public information, Rick Bookstaber
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by ilene - September 25th, 2009 11:41 am
Courtesy of Rick Bookstaber
I appeared last Friday on a the PBS program WealthTrack, where the topic was asset allocation, in particular, as host Consuelo Mack put it, how to build an all weather portfolio. I was the skeptic of the group. I don’t think there is some magic asset allocation that protects you from the buffetings of financial storms without it also trimming your sails during fair weather. Here is an encapsulation of my views from the program.
Asset allocation and risk appetite
One of the participants, asset allocation guru David Darst of Morgan Stanley, proposed various portfolios to protect against a 100-year flood, 30 to 70-year flood, a 25-year flood, etc. Those portfolios boiled down to putting less in risky assets and more in bonds; the more severe the flood you anticipate, the less risk you take. Of course, that will do the trick. If by asset allocation you mean determining where to set your risk tolerance dial, we’re all on board.
Asset allocation is like clapping with one hand
But the discussion of risk tolerance highlights that we can only go so far with asset allocation if we only look at assets. What matters is assets versus liabilities, because the liabilities determine our risk tolerance and, related to that, our demand for liquidity. It is impossible to formulate an ideal asset allocation strategy without knowing the liability stream those assets are intended to meet. There is no one-size-fits-all for asset allocation. This reminds me of an FAJ article I did back in the 1980s with pension actuary Jeremy Gold entitled “In Search of the Liability Asset”.
Diversification works well, except when it really matters
We all know the argument from Finance 101: If you hold 16 uncorrelated assets, your risk will drop by a factor of four. Well good luck with that.
During a crisis, when diversification really matters, correlations aren’t near zero (as if they ever are). All that people care about is risk and liquidity. All assets that are highly risky drop, all assets that are less liquid drop. No one cares about the subtlety of earnings streams. It is like high energy physics. When the heat gets turned up high enough, matter is just matter, the distinctions between the elements is blurred away.
This is not to say
…
Tags: asset allocation, bonds, Commodities, diversification, inflation, Rick Bookstaber
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February 11th, 2012 11:03 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
The prophetic words of Antal Fekete in his now infamous 'essay' on Gold are as relevant now (perhaps more so) as they were when he first wrote them 15 years ago - especially as the Euro-zone migrates from lossening fiat-money to quasi-money (greek pharma bonds for instance). While summarizing this must-read discussion of mainstream economic orthodoxy's mis-teachings is impractical, his initial introduction sets the stage for what is to come: "The year 1971 was a milestone in the history of money and credit. Previously, in the world's most developed countries, money (and hence cred...
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February 11th, 2012 8:20 pm
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Damn. Two (MJ and Whitney) of the big 4 of the 80s gone – Madonna and Prince remain. Probably the most well known Star Spangled Banner ever…
Disclosure Notice
Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund's holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog
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February 11th, 2012 6:46 pm
It's Well Past Time for Plan Z
Courtesy of The Automatic Earth
Mario Draghi captured the utter ineptitude of him and every other Eurocrat out there when he said the following at today’s press conference in response to a question about a Greek exit: “To have a Plan B means defeat already. I am confident that all the pieces of this will fall in the proper places.”
Most 5-year old children in pre-school have already been told not to believe that they can always win and that “winning isn’t everything”, but Draghi & Co. still refuse to consider the possibility of failure even as it is staring them in the face. What’s really disturbing is that the stakes here are obviously much, much higher than they are o...
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February 11th, 2012 5:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
It's interesting to watch some of the terms bandied about in headline news. For example, the LA Times headline reads S&P says student loan debt could be next financial bubble.
Next? Could Be?
What with the word "next"? Also what's with the words "could be"? Without a doubt student loans are in a bubble and have been for many years. The source of the problem, as it always is with financial bubbles, is cheap money, loans to nearly anyone, and in the case of student loans, no way to discharge the debt, even in bankruptcy.
From the article:
"Student-loan debt has ballooned and m...
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February 11th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
ICABUYThe projected value for Empresas ICA is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
FEICBUYProjected value continues to rise for FEI while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving....
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February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga.
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:
Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty
The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.
Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.
...
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February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fears
After wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.
After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.
Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...
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February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
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February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm
Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT
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February 6th, 2012 9:02 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
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February 5th, 2012 5:19 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."
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January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position.
AA Money
No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position.
Last week P&L - 310.00
We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium!
FAS Money
Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though!
Last week P&L - $4277.00
IWM Money
A decent week in this virtual portfo...
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January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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