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Posts Tagged ‘root causes’

China Set to Swing from Trade Surplus to Deficit

Scariest Headline of the Week: China Set to Swing from Trade Surplus to Deficit

Posted by TraderMark at Fund My Mutual Fund 

Based on what Julian Robertson said yesterday, and the fact we all know America is playing with fire – this CBSMarketwatch story had to be the scariest headline of the week. I don’t know how realistic it is, but if China eventually turns into a net importer rather than exporter (which is where they need to take their economy in the long run) … without a commensurate massive increase in savings in the United States – it will be time to call in Scooby Doo: "Ruh Roh Raggy!" The fact they could potentially be moving to net importers as early as next year? First time I’ve heard that.

  • China is emerging as a key export destination for Asian economies faster than many expected, thanks to the impact of rising income levels and government stimulus on the nation’s consumption.
  • But as import growth continues to outpace the nation’s export growth after bottoming out earlier this year, the world’s largest foreign-exchange accumulator is now on a path to start reporting trade deficits soon, according to Eric Fishwick, head of CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets’ head of economic research.
  • "China will be recording, at the current run rate of exports and import growth, monthly trade deficits early next year or the turn of the year," Fishwick said Monday at the CLSA Investors’ Forum 2009. "What is remarkable about its composition of imports is not just the pace, but the breadth. Nearly everything is going up at more or less the same sort of rate."
  • Official data released earlier this month showed that China’s exports slumped a larger-than-expected 23.4% in August from the same period a year earlier, while imports narrowed by a margin of 17%.
  • Fishwick said trade data released by other emerging countries in Asia show that China has been a big importer of a range of other products, outside of commodities, including motor vehicles and parts, along with other consumer durables and electronic products.
  • The trend bears out in other nations’ trade statistics as well. Singapore,


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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Chart School

New Jobless Claims at 298K, A Bit Better Than Expected

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending August 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 298,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 311,000 to 312,000. The 4-week moving average was 300,750, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 295,750 to 296,000.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. [See full report]

Today's seasonally adjusted number at 298K was slightly below the Investing.com forecast of 300K. The 4-week moving average is 7,000 above its post-rece...



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Zero Hedge

Gold & Bond Yields Slide As Stocks Continue Hawkish Surge

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The Fed minutes were hawkish - even Goldman Sachs and Jon Hilsenrath admitted it - so the exuberance in stocks (and VIX pressure) must reflect a desparate hope that Janet Yellen will indeed go full dovish tomorrow (or fear the consequences as we noted here). Record highs in stocks, however, are not being followed through by the USD (down today), Treasury yields (long-end down from FOMC minutes), gold (down), or HY credit.

From the minutes...

...



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Phil's Favorites

Japan PMI "Strongest Since March": Does That Mean "Strong"?

Courtesy of Mish.

The spin in media reporting, in both directions (but typically bullish), is pervasive.

Here is a case in point. Markit reports Japan PMI Points to Strongest Manufacturing Expansion Since March.

Does "strongest since March" mean "strong"?

Here are the Key Points:

  • Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ at 52.4 (50.5 in July). Modest improvement in growth registered in August.
  • Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index at 53.2 (49.8 in July). Output increased at solid pace.

A few charts will put this into perspective.

...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Option Review

Elizabeth Arden Put Option Activity Revisited

It’s an ugly day for investors in Elizabeth Arden, with shares in the name losing roughly one-quarter of its value overnight after the retailer of beauty products and fragrances reported a wider than expected loss and sales that were lower than analysts anticipated. Shares in the name are down more than 23% in the final hour of trading to stand at $14.95.

On Friday of last week we wrote a short note about put option activity on the stock...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bullish investors jockey for position as if the correction is over

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

As many investors enjoy the final weeks of summer, some optimistic bulls seem to be positioning themselves well ahead of Labor Day in anticipation of a fall rally. Indeed, last week’s action was impressive. After only a mere 4% correction, investors continued to brush off the disturbing violence both at home and abroad, and they took the minor pullback as their next buying opportunity. But was that really all the pullback we’re going to get this year? I doubt it. But I also believe that nothing short of a major Black Swan event can send this market into a deep correction.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 18th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The Stock World Weekly Newsletter is ready to go! View it here: Stock World Weekly. Just put in your user name and password, or take a free trial. 

 

#120692880 / gettyimages.com ...

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Market Shadows

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street.

Author Helen Davis Chaitman is a nationally recognized litigator with a diverse trial practice in the areas of lender liability, bankruptcy, bank fraud, RICO, professional malpractice, trusts and estates, and white collar defense. In 1995, Ms. Chaitman was named one of the nation's top ten litigators by the National Law Journal for a jury verdict she obtained in an accountants' malpractice case. Ms. Chaitman is the author of The Law of Lender Liability (Warren, Gorham & Lamont 1990)... Since early 2009, Ms. Chaitman has been an outspoken advocate for investors in Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC (more here).

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street. 

By Helen Davis Chaitman   

I confess: Larry D...



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Digital Currencies

BitLicense Part 1 - Can Poorly Thought Out Regulation Drive the US Economy Back into the Dark Ages?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton.

An Op-Ed piece penned by Veritaseum Chief Contracts Officer, Matt Bogosian

This past weekend (despite American Airlines' best efforts), Reggie and I made it to the Second Annual North American Bitcoin Conference in Chicago. While there were some very creative (and very ambitious) ideas on how to try to realize the disruptive Bitcoin protocol, one of the predominant topics of discussion was New York Superintendent of Financial Services Benjamin Lawsky's proposed Bitcoin regulations (the BitLicense proposal) - percieved by many participants at the event as an apparent ...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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