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Posts Tagged ‘root causes’

China Set to Swing from Trade Surplus to Deficit

Scariest Headline of the Week: China Set to Swing from Trade Surplus to Deficit

Posted by TraderMark at Fund My Mutual Fund 

Based on what Julian Robertson said yesterday, and the fact we all know America is playing with fire – this CBSMarketwatch story had to be the scariest headline of the week. I don’t know how realistic it is, but if China eventually turns into a net importer rather than exporter (which is where they need to take their economy in the long run) … without a commensurate massive increase in savings in the United States – it will be time to call in Scooby Doo: "Ruh Roh Raggy!" The fact they could potentially be moving to net importers as early as next year? First time I’ve heard that.

  • China is emerging as a key export destination for Asian economies faster than many expected, thanks to the impact of rising income levels and government stimulus on the nation’s consumption.
  • But as import growth continues to outpace the nation’s export growth after bottoming out earlier this year, the world’s largest foreign-exchange accumulator is now on a path to start reporting trade deficits soon, according to Eric Fishwick, head of CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets’ head of economic research.
  • "China will be recording, at the current run rate of exports and import growth, monthly trade deficits early next year or the turn of the year," Fishwick said Monday at the CLSA Investors’ Forum 2009. "What is remarkable about its composition of imports is not just the pace, but the breadth. Nearly everything is going up at more or less the same sort of rate."
  • Official data released earlier this month showed that China’s exports slumped a larger-than-expected 23.4% in August from the same period a year earlier, while imports narrowed by a margin of 17%.
  • Fishwick said trade data released by other emerging countries in Asia show that China has been a big importer of a range of other products, outside of commodities, including motor vehicles and parts, along with other consumer durables and electronic products.
  • The trend bears out in other nations’ trade statistics as well. Singapore,


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Zero Hedge

Guest Post: The Fed's Real Worry - A Pick Up In Deflation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live blog,

In several of my recent missives I have made several references to the wave of deflationary pressures that are currently encircling the globe.  

In "Japan: A Few Thoughts On The Crash" I stated:

"The unintended consequence of such actions, as we are witnessing in the U.S. currently, is the ongoing battle with deflationary pre...



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Chart School

Great Graphic: Focus on US Equities

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

The S&P 500 has risen by 16.7% year-to-date and 25% over the past twelve months. It has risen for almost 200 days without a five percent pullback, though ideas that the Fed may taper off its purchases of long-term assets prompted some profit-taking at the end of last week.

The Great Graphic here is from Goldman Sachs research that was posted on the internet by Finansakrobat. It draws from the industry reports of the flow into US equity funds.

After a period of selling that predates the chart, money has flowed into equity...



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Phil's Favorites

The Mother of All Painted-In Corners

The Mother of All Painted-In Corners

BY JOHN MAULDIN, Thoughts from the Frontline

Alice laughed: "There's no use trying," she said; "one can't believe impossible things."

"I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

– Alice in Wonderland, Lewis Carroll

I wrote several years ago that Japan is a bug in search of a windshield. And in January I wrote that 2013 is the Year of the Windshield. The recent volatility in Japanese mar...



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Insider Scoop

Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Open Higher, Home Depot Profit Beats Estimates

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Following the market opening Tuesday, the Dow traded up 0.36 percent to 15,390.13, while the NASDAQ rose 0.17 percent to 3,502.38. The S&P was also up, gaining 0.30 percent to 1,671.30.

Top Headline
Home Depot (NYSE: HD) reported an 18.5% increase in its Q1 earnings and lifted its 2013 earnings forecast.

Home Depot's quarterly profit surged to $1.2 billion, or $0.83 per share, versus $1 billion, or $0.68 per share, in the year-ago quarter.

Its net sales climbed 7.4% to $19.1 billion from $17.8 billion, while comparable-store sales rose 4.3%. However, analysts were estimating earnings of $0.76 pe...



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Option Review

Bearish Options Play Paying Off As Abercrombie Shares Lose Their Cool

Today’s tickers: ANF, XLU & XLV

ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch Co. – Shares in teen retailer, Abercrombie & Fitch Co., are getting hammered today, down 10% at $48.92 in early-afternoon trading after the company reported a wider-than-expected first-quarter loss and missed topline estimates, lowered its full year earnings forecast and said same-store sales would be down slightly for the rest of the year. A review of pre-earnings report activity in Abercrombie options yesterday indicates one trader was prepared for the pullback today. It looks like the strategist initiate...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Market Montage

Even Markets Where Central Bankers Directly Buy Stock Can Get Overbought

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

While the S&P 500 has had quite a year already the Nikkei has been the story of the globe as they are performing acts of central banking that even put the U.S. Fed to shame.  And Japan's central bank can buy ETFs and REITs directly per their charter versus the U.S. bank.  Combined with a yen in free fall it's been a heck of a move for the Nikkei since last November.  I noted last week we were seeing extremely rare weekly and monthly type overbought readings on bo...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Fed tries to refill bulls’ fuel tank as cyclicals lead

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

The market went through some gyrations on Wednesday in reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. He first defended continued quant easing by warning, “A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but also would carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery.” Stocks dutifully rallied and all major indexes hit new intraday highs.

But alas, consensus is apparently not a given over the longer term. The minutes hinted that a tapering off could start sooner, “A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth.” So …...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 20th, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

NEW: Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly! Just sign in with your PSW user name and password, or sign up to try it out. 

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

The IRA portfolio

Reminder: Craigzooka is available to chat with Members regarding his virtual portfolio performance, comments are found below each post.

By Craigzooka

I am going to share with you how I manage my IRA and the power of reducing your cost basis.  My goal each year is a 20% return in my IRA.  Sometimes I make it and sometimes I don't, but I believe that all of my success is due to reducing my cost basis.  To illustrate the power of reducing your cost basis here are some trades we did last year.  These trades are taken from an educational portfolio we ran in a paper-trading account for a little more than a year.

  • We bought RIG on 5/15/2012 for $44.13, sold it on 1/18/2013 for $46 but booked a profit of $1,154.
  • We bought MT on 1/4/2012 for $19.24, sold it on 12/21/2012 for $15 but booked a profit of $454.
  • We bought CHK on 1/27/2012 for $21.93, sold it on 10/19/2012 for $18 b...


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ETF Selector

Stock Market Gets Big News After Friday’s Close

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Stock market posts another record setting week, but the big news came after Friday’s close.

Courtesy of NASA

The stock market put on another record setting show with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) closing at a record high 15,118 and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) closing at 1633.70, another all time closing high.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gained 1%, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) climbed 1.2%, the Nasdaq Composite (NYSEARCA:...



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Pharmboy

Give Them an Inch, They Will Take a Mile

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well, well, well....it is good to know that there are others in the scientific arena who believed that YMI Bioscience's data (cough - Gilead) is a better drug than Incyte's Jakafi.  Now, the definitive data are still unknown, but there was enough evidence from a Phase 2 trial to take a small risk for a huge reward.  So, let's forget about Apple (AAPL), and do nothing but biotechs from now until Congress passes universal health care coverage for prescriptions....and drive the prices down so that research and development is no longer feasible to conduct in the US. Even Seattle Genetics (SGEN) has been on a tear as of late...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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