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Posts Tagged ‘SBUX’

Starbucks Options Volume Rises Ahead Of Earnings After The Bell

www.interactivebrokers.com

Volume in Starbucks options is running approximately three times the average daily level for the stock as of 1:15 p.m. ET ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the close. Shares in the name are up roughly 1.0% just before midday to stand at $79.95. Traders of SBUX options today are more active in calls than puts, with the call/put ratio hovering near 2.0 as of the time of this writing. Much of the volume is in 25Jul’14 expiry options contracts, most notably in the $80 and $83 strike calls which have traded roughly 3,350 and 2,550 times respectively and in excess of existing open interest levels in both strikes. A portion of the volume in the $80 and $83 calls appears to be part of a spread trade.


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Call Buyers Eye Rebound In Guess? Shares

www.interactivebrokers.com

 

Today’s tickers: GES, SBUX & LOPE

GES - Guess?, Inc. – Contrarian options trades initiated on apparel retailer, Guess?, Inc., this morning look for shares in the name to rebound during the next five months. The stock is down sharply on Friday, trading 4.7% lower on the session at $24.67 as of 11:15 a.m. ET, after the company announced Thursday the resignations of its CFO and COO. The price of the underlying earlier slumped 10.4% to a fresh three-year low of $23.20 amid news of the executive resignations and after a number of analysts cut ratings and share price targets on the stock. Options players positioning for Guess shares to recover next year purchased more than 6,000 calls at the Mar. 2013 $26 strike this morning for an average premium of $1.47 per contract. Call buyers stand ready to profit at expiration in March should shares in the specialty retailer rally 11% over the current level of $24.67 to top the average breakeven price of $27.47. Shares in GES last traded above $27.47 at the end of September. Guess?, Inc. is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings at the end of the month.

SBUX - Starbucks Corp. – Shares in the retailer of specialty coffee, beverages and snacks are soaring this morning after the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday after the bell and raised its quarterly dividend by 24% to $0.21 a share. Starbucks shares increased as much as 11.4% in the first half of the trading session to $51.94, the highest level since mid-September. Some options traders appear to be gearing up for continued gains in the price of the underlying next week by purchasing weekly calls that expire next Friday. Bullish players snapped up more than 320 of the Nov. 09 ’12 $52 strike calls for an average premium of $0.39 apiece. Volume in these weekly options is heaviest up at the Nov. 09 ’12 $52.5 strike call, where more than 2,000…
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Bearish Options Action In Athenahealth As Shares Slide

www.interactivebrokers.com

 

Today’s tickers: ATHN, SBUX & MRVL

ATHN - athenahealth, Inc. – A downgrade to ‘underperform’ from ‘hold’ with a 12-month share price target of $60.00 at Jefferies sent shares in the provider of cloud-based business services for healthcare providers down as much as 12.6% to $70.00 this morning. Shares in athenahealth are off their lows of the session as of midday in New York, though the stock still trades 9% lower on the day at $72.81. One options player positioning for shares in the name to move closer to Jefferies’ target share price of $60.00 during the next couple of months established a bearish stance in the December expiry options. The trader appears to have purchased a 1,000-lot Dec. $60/$75 put spread for a net premium of $5.80 per contract. Profits are available on the spread if shares in ATHN decline 5% from the current price to breach the effective breakeven point at $69.20. The strategist may walk away with maximum potential profits of $9.20 per contract at December expiration in the event that athenahealth’s shares plunge 18% to $60.00. Shares in ATHN are up 45% year-to-date despite Friday’s sharp pullback.

SBUX - Starbucks Corp. – Shares in Starbucks went the way of the market on Friday, sliding lower on the heels of disappointing earnings from the likes of Chipotle, McDonald’s and General Electric, among others. The stock is down 4.1% at $45.47 as of 12:20 p.m. in New York. Call and put buying in the January 2013 expiry options this morning suggests mixed expectations for the direction SBUX shares are likely to take during the next few months. Traders itching for a rally in the price of the underlying appear to have purchased 2,000 calls at the Jan. 2013 $47 strike for an average premium of $2.08 apiece. Call buyers stand prepared to profit at expiration next year should the stock climb 8% to top the average breakeven price of $49.08. Meanwhile, trading traffic…
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Thursday – World Bank Says Fighting Poverty is an Investment – Ryan’s Head Explodes

image"We don't see the focus on poverty as about charity, but rather about investment in future growth." 

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim outlined his vision of what the multilateral lender should do, focusing sharply on cases of significant poverty.  Dr. Kim said economic-growth expectations were being scaled back everywhere but that he was determined to prevent the substantial gains made by emerging economies over the past decade from being wiped out.  "Every country has to look at its public spending and see what works," he said.

The World Bank had their annual meeting in conjunction with the IMF in Tokyo this week and Dr. Young's message is no longer the opposite of Christine LaGaurd's, who has essentially come around to thinking that austerity is no longer the answer – pushing for debt write-downs for Greece, Portugal and Spain as well as backing Greece's request for two more years to meet its fiscal targets.  “We will spare no time, no effort to actually do as much as we can in order to help Greece,” Lagarde said. The fund’s purpose is “to make sure that Greece is back on its feet, that it can one day return to markets, that it doesn’t have the need for constant support.”  

Meanwhile, Spain was downgraded to one notch over junk (BBB-) with a negative credit watch by S&P last night but it was more of a "buy on the news" event this morning as it's certainly not a shocker that Spain's paper is worthless without the ESM backing.  Yields on 10-year Spanish bonds shot up 9bps to 5.89% but stopping short of 6% was considered a positive.  Spain is the poster child for the idiocy of using austerity to combat debt (ie. the Romney plan) as squeezing the economy by cutting Government spending has actually worsened the country's fiscal position, which has led to calls for greater austerity but these calls come from bankers and bondholders – who just want to get paid, no matter the long-term damage done to the borrowers.

“There is no chance that Spain will hit its targets,” said Megan Greene, director of European economics at Roubini Global Economics LLC, “The deficit targets are economic suicide.’  “Even as you cut, the gap between spending and revenue collection keeps getting larger,” said Jonathan Tepper, a partner at research firm Variant Perception. “We’re
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Big Block Of Upside Calls Trades On XLF

www.interactivebrokers.com

 

Today’s tickers: XLF, SBUX & BKS

XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – Options on the XLF are among the most active by volume this morning after a large block of upside calls changed hands in the first 45 minutes of the trading session. Shares in the ETF rose 0.70% to $15.03 earlier today, just below the three-month high of $15.06. Heavy trading traffic in the October expiry calls suggests one options market participant may be positioning for the price of the underlying to soar to a new 52-week high during the next couple of months. It looks like a block of approximately 87,000 calls were purchased at the Oct. $16 strike for a premium of $0.12 apiece. The sizable position may pay off at expiration in the event XLF shares increase 7.5% over the current price of $15.00 to exceed the effective breakeven price of $16.12. Shares in the ETF last traded above $16.12 in May 2011.

SBUX - Starbucks Corp. – Shares in Starbucks are continuing to recover today, with the stock up better than 2.6% on the session at $47.67 just before 11:30 a.m. in New York, on the heels of a rough patch that saw the price of the underlying slide 30% from a record high of $62.00 in April down to a six-month low of $43.04 in August. Options activity on the seller of Frappaccino Blended Beverages, Bistro Boxes and various baked goods today suggests some traders are positioning for the recovery story to continue to play out, at least through the end of this week. Fresh interest in upside calls is heaviest at the Aug. $48 strike this morning where 2,400 calls changed hands against open interest of 492 contracts. It looks like most of the call options were purchased for an average premium of $0.29 apiece, thus positioning buyers to profit should SBUX shares rally another 1.3% to exceed the average breakeven price of $48.29 at expiration…
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Tuesday: Through the Roof or Smashed into a Thousand Pieces?

 

GRANDPA JOE: But this roof is made of glass. It’ll shatter into a thousand pieces. We’ll be cut to ribbons!

WILLY WONKA: Probably

Is today going to be the day?  After pressing against our breakout levels on and off since failing them in May, today do we should finally have the gas to get over the top or will our Must Hold levels keep acting like a solid barrier?  Our goals on the Big Chart have been Dow 13,200, S&P 1,400, Nas 3,000, NYSE 8,000 and Russell 800 and we came right up against them yesterday but failed to punch through.  

It is certainly no surprise, in this BS manipulated market, that the levels they failed to take out yesterday in regular trading are all being crossed in ultra-light pre-market trading because, as we know, investors are complete idiots who use squiggly lines on a chart to make all of their major financial decisions.  Essentially, when you follow TA – you are saying to hedge fund managers – "If you can get your stock to cross this line, I will buy it."  That's very much like me saying to my youngest daughter that if she can get her older sister to say "quit it," I will give her $20.  Once she decides I'm serious – I'd be hearing "quit it" all day long.  

We were, at the time, at the top of a very bogus-looking, low-volume rally (again) that had taken us up 7.5% from 12,100 in early June to 13,187 at yesterday's high.  The S&P has been our leader but the Russell keeps flashing warning signs as it failed to hold it's -2.5% line (780) at the beginning of the month and looking very similar to the pre-disaster pattern we had in April, ahead of the May collapse – which we also tried to warn you about while it was on the way up on QE rumors (see "Federally Fueled Thursday – QE Maybe?" or "Thank GDP it's Friday – Reality Check?".  Despite being dead right to call a top at the time – it took the market another week to drop but we fell off a cliff on Friday, May 4th and we were down 1,000 points by the 18th so better a week early than a week late with these calls.

Willy Wonka understood stock market physics, there
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TGI Fed(s) – Promises, Promises

You made me promises promises

You knew you'd never keep

Promises promises

Why do I believe

All of your promises

You knew you'd never keep – Naked Eyes

Wow – what a party!  

The former Vice-Chairman of Goldman Sachs (Draghi) says everything is fixed and the global markets go flying – what's not to trust?  Would anyone form GS ever lie to us?  Would GS be involved in manipulating the Global Markets – of course not!  

Now that I've fulfilled my obligation to get my mother back unharmed – let's get real.  Draghi said the violent spike in bond yields in recent days was hampering "the functioning of the monetary policy transmission channels" – the EXACT expression used to justify each of the ECB's previous market interventions.  

Yields on Spanish two-year debt plunged 72 basis points to 5.47% in barely an hour, with comparable moves on Italian debt – easing the pressure before a string of debt auctions in Rome over coming days. The MIB index of stocks in Milan surged by 5.6%. Madrid's IBEX rose 6%, the biggest jump in two years, led by an explosive rise in bank shares.  Mr Draghi's comments came as Spain claimed backing from France and Germany for activation of the eurozone's rescue fund (EFSF) to buy Spanish bonds, though this would require calling the Bundestag's finance committee back from holiday for a vote. Action by the EFSF would provide "political cover" for the ECB to join the fray in a two-pronged attack.  "We're firing on all cylinders: that is what has ignited the markets," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at Morgan Stanley.

Joint statements from Madrid, Paris and Berlin said market turbulence "does not reflect the fundamentals of the Spanish economy, or the sustainability of its public debt".  According to Ambrose Pritchard, "the wording seems scripted to clear the way for intervention."  Of course, now it's time to put up or shut up as the Fed meets next week and the ECB has their pre-holiday meeting next week as well…
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Fixed Markets Friday – Greece All Better – Next!

The Greek debt crisis is over!

Again.  Well, for now.  Despite the "voluntary" participation of 85% of the debt-holders, collective action clauses (CAC) will be triggered to force other bondholders and a similar action in Argentina led to 10 years of lawsuits – so we have that to look forward to.  "The rule of law has been treated with contempt," said Marc Ostwald from Monument Securities. "This will lead to litigation for the next ten years. It has become a massive impediment for long-term investors, and people will now be very wary about Spain and Portugal." 

“Even if we band aid this Greek situation right now, they’re going to default down the road or write down 100 percent of the debt,” said Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors. 

Now the European Commission has sent a team of experts to Spain to check its budget deficit data, according to Spanish website Expansion, and they will be greeted by a National Strike, scheduled for March 29th, to protest the austerity measures the EU is trying to enforce.  Greek bonds are already passing the 20% mark again so this "fix" has lasted all of a few hours and already we're seeing rates creep up in Italy, Spain and Portugal (Ireland can't even borrow money – at any price) and part of the reason is they just blatantly screwed over the last batch of bondholders and Credit Default Swaps have now been revealed as completely useless tools to protect bond investments – and part of the reason is Uncle Sam needs to borrow a record $227Bn to pay the bills for February alone:

While the above chart may look like a catastrophe to a casual observer, especially considering February is the shortest month of the year – others may be cheered by the thought that the US will never actually have to pay this money back, as Greece has now shown us all that the path to default is celebrated by global markets climbing to record highs.  So, if Greece's $450Bn default can get us to Dow 13,000 – imagine what the US's $16Tn default will do – I can't wait!  

We are waiting for the jobs report this morning but according to the Gallup poll, there aren't any.  Gallup sees 9.1% unemployment in February, up
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Pre-Announcement Jitters Spark Action In Starbucks Options

www.interactivebrokers.com

Today’s tickers: SBUX, CCL & ZION

SBUX - Starbucks Corp. – Fresh record highs may be on the horizon for Starbucks Corp., according to some strategists populating the coffee retailer’s options this morning. The stock today reached its highest level since the Company’s IPO in 1992, rallying 2.5% to $50.75 in the first half of the trading session. Options on Starbucks are more active than usual today ahead of the Company’s announced 5:00 p.m. (PT) conference call to discuss a new initiative in the single-cup serving category. Bullish positions are building in the front month calls, with more than 3,800 contracts changing hands at the Mar. $52.5 strike against open interest of 146 contracts. It looks like most of the $52.5 calls were purchased for an average premium of $0.12 a-pop, positioning buyers to profit at expiration next week in the event that Starbucks shares increase another 3.7% to top the average breakeven price of $52.62. Volume in the April $52.5 and July $52.5 strike calls is on the rise, as well. Buyers of the options this morning paid average premiums of $0.65 and $1.90 apiece, respectively, eyeing the stock’s upside potential over the next several months. Meanwhile, traders dabbling in SBUX puts may be locking in gains and establishing downside protection, or are perhaps taking outright bearish positions on the coffee company in the view that shares may cool in the near term.

CCL - Carnival Corp. – Options on Carnival Corp. are humming with activity this morning ahead of the cruise operator’s first-quarter earnings report on Friday before the open. Shares in CCL are up 1.6% today at $30.91 heading into earnings. The stock got off to a good start in 2012, rising up to $35.14 – the highest since the end of October – back on…
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Put Options Active At Home Depot

www.interactivebrokers.com

 

Today’s tickers: HD, LVS, SBUX & NRG

HD - Home Depot, Inc. – The home improvement retailer’s shares have been on fire during the most recent six month period, with the stock last week soaring to $45.50 – the highest level in nearly a decade – on the heels of a more than 55.0% rally since August. A sizable ratio put spread initiated on Home Depot this morning may be the work of an investor hedging a long position in the shares, or, alternatively, an outright bearish stance looking for shares to pull back somewhat ahead of May expiration. Home Depot was cut to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Edward Jones over the weekend and shares in the name today trade 0.95% lower on the session at $44.09 just before 12:00 p.m. in New York. It looks like the put player purchased around 2,500 puts at the May $42 strike for an average premium of $1.54 each and sold 5,000 puts at the lower May $38 strike at an average premium of $0.72 apiece. Average net premium paid to initiate the ratio spread amounts to $0.10 per contract, thus implying profits or downside protection kick in if shares in HD decline 5.0% to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $41.90. Maximum potential profits of $3.90 per contract are available on the position if the price of the underlying drops 13.8% from the current price of $44.09 to settle at $38.00 at expiration. The sale of twice as many of the lower-strike put options greatly reduces the cost of downside protection, which may insulate a longer-term HD optimist from losses in the stock’s value given the potential for a broad market correction or disappointing company-specific news to weigh on the shares ahead of May expiration. Home Depot is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell on February 21.…
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Zero Hedge

The Terrorist Hackers Win: Sony Pulls Release Of "The Interview" Due To Fears Of "9/11-Style Retaliation"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update: and moments after we wrote this, Sony itself decided to cancel the release of the movie.

Sony Pictures says it cancels release of 'The Interview' http://t.co/HTzu5s2kqE

— WSJ Breaking News (@WSJbreakingnews) December 17, 2014

Straight to "must watch" Netflix it is.

* * *

One of the biggest conspiracy theories in recent weeks has nothing to do with the stock market and the Fed, or with HFT manipulation, or with Ukraine's gold, or with who brought down the two Malaysian airliners, but whether the now...



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Phil's Favorites

The First Casualty of a Bear Market

The First Casualty of a Bear Market

Courtesy of 

Nick Murray says “The ability to distinguish between volatility and loss is the first casualty of a bear market.”

I turned to one of my favorite passages of his masterpiece Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth this morning as turmoil from overseas and the commodity markets made its way through the headlines. Nick relays a great anecdote about how much money one investor personally “lost” during the last Russian Ruble crisis in the summer of 1998…

$6,200,000,000

Yes, that’s right, it’s six billion two hundred million dollars. A very large sum of money, woul...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

Chart o' the Day: Don't "Invest" in Stupid Sh*t

Joshua commented on the QZ article I posted a couple days ago and perfectly summarized the take-home message into an Investing Lesson. 

Chart o’ the Day: Don’t “Invest” in Stupid Sh*t

Courtesy of 

The chart above comes from Matt Phillips at Quartz and is a good reminder of why you shouldn’t invest in s...



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Insider Scoop

Pivotal Research Upgrades Twitter & Google, Finds Both Are Undervalued By 20%

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Analysts at Pivotal Research Group on Wednesday upgraded shares of Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) from Hold to Buy.

Analyst Brian Wieser finds both companies are currently undervalued by 20 percent.

Shares of Google were recently up 1.5 percent at around $503.

Shares of Twitter were up 1.6 percent at $35.63.

...

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Chart School

Market Selling Intensifies

Courtesy of Declan.

It ended up a roller coaster ride with markets rallying, then suffering losses to return indices to their lows. Volume rose in confirmed distribution, and many indices now sit inside Fib retracement levels - a good place to launch a relief bounce.

The S&P finished just a few points above the 50% Fib level, with the 200-day MA near the 61.8% zone - and a more probable place for a bounce.


The Nasdaq closed at the 38.2% level, but just below its 50-day MA. The inverse hammer at oversold stochastics is a potential reversal play. Watch for an upside gap tomorrow.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Energy sector rains on bulls' parade, but skies may clear soon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks have needed a reason to take a breather and pull back in this long-standing ultra-bullish climate, with strong economic data and seasonality providing impressive tailwinds -- and plummeting oil prices certainly have given it to them. But this minor pullback was fully expected and indeed desirable for market health. The future remains bright for the U.S. economy and corporate profits despite the collapse in oil, and now the overbought technical condition has been relieved. While most sectors are gathering fundamental support and our sector rotation model remains bullish, the Energy sector looks fundamentally weak and continues to ran...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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