Posts Tagged ‘selling the news’

FOMC POLICY STATEMENT & MARKET WRAP

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

FOMC POLICY STATEMENT

fed policyIt looks like no material changes to the statement.  The Fed is continuing their ridiculously predictable dollar destructive/ asset bubble policy.  As we suspected, the dollar is getting crushed, bonds are tanking, stocks are soaring and gold is higher.  I would be a seller of this priced-in news.

Release Date: November 4, 2009

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up. Conditions in financial markets were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period. Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. The amount of agency debt purchases, while somewhat less than the previously announced maximum of $200 billion, is consistent with the recent path of purchases and reflects the limited availability of


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YOU GOTTA KNOW WHEN TO FOLD ‘EM….

YOU GOTTA KNOW WHEN TO FOLD ‘EM….

WSOP No-Limit Texas Hold 'em World Championship

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

I still maintain that the rest of earnings season will be broadly positive, however, two negative trends have developed over the course of the last few days that have changed my market outlook from bullish to neutral.

The first change in trend has been the recent spat of “selling the news”.  After the 6% run-up since the beginning of earnings season we are now seeing investors sell into strength.  This is a clear sign that the buying power is waning.  In essence, the owners of equities now have more incentive to sell than new buyers have to buy mainly because earnings were largely priced in over the course of the last few weeks. A new positive catalyst will need to develop from here for stocks to make a substantial move higher.

The second negative trend is the move in the dollar.  Today’s nearly 1% decline in the dollar index is staggering.  The negative trajectory of this move is simply unsustainable.  I also believe the $1.50 mark in the Euro is one that will not be tolerated for long.   Compounded by the move in the dollar is the surge in oil prices.  It’s only a matter of time before analysts become increasingly concerned about the impact of high oil prices on consumers. Any move higher in the dollar (for whatever reason – short covering, politics, etc) will weigh on the market.

For these reasons I think it is prudent to take a step back from the poker table and take a break.  Although I am not shifting to a short position I do view this market as one that is characterized by abnormally high risks.  The strength could very well continue through the next 3 weeks of earnings season, but after the 6% surge over the last 4 weeks I think it is prudent to take profits here.

Sometimes when you’re sitting on a strong hand you need to realize that the risks outweigh the rewards and that perhaps your hand isn’t quite as strong as you think….

****

Kenny Rogers – The Gambler

 


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Zero Hedge

Why Bond Traders Have Never Been More Confused: "The Rates Market Is Sending Diametrically Opposite Messages"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last weekend, as Deutsche Bank's derivatives strategist Aleksandar Kocic was looking at the spread between the short and long end of the curve, and while contemplating the lack of market volatility, he concluded that "given where long rates are, Fed appears as overly hawkish – it has only two more hikes to go and, for volatility and risk premia to reprice higher, the gap h...



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Bearish Fund Traders Head For Early Hibernation

 

Bearish Fund Traders Head For Early Hibernation

Courtesy of Dana Lyons, with introduction by Zero Hedge 

'Speculators' have never been so confidently complacent that 'all is well'.

Speculative positioning in VIX futures and options remains at its most short in history as traders refuse to back away from 'what works' as realized volatility collapses to its lowest in over 60 years......



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ValueWalk

Full Transcript Of Donald Trump Interview With Maria Bartiromo [PREVIEW]

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Please see below for the full transcript of FOX Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo. The interview with President Donald Trump today that will be airing across FOX Business Network’s (FBN) Mornings with Maria (6-9AM/ET) and FOX News Channel’s (FNC) Sunday Morning Futures 10AM/ET).

]]> Know more about Russia than your friends:

Get our free ebook on how the Soviet Union became Putin's Russia.

When:

Part 1 - Sunday, October 22nd  on FOX News Channel’s Sunday Morning Futures (10-11AM/ET)

Part 2 - Monday, October 23rd on FOX Business Network’s Mornings with Maria (6-9AM/ET)

...



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Insider Scoop

There Could Be 109% Upside In uniQure As Company Advances Gene Therapy Into Clinical Trials

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related QURE 32 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session Wall Street's M&A Chatter From October 19: Uniqure, Ulta, Sally Beauty,...

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Chart School

All Day Recovery

Courtesy of Declan.

It had looked bleak for markets at the open following a big gap down. However, this was just a temporary hit as markets came back right from the open.  It's also good news for bulls or long holders. The S&P shows this best.


The Dow Jones actually went as far as to test former upper channel resistance, now turned support.  Volume climbed in accumulation.

...

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Digital Currencies

The World's Largest ICO Is Imploding After Just 3 Months

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Earlier this summer, Tezos smashed existing sales records in the white-hot IPO market after the company’s pitch to build a better blockchain for cryptocurrencies made it one of the buzziest ICOs in the world. As we noted at the time, the company capitalized on that buzz by courting VC firms and other institutional investors with a $50 million token pre-sale. After the company opened up selling to the broader public, demand soared as investors greedily bought up tokens in spite of glitches that threatened to derail the sale early on. By the end of its weeks-long token sale in July, Tezos had sold more than $230 million.

Now, Tezos is proving that authorities in the US and China were on to something when they decided to crack down on the ICO market, which has become a cesspool of...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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