Posts Tagged ‘Shanghai Composite Index’

Xie: Chinese stocks are a Ponzi scheme

Xie: Chinese stocks are a Ponzi scheme

Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made

Former Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist Andy Xie says the Chinese stock market is still in "deep bubble territory", noting that the Shanghai Composite Index would have to fall another 25 percent to get to fair value.

 



He also noted that real estate sales account for 10 percent of GDP and half of all local government revenue. Earlier today, China’s stock market fell seven percent, the sharpest decline since June 2008, and is now down about 23 percent from the early-August peak.

 


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ANOTHER CHINA STOCK BUBBLE?

ANOTHER CHINA STOCK BUBBLE?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Interesting reading here from BNP on the potential of another Chinese stock market crash.  Their approach is interesting as they come to their conclusions using components of the same theories that make up my own work.  I, however, do not believe the Chinese market is in for a crash, but rather believe the “long decay” scenario is far more likely.  It would be highly unusual for two bubbles to form in the same market in such a short period of time – especially when the fundamentals and psychology of the market’s participants don’t justify it.  In fact, it could be called an anomaly since it has never happened before.   Not to mention the fact that we are nowhere near the stampeding euphoric sentiment that always accompanies a bubble:

Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence interval).
 


China_20Bubble

It must be noted that the model gives no indication on what happens after the critical point. It tells us the rise will end, but that might be with a crash or a slow decay.

By the very nature of the model, this result gives us two conclusions. Firstly, there exists a bubble in the Shanghai Composite Index. Secondly, it will reach a critical level around July 17-27, 2009. This will lead to a change in regime which may be a crash or a more gently bubble deflation. An extended version of this note, with a careful assessment of the confidence intervals and comparisons with the previous Chinese bubble ending in Oct. 2007, will be released soon.

 


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ValueWalk

How To Find Your Best Investment Strategy - Not The One You Expect

By Guest Post. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Are you always searching for a better or the absolute best investment strategy?

Superior investment performance can be attributed to some combination of 3 basic drivers

If so I have good and bad news for you.

It simply doesn’t exist

The bad news is – it doesn’t exist!

The good news is it doesn’t matter, let me explain.

Your best investment strategy

The best investment strategy you will ever find is not...



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Zero Hedge

Traders Scramble To "Explain" Sudden Nasdaq Swoon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After surging in early trading, the Nasdasq - together with various cryptocurrencies - suddenly slumped and dropped as much as 1% from its intraday highs two hours into trading. That's what traders could agree with; where they clearly disagreed, was on the reason for the swoon with everything from the velocity of last week’s rally, this morning’s economic data and the Supreme Court’s decision to hear arguments on the Trump administration’s travel ban and being cited according to Bloomberg....



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Phil's Favorites

The Dynamics of Depletion

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth.


Paul Klee Ghost of a Genius 1922

The Automatic Earth has written many articles on the topic of EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) through the years, there’s a whole chapter on it in the Automatic Earth Primer Guide 2017 that Nicole assembled recently, which contains 17 different articles.

Still, since EROEI is the most important energy issue there is at present, and not the price of oil or some new gas find or a set of windmills or solar panels or thorium, it can’t hurt to repeat it once again, in someone else’s words and from someone else ...



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Insider Scoop

The Market In 5 Minutes

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SPY Baltic Intimidation Tactics: US Jet Buzzes Plane Carrying Russian Defense Minister; Russian Jet Intercepts US Spy Plane Insurance Providers Cozy Up To ETFs ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Courtesy of Electra D. Paskett, The Ohio State University

Early in our careers, few of us imagined a vaccine could one day prevent cancer. Now there is a vaccine that keeps the risk of developing six Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers at bay, but adoption of it has been slow and surprising low.

Although it’s been available for more than a decade, as of 2014 only 40 percent of girls had received the full three doses of the vaccine, while only ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Buyer Beware

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Entrepreneurs have a new trick to raise money quickly, and it all takes place online, free from the constraints of banks and regulators. As Axios reports, since the beginning of 2017, 65 startups have raised $522 million using initial coin offerings — trading a digital coin (essentially an investment in their company) for a digital currency, like Bitcoin or Ether.

One recent example, as NYT reports, saw Bay Area coders earn $35 million in less than 30 seconds during an online fund-raising event...



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Chart School

Russell 2000 at Rising Support

Courtesy of Declan.

There wasn't much to say about today, but the one index which caught my attention was the Russell 2000. The index caught a bounce in demand at the rising trendline and also did enough to recover the 20-day MA. Traders looking for pullback opportunity could take a look at the Russell 2000. Stops on a loss of 1,397.


The Nasdaq is primed for a move to challenge 6,350. Today's doji marks indecision just below 6,250 but if it can push above this price level it would likely trigger a spate of short covering. Technicals hav...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 19th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

Frontier laid off state Senate president after broadband vote it didn't like

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Speaking of FTR – not nice people…

Frontier laid off state Senate president after broadband vote it didn’t like

By Arstechnica.com

Broadband provider Frontier Communications recently laid off the West Virginia state Senate president after a vote the company didn't like—and yes, you read that correctly.

West Virginia does not have a full-time legislature, and state lawmakers can supplement their part-time government salaries ($20,000 a year,&...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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