Markets often send out false signals, though some seem to do it more than others. Indeed, one lesson we’ve learned during the past few years is how wrong equity markets can be in comparison to their fixed-income brethren. The best example, of course, was when stocks surged to new highs in the fall of 2007 while almost every part of the credit universe was convulsing or collapsing. Given what Reuters has to say in the following report, "Junk Bond Spreads Signal Slow Economic Recovery," and the euporia percolating through share prices lately, it seems to me that we are seeing the same old same old.
The sanguine view of stock investors about the U.S. economy is not borne out by the credit market, which is signaling that a recovery from the longest downturn in decades may be painfully slow.
Risks of continued high defaults and massive refinancing needs of the most precarious corporate borrowers are keeping credit spreads high, especially on high-yield bonds, signaling the economy is not out of the woods.
"We are still priced for near recession at the moment and certainly notably below average growth," said Christopher Garman, founder of Garman Research in Orinda, California. High-yield bond spreads are reflecting about a 9 percent default rate, "which would put economic growth around zero to 1 percent," he said.
Spreads would typically have to reflect a default rate more within the normal range of about 5 percent to signal an economy growing more than about 1.5 percent, Garman said.
Economists polled by Reuters last week said the economy is recovering more strongly than previously expected but next year will be lackluster and risks of a double-dip downturn remain. After shrinking by 1 percent in the second quarter on an annualized basis, U.S. gross domestic product will grow 2.4 percent in the current quarter, according to a poll of about 70 economists.
High unemployment and consumer debt will hamstring the economy after an initial rebound, however, respondents said, and they still see a 25 percent chance of a double-dip recession.
SPREADS PREFIGURED MEGA-DEFAULTS
Though not considered a traditional economic indicator, corporate bond spreads typically widen ahead of recessions and rising defaults as investors demand more yield for increased risk. Widening spreads also brake the economy as they
“We’ve got to face it. Politics have entered a new stage, the television stage. Instead of long-winded public debates, the people want capsule slogans—‘Time for a change’—‘The mess in Washington’—‘More bang for a buck’—punch lines and glamour.”— A Face in the Crowd (19...
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Bridgewater Associates is in the news again and yet again not for the reasons Ray Dalio and crew would prefer. The latest is a sexual harassment allegation from a Christopher Tarui. Tarui is described as a “34-year-old adviser to large institutional investors in Bridgewater” and he claims that a male supervisor harassed him. Specifically:
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On one occasion, he said, his supervisor confided in him that he had an ...
US equity indexes traded in a narrow range today and finished mixed ahead of Fed Wednesday. Our benchmark S&P 500 exhibited a bit of volatility in the first 90 minutes, hitting its intraday high and low about an hour apart. The index then struggled with yesterday's closing price during the lunch hour and again at the close. It managed to eke out a 0.03% gain as we move toward tomorrow's FOMC minutes and rate decision, expect by most analysts to remain unchanged.
The yield on the 10-year closed at 1.57%, down one basis point from the previous session.
Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.
Here is a daily chart of the index. We've highlighted the unusually narrow pattern over the past nine sessions, b...
The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, deferring any possible increase until September or December, as policymakers hold out for more evidence of a pickup in inflation.
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After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.
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Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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