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Posts Tagged ‘society’

Is Obama Gorbachev?

Powerful read, as always but more so, by Jim Kunstler. - Ilene  

Gorbachev portraitIs Obama Gorbachev?

Courtesy of James Howard Kunstler

    The eulogy for Walter Cronkite as "the most trusted man in America" on the CBS "Sixty Minutes" show said a lot about the condition of this nation — though it did not signify what CBS thought it did.  It wasn’t about the death of one hugely esteemed individual; it was about the broad institutional failure of TV news in general and the current grievous loss of legitimacy and authority in shaping a national consensus of reality.  Watching the old clips of Cronkite delivering the evening news years ago, one couldn’t help weighing the contrast with the current spectacle of snide, combative, overbearing idiocy acted out nightly by the likes of Kudlow, Olberman, Kneale, O’Reilly, Matthews, and Dobbs as they shout down their invited guest commentators, pander to their demographic, and diss their rivals for ratings.
      It was instructive to notice that the program following "Sixty Minutes" — in the supreme weekly slot of 8p.m. Sunday — was a childish and stupid "reality" show called "Big Brother."  This said even more about the craven quality of the people currently running CBS. It was also a useful lesson in the diminishing returns of technology as applied to television, since it should now be obvious that the expansion of cable broadcasting since the heyday of the "big three" networks has led only to the mass replication of video garbage rather than a banquet of culture, as first touted. 
Declaration_independence      It should remind us more generally that when a society’s operations become broadly fraudulent and unreal, authority and legitimacy wither.  This is analogous to the position Barack Obama now finds himself in.  He was elected as the politician most trusted in America to change the fraudulent and unreal operations of the US government.  Don’t bother protesting that all politics is necessarily unreal and fraudulent. If it were so, you’d have to argue that the US Constitution was wholly a fraud, as well as Madison, Jefferson, Hamilton and the rest. It only has strong tendencies in that direction. (The Declaration of Independence was itself a direct strike against the fraud and unreality of British royal governance in America.)
     As president, Barack Obama is faced with the essential fraudulence and unreality of the US economy.  Notice that, as ominous as they are, the wars in iraq and Afghanistan have generated only…
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“Trumped by Darwin?”

Courtesy of Mark Thoma at Economist’s View

"Trumped by Darwin?"

elk, Darwin, natural selectionRobert Frank returns to the point he made in Alpha Markets, i.e. that Charles Darwin provides the "true intellectual foundation" for economics. Though the example this time is male elk rather than bull elephant seals, the central point - and it’s one worth giving more thought to - is that "Individual and group interests are almost always in conflict when rewards to individuals depend on relative performance." In these situations, which occur frequently in economic and social relationships, the assumption in neoclassical economic models that the maximization of self-interest is consistent with the maximization of social interest does not hold, and failure to recognize this has " undermined regulatory efforts … causing considerable harm to us all":

The Invisible Hand, Trumped by Darwin?, by Robert Frank, Commentary, NY Times: If asked to identify the intellectual founder of their discipline, most economists today would probably cite Adam Smith. But that will change. … Charles Darwin … tracks economic reality much more closely. …

Smith’s basic idea was that business owners … have powerful incentives to introduce improved product designs and cost-saving innovations. These moves bolster innovators’ profits in the short term. But rivals respond by adopting the same innovations, and the resulting competition gradually drives down prices and profits. In the end, Smith argued, consumers reap all the gains.Charles Darwin

The central theme of Darwin’s narrative was that competition favors traits and behavior according to how they affect the success of individuals, not species or other groups. As in Smith’s account, traits that enhance individual fitness sometimes promote group interests. For example, a mutation for keener eyesight in hawks benefits not only any individual hawk that bears it, but also makes hawks more likely to prosper as a species.

In other cases, however, traits that help individuals are harmful to larger groups. For instance, a mutation for larger antlers served the reproductive interests of an individual male elk, because it helped him prevail in battles … for access to mates. But as this mutation spread, it started an arms race that made life more hazardous for male elk over all. The antlers of male elk can now span five feet or more. And despite their utility in battle, they often become a fatal handicap when predators pursue males into dense woods.

In Darwin’s framework, then,… [c]ompetition, to be sure, sometimes guides individual behavior in ways that benefit society as…
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Phil's Favorites

BLS Seasonal Adjustments Gone Haywire; 11% Unemployment Coming by May?

BLS Seasonal Adjustments Gone Haywire; 11% Unemployment Coming by May?

Courtesy of Mish

Over the weekend I received an email from Irishscot2, a poster on MarketWatch, regarding seasonal adjustments to the unemployment rate. Hi Mish

I believe the seasonal adjustment is no longer valid given that anticipated job creation down the road has not and will not be happening. I expect late spring to reverse the January effect heading into the elections. If so, a perfect political storm brewing because of their models!

Irishscot2

Irishscot2 compared the unadjusted numbers to the seasonally adjusted numbers on a percentage basis. I could not tell much from the raw data he sent, so I asked for his spreadsheet and he gracious...



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Chart School

THE MARKET IS FOLLOWING A SCRIPT YOU CAN PROFIT FROM

THE MARKET IS FOLLOWING A SCRIPT YOU CAN PROFIT FROM 

Courtesy of David Grandey

All About Trends

 

Is The Market Following A Script? If you ask Elliott it is. From Our Recent Blog: "There is also a good possibility that the whole move down off the January highs traces out ABCDE (5 Waves down before all said and done). But we'll take it a step at a time." The S&P 500 chart below has more of a 3 waves (abc) look to it just like we talked about in advance to be on the lookout for. The only problem was it's prime entry took place in the form of a gap and within minutes traced out the bulk of Thursday's move. But still it's all about trends and it's locked in a downtrend channel. One look at last week's action in the OTC Composite below (remember this area of the...

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Trading Goddess

Pivotfarm Support and Resistance Levels 9th February 2009

After dropping from the 1063.75-1064.25 PowerZone just before stocks opened on Monday, the ES was sold on the open and fell to the 1056.25-1055.50 PowerZone.
As stated last night: "if a pullback can hold the
initial support, the up-trends will remain intact and
the market should head back up."
That was reversed and after getting over the 1063.50-1064.00 area the move continued to a 1068.50 high. After a small dip, a 123 top set up from 1068.00 and the ES dropped to the new support at 1064.00-1063.50 zone. A bounce failed at 1067.00 and that was it for the upside. The market rolled over and all of the bounces failed as the ES went trend-down to 1053.00 at the 4pm close for stocks.
The early rally off of a good support area was sold on Monday, and for the second half of the day it was all down hill. After the Friday run-up, that was not impressive for a follow-up. The market is back into oversold status, but for now it looks lik...

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Oxen Group Trades

The Oxen Report: Unemployment Numbers to Boost Market and Continue Rally?

Hello Oxen Report Readers,

Yesterday, I recommended an more from David

The Options Report

By Andrew Wilkinson


Bank of America Bears Buy Puts

Today’s tickers: BAC, PBR, F, FXI, NXY, KFT, DELL & HPQ

BAC – Bank of America Corp. – Bearish option traders purchased put options on Bank of America today with shares of the firm trading 3% lower to $14.52. The number of put options purchased at the March $14 strike price surpassed existing open interest at that strike, suggesting many investors are bracing for continued near-term share price erosion. Approximately 33,000 puts were purchased for an average premium of $0.59 apiece at the March $14 strike. Investors picking up the put options perhaps anticipate B of A’s share price could slip beneath the effective breakeven point on the trade at $13.41 ahead of March expiration. The 12% increase in the reading of options implied volatility on Bank of America to 43.74% today points to increased fluctuation in the...



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Insider Zone


INSIDER BUYING & SELLING REMAINS BEARISH

INSIDER BUYING & SELLING REMAINS BEARISH

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

After a brief respite last week, insider buying and selling trends returned to their regularly scheduled bearishness.  The recent market dip has not attracted many buyers to the market as total insider buying for the latest week totaled just $10.2MM.   Total selling surged to $490MM from last week’s reading of $250.1MM.

The insider selling and buying trends continue to reflect the low level of confidence that insiders have in the future performance of their own shares.  This has been best reflected in the continuing weak trends in the labor markets and the...


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OpTrader


Swing trading portfolio - week of February 8th, 2010

This post is for live trades and daily comments. 

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here

- Optrader

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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