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After the bell, Update

After the bell, Update

Courtesy of Michael Eckert at EW trends and charts

$SPX chart

Welcome to my nightmare, this is one of the most confusing one day charts I have looked at in quite a while. From afar, the larger counts look like a 4th wave, but the micro count is a REAL mess, almost like an on going "B", or "X" wave, the triangle I have labeled as a-b-c-d-e, breaks the first rule, wave "A", is a five count, we need a 3-3-3-3-3 count for the triangle to be valid.

A simple zig-zag is still possible, but wave "C" needs to be the largest for that count to work.

The other possibility is that we have had a top put in, I have seen numerous counts in the last 24 hours that have a five wave count completed, the micro-counts in them might be off, but at this point I am keeping that option on the table until the impulse count from 1037.63 is invalidated.

One other option, which I had a chart up of yesterday on my public list, is this whole rally counting out as an a-b-c-x-a-b-c, making wave b of B, of P2, an expanding triangle with the a of B ending at 979. This could really surprise the bears if we start heading down to make new lows, then quickly reverse in wave "C" up.

****

See Michael’s longer term chart (below) for the bigger picture:

Michael:  P stands for primary wave.  As soon as P2 ends, we will be in P3, down. P2 is the wave from 666 to the present, P1 was the wave from late ’07, till this year when it finished at 666.  Ilene, I am very-very bearish, as soon as this rally is over we will be testing the lows of the year, and even quite possibily breaking them, wave 3′s are the mother of all waves, very violent and swift.

 

 

 


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Sunday morning observations

Welcome to Michael Eckert!  Michael posts excellent charts plus accompanying analysis at his new site: EW trends and charts.  He combines Elliot Wave Theory with Classic TA.  For intra-day updates, click here). - Ilene

Sunday morning observations

Courtesy of Michael at EW trends and charts

Not sure if that is any better then Monday morning quarterbacking. I brought this one out of my vault of super-secret and private stash of charts that only Anchak has laid eyes on. This one came about from the both of us playing with different indicators and tweaking them to get the most out of them. The one that caught my eye this morning was the RSI, adjusted just right, it has been a good and reliable indicator for showing trend changes in the SPX, by following the changes of trends in itself. Unbelievable how over-bought it has gotten in the last month, and now showing a definite trend change to the down side. When you couple the RSI with the MACD, and the Histogram, things are starting to point to a change coming soon, if it has not already changed. The Histogram has been in a negative divergence for the last month, and has its first red shoot, breaking below zero last week, while at the same time the MACD has also turned to the downside and crossed over, peaking last week. The MACD, a lagging indicator (used together with the histogram it can be used as a leading indicator) also showing a change is taking place. I am not ready to officially call that the top, I will leave it to you to make your own decisions. I am just sharing my Sunday morning thoughts with you. Hope you are enjoying your week-end!!
PS.-I moved this chart to the public list if you are interested in following it :)

$SPX chart

[click on chart for larger picture]

Monday morning follow-up:

$SPX

[clicking on chart will take you to another page with a larger image of the chart about half-way down and a series of other charts by Michael]

 


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Why 880 in SPX is So Important

Why 880 in SPX is So Important

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I wanted to do a quick update and highlight the 60-minute SP500 intraday chart from the March lows to the June highs and overlay four Fibonacci grids over this move to uncover the hidden confluence zones.  Doing so allows us to see why the recent break beneath 880 is perhaps very significant.

SPX chart
(Click image for full-size graph)

Without getting too complex, I’ve drawn four Fibonacci Retracement grids from the March lows to the June 11th highs using the classic methods.

I’m using the standard 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% retracements, but also adding the lesser-known 23.6% and 78.6% retracements as well.  I drew vertical lines to show where the grids originated.

The main point is that three of the four grids ‘converge’ at the 890 level (I’ve highlighted it).  Notice how this area provided very strong support (in fact, it helped create the current “Head and Shoulders” since May.

We have now officially broken this confluence level, as well as the Neckline on the Head and Shoulders formation – that’s clearly a bearish sign.

The next Fibonacci confluence comes in around 850 and the one below that overlaps at 820.

You can save and print this grid off as a reference for possible turning points (pausing zones for retracements) should we continue lower as expected.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

 


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SPX Chart Updates

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An immense sensibility

Courtesy of Allan

Experience is never limited, and it is never complete; it is an immense sensibility, a kind of huge spider-web of the finest silken threads suspended in the chamber of consciousness, and catching every air-borne particle in its tissue.

Henry James

120-minute SPX chart
The 120-minute SPX chart above shows a clustering of Wave 5′s (various degrees), followed by a breakdown of the Up-Trend Regression Channels and a Blue Wave Sell Signal, all taking place since last’s Thursday’s close.
 

 

The above chart the SPX pans out to the Daily perspective and reveals a rounding top that is just barely holding onto an 11-day-old Blue Wave Buy Signal that did flip to Short on an Intraday basis today, before those mysterious institutional buy programs again propped up a weakening close.

Weekly chart, S&P
Finally, the above is a Weekly chart that is about as long in the tooth as it can be.

I want that Weekly trend regression channel broken to the downside and/or a Blue Wave Sell Signal before committing a total and immense sensibility to the Short side of this market.
 

 


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Phil's Favorites

Morning News, 4-18-15

From Around the Web:

Not All Macro Models Failed to Predict Crisis (MultiplierEffect)

Noah Smith has a post on the failure of macro theory to predict the crisis. He concedes that DSGE models did very badly on this score, but, he continues, “There are no other models out there that did forecast the crisis” and there is nobetter alternative. (More)

6 Illegal Cocktails Banned in the U.S. and the United Kingdom (HuffingtonPost...



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Zero Hedge

Dollar Bulls Bend, but Don't Break

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Marc To Market.

The US dollar fell against the major currencies and many emerging market currencies last week. Punished by disappointing data, it threatened to breakout of ranges that have confined it. However, the third consecutive upside surprises on core CPI helped the greenback stabilize ahead of the weekend. The price action reinforces our sense that after trending for several months, the dollar has entered a consolidative phase. Trading is choppy, and positioning is still stretched, but the divergence of monetary policy trajectories will likely prevent sharp dollar losses. 

The Canadian dollar may be an exception.  The combination of a less dovish central bank, higher than expected inflation and stronger than expected...



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Chart School

Richard Wyckoff Stock Position Sheet - PART 2

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Richard Wyckoff used this tool for over 20 years, of course as readtheticker.com is a fan website of Richard Wyckoff here is our reproduction of his work.More from RTT Tv

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net Investing Quote...

..“The only way you get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes…. The examination of a losing trade is tortuous but necessary to ensure that it will not happen again.”..Jesse Livermo...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500 vulnerable to a decline says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

When it comes to investing in the stock market, do you feel leadership can be important. If so, you might want to pay attention to price action from a key global stock index. China has been in the news for hot stock market performance that past couple of months. When it comes to the past couple of years, Germany has been stronger than China and the S&P 500. In the past two years the DAX index has gained 18% more than the S&P 500, which is a 60% greater return.

The chart below looks at conditions in the DAX at this time and what message is coming from this index.

...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Earnings and GDP temporarily take investor spotlight off the Fed

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

As we get into the heart of earnings season and anticipate the GDP report for Q1, the investor spotlight has been taken off the Federal Reserve and timing of its first interest rate hike, at least temporarily. Even though Q1 economic growth will undoubtedly look weak, the future remains bright for the U.S economy – even though many multinationals will struggle with top-line growth due to the strong dollar – and any near-term selloff resulting from weak economic or earnings news should be bought yet again in expectation of better results for the balance of the year. High sector correlations remain a concern, reflectin...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 13th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

SkyNet Is Almost Sentient: HFTs To Start Trading Bitcoin

SkyNet Is Almost Sentient: HFTs To Start Trading Bitcoin

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As noted earlier, with equities now a barren wasteland of volume (and liquidity), the last remaining HFT master (of whale order frontrunning) has been forced to go to those asset classes where organic flow is still abundant such as FX, courtesy of central banks engaged in global currency wars. However, HFTs rea...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble likes the iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY), but only if it breaks out of a pennant pattern. This South Korean equities ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 by 60% since 2011.

You're probably familiar with its largest holding, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, and at least several other represented companies such as Hyundai Motor Co and Kia Motors Corp.

...



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Mapping The Market

S&P 500 Leverage and Hedges Options - Part 2

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard.

In my last post (Part 1 of this article), I looked at alternative ETFs that could be used as hedges against the corrections that we have seen during that long 2 year bull run. Looking at the results, it seems that for short (less than a month) corrections, a VIX ETF like VXX could actually be a viable candidate to hedge or speculate on the way down. Another alternative ETF was TMF, a long Treasuries ETF which banks on the fact that when markets go down, money tends to pack into treasuries viewed as safe instruments. In some cases, TMF even outperformed the usual hedging instruments like leveraged ETFs. There could of course be other factors at play since some of 2014 corrections were related to geopolitical events which are certain...

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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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