Posts Tagged ‘SPX chart’

After the bell, Update

After the bell, Update

Courtesy of Michael Eckert at EW trends and charts

$SPX chart

Welcome to my nightmare, this is one of the most confusing one day charts I have looked at in quite a while. From afar, the larger counts look like a 4th wave, but the micro count is a REAL mess, almost like an on going "B", or "X" wave, the triangle I have labeled as a-b-c-d-e, breaks the first rule, wave "A", is a five count, we need a 3-3-3-3-3 count for the triangle to be valid.

A simple zig-zag is still possible, but wave "C" needs to be the largest for that count to work.

The other possibility is that we have had a top put in, I have seen numerous counts in the last 24 hours that have a five wave count completed, the micro-counts in them might be off, but at this point I am keeping that option on the table until the impulse count from 1037.63 is invalidated.

One other option, which I had a chart up of yesterday on my public list, is this whole rally counting out as an a-b-c-x-a-b-c, making wave b of B, of P2, an expanding triangle with the a of B ending at 979. This could really surprise the bears if we start heading down to make new lows, then quickly reverse in wave "C" up.

****

See Michael’s longer term chart (below) for the bigger picture:

Michael:  P stands for primary wave.  As soon as P2 ends, we will be in P3, down. P2 is the wave from 666 to the present, P1 was the wave from late ’07, till this year when it finished at 666.  Ilene, I am very-very bearish, as soon as this rally is over we will be testing the lows of the year, and even quite possibily breaking them, wave 3′s are the mother of all waves, very violent and swift.

 

 

 


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Sunday morning observations

Welcome to Michael Eckert!  Michael posts excellent charts plus accompanying analysis at his new site: EW trends and charts.  He combines Elliot Wave Theory with Classic TA.  For intra-day updates, click here). - Ilene

Sunday morning observations

Courtesy of Michael at EW trends and charts

Not sure if that is any better then Monday morning quarterbacking. I brought this one out of my vault of super-secret and private stash of charts that only Anchak has laid eyes on. This one came about from the both of us playing with different indicators and tweaking them to get the most out of them. The one that caught my eye this morning was the RSI, adjusted just right, it has been a good and reliable indicator for showing trend changes in the SPX, by following the changes of trends in itself. Unbelievable how over-bought it has gotten in the last month, and now showing a definite trend change to the down side. When you couple the RSI with the MACD, and the Histogram, things are starting to point to a change coming soon, if it has not already changed. The Histogram has been in a negative divergence for the last month, and has its first red shoot, breaking below zero last week, while at the same time the MACD has also turned to the downside and crossed over, peaking last week. The MACD, a lagging indicator (used together with the histogram it can be used as a leading indicator) also showing a change is taking place. I am not ready to officially call that the top, I will leave it to you to make your own decisions. I am just sharing my Sunday morning thoughts with you. Hope you are enjoying your week-end!!
PS.-I moved this chart to the public list if you are interested in following it :)

$SPX chart

[click on chart for larger picture]

Monday morning follow-up:

$SPX

[clicking on chart will take you to another page with a larger image of the chart about half-way down and a series of other charts by Michael]

 


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Why 880 in SPX is So Important

Why 880 in SPX is So Important

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I wanted to do a quick update and highlight the 60-minute SP500 intraday chart from the March lows to the June highs and overlay four Fibonacci grids over this move to uncover the hidden confluence zones.  Doing so allows us to see why the recent break beneath 880 is perhaps very significant.

SPX chart
(Click image for full-size graph)

Without getting too complex, I’ve drawn four Fibonacci Retracement grids from the March lows to the June 11th highs using the classic methods.

I’m using the standard 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% retracements, but also adding the lesser-known 23.6% and 78.6% retracements as well.  I drew vertical lines to show where the grids originated.

The main point is that three of the four grids ‘converge’ at the 890 level (I’ve highlighted it).  Notice how this area provided very strong support (in fact, it helped create the current “Head and Shoulders” since May.

We have now officially broken this confluence level, as well as the Neckline on the Head and Shoulders formation – that’s clearly a bearish sign.

The next Fibonacci confluence comes in around 850 and the one below that overlaps at 820.

You can save and print this grid off as a reference for possible turning points (pausing zones for retracements) should we continue lower as expected.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

 


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SPX Chart Updates

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An immense sensibility

Courtesy of Allan

Experience is never limited, and it is never complete; it is an immense sensibility, a kind of huge spider-web of the finest silken threads suspended in the chamber of consciousness, and catching every air-borne particle in its tissue.

Henry James

120-minute SPX chart
The 120-minute SPX chart above shows a clustering of Wave 5′s (various degrees), followed by a breakdown of the Up-Trend Regression Channels and a Blue Wave Sell Signal, all taking place since last’s Thursday’s close.
 

 

The above chart the SPX pans out to the Daily perspective and reveals a rounding top that is just barely holding onto an 11-day-old Blue Wave Buy Signal that did flip to Short on an Intraday basis today, before those mysterious institutional buy programs again propped up a weakening close.

Weekly chart, S&P
Finally, the above is a Weekly chart that is about as long in the tooth as it can be.

I want that Weekly trend regression channel broken to the downside and/or a Blue Wave Sell Signal before committing a total and immense sensibility to the Short side of this market.
 

 


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Phil's Favorites

Are Hedge Funds Worth More Than Kindergartens?

 

Are Hedge Funds Worth More Than Kindergartens?

Courtesy of 

Erroneous Assumptions

“The top 25 hedge fund managers made more than all the kindergarten teachers in the country,” declared President Obama in a discussion of poverty at Georgetown University. Calling them “society’s lottery winners,” he proposed to hike their taxes.

Predictably, battle lines have been formed between two polarized sides. One side—let’s call them the Gauche for convenience’s sake—is unhappy with the pay disparity. CBS ...



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Zero Hedge

Financial Insanity Grips The World

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via Dr.Sircus.com,

Rare is the person who is a realist. We collectively live in a world of pretend and extend. Every one of us wants our present civilization to continue, though for countless millions the world has already turned upside down as unemployment has soared and war and terrorism proliferate. The very structure of life in our world is threatened because madmen have undermined the financial system through the creation of debt instead of wealth. We have collectively borrowed against our children’s future until their very future is in doubt.

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistan...



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Chart School

STTG Market Recap May 27, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

Wednesday’s action was almost a 180 degree turn from Tuesday’s with the S&P 500 up 0.92% and the NASDAQ 1.47%.  Sone vague belief in (yet another) resolution in Greece seemed to be the catalyst.   Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on Wednesday the negotiations are on the “final stretch” towards a positive deal, Reuters reported.   Later in the day, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said there was not much progress in the Greek debt talks and he was surprised by the upbeat tone from some Greek government officials.  Athens must make a 300 million euro payment to the International Monetary Fund on June 5, ahead of several other payments due to the IMF later in the month, for a total of 1.6 billion euros.

We’ll see if yesterday’s move was the head fake or today’s was shortly.

...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Super strong Health care ETF near another breakout!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE

When one looks back over the past year, Health Care ETF (XLV) has been a good place to be. The above table looks at the 9 key sectors of the S&P 500, which reflects that XLV has done really well, grabbing the #1 spot over this time frame. Year-To-Date, XLV remains in the top spot as well.

Can this hot performance continue? Check out the pattern XLV has been forming the past few months

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Over the past 90-days, XLV remains at the top spot as well, up a little over 2...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks provide a tepid breakout as Fed greases the skids. So now what?

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Early last week, stocks broke out, with the S&P 500 setting a new high with blue skies overhead. But then the market basically flat-lined for the rest of the week as bulls just couldn’t gather the fuel and conviction to take prices higher. In fact, the technical picture now has turned a bit defensive, at least for the short term, thus joining what has been a neutral-to-defensive tilt to our fundamentals-based Outlook rankings.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the t...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



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Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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