by Chart School - August 26th, 2009 12:02 am
Courtesy of Michael Eckert at EW trends and charts
Welcome to my nightmare, this is one of the most confusing one day charts I have looked at in quite a while. From afar, the larger counts look like a 4th wave, but the micro count is a REAL mess, almost like an on going "B", or "X" wave, the triangle I have labeled as a-b-c-d-e, breaks the first rule, wave "A", is a five count, we need a 3-3-3-3-3 count for the triangle to be valid.
A simple zig-zag is still possible, but wave "C" needs to be the largest for that count to work.
The other possibility is that we have had a top put in, I have seen numerous counts in the last 24 hours that have a five wave count completed, the micro-counts in them might be off, but at this point I am keeping that option on the table until the impulse count from 1037.63 is invalidated.
One other option, which I had a chart up of yesterday on my public list, is this whole rally counting out as an a-b-c-x-a-b-c, making wave b of B, of P2, an expanding triangle with the a of B ending at 979. This could really surprise the bears if we start heading down to make new lows, then quickly reverse in wave "C" up.
See Michael’s longer term chart (below) for the bigger picture:
Michael: P stands for primary wave. As soon as P2 ends, we will be in P3, down. P2 is the wave from 666 to the present, P1 was the wave from late ’07, till this year when it finished at 666. Ilene, I am very-very bearish, as soon as this rally is over we will be testing the lows of the year, and even quite possibily breaking them, wave 3′s are the mother of all waves, very violent and swift.
by Chart School - August 17th, 2009 11:29 am
Welcome to Michael Eckert! Michael posts excellent charts plus accompanying analysis at his new site: EW trends and charts. He combines Elliot Wave Theory with Classic TA. For intra-day updates, click here). - Ilene
Courtesy of Michael at EW trends and charts
PS.-I moved this chart to the public list if you are interested in following it
[click on chart for larger picture]
[clicking on chart will take you to another page with a larger image of the chart about half-way down and a series of other charts by Michael]
by ilene - July 8th, 2009 12:49 pm
Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade
I wanted to do a quick update and highlight the 60-minute SP500 intraday chart from the March lows to the June highs and overlay four Fibonacci grids over this move to uncover the hidden confluence zones. Doing so allows us to see why the recent break beneath 880 is perhaps very significant.
Without getting too complex, I’ve drawn four Fibonacci Retracement grids from the March lows to the June 11th highs using the classic methods.
I’m using the standard 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% retracements, but also adding the lesser-known 23.6% and 78.6% retracements as well. I drew vertical lines to show where the grids originated.
The main point is that three of the four grids ‘converge’ at the 890 level (I’ve highlighted it). Notice how this area provided very strong support (in fact, it helped create the current “Head and Shoulders” since May.
We have now officially broken this confluence level, as well as the Neckline on the Head and Shoulders formation – that’s clearly a bearish sign.
The next Fibonacci confluence comes in around 850 and the one below that overlaps at 820.
You can save and print this grid off as a reference for possible turning points (pausing zones for retracements) should we continue lower as expected.
by ilene - June 16th, 2009 1:10 pm
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Courtesy of Allan
Experience is never limited, and it is never complete; it is an immense sensibility, a kind of huge spider-web of the finest silken threads suspended in the chamber of consciousness, and catching every air-borne particle in its tissue.
The 120-minute SPX chart above shows a clustering of Wave 5′s (various degrees), followed by a breakdown of the Up-Trend Regression Channels and a Blue Wave Sell Signal, all taking place since last’s Thursday’s close.
The above chart the SPX pans out to the Daily perspective and reveals a rounding top that is just barely holding onto an 11-day-old Blue Wave Buy Signal that did flip to Short on an Intraday basis today, before those mysterious institutional buy programs again propped up a weakening close.
I want that Weekly trend regression channel broken to the downside and/or a Blue Wave Sell Signal before committing a total and immense sensibility to the Short side of this market.