Posts Tagged ‘SPX chart’

After the bell, Update

After the bell, Update

Courtesy of Michael Eckert at EW trends and charts

$SPX chart

Welcome to my nightmare, this is one of the most confusing one day charts I have looked at in quite a while. From afar, the larger counts look like a 4th wave, but the micro count is a REAL mess, almost like an on going "B", or "X" wave, the triangle I have labeled as a-b-c-d-e, breaks the first rule, wave "A", is a five count, we need a 3-3-3-3-3 count for the triangle to be valid.

A simple zig-zag is still possible, but wave "C" needs to be the largest for that count to work.

The other possibility is that we have had a top put in, I have seen numerous counts in the last 24 hours that have a five wave count completed, the micro-counts in them might be off, but at this point I am keeping that option on the table until the impulse count from 1037.63 is invalidated.

One other option, which I had a chart up of yesterday on my public list, is this whole rally counting out as an a-b-c-x-a-b-c, making wave b of B, of P2, an expanding triangle with the a of B ending at 979. This could really surprise the bears if we start heading down to make new lows, then quickly reverse in wave "C" up.

****

See Michael’s longer term chart (below) for the bigger picture:

Michael:  P stands for primary wave.  As soon as P2 ends, we will be in P3, down. P2 is the wave from 666 to the present, P1 was the wave from late ’07, till this year when it finished at 666.  Ilene, I am very-very bearish, as soon as this rally is over we will be testing the lows of the year, and even quite possibily breaking them, wave 3′s are the mother of all waves, very violent and swift.

 

 

 


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Sunday morning observations

Welcome to Michael Eckert!  Michael posts excellent charts plus accompanying analysis at his new site: EW trends and charts.  He combines Elliot Wave Theory with Classic TA.  For intra-day updates, click here). - Ilene

Sunday morning observations

Courtesy of Michael at EW trends and charts

Not sure if that is any better then Monday morning quarterbacking. I brought this one out of my vault of super-secret and private stash of charts that only Anchak has laid eyes on. This one came about from the both of us playing with different indicators and tweaking them to get the most out of them. The one that caught my eye this morning was the RSI, adjusted just right, it has been a good and reliable indicator for showing trend changes in the SPX, by following the changes of trends in itself. Unbelievable how over-bought it has gotten in the last month, and now showing a definite trend change to the down side. When you couple the RSI with the MACD, and the Histogram, things are starting to point to a change coming soon, if it has not already changed. The Histogram has been in a negative divergence for the last month, and has its first red shoot, breaking below zero last week, while at the same time the MACD has also turned to the downside and crossed over, peaking last week. The MACD, a lagging indicator (used together with the histogram it can be used as a leading indicator) also showing a change is taking place. I am not ready to officially call that the top, I will leave it to you to make your own decisions. I am just sharing my Sunday morning thoughts with you. Hope you are enjoying your week-end!!
PS.-I moved this chart to the public list if you are interested in following it :)

$SPX chart

[click on chart for larger picture]

Monday morning follow-up:

$SPX

[clicking on chart will take you to another page with a larger image of the chart about half-way down and a series of other charts by Michael]

 


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Why 880 in SPX is So Important

Why 880 in SPX is So Important

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I wanted to do a quick update and highlight the 60-minute SP500 intraday chart from the March lows to the June highs and overlay four Fibonacci grids over this move to uncover the hidden confluence zones.  Doing so allows us to see why the recent break beneath 880 is perhaps very significant.

SPX chart
(Click image for full-size graph)

Without getting too complex, I’ve drawn four Fibonacci Retracement grids from the March lows to the June 11th highs using the classic methods.

I’m using the standard 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% retracements, but also adding the lesser-known 23.6% and 78.6% retracements as well.  I drew vertical lines to show where the grids originated.

The main point is that three of the four grids ‘converge’ at the 890 level (I’ve highlighted it).  Notice how this area provided very strong support (in fact, it helped create the current “Head and Shoulders” since May.

We have now officially broken this confluence level, as well as the Neckline on the Head and Shoulders formation – that’s clearly a bearish sign.

The next Fibonacci confluence comes in around 850 and the one below that overlaps at 820.

You can save and print this grid off as a reference for possible turning points (pausing zones for retracements) should we continue lower as expected.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

 


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SPX Chart Updates

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An immense sensibility

Courtesy of Allan

Experience is never limited, and it is never complete; it is an immense sensibility, a kind of huge spider-web of the finest silken threads suspended in the chamber of consciousness, and catching every air-borne particle in its tissue.

Henry James

120-minute SPX chart
The 120-minute SPX chart above shows a clustering of Wave 5′s (various degrees), followed by a breakdown of the Up-Trend Regression Channels and a Blue Wave Sell Signal, all taking place since last’s Thursday’s close.
 

 

The above chart the SPX pans out to the Daily perspective and reveals a rounding top that is just barely holding onto an 11-day-old Blue Wave Buy Signal that did flip to Short on an Intraday basis today, before those mysterious institutional buy programs again propped up a weakening close.

Weekly chart, S&P
Finally, the above is a Weekly chart that is about as long in the tooth as it can be.

I want that Weekly trend regression channel broken to the downside and/or a Blue Wave Sell Signal before committing a total and immense sensibility to the Short side of this market.
 

 


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Zero Hedge

The Case For Brexit

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With the market still strongly disagreeing with the polls over how BREMAIN is a done deal...

TrueSinews' Sean Corrigan explains why in his contrite "case for Brexit"...

‘Dear True Sinews, what are your thoughts on Brexit? Roger Bootle wrote a piece in the Telegraph yesterday suggesting that just because everyone is saying one thing, it doesn’t necessarily follow they are right Curren...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

It hasn't been this bad for US manufacturing since the financial crisis (Business Insider)

The manufacturing recession may not have ended yet.

American companies are 'masking' a $6.6 trillion mountain of debt (Business Insider)

Debt can be a good thing. It gets the wheels of the economy moving.

...



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Phil's Favorites

IMF Demands "Unconditional" Debt Relief for Greece (Mish Says "Prove It")

Courtesy of Mish.

Most political and financial demands are nothing but bluffs or lies.

For example, on May 14, I noted Greece “Demands” Debt Relief, Owes Troika €11+ Billion by July.

That “demand” lasted one week. On May 22, I wrote Despite Depression, Greece Forced to Hike VAT, Add New Taxes.

Today the IMF demanded Europe to Give Greece ‘Unconditional’ D...



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Chart School

Market Recap May 23, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

Monday was a choppy but quiet session with a bout of selling into the close pushing the S&P 500 down 0.21% and the NASDAQ 0.08%.    Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak Friday afternoon, and again on June 6 so markets will wait to see if it’s the normal “dovish” Janet or “hawkish” Janet makes a rare appearance.  Always bet on dove until otherwise proven.

“I think the real focus is on the Fed. With the economic numbers continuing to improve I think the chances of a Fed rate hike continue to grow,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial.   “The market is probably just going to stay within a tight trading range here,” he said.

Indexes remain in tepid condition.

...



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ValueWalk

Bayer Offers to Purchase Monsanto for $62 Billion

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

On Monday, German conglomerate Bayer AG finalized its $62 billion takeover offer for American agrochemical company Monsanto (MON). The acquisition would create the largest agrochemical company in the world. Here is what the sell-side is saying.

Monsanto- Bayer – deals, deals, deals

Jefferies:

At $122/share for Monsanto and no disposals the deal would require BASF to issue equity (Bayer issuing ~25% of the deal value) and would imply a deal ROIC in FY5 of 8.5%, 40bps below their WACC of 8.9% and below the buyback equivalent ROIC of 8.8%. The deal, however, would imply €4.55/share in FCF accretion in FY5 enabling BASF to delever to 0.5x net debt/EBITDA in the same time frame. If they levered back to 1.5x in FY15, we estimate EPS would reach €10.20/share.

…………...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Mining stocks facing triple kiss of resistance test

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The XAU Index is the oldest Gold & Silver mining index in the states, as it started keeping track of Gold & Silver mining stocks in the early 1980’s.

With this index having such a long history, it allows any of us to do pattern analysis going back 30-years. This chart looks at the XAU index over the past 20-years.

Miners have experienced a strong rally so far in...



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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's Weekend M&A Chatter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday May 20 through Sunday May 22, 2016:

Report Yahoo Bid Expected to Bid Only $2B-$3B for Core Business

The Rumor:
Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) and others are expected to bid around $2 billion to $3 billion for Yahoo Inc.'s (NASDAQ: YHOO) core Internet business, according to sources as reported by the Wall Street Journal on Friday. That's about 50% of the previous estimates of $5 billion to $8 billion.

Last week Quicken Loans founder Dan Gilbert, with backi...



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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 16th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Promotions

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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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