Posts Tagged ‘stimulus program’

Oops: “Pulled Forward” Demand Really IS False!

Oops: "Pulled Forward" Demand Really IS False! 

cash for clunkersCourtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

"I told you so"

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) — Chrysler Group LLC, the U.S. automaker run by Fiat SpA, said nationwide industry sales are off 19 percent so far this month after a government purchase- incentive program ended.

“We are going to see harsh reality in September,” Sergio Marchionne, the chief executive officer of Fiat and Chrysler, said at the Frankfurt Motor Show. He described the U.S. industry results as a “disaster.” Fritz Henderson, CEO of General Motors Co., said the market is “very weak” this month.

Disaster eh?

But but but I thought all those "cash for clunkers" buyers were people who wouldn’t have bought a car otherwise?

Looks like that was a load of BS out of the administration…. just like all the other so-called "stimulus" programs.

Just another example of pulling forward demand, which works exactly once per application, but then leaves a gaping, sucking hole where demand would have been in the subsequent months.

PS: Expect them to try some sort of BS similar with the expiring "Home Clunker" $8,000 rebate program that is ending in a couple of months.  The two problems with it are the same as the problems here – the consumer is tapped out and can’t afford to buy (witness the FHA default rates in excess of 20%!) and those who DO buy anyway find themselves in a financial position they cannot really afford and didn’t think through.

In addition you further drain the demand pool and thus when the "stimulus" ends (and all must eventually end) you find yourself with no real buyers left!

All this faux "demand" being generated by the so-called "stimulus" is just doing more damage to the economy – damage that is accruing and will come to the surface with devastating effect.

 


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Zero Hedge

Weekend Reading: Bull Struggles & NIRP

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Wow…things are certainly happening faster than I expected. As January kicked off the new year, I posted my outlook for 2016 in which I discussed why, despite views of Goldman Sachs and many others, interest rates were going lower rather than higher.

With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates on the short-e...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

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Phil's Favorites

Is Anybody NOT Deeper In Debt?

Courtesy of John Rubino.

The New York Federal Reserve just announced that older Americans are carrying more debt than ever before and, believe it or not, spins this as a good thing:

New York Fed Finds Large Increase in Debts Held by Those Over Age 50 (NASDAQ) – Americans in their 50s, 60s and 70s are carrying unprecedented amounts of debt, a shift that reflects both the aging of the baby boomer generation and their greater likelihood of retaining mortgage, auto and student debt at much later ages than previous generations.

The average 65-year-old borrower has 47% more mortgage debt and 29% more auto debt than 65-year-olds had in 2003, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Friday. ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Big test for those that have been wrong, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

In May of last year, the S&P hit a key level and stopped on a dime. We applied Fibonacci tools to the highs in 2007 and the lows in 2009, to the chart above. The 161% Fibonacci extension level came into play in the 2,150 zone last year and when hit at (1), the markets stopped on a dime.

If your tools or adviser has suggested to be long and strong since May of 2015, that advice has been costly.

Our take, “Free advice that is wrong, is expensive!!!”

Below looks at stock i...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The Crowded Trade in Bank Stocks Among Oil-Rich Countries (Bloomberg)

When it comes to the selloff in bank stocks, there’s plenty to blame: credit concern, earnings, negative interest rates, and souring sentiment.

Middle income Americans aren't that worried about the choppy stock market (Business Insider)

Many are worried about what the hemorrhaging stock market could mean going forward for the overall e...



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Chart School

Further Losses But No Breakaway

Courtesy of Declan.

The Asian session had set up for big losses, but markets were able to defend against such losses even if finishing with a lower close.

The S&P tagged the January low, but it's hard to see it holding out if there's another challenge on 1,810.


The Nasdaq was able to register a higher close (although below the prior day's close). It probably did enough to negate what is normally a bearish black candlestick, but bulls won't have any confidence until the bearish channel is broken.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 8th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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ValueWalk

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

 

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

Courtesy of ValueWalk, by  

Throughout the past 30 days of wild volatility, here’s what I didn’t do.

Panic. Worry. Sell.

In fact, the best I did was add to a couple of positions yesterday. The world was already in an uncertain state for the past 3+ years. It’s just that with the market rising, we pushed the issue to the back of our  mind and ignored it.

If you read Howard Marks latest memo, ...



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Digital Currencies

2016 Theme #3: The Rise Of Independent (Non-State) Crypto-Currencies

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith at Of Two Minds

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the rise of non-state, non-central-bank-issued crypto-currencies.

We all know money is created and distributed by governments and central banks. The reason is simple: control the money and you control everything.

The invention of the blockchain and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin have opened the door to non-state, non-central-bank currencies--money that is global and independent of any state or central bank, or indeed, any bank, as crypto-currencies are structurally peer-to-peer, meaning they don't require a bank to function: people can exchange crypto-currencies to pay for goods and services without a bank acting as a clearinghouse for all these transactions.

This doesn't just open t...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: New Year brings new hope after bulls lose traction to close 2015

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Chart via Finviz

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last year, the S&P 500 large caps closed 2015 essentially flat on a total return basis, while the NASDAQ 100 showed a little better performance at +8.3% and the Russell 2000 small caps fell -5.9%. Overall, stocks disappointed even in the face of modest expectations, especially the small caps as market leadership was mostly limited to a handful of large and mega-cap darlings.

Notably, the full year chart for the S&P 500 looks very much like 2011. It got off to a good start, drifted sideways for...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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