Posts Tagged ‘Trade War’

The Road to World War III – The Global Banking Cartel Has One Card Left to Play

The Road to World War III – The Global Banking Cartel Has One Card Left to Play

By David DeGraw (h/t ZH)

The following is Part I to David DeGraw’s new book, “The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III.” This is the second installment to a new seven-part series that we will be posting throughout the next few weeks. You can read the introduction to the book here. To be notified via email of new postings from this series, subscribe here.

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Editor’s Note: The following is Part I to David DeGraw’s new book, “The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III.” This is the second installment to a new seven-part series that we will be posting throughout the next few weeks. You can read the introduction to the book here. To be notified via email of new postings from this series, subscribe here.

I: Economic Imperial Operations

The Road to World War III - The Global Banking Cartel Has One Card Left to PlayWhen we analyze our current crisis, focusing on the past few years of economic activity blinds us to the history and context that are vital to understanding the root cause. What we have been experiencing is not the result of an unforeseen economic crash that appeared out of the blue with the collapse of the housing market. It was certainly not brought on by people who bought homes they couldn’t afford. To frame this crisis around a debate on economic theory misses the point entirely. To even blame it on greedy bankers,…
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The Vanishing American Consumer and the Coming Trade War

The Vanishing American Consumer and the Coming Trade War

Courtesy of Robert Reich 

President Obama has vowed to double U.S. exports within the next five years. That’s because exports are critical for rebooting the American economy. It’s clear American consumers can’t get the economy going on their own. They can’t restart the jobs machine. They’ve run out of money and credit.

It’s not just that one out of four Americans is unemployed or underemployed (working part-time, overqualified, or at a lower wage than before). More significantly, the Great Recession burst the housing bubble that had let American consumers turn their homes into ATMs. Now the cash machines are closed.

So the Administration figures foreign consumers will have to fill the gap.

Problem is, most other economies also relied on American consumers. Remember the trade gap? Americans used to be the world’s biggest and most reliable customers – sucking in high-tech gadgets assembled in China, car parts from Japan, shirts and shoes from Southeast Asia, and precision instruments from Germany.

With American consumers pulling back, these other economies have also been slowing down. Their unemployment is rising.

Last week I attended a conference with global business executives. When I asked them where they expected to find new customers to replace Americans who are pulling back, they all said China and India and quoted me the same number: 800 million new middle-class consumers from these and other fast-developing countries over the next decade.

Yes, but. As of now China and India are still relying on net exports to fuel their growth. Even if you think their middle classes will eventually become so big and rich they can buy everything these nations will be able to produce, that doesn’t mean they’ll also buy what the rest of the world produces. 

Yes, global companies will do wonderfully well. General Motors is well on the way to selling more cars in China than it does in the U.S. But American workers won’t get the jobs, and nor will workers in Europe, Japan, or the rest of the world. GM makes the cars it sells to Chinese consumers in China. 

Meanwhile, the productive capacities of China and India will continue to grow: More workers, more factories, more high-tech equipment, more offices. The buying power of their middle classes will have to expand rapidly just to catch up with what these nations will be able…
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PETTIS: TRADE TENSIONS ARE RISING

PETTIS: TRADE TENSIONS ARE RISING

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Great interview here with Michael Pettis of Peking University.  Mr. Pettis discusses the increasing trade tensions in China and the potential impacts from Europe. Pettis believes the trade tensions between China and the US are increasing the odds of a trade war. Pettis also believes the European sovereign debt crisis is exacerbating the situation. I completely agree.


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The mindset will not change; a depressionary relapse may be coming – European version

The mindset will not change; a depressionary relapse may be coming – European version

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns 

68-1533). Left on River.

In March I wrote an American version of this post which pointed to the bailout culture in America as a major reason I fear a depressionary relapse. American policy makers have shifted private losses onto the government’s books while propping up bankrupt companies in the private sector in order to forestall yet greater economic pain.

The mindset is fixed on re-engineering some semblance of past economic growth. The result has been a return in the US to the status quo ante of low savings, excess consumption, indebted households, and leveraged financial institutions, but with policy options significantly diminished and greater levels of government debt to boot. Clearly, when stimulus is withdrawn, policy makers should expect more severe economic bloodletting.

In Europe, the same bailout mentality is at work. However, the results are likely to be even more disastrous because of the fundamental misunderstanding of economics and financial sector balances amongst the policy elite in Euroland. The public and private sector cannot simultaneously net save unless the Europeans engineer a competitive currency devaluation. Therefore, the Europeans’ newfound fiscal austerity is at odds with the need of the private sector to reduce debt and will likely lead to a collapse in consumer demand and depression or a trade war. What Europe needs is to allow over-indebted nations to default, reducing the political and economic pressure of austerity.

Intra-Eurozone Trade wars

Canton, May 1858. Sale

Let me review how I come to that conclusion. This is a trade issue, first and foremost. The reason the Eurozone exists from an economic standpoint has to do with European interdependence from business trade. The eurozone functions as an internal market much the way the United States does, with the majority of trade occurring inside the region as opposed to externally with non-Eurozone countries.

When the Euro was formed, exchange rates were fixed and a common monetary policy came into being – much as we see for states in the US or provinces in Canada. Of course, monetary policy is not run for specific regions within the zone, but for the zone overall. And this invariably means that the European Central Bank’s monetary policy is geared more to the slow-growth core of Europe than the periphery.

During any business cycle then, current…
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Is Google the Omen of a U.S.-China Trade War?

Is Google the Omen of a U.S.-China Trade War?

Courtesy of TIME, by Bill Powell / Shanghai

Google Stopped Censoring Its Chinese-language Search Engine Google.cn

When Google finally ended the suspense, it did so by stating the obvious. "Figuring out how to make good on our promise to stop censoring search [in China]," wrote David Drummond, the company’s chief legal officer, on the company’s blog last night, "has been hard." For more than two months, ever since its Jan. 12 announcement that it would soon stop censoring its search results in the country with the largest number of Internet users in the world, the California giant was headed for a direct clash with the authorities in Beijing, who have been repeatedly unambiguous in their stance. Censorship is the law of the land in China, and Google had to abide by it or else "suffer the consequences," as an official put it last week.

Google’s decision is to route all of the traffic on its Chinese search engine, Google.cn, to its Hong Kong based site, Google.com.hk. The company has added simplified Chinese characters to the site (Hong Kong Chinese uses traditional characters for reading and writing) and a color-coded list of features (such as shopping, maps, music) which are still available, all of which make it now look "a bit like an eye test," as Shen Liling, a young Shanghai netizen, says. (See pictures of China mourning the potential loss of Google.)

But the practical result was that, for a few hours at least, search results were no longer censored. On Tuesday morning, March 23, in China, netizens could type in "Falun Gong," the banned religious cult, and what popped up was far different than what had come up just the previous night. (Among other things, the official Falun Gong website showed up in search results.) So after nearly four years of doing business in China, Google has lived up to its campaign promise. It is no longer censoring its search results for Web surfers behind China’s Great Firewall. But it took the Chinese government less than 24 hours to start censoring searches itself: a search for "Falun Gong" from the mainland later in the day prompted only a "Web page not available" response.

For that short span, the Hong Kong route was a relatively elegant solution to the dilemma in which the company had found itself. Xinhua, a…
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Phil's Favorites

Climate change and weather extremes: Both heat and cold can kill

 

Climate change and weather extremes: Both heat and cold can kill

Courtesy of Garth HeutelGeorgia State UniversityDavid MolitorUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Nolan MillerUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Extreme cold weather in Atlanta, Ga., on Jan. 3, 2018. ...



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ValueWalk

Exploring Gravitational Waves

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In 2016, US scientists for the first time announced their detection of gravitational waves, ripples in space and time hypothesized by Albert Einstein a century ago. Such a discovery represents a scientific breakthrough, opening the door to an entirely new way of observing the cosmos. In 2017, the Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to three US scientists for the detection of gravitational waves. To better grasp the process of their discovery, CGTN’s Tian Wei spoke to two of them: Rainer Weiss, Emeritus Professor of Physics at MIT and Kip Thorne, Emeritus Professor of Physics at Caltech. Chen Yanbei, Professor of Physics at Caltech, also joined the talk.

mikkehouse / Pixabay...

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Zero Hedge

Stocks Suffer As 10Y Yields Reach 2014 Highs, Curve At Inflection Point

 

Stocks Suffer As 10Y Yields Reach 2014 Highs, Curve At Inflection Point

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Overnight saw 10Y Treasury yields touch 2.64%, topping the post-election peak to its highest since September 2014 (and crossing Jeff Gundlach's "red line" for stock damage). However, the yield curve's bear-steepening may suggest a turning point.

10Y is up almost 30bps since The Fed hiked rates in December...

...

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Insider Scoop

14 Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Forward Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FORD) rose 64.5 percent to $2.04 in pre-market trading after the company reported the acquisition of Intelligent Product Solutions.
  • PLx Pharma Inc (NASDAQ: PLXP) rose 31.2 percent to $8.00 in pre-market trading. Janney Capital initiated coverage on PLx Pharma with a Buy rating and a $14.00 price target.
  • Acorda Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: ACOR) rose 15.4 percent to $28.85 in pre-market trading amid M&A chatter. The...


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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

 

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson, Contrarian Edge

If you invested in the markets circa 1999, it is hard to observe the Bitcoin mania and not experience the feeling that you’ve seen this movie before and know how it will end – in losses and tears. The internet was a great idea that convinced a lot of great minds to invest capital and energy into businesses that have transformed the world – Amazon, eBay, Cisco, PayPal … the list is very long (though in fairness the list of non-survivors is even longer – but they are not here to remind us of their nonexistence).

R...



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Chart School

Short Covering Driving Gains in Semiconductors and Nasdaq 100

Courtesy of Declan.

The Nasdaq 100 breakout cleared channel resistance, the fifth significant breakout in four months. All technicals are posting new near-term highs which also meant the short generated on the tag of the rising channel is negated.


The Semiconductor Index also enjoyed a substantial breakout as short covering drove traders out of their positions. Technicals see an improvement with a relative gain against the Nasdaq 100.

...

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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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