Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

Daily Stock and Options Tips & Updates; Get Our Daily Newsletter Here

Phil...The hundred grand portfolio updates are helpful...Fun ..and have been profitable...really like em... made some nice entries into USB, KEY today... and I better add those FAZ calls tomorrow... Really glad you put that up this morning...

- Becker

Hey Phil, Your HOV suggestion about 3 months ago basically paid for my Philstockworld subscription for years to come. My average cost is about $1.

- Ether

Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!

- Greg

Joined last year and and started profitably trading options thanks to everything I have learned here. THANK YOU!!

- OnWisconsin

Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.

- Ricpar

Hello Phil, Thanks for the heads up on the comming sell off on friday, and the bs job yesterday. your our guiding light!

- Microflux

Thanks, Phil. I really appreciate your sentiment and commitment! Just want to thank you for what you do for all of us.

- JBaker

Phil: That NFLX call was awesome. The speed at which NFLX options decayed was precipitous. The blow out spike that allowed me to double and roll my callers to 190(!) and the ridiculous 170 weeklies @3.50 a day away from Op-Ex. The gains I realized in that trade floored me when I took a long at my portfolio value on Friday. What a great way to start the 3rd Quarter.

- Kinkistyle

Personally I admire and respect you disciplined approach to investing. My style is at the extreme side of aggressive and I have to learn how to be less that way. If I yell " Let it Ride" at my house, no one says a word so I can't use that to temper my behavior. Phil has done a pretty good job of knocking some of my potential moves and as a result, I have increased my portfolio value by almost 25% since late July.

- DoubleD

Phil Thank you very much, I appreciate your help and wisdom.

- CdsdpDean

I have been trading for quite a few years and in good years made about 25%. After joining PSW, I followed closely the PSW strategy and my trading profit for this year is close to 70% to date. For fun, I like to mix in a few "Hail Mary" plays that really worked out well, but overall the simpler Buy/Write strategy, as presented by Phil so often, created the majority of the profit.

- Gel1

Thank God for Phil. A few months ago (April) I didn´t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil´s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio. When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked. Now I am putting on 5:1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water.

- jmm1951

That was a quick double on the DIA calls. trailing stop in place.

- Kwan

Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,

- RMM

Phil/Everyone here/Thank you - What everyone here with their insightful comments (including yourself) has helped me with is that I'm greatly increasing my ability to trade more psychologically neutral, although I've got a ways to go. Two years ago I'd wake up early and my heart would race if futures weren't pointing exactly how I wanted… I've noticed an exponential leap in my discipline skills especially over this past two weeks. The old me would have ran with that trade for profits without even asking. Now I know that there are ALWAYS more trades and that I have PLENTY of options to turn a bad trade even. Also, it's more logical and less emotionally draining which lets me focus my faculties on my wife, college, my job, and studying for the ol' Series 7. Would it be safe to say that one of the most important skills to develop is the ability to adjust? I'd love to get to the point where I can look at a bracket and know, for example, what I need to sell for cover in what month in order to get my desired results. Both COF and my past DMM venture have been excellent learning experiences. Thanks, everyone. I look forward to further lessons.

- Skasiah

Oxen (directly) and Wilkinson (indirectly) are making me a great day trader! Props to Andrew for another little nugget last night: HIG. $20 Dec calls paid 6% quickly this morning. And helloooo STJ - a few days, but nice pick nonetheless - esp with early cover premium.

- Dstillwe

BTW Phil, I wanted to relate a conversation I had with my business partner yesterday. I told him that I have been much more relaxed about my investments ever since I joined your site. It's funny how a 15-20% cushion does to your nerves. My returns have increased dramatically and my risk diminished. Many thanks for the guidance and patience. Good thing I am doing better financially as you might have increased my life expectancy as well!

- StJeanluc

Phil, thanks for the call on the SKF puts earlier, I'm riding that horsie downhill right now, giddyup!

- MrMocha

100KP dividend plays - FYI, I'm loving them...thanks, Phil!!! Including the $0.848/share dividend, I am up 100% on my $2.38 net entry on LYG...that's pretty cool!

- SSDirk

I picked up one of your recommended Gold plays, the July ABX 30s and sold the Feb 35s, which are now mostly intrinsic value. Is it time to roll these to the March 37.50s, or should I wait this spike out?

- Bill Hoffman

You guys gotta give it to phil–the voice of reason yesterday, last nite and this morning.

- Corleone

Hey Phil - writing to thank you! First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable! I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.

- Bcfla

Simply the best blogger with the greatest group of members a person could surround himself with on trading day. I've been trading for quite some time now and the insights & suggestions offered by Phil and the members keep me on a continuous learning cycle.

- DDay

GLD I took out my callers and rolled down my longs this morning, woo hoo!

- Ephmen85

Dear Phil, I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership. It is hard for me to follow all evening as I am in Tokyo but I can join you at the beginning of the market and read the next day.

- Tokyolife

Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !

- Gel1

Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

- dclark41

Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

- Jromeha

Market manipulation…. One of the things I've gained from this site is the concept of market manipulation. I never thought it was so prevalent, but now I know it is. I actually consider its effect when I make trades. Several days ago, when AAPL was moving toward 220 I sold 210 calls. My reasoning was that they will probably pin this month at 210. They came in big time as the stock moved ever closer to 210. I agree with Phil's comment that one of the things we need to do is find out what they are manipulating, and how, and hitch a ride. They are doing this with several equities. I've actually seen one article describing several equities that were being manipulated to pin at expiration each month, and describing how it was done, and of course Phil has described it well. In some ways it's easier to figure this out than it is a ‘normal' market behavior, and thus easier to make money in certain equities.

- Iflantheman

Thanks for your thoughts against buying BP ahead of earnings (yesterdays' member comments). It announced a loss of $3.3b and is down 3% in pre-market but still just above the bottom of the chaneel of $40-$50.

- mSquare

Posts Tagged ‘trading techniques’

A Tradable Edge

by Chart School - April 9th, 2010 4:28 pm

A tradable edge

Courtesy of Allan

On April 1, the GLD Daily Trend Model flipped long, with GLD closing on that day at 110.26.

GLD Daily Trend Model

One week later, GLD is above 113, for about a 3% gain. This gain may not look like much on the above chart, but the near-term at-the-money calls are up well over 100%. The Buy signal didn’t come in at the very bottom, but it did come in early enough in the GLD rally to generate some nice gains. The same can be said for the three other signals shown on the Daily chart above. I like the way these signals perform, not perfect, but a tradable edge.

What now? Hold your gold. It’s in an up trend. Same thing for financials.

Financials and the market

FAS is a triple leveraged ETF for financial services stocks. Its hard to imagine the market suffering any kind of sustainable decline with this kind of strength:

FAS Daily Model

GS Daily Model

The Sell signal in GS at the end of March was not confirmed in FAS. Wish I had noticed this earlier, but don’t know if it would have been enough for me to pass on the GS Sell. In any case, they are both pointing up, for now.

Allan’s recently launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with the trading system he’s been working on for years. His trend-following method is chart-based and objective. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here. For a more detailed introduction to the Trend Following Trading Model newsletter and trading system, read this introductory article. - Ilene

And while I’m at it, here’s the newest free download from Elliott Wave International:

The How to Spot Trading Opportunities eBook features 47-pages of easy-to-understand trading techniques that help you identify high-confidence trade setups. Senior EWI Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy shows you how some of the simplest rules and guidelines can be used as powerful trading tools. Created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, this valuable eBook is offered free until April 23, 2010.

Go here to download it now.

Tags: elliott wave international, financial sector, GLD, Gold, trading techniques, trend following models

Posted in Chart School | No Comments »

Dow’s Theory of Markets

by ilene - February 16th, 2010 10:38 pm

Here’s the second chapter from Pharmboy’s “Handbook of Technical Analysis.” If you missed the introduction and first chapter, click on “Understanding Market Cycles: The Art of Market Timing” to read from the beginning. – Ilene

Dow’s Theory of Markets

Courtesy of Pharmboy of Phil’s Stock World

Chalkboard with Einstein's Theory of Relativity

Technical analysis dates back hundreds of years. According to historical records, a great Japanese rice trader named Homma Munehisa (1724-1803) developed a form of TA known as candlestick charting.[1] A candlestick chart is a style of bar-chart used primarily to describe price movements of securities, derivatives, and currencies over time. It combines aspects of a line-chart and a bar-chart, in that each bar represents the range of price movement over a given time interval. It is most often used in TA of equity and currency price patterns.

Technical analysis is an art. With focus and diligence, TA can often be learned within a short period. A chartist using TA reads and interprets chart patterns and then attempts to predict the most likely short-term outcome based on his methods. Figure 1 shows a 6 month Diamonds (DIA) candlestick chart and many patterns and studies that traders often use to enhance their trading. Moving averages convergence divergence (MACD) and relative strength index (RSI) are two studies very commonly used by technical analysts. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices, while RSI is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in trying to decide overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. Because candlestick charting is the basis of this handbook, I use these types of charts almost exclusively in my examples.

In the U.S., TA first gained a following from Charles Dow’s Dow Theory in the late 19th century. The six basic tenets of Dow Theory, as summarized by Hamilton, Rhea, and Schaefer, are as follows:

Tenant 1. The market has three movements (Figure 2):

The primary trend, or major trend, may last from less than a year to several years. It is bullish or bearish.
A secondary trend moves in the opposite direction of the primary trend, or as a correction to the primary trend. For example, an upward primary trend will

…

Tags: charts, dow theory, Pharmboy, Stock Market, technical analysis, trading techniques

Posted in Appears on main page, Immediately available to public, Permissions, Phil's Favorites | 3 Comments »

Market Montage

Whitney Houston Dead at 48

February 11th, 2012 8:20 pm

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Damn. Two (MJ and Whitney) of the big 4 of the 80s gone – Madonna and Prince remain. Probably the most well known Star Spangled Banner ever…

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund's holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog

...

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Zero Hedge

Europe: "The Flaw"

February 11th, 2012 8:05 pm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

We have posted various extracts from this piece from Credit Suisse previously. We will post from it again, because, to loosely paraphrase Lewis Black, it bears reposting... especially in the context of the latest and greatest Greek "bailout" (of Europe's bankers), which incidentally, will achieve nothing and merely bring the country one step closer to a military coup and/or civil war.

The flaw

The market is essentially proceeding on the assumption, as we see it, that banks’ capital requirements can be met organically, through earnings and deleveraging. We ...

Phil's Favorites

It's Well Past Time for Plan Z

February 11th, 2012 6:46 pm

It's Well Past Time for Plan Z

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth

Mario Draghi captured the utter ineptitude of him and every other Eurocrat out there when he said the following at today’s press conference in response to a question about a Greek exit: “To have a Plan B means defeat already. I am confident that all the pieces of this will fall in the proper places.”

Most 5-year old children in pre-school have already been told not to believe that they can always win and that “winning isn’t everything”, but Draghi & Co. still refuse to consider the possibility of failure even as it is staring them in the face. What’s really disturbing is that the stakes here are obviously much, much higher than they are o...

Chart School

The Student Loan Debt Bomb

February 11th, 2012 5:35 pm

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

It's interesting to watch some of the terms bandied about in headline news. For example, the LA Times headline reads S&P says student loan debt could be next financial bubble.

Next? Could Be?

What with the word "next"? Also what's with the words "could be"? Without a doubt student loans are in a bubble and have been for many years. The source of the problem, as it always is with financial bubbles, is cheap money, loans to nearly anyone, and in the case of student loans, no way to discharge the debt, even in bankruptcy.

From the article:

"Student-loan debt has ballooned and m...

Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 2/11/2012

February 11th, 2012 12:00 am

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisICABUYThe projected value for Empresas ICA is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.FEICBUYProjected value continues to rise for FEI while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving....

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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Friday February 10, 2012

February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:

Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty

The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.

Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.

...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

ETF Selector

ETFs Skid On Greece (VGK, EWG, FXE, DIA, SPY)

February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fears

After wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.

After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.

Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Option Review

True Religion Falls Apart At The Seams After Earnings

February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm

Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT

...

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 6th, 2012

February 6th, 2012 9:02 am

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics

February 5th, 2012 5:19 am

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/30/2012

January 30th, 2012 7:22 am

Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position. AA Money No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position. Last week P&L - 310.00 We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium! FAS Money Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though! Last week P&L - $4277.00 IWM Money A decent week in this virtual portfo...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

January 18th, 2012 1:09 am

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Favorites Site >>