TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman continued his crusade against the government’s official stats and involvement in financial markets in an interview Friday with BNN. In it, he argues that the private demand — from companies, investors, hedge funds, and pensions — just isn’t there.
After Nearly Two Years Of Searching, TrimTabs Still Can’t Figure Out Who Is Buying Stocks
by ilene - December 23rd, 2010 6:05 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge
A year after Charles Biderman’s provocative post first appeared on Zero Hedge, in which he asked just who is doing all the buying of stocks as the money was obviously not coming from retail investors (and came up with one very notable suggestion), today Maria Bartiromo invited the TrimTabs head once again (conveniently in CNBC’s lowest rated show, during Christmas Eve eve, at a time when perhaps 5 people would be watching) in an interview which disclosed that after more than a year of searching, Biderman still has no idea who actually buying. In response to Bartiromo’s question if the retail investor, who left after the flash crash (thank you SEC), Biderman responds what every Zero Hedger has known for 33 weeks: "Retail investors are not coming back to the US. Those investors that are investing are buying global equities and are buying commodities. We are seeing lots money going into commodity ETF funds: gold, silver…" and the even more unpleasant summation: "individuals have been selling, companies are net selling, insider selling and new offerings are swamping any buyback and any cash M&A activity since QE 2 was announced. Pension funds and hedge funds don’t really have that much cash to invest. So what nobody’s asking is what happens when QE 2 stops: if the only buyer is the Fed, and the Fed stops buying, I don’t know what is going to happen...When I was on your show a year ago I was saying the same thing: we can’t figure out who is doing the buying it has to be the government, and people said I was nuts. Now the government is admitting it is rigging the market." Cue Bartiromo jaw dropping.
As for the simple math of where the money is actually going:
"Money flows come out of income, take home pay of everybody plus money that came from real estate is down about $1 trillion a year. It peaked in the 3rd quarter of 2008, at $7 trillion, that’s take home pay for everybody who pays taxes plus the money that came from real estate. It has now bottomed at $5.9 trillion. We are still down $1.1 trillion in money that people have to spend each year, that 16%. And some of the money that is leaving equity markets we think is going to pay bills."
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“We’ve Never Seen this Before – Such a Huge Rally, and the Little Guy Is Out”
by ilene - January 11th, 2010 8:08 pm
"We’ve Never Seen this Before – Such a Huge Rally, and the Little Guy Is Out"
Courtesy of George Washington
Joseph Stiglitz says that Wall Street is hyping up the economy to sell more stock.
Has it worked?
Well, the stock market certainly has rocketed up from its March lows.
But many investors are still avoiding equities.
As Vincent Deluard – a strategist for TrimTabs Investment Research (25% of the top 50 hedge funds in the world use TrimTabs’ research for market timing) – says:
We’ve never seen this before – such a huge rally, and the little guy is out.
In other words, the stock market rally is due almost entirely to hedgies, pension funds, banks and other institutional investors, and not every day investors.
It is even possible that the government itself has been propping up the stock market. And Bill Gross and Nouriel Roubini say that we have a Ponzi style economy.
TrimTabs notes that small investors pulled out $14 billion net from stock mutual funds from the beginning of last year through mid-December, on top of a net $245 billion withdrawn in 2008.
Given that – as pointed out by the above-linked article – individuals held 80% of the $19 trillion in stock in U.S. companies, both private and public, at the end of September – according to the Federal Reserve – recovery will not happen so long as the little guys are sitting on the sidelines.
TrimTabs notes that most of $592 billion taken out of money market mutual funds last year has gone into bond and bond-hybrid funds instead.
No wonder David Rosenberg is saying:
- "People have been lured into two bubbles seven years apart, and for a lot of them it’s over."
- "The bulls say if the market is up this much without retail investors, just watch when they come in, but it isn’t going to happen."
- Investors who have not been spooked or angered by the market are probably too poor to buy anyway.
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TrimTabs CEO: The Government Must Be Buying Shares
by ilene - January 11th, 2010 2:02 pm
Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made and Joe Weisenthal at Clusterstock on TrimTabs’ Charles Biderman’s talk on the strange action the equity markets. – Ilene
"The only logical buyer is the government"
Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made
From last Friday on BNN, Charles Biderman of TrimTabs talks about the odd goings on in U.S. equity markets last year where low volume and the lack of identifiable buyers have caused more than a few people to suspect that things are not as they appear.
Biderman says that in after-hours S&P500 futures markets, as little as $5 to $10 billion a month in buying could be responsible for a large part of last year’s gains and, when you think about it, $5 to $10 billion a month for the U.S. government in 2009 was "chump change".
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TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Lost 284,000 Jobs in October and 5.9 Million Jobs in Past Year
by ilene - November 5th, 2009 4:21 am
TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Lost 284,000 Jobs in October and 5.9 Million Jobs in Past Year
Data from TrimTabs and BEA Indicates Wages and Salaries Declining Sequentially
SAUSALITO, Calif., Nov. 4 /PRNewswire/ — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy lost 284,000 jobs in October, a modest improvement over the 358,000 jobs shed in September. TrimTabs estimates 5.9 million jobs were lost in the past 12 months.
"We’re not surprised Washington policymakers are mulling more stimulus measures," said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs. "Despite all the money the government threw at the economy in the past year, employers are still cutting hundreds of thousands of jobs per month."
TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. Historically, TrimTabs’ estimates have been more accurate than the initial estimate of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"For the labor market to turn around, the economy needs to add 100,000 to 150,000 jobs per month," Biderman said. "While we’ve stepped back from the abyss, we’ve got a long way to go before the economy starts creating jobs."
As the labor market continues to contract, those with jobs have less buying power. In a research note, TrimTabs explained that wages and salaries are still declining sequentially. TrimTabs estimates based on income tax deposits that wages and salaries fell 5.3% y-o-y in September and 4.6% y-o-y in October, steeper than declines earlier in the year even though year-over-year comparisons have become much easier.
Wage and salary data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirms what TrimTabs has been reporting for months. According to the BEA, wages and salaries fell sequentially in seven of the first nine months of 2009, including a sequential decline of 0.2% in September.
"Our key indicators on employment and income suggest a sustainable economic recovery is a long way off," Biderman said. "The government has done a lot more to create make-work jobs for bureaucrats and pump up auto and home sales than to promote long-term growth."
TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit…
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Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top
by ilene - August 28th, 2009 9:23 pm
Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top
Source: TrimTabs, www.TrimTabs
Insider Selling in August Soars to 30.6 Times Insider Buying, Highest Level Since TrimTabs Began Tracking in 2004. NYSE Short Interest Plunges 10.3%, While Margin Debt Spikes 5.9%
SAUSALITO, Calif., Aug. 28 /PRNewswire/ — TrimTabs Investment Research reported that selling by corporate insiders in August has surged to $6.1 billion, the highest amount since May 2008. The ratio of insider selling to insider buying hit 30.6, the highest level since TrimTabs began tracking the data in 2004.
"The best-informed market participants are sending a clear signal that the party on Wall Street is going to end soon," said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs…
In a research note, TrimTabs explained that insider activity is not the only sign the rally is about to end. The TrimTabs Demand Index, which tracks 18 fund flow and sentiment indicators, has turned very bearish for the first time since March…
"When corporate insiders are bailing, the shorts are covering and investors are borrowing to buy, it generally pays to be a seller rather than a buyer of stock," said Biderman.
TrimTabs also reports that the actions of U.S. public companies have been bearish. In the past four months, companies have been net sellers of a record $105.2 billion in shares.
"Investors who think the U.S. economy is recovering are going to get a big shock this fall," said Biderman…
TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.
Read entire TrimTab article here.
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Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top
by Insider Scoop - August 28th, 2009 9:13 pm
Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top
Source: TrimTabs, www.TrimTabs
Insider Selling in August Soars to 30.6 Times Insider Buying, Highest Level Since TrimTabs Began Tracking in 2004. NYSE Short Interest Plunges 10.3%, While Margin Debt Spikes 5.9%
SAUSALITO, Calif., Aug. 28 /PRNewswire/ — TrimTabs Investment Research reported that selling by corporate insiders in August has surged to $6.1 billion, the highest amount since May 2008. The ratio of insider selling to insider buying hit 30.6, the highest level since TrimTabs began tracking the data in 2004.
"The best-informed market participants are sending a clear signal that the party on Wall Street is going to end soon," said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs…
In a research note, TrimTabs explained that insider activity is not the only sign the rally is about to end. The TrimTabs Demand Index, which tracks 18 fund flow and sentiment indicators, has turned very bearish for the first time since March…
"When corporate insiders are bailing, the shorts are covering and investors are borrowing to buy, it generally pays to be a seller rather than a buyer of stock," said Biderman.
TrimTabs also reports that the actions of U.S. public companies have been bearish. In the past four months, companies have been net sellers of a record $105.2 billion in shares.
"Investors who think the U.S. economy is recovering are going to get a big shock this fall," said Biderman…
TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.
Read entire TrimTab article here.
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“STOCK PRICES ARE GOING TO FALL HARD”
by ilene - June 18th, 2009 1:16 pm
For a free subscription to Phil’s Stock World, click here (it’s easy, no credit card required).
Here’s another timely article from The Pragmatic Capitalist this morning – in agreement a couple bearish articles posted yesterday, Glenn Neely – 50% decline before end of year and This Trade Happens Only Twice a Year.
“STOCK PRICES ARE GOING TO FALL HARD”
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
That’s what TrimTabs is expecting. They are out with some alarming data regarding the recent issuance of stock. While the laws of supply and demand don’t seem to be applying to commodities of late you can almost guarantee that the overwhelming increase in the supply of stock will keep a lid on stocks. A recent MarketWatch article reports:
Firms have recently issued far more shares of their stock (either through initial public offerings or secondary offerings) than they did even in the go-go years of the late 1990s and at the top of the Internet bubble in early 2000.
That’s not good news, from a contrarian point of view: The stock market historically has tended to perform poorly following periods in which firms have flooded the market with more shares.
Prior to May, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, the highest level of share issuance in a given month was $38 billion. May blew that record out of the water, with a monthly total of $64 billion.
Furthermore, that blistering pace has continued during the first two weeks of June, according to TrimTabs.
How bad an omen is this corporate eagerness to offer its shares to the investing public? Looking back through recent history, TrimTabs found that there have been just 12 months since 1998 in which total new corporate offerings totaled at least $30 billion. The average return for the S&P 500 index over the 90 days following those months was a loss of 4%.
Dissecting the data further, TrimTabs next focused on those months in which not only did total corporate issuance exceed $30 billion, but also those in which total corporate share purchases were less. The S&P 500’s average 90-day return following those months was a loss of 7%.
This more-narrowly-defined subset applies to today, unfortunately. According to TrimTabs, corporate new offerings since the beginning of May have been nearly five times greater than corporate
…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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