Testy Tuesday – How Many Times Will You Fall for the Same Thing?
by Phil - January 17th, 2012 7:54 am
Isn't this exciting!
The pre-markets are up 1% after a long weekend. That hasn't happened since – two weeks ago! Of course last Tuesday, we were jammed up as well and the Tuesday after Christmas, we were jammed up as well but THIS TIME – we're REALLY feeling it, right?
The funniest thing is the way they have dozens of idiots saying all sorts of ridiculous things on CNBC and not one of them mentions even the vaguest hint of deja vu in what has been the most consistent pattern of late 2011, early 2012.
On this Dollar chart from Scott Pluschau, you can see the dives that are occasionally taken to goose the markets and we have another one this morning with the Dollar down 1%, making the 1% pop in the futures slightly less impressive when taken in context.
This time may be different because, according to Friday's Legacy Commitments of Traders Report released by the CTFC, Commercial Traders are now net short on the Dollar to the tune of 59,023 to just 6,061 longs – about a 10:1 ratio that is EXTREME to say the least. Non-Reportable, Non-Commercial Traders (ie. Speculators), on the other hand, are almost 10:1 the other way with 9,765 long contracts and just 1,390 shorts. Reportable Non-Commercial Traders (Hedge Funds) fill out the rest of the longs with 52,644 long contracts against just 8,057 shorts.
That's an odd sort of positions for the speculating class to be taking (super-long on the Dollar) considering the possibility of a highly dilutive quantitative event (QE3) in the very near future. This is why we can't be gung-ho bearish – tempting though it may be and this is why every little rumor of Europe being "fixed" sends the Dollar flying down – there are no buyers – only nervous long Dollar holders.
As you…
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DiggPut Players See More Pain Ahead For Computer Sciences Corp.
by Option Review - November 10th, 2011 1:59 pm
Today’s tickers: CSC, SGY, JPM & UNH
CSC - Computer Sciences Corp. – Bearish traders snapped up put options on the provider of information technology services straight out of the gate this morning, a sign the already hard-hit stock may have further to fall before the current calendar year concludes. Shares in Computer Sciences Corp. opened sharply lower, one day after the company reduced its fiscal 2012 profit estimate and reported a second-quarter net loss of $2.88 billion. Excluding some items the company earned $0.94 a share in the quarter, more than the $0.68 a share anticipated by analysts, on average. CSC’s shares closed Wednesday’s session down 15.0%, and extended losses on Thursday, falling 8.0% this morning to an intraday low of $25.67. The stock was cut to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Neutral’ at JPMorgan today. Investors positioning for the stock to continue to decline picked up deep out-of-the-money November and December expiry puts that look for the price of the underlying to suffer additional double-digit declines in the near future. Bears populating the front month picked up more than 700 puts at the Nov. $25 strike for an average premium of $0.58 each, and purchased some 400 put options at the lower Nov. $22.5 strike at an average premium of $0.15 a-pop. Options volume on the stock is heaviest, however, in the December expiry. One trader appears to have purchased a block of 5,000 put options at the Dec. $20 strike for a premium of $0.30 each. The put player may profit at expiration next month in the event that CSC shares plunge 23.25% off today’s low of $25.67 to breach the effective breakeven price of $19.70. Finally, Dec. $22.5 strike puts were popular this morning, as well, with some 1,300 of the options having been purchased for an average premium of $0.59 apiece. Computer Sciences Corp. shares are down a staggering 55.0% off the February 8, 2010, 52-week high of $56.51. Options implied volatility on CSC is up better than 40.0% to stand at 69.2% as of 11:50 AM in New York.
SGY - Stone Energy Corp. – The independent oil and natural gas company popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner today due to heavier-than-usual activity in its calls. Shares in Stone Energy Corp. are up more than 5.1% this afternoon to stand at $26.25 as of 12:50 PM ET, and it looks like some traders are gearing up for…
Tech Wreck Tuesday – IBM and TXN “Disappoint”
by Phil - July 20th, 2010 8:13 am
Wheeeee – this is fun!
Well, it’s fun when you have disaster hedges anyway. I already sent out an Alert to Members this morning reminding them that there’s no point in having disaster hedges if you don’t use that money to buy on the dips, though. Yesterday we added downside, leveraged plays on SDS (2) and DXD and our focus short was on NFLX (last week it was MA, and that went very well) along with our usual DIA Mattress play. That shifted us a bit negative as we failed to hold our watch levels and now we are sadly looking all the way down to those low closes of: Dow 9,686, S&P 1,022, Nasdaq 2,081, NYSE 6,434, Russell 590, SOX 332 and Transports 1,905 as a possible re-test if things get really ugly.
On July 3rd I laid out "5 Plays that Make 500% if the Market Falls" and, fortunately, we didn’t need them as we took off on Monday but they are still good plays and a little cheaper now than they were when we last tested our bottoms. If you are not well-protected – I strongly suggest you read this post and at least be ready to initiate a hedge if we can’t turn this morning around. As with most day’s lately – it’s all about copper and the $3 line…
That being said, I do think we will turn this morning around eventually - because IBM is down $7 and the Dow moves about 8 points per $1 of component value so that’s hitting the Dow for 56 points all by itself. IBM’s earnings were great but revs missed, in large part due to currency issues. BRIC revenues were up 22% for the company, despite the crap exchange rate.
TXN got whacked too on their report that profits nearly tripled on a 42% jump in revenues (not kidding). "Demand has continued very solid and very broad-based," said Ron Slaymaker, the company’s vice president of investor relations.
Mr. Slaymaker said the biggest positive surprise in the period was stronger demand from companies that buy industrial equipment, which have rebounded much slower than consumers from the recession. One notable area of weakness, he added, was sales of chips used in cellphones. TI has long been a major supplier to handset-maker Nokia Corp., which in June lowered its second-quarter forecast.
The company reported net income for the period ended
…
UnitedHealth Bulls Have a Fever – the Only Prescription is More Call Options
by Option Review - March 16th, 2010 4:20 pm
Today’s tickers: UNH, BZH, WFC, GE, XLB, WMT, BAC, COF, HOG, ETFC & STJ
UNH – UnitedHealth Group, Inc. – Health and well-being company, UnitedHealth Group, commenced the trading session in the red after Goldman Sachs Group removed the firm from its ‘Conviction Buy List’. However, UNH is still rated as a ‘buy’ at Goldman, and the company’s shares recovered this afternoon to stand 0.60% higher at $32.73. A fire-storm of bullish activity descended on UnitedHealth during the middle of the trading day. Investors gobbled up April contract call options perhaps to position for continued bullish movement in the price of the underlying shares. Options players purchased 42,600 call options at the April $34 strike for an average premium of $0.87 per contract. More than 50,000 calls changed hands at that strike, which blows the 4,333 contracts of open interest at that strike right out of the water. Investors long the calls are positioned to amass profits should UNH’s shares rally another 6.5% to breach the breakeven price of $34.87 by April expiration. Wild-and-crazy options activity on the stock lifted the overall reading of options implied volatility 5% to 43.06% as of 2:05 pm (ET).
BZH – Beazer Homes USA, Inc. – Single- and multi-family homebuilding company, Beazer Homes USA, attracted bullish options players today amid a 4.65% rally in its share price to $4.95. Beazer was upgraded to a ‘buy’ rating and a target share price of $6.25 at Citigroup yesterday. Plain-vanilla call buying took place at the near-term March $5.0 strike where investor picked up 2,100 contracts for an average premium of $0.14 apiece. Investors long these contracts are hoping Beazer’s shares rally another 4.25% from the current price to surpass the effective breakeven point at $5.14 ahead of expiration on Friday. Optimism spread to the April $5.0 strike as traders coveted 2,200 calls for an average premium of $0.32 per contract. Call-buyers in the April contract profit if shares jump 8% and trade above the breakeven price of $5.32 by expiration day next month. The surge in investor demand for options on Beazer Homes lifted the overall reading of options implied volatility on the stock 15.8% to 61.92% this afternoon.
WFC – Wells Fargo & Co. – The bank holding company’s shares increased more than 0.65% during the session to $30.09, inspiring bullish options activity on the stock. Investors positioning for a continued rally in the price…
Option Bulls Buy Calls to Celebrate New Coverage of NuVasive Spinal Treatment
by Option Review - February 26th, 2010 5:49 pm
Today’s tickers: NUVA, TRE, FXE, BBY, DECK, LEN, AA, ESRX, JDSU & UNH
NUVA – NuVasive Inc. – The spinal surgery equipment maker’s shares are up sharply today by more than 32.50% to $39.38. NuVasive’s shares surged on news health insurance company, Aetna, is changing its policy to allow reimbursement for surgical spine treatment know as lateral interbody fusion. Bullish posturing in call options was observed today following the news about extended coverage for the treatment, which was previously excluded for being an experimental procedure. Plain-vanilla call buyers picked up nearly 2,000 contracts at the March $40 strike for an average premium of $1.34 apiece. Investors long the calls are prepared to pocket profits if NUVA’s shares rally above the effective breakeven point on the calls at $41.34 by expiration day next month.
TRE – Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp. – British Columbia, Canada-based gold mining company, Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp., attracted heavier than usual two-way trading traffic in put options today. The firm, which explores and acquires gold properties in Tanzania, realized a 2.30% rally in its shares during the session to $4.05. More than 25,000 in-the-money put options changed hands at the October $5 strike with the majority of the volume trading to the bid. Approximately 14,200 puts were sold for an average premium of $1.31 per contract, while 5,200 put contracts were purchased at that strike for roughly the same amount of premium. In-the-money put sellers are perhaps anticipating continued bullish movement in the price of the underlying by October expiration. Investors short the puts keep the full $1.31 premium per contract if TRE’s shares rally above $5.00 by expiration day. Put sellers stand ready to have shares of the underlying stock put to them at an effective price of $3.69 apiece in the event that the put contracts remain in-the-money through expiration day.
FXE – CurrencyShares Euro Trust – Shares of the FXE exchange-traded fund, which reflects the price of the Euro, are up 0.45% to $135.88 in afternoon trading. A decent-sized put butterfly spread on the fund indicates one investor does not expect the current rally to continue. On the contrary, the parameters of the spread benefit the trader most if shares decrease roughly 2.25% in value by April expiration. To enact the bearish butterfly play, the investor purchased 5,000 puts at the April $134 strike for a premium of $1.50 apiece [wing 1], and picked…
Bullish Bedlam on UnitedHealth in Late-Day Trading
by Option Review - December 16th, 2009 4:04 pm
Today’s tickers: UNH, F, EZCH, FBP, XOP, F, BMY, KFT, UNT, TIVO, ADBE & AMED
UNH – UnitedHealth Group, Inc. – Bullish investors stampeded the health and well-being company in late afternoon trading with shares up 3% to a new 52-week high of $32.25. Frenzied call activity on the stock drove option implied volatility up sharply by 19.5% to 45.17% from an intraday low of 37.37%. One investor was ready for the rally today, and banked profits on a previously established call position. The trader likely purchased about 20,000 calls at the now deep in-the-money December 23 strike price for a maximum premium of 3.00 per contract back on October 8, 2009, when UNH shares were at $24.13. Today the trader sold the calls for an average premium of 8.95 each. It looks like the investor took in net profits on the sale of at least 5.95 per contract for a total of $11.9 million. Next, it appears the trader extended bullish sentiment on the stock by establishing a larger call position. A big chunk of 30,000 calls were picked up at the now in-the-money January 31 strike for an average premium of 2.20 each. Thus, the trader breaks even on the new position if shares surpass $33.20 by expiration next month. Other bullish traders initiated call spreads on the stock. One UNH-bull bought 5,000 calls at the in-the-money January 31 strike for about 2.12 apiece, and sold the same number of calls at the higher January 34 strike for 70 cents premium each. The net cost of the spread amounts to 1.42 per contract and yields maximum potential profits of 1.58 apiece if shares rally up to $34.00 by January’s expiration day.
F – Ford Motor Co. – A late afternoon, large-volume put spread on the U.S. automaker is likely the work of an investor locking in gains enjoyed during Ford’s recent share price rally. Shares reached a new 52-week high of $9.64 during the trading session. The option trader looked to the March 2010 contract to purchase 18,000 puts at the March 9.0 strike for 62 cents apiece, spread against the sale of the same number of puts at the lower March 7.0 strike for 16 cents premium each. The net cost of the protective play amounts to 46 cents per contract. If the investor is indeed holding a long position in the underlying, the value of that…
Retail Reversal Combination Grabs Attention on XRT
by Option Review - November 4th, 2009 4:11 pm
Today’s tickers: XRT, MGM, DE, GLD, UUP, NWL, HNZ, EWZ, UNH, OSTK & STEC
XRT – SPDR S&P Retail ETF – A three-legged transaction in the December contract on the retail exchange-traded fund reveals bearish sentiment by one investor. Shares of the XRT are trading nearly 1% higher today to $34.60. It looks like the trader sold call options in order to offset the cost of buying a put spread. The put spread involved the purchase of 5,000 puts at the December 33 strike for a premium of 1.07 apiece, marked against the sale off 5,000 puts at the lower December 30 strike for approximately 37 cents each. The sale of 5,000 calls at the higher December 36 strike knocked another 87 cents per contract off the total price of the bearish play. The investor more than offset the cost of buying the spread and thus receives a net credit of 17 cents per contract. The full credit is retained by the trader as long as shares of the XRT remain below $36.00 through expiration. Additional profits may accumulate if shares dip below $33.00, while maximum potential gains of 3.00 per contract require that shares trade down to $30.00.
MGM – MGM Mirage, Inc. – Shares of the casino resort operator slipped 2.5% lower to $9.40 today but one options optimist initiated a bullish play on the stock in the March 2010 contract. It appears the trader put on a ratio call spread by buying one in-the-money call option for every three out-of-the-money calls sold. The investor purchased 10,000 calls at the deep in-the-money March 7.0 strike for 3.20 apiece and simultaneously sold 30,000 calls at the higher March 12 strike for 1.05 each. The net cost of the transaction is reduced to just one nickel per contract. The investor probably does not expect shares to rally through $12.00 by expiration because he is short 20,000 calls at that strike price in the March contract. Shares of MGM last traded above $12.00 on October 14, 2009.
DE – Deere & Co. – A large bearish butterfly spread appeared in the March 2010 contract on the agricultural equipment maker. The transaction indicates one investor is positioning for significant declines in the price of DE shares by expiration. Shares are down 1% to $46.76 with just under 90 minutes remaining in the trading day. The investor purchased the upper wing of the…
Stock Market Crash – Year One Review III – March Madness!
by Phil - September 10th, 2009 5:51 pm
We left off in Part II with our Feb 23rd Big Chart Review.
Even though I said: "Once again we are in a market that environment that reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Homer jumps over a gorge, crashes, is taken up by a helicopter (Ben) smashing against the wall along the way only to fall all the way from the top again. Pain, pain and more pain every time we try to get long" – we still weren’t fully prepared for the devastation that was to follow as the Dow fell from 7,500 to 6,500 in the next 10 days. My commentary on the environment the next day was:
According to Cap, someone on the YHOO message board was counting the number of times CNBC talking heads said "nationalization" this morning and, as of 8:15, they were up to 300 times. Sadly, this is the fear-mongering that is driving the markets to new lows while Cramer continues to keep his sheeple out of protective ETFs like SKF. So you have the man’s network telling you financials are going to zero while dog and pony boy tells his minions to sell ALL the financials, causing them to go to zero - even though they could hold on and protect themselves with conta-funds, if Cramer didn’t spend 3 days a week convincing his viewers contra-funds are poison. I’ve never seen anything like this outside of a racketerring investigation. Speaking of racketeering - Dennis Kucinich nailed it when he pinned that charge on Paulson and company back in November.
Our wall of worry continues to be a steep one. After yesterday’s failure we do not expect too much out of today, we’ll be happy to just see a bottom at this point but it’s looking a little more likely that we’re heading into a capitulation event that can take us down to frightening levels. The 60% line is a line the markets dare not cross but, as I pointed out yesterday, we already lost the SOX and the Nikkei, with the Hang Seng and the BSE hanging on by a thread. Let’s take these levels very seriously, if the administration can’t turn it around this week – the downward momentum can easily pick up steam.
I’ll spare you the details other than to say we DIDN’T turn it around that week and the downward momentum DID pick up steam. I was at war with…
Ratio Call Spread Suggests Bullish Sentiment on Cabot Oil & Gas
by Option Review - August 17th, 2009 5:53 pm
Today’s tickers: COG, HPQ, ALGN, VIX, WLP, UNH, CVX, & OIH
Lexmark Call Buyers Out In Force
by Option Review - July 14th, 2009 4:16 pm
Today’s tickers: LXK, EEM, MT, VIX, HUM, IPI, MIR & UNH
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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