Posts Tagged ‘Weimar Collapse’

Some Common Fallacies About Inflation and Deflation: the Weimar Nightmare in Review

Here’s an article by Jesse’s Café Américain on inflation and deflation. 

Some Common Fallacies About Inflation and Deflation: the Weimar Nightmare in Review

Le Café AméricainThere are several fallacies making the rounds of the economic community, often put forward by pundits on the infomercials for corporate America, and also on the internet among well-meaning but badly informed bloggers.

The first of these monetary fallacies is that ‘the output gap will prevent inflation.’ The second is that a lack of net bank lending or other ‘debt destruction’ will require a deflationary outcome. Let’s deal with the output gap theory first.

Output gap is the economic measure of the difference between the actual output of an economy and the output it could achieve when it is most efficient, or at full capacity.

The theory is that when GDP underperforms its potential, with unemployment remaining high, there can be no inflation because demand is weak and median wages will be presumably stagnant. This idea comes from neoliberal monetarist economics, and a misunderstanding of the inflationary experience of the 1970s.

The thought is that sustained inflation is due to a ‘wage-price’ spiral. Higher wages amongst workers cause prices to rise, prompting workers to demand higher wages, thereby fueling inflation. If workers do not have the ability to demand higher wages there can be no inflation.

While this is in part true, it tends to confuse cause and effect.

The cause of a monetary inflation, which is a broadly based inflation across most products and services relatively independent of demand, is often based in a monetary expansion of the currency resulting in a debasement and devaluation.

A monetary expansion is relatively difficult to achieve under an external standard since it must be overt and often deliberative. A gradual inflation is an almost natural outcome under a fiat currency regime because policy-makers can almost never resist the temptation of cheap growth and the personal enrichment that comes with it.

There can be short term non-monetary inflation-deflation cycles that tend to be more product specific in a market that is not under government price controls. But this is not the same as a broad monetary inflation or deflation.

The key difference is the value of the dollar which has little or nothing to do with a business cycle or product demand/supply induced inflation/deflation.

In the modern era the Federal Reserve can increase the money supply


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ValueWalk

This Emerging Global Trend Just Hit The World's #2 Lithium Producer

By PiercePoints. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The “value added” craze has been sweeping the mining world. With governments from Zimbabwe to Indonesia calling for miners to upgrade copper, nickel, aluminum and platinum in-country — rather than exporting lower-value mineral concentrates.

And this week, the world’s second-largest lithium nation jumped on the bandwagon. Calling for increased processing of lithium in the country, and offering financial incentives for those who help.

By Dnn87 (Self-photographed) [GFDL or CC BY 3.0], ...

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Zero Hedge

"Trump Is Going To Fail" - Soros Speaks Live In Davos

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In an breakout session, George Soros is again speaking in Davos, discussing items such as the fate of Europe, markets, regulation and of course, Trump, saying that he is convinced "Trump is going to fail" Here are the highlights so far:

  • SOROS: CONVINCED TRUMP WITH FAIL BECAUSE IDEAS CONTRADICTORY
  • SOROS: SAYS HAS CALLED TRUMP A CON MAN AND WOULD-BE DICTATOR
  • SOROS: TRUMP WILL DIVIDE AMERICA, HE OPPOSES THOSE WHO DISAGREE
  • SOROS: TRUMP IS GEARING UP FOR A TRADE WAR
  • SOROS: CAN'T PREDICT HOW TRUMP WILL ACT, TRUMP DOESN'T KNOW...


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Phil's Favorites

Investment Bank Analysts Are Clueless and Incompetent (Video)

Courtesy of EconMatters

We discuss why Investment Bank Analysts should never be listened to regarding any stock recommendations from the buy or sell side perspective, they join the long list of incompetency that is anybody still working at an I-Bank these days. The XOM Stock Downgrade is just a little late, about a month behind the market!

...

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Market News

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Financial Markets and Economy

Oil, Snow and Saudi Billions: Secret Davos Gets Down to Business (Bloomberg)

Nothing sharpens the mind of Davos delegates more than the prospect of striking big deals -- and after a day of debating globalization and its discontents it was time to go for the biggest one of all.

Oil Gains as U.S. Stockpiles Fall While IEA Sees OPEC Cutting (Bloomberg)

Oil recovered after the biggest drop in more than a week as industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles declined, while OPEC and other producing nations trim output to ease a ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will it be different this time for stocks and bonds?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

My mentor Sir John Templeton (founder of the Templeton Funds) used to share that the four most dangerous words in investing are; “It’s Different This Time!” 

Below looks at long term charts on the S&P 500 and the yield on the 10-year note (inverted to look like bond prices).

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

...

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Members' Corner

NFL 2016 Playoffs Championship Sunday

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Following up on our Divisional Playoff projections, all match up stats in Yards Per Attempt, provided by Pro Football Reference.  All times Eastern.

From our Wildcard Weekend projections...
As they are both hotter than a squirrel putting suntan oil on his nuts, keep your eyes on these dark horses...In the NFC, watch the GB Sausage Packers, the potential of facing Mr. Rodgers and his O-line has the DAL Pokes (aka Jerry's Kids) defensive coordinator sweatin like a priest at a preschool.In the AFC, watch the Three Ri...

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Chart School

Russell 2000 Breaks Lower

Courtesy of Declan.

In the end, it was Theresa May and not Trump which saw the Russell 2000 cut through support and confirm the earlier 'bull trap'.  This change coincided with a 'sell' trigger in +DI/-DI. Only stochastics are hanging on to its 'buy' signal.


The S&P experienced heavier volume distribution, but there wasn't a big percentage loss, nor was there a break from the consolidation range

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

China's Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Margin Trading

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China's bitcoin traders who use the most popular bitcoin exchange not only in China, but also the entire world, BTCChina, were met with an unexpected warning on Friday:

Starting from January 12th, 2017, BTCChina has suspended margin loan service. If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service: support@btcc.com.

BTCChina, which commands over 37% of global bitcoin trading...

... wasn't alone.

Fo...



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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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