Will We Hold It Wednesday – Back At Our Bottoms
by Phil - July 21st, 2010 8:27 am
Wow, what a ride!
As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, we expected the Russell to lead us higher and we picked up both IWM and TNA out of the gate but, of course, we like our leverage so my 9:46 Alert to Members was:
Bottoms WERE: Dow 10,200, S&P 1,075, Nas 2,200, NYSE 6,800 and Russell 620. As I said yesterday, "don’t forget there’s a 5% drop to support below these levels).
For now, we’ll be watching the 2.5% lines at Dow 9,945, S&P 1,048, S&P 1,145, NYSE 6,630 and Russell 605.
My working theory is RUT is weakest because they are getting killed by cut-off of unemployment checks. That means that an upside play on the RUT could go very well in case they extend benefits today. I like TNA $37 calls for $3.20 and IWM $63 calls at $1.25. These are risky of course because if the extension is defeated we could go further down so take quick profits off the table on half to make a buffer and make sure you do have some disaster hedges.
We bounced right off those 2.5% lines and got our $3 copper signal at 10:24 so we knew we were good to go as we took those calls plus GOOG, BAC, GS, QQQQ, IBM, TXN, AAPL, WFR and BIIB. Other than BIIB, which is a long-term spread, all of our shopping was done by noon and the rest of the day we just said "Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeee!" as the market went up and up and up – and they haven’t even extended the unemployment benefits yet!
I have been saying we need to keep an eye on copper $3 during this whole market breakdown as $3 copper is NOT the right price for a Global Depression, which is what the market has been pricing in and at 10:24 as copper hit our bull target, I said to Members: "Copper $3! That’s like the little snapping sound when the bear takes the bait in the bear trap." Now we are back testing our "bottoms" which, as I said yesterday, are really the middles of our 5% Rule range but our view of earnings season so far is that we shouldn’t be in the lower end of the range and the recent action, as I summed it up in yesterday’s post, was silly.
Now things…
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DiggTech Wreck Tuesday – IBM and TXN “Disappoint”
by Phil - July 20th, 2010 8:13 am
Wheeeee – this is fun!
Well, it’s fun when you have disaster hedges anyway. I already sent out an Alert to Members this morning reminding them that there’s no point in having disaster hedges if you don’t use that money to buy on the dips, though. Yesterday we added downside, leveraged plays on SDS (2) and DXD and our focus short was on NFLX (last week it was MA, and that went very well) along with our usual DIA Mattress play. That shifted us a bit negative as we failed to hold our watch levels and now we are sadly looking all the way down to those low closes of: Dow 9,686, S&P 1,022, Nasdaq 2,081, NYSE 6,434, Russell 590, SOX 332 and Transports 1,905 as a possible re-test if things get really ugly.
On July 3rd I laid out "5 Plays that Make 500% if the Market Falls" and, fortunately, we didn’t need them as we took off on Monday but they are still good plays and a little cheaper now than they were when we last tested our bottoms. If you are not well-protected – I strongly suggest you read this post and at least be ready to initiate a hedge if we can’t turn this morning around. As with most day’s lately – it’s all about copper and the $3 line…
That being said, I do think we will turn this morning around eventually - because IBM is down $7 and the Dow moves about 8 points per $1 of component value so that’s hitting the Dow for 56 points all by itself. IBM’s earnings were great but revs missed, in large part due to currency issues. BRIC revenues were up 22% for the company, despite the crap exchange rate.
TXN got whacked too on their report that profits nearly tripled on a 42% jump in revenues (not kidding). "Demand has continued very solid and very broad-based," said Ron Slaymaker, the company’s vice president of investor relations.
Mr. Slaymaker said the biggest positive surprise in the period was stronger demand from companies that buy industrial equipment, which have rebounded much slower than consumers from the recession. One notable area of weakness, he added, was sales of chips used in cellphones. TI has long been a major supplier to handset-maker Nokia Corp., which in June lowered its second-quarter forecast.
The company reported net income for the period ended
…
Bull Buys Debit Call Spread on Bank of New York Melon Corp.
by Option Review - May 27th, 2010 4:24 pm
Today’s tickers: BK, CHRS, YHOO, WFC, RF, NTAP & BPOP
BK – Bank of New York Mellon Corp. – Global financial services company, Bank of New York Mellon, received a vote of confidence by one options investor who appears to be positioning for a significant increase in the firm’s share price by July expiration. BK’s shares are currently trading 1.75% higher on the day to stand at $27.82 as of 12:20 pm (ET). It looks like the bullish trader purchased a debit call spread, buying roughly 12,500 calls at the July $29 strike for a premium of $0.94 apiece, and selling about the same number of calls at the higher July $32 strike for a premium of $0.14 each. Net premium paid for the spread amounts to $0.80 per contract. The call spreader makes money if shares of the underlying stock rally at least 7.1% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $29.80 by expiration day in a couple of months. Shares must surge 15% over the current value of the stock and exceed $32.00 each in order for the investor to pocket maximum potential profits of $2.20 per contract by July expiration. BK’s shares last traded above $32.00 on April 29, 2010, when the stock touched an intraday high of $32.17. The current 52-week high for shares of Bank of New York Mellon Corp. is $32.65, attained on April 13, 2010.
CHRS – Charming Shoppes, Inc. – Optimistic options traders are selling short put options on Charming Shoppes just one week before the firm is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings before the opening bell on Thursday June 3, 2010. Charming Shoppes, Inc. is a multi-brand apparel retailer with market share in women’s plus-size specialty apparel. Investors exchanged 6,981 contracts on the stock by 12:30 pm (ET), which is more than 6.3 times greater than previously existing overall open interest of 1,106 contracts. Bullish trading patterns initiated on CHRS were perhaps inspired by the 4.6% jump in the price of the underlying stock to $4.79. Investors sold approximately 5,600 in-the-money puts at the October $5.0 strike to pocket an average premium of $0.77 per contract. Put sellers keep the full premium received on the sale if shares of the underlying stock rally above $5.00 by expiration. Charming Shoppes’ shares traded above $5.00 as recently as May 20, 2010, when the stock touched an intraday high of $5.08. Investors short the…
Bears Once Again Bombard Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
by Option Review - April 23rd, 2010 4:19 pm
Today’s tickers: XLF, CECO, SLB, CTB, WFC, CACI, WSM, CTXS & FITB
XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR – A massive put spread comprised of approximately 200,000 put options on the XLF, an exchange-traded fund that corresponds to the price and yield performance of the Financial Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, indicates investor pessimism is alive and well despite positive first-quarter earnings announcements from a number of large financial firms this week. Bearish plays also dominated activity on the XLF earlier in the week. Shares of the underlying fund are currently down 1.2% to $16.54 as of 3:10 pm (ET). The pessimistic options player appears to have purchased roughly 100,000 put options at the June $16 strike for an average premium of $0.39 each, marked against the sale of about the same number of puts at the lower June $15 strike for $0.16 apiece. Net premium paid for the spread amounts to $0.23 per contract. The massive size of the transaction suggests the trade was initiated by an investor seeking downside protection on sizeable underlying stock positions in either the XLF itself, related holdings of the fund, or perhaps both, through June expiration. Suppose the investor is building up insurance on a large position in the underlying shares of the XLF. In this scenario, downside protection kicks in should shares of the XLF breach the effective breakeven point on the spread at $15.77 ahead of June expiration. Options players exchanged more than 415,000 option contracts on the XLF as of 3:10 pm (ET), with put options trading more than 3.5 times to each single call option in play today.
CECO – Career Education Corp. – Shares of the provider of private, for-profit, postsecondary education in the United States jumped 4.8% during the session to a new 52-week high of $35.41 after the firm received an upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘equal weight’ at Barclays Capital today. Options movement on the stock suggests one investor was prepared for the breakout in CECO’s shares. It looks like the investor first banked profits today by selling a previously established long call position in the July contract, and next extended and augmented bullish sentiment on the stock by purchasing fresh calls at a higher strike price. The trader likely purchased 1,900 calls at the July $35 strike f or an average premium of $1.70 each back on March 17, 2010, when shares of…
Bears Once Again Bombard Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
by Option Review - April 22nd, 2010 5:13 pm
Today’s tickers: XLF, CECO, SLB, CTB, WFC, CACI, WSM, CTXS & FITB
XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR – A massive put spread comprised of approximately 200,000 put options on the XLF, an exchange-traded fund that corresponds to the price and yield performance of the Financial Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, indicates investor pessimism is alive and well despite positive first-quarter earnings announcements from a number of large financial firms this week. Bearish plays also dominated activity on the XLF earlier in the week. Shares of the underlying fund are currently down 1.2% to $16.54 as of 3:10 pm (ET). The pessimistic options player appears to have purchased roughly 100,000 put options at the June $16 strike for an average premium of $0.39 each, marked against the sale of about the same number of puts at the lower June $15 strike for $0.16 apiece. Net premium paid for the spread amounts to $0.23 per contract. The massive size of the transaction suggests the trade was initiated by an investor seeking downside protection on sizeable underlying stock positions in either the XLF itself, related holdings of the fund, or perhaps both, through June expiration. Suppose the investor is building up insurance on a large position in the underlying shares of the XLF. In this scenario, downside protection kicks in should shares of the XLF breach the effective breakeven point on the spread at $15.77 ahead of June expiration. Options players exchanged more than 415,000 option contracts on the XLF as of 3:10 pm (ET), with put options trading more than 3.5 times to each single call option in play today.
CECO – Career Education Corp. – Shares of the provider of private, for-profit, postsecondary education in the United States jumped 4.8% during the session to a new 52-week high of $35.41 after the firm received an upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘equal weight’ at Barclays Capital today. Options movement on the stock suggests one investor was prepared for the breakout in CECO’s shares. It looks like the investor first banked profits today by selling a previously established long call position in the July contract, and next extended and augmented bullish sentiment on the stock by purchasing fresh calls at a higher strike price. The trader likely purchased 1,900 calls at the July $35 strike f or an average premium of $1.70 each back on March 17, 2010, when shares of…
Ford Rally Fuels Bullish Options Activity
by Phil - March 17th, 2010 4:19 pm
Today’s tickers: F, EEM, DELL, UPS, IYR, JACK, WFC, CLX, SKX & LNC
F – Ford Motor Co. – The automobile manufacturer’s shares are once again trading at a new 52-week high after rallying 4.00% today to $14.02. Upward movement in the price of the underlying stock inspired bullish options trading activity. One investor initiated a plain-vanilla debit call spread to position for continued share price appreciation through expiration in September. The trader bought 5,000 calls at the September $15 strike for a premium of $1.03 per contract, and sold the same number of calls at the higher September $17.5 strike for $0.40 each. The investor paid a net $0.63 per contract for the spread, but could gain as much as $1.87 per contract if Ford’s shares surge 25% over the current price to $17.50 by expiration day. Nearer-term put activity clashes with the bullish move described in the September contract. It looks like investors purchased at least 18,600 put options at the April $13 strike for an average premium of $0.27 apiece. Perhaps put buyers are long shares of the underlying stock and are merely picking up cheap downside protection. But, it could also be the case that traders are buying the puts outright because they expect Ford’s shares to decline ahead of next month’s expiration day. If the latter is true, put-buyers amass profits if shares trade beneath the effective breakeven point on the puts at $12.73 by expiration.
EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF – Shares of the EEM, an exchange-traded fund that mirrors the price and yield performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, rose 1.55% during the session to $42.24. Despite the move up in share price, one investor employed a total of 60,000 option contracts on the fund to establish a bearish risk reversal in the January 2011 contract. It appears the options player shed 30,000 calls at the January 2011 $48 strike for a premium of $1.60 apiece in order to partially finance the purchase of 30,000 puts at the January 2011 $38 strike for $2.88 each. The net cost of the reversal amounts to $1.28 per contract. The massive size of the position may mean the trader is currently long an equivalent number of underlying shares of the fund. If this is the case, the transaction provides downside protection on that position should the EEM’s share price erode ahead of…
UnitedHealth Bulls Have a Fever – the Only Prescription is More Call Options
by Option Review - March 16th, 2010 4:20 pm
Today’s tickers: UNH, BZH, WFC, GE, XLB, WMT, BAC, COF, HOG, ETFC & STJ
UNH – UnitedHealth Group, Inc. – Health and well-being company, UnitedHealth Group, commenced the trading session in the red after Goldman Sachs Group removed the firm from its ‘Conviction Buy List’. However, UNH is still rated as a ‘buy’ at Goldman, and the company’s shares recovered this afternoon to stand 0.60% higher at $32.73. A fire-storm of bullish activity descended on UnitedHealth during the middle of the trading day. Investors gobbled up April contract call options perhaps to position for continued bullish movement in the price of the underlying shares. Options players purchased 42,600 call options at the April $34 strike for an average premium of $0.87 per contract. More than 50,000 calls changed hands at that strike, which blows the 4,333 contracts of open interest at that strike right out of the water. Investors long the calls are positioned to amass profits should UNH’s shares rally another 6.5% to breach the breakeven price of $34.87 by April expiration. Wild-and-crazy options activity on the stock lifted the overall reading of options implied volatility 5% to 43.06% as of 2:05 pm (ET).
BZH – Beazer Homes USA, Inc. – Single- and multi-family homebuilding company, Beazer Homes USA, attracted bullish options players today amid a 4.65% rally in its share price to $4.95. Beazer was upgraded to a ‘buy’ rating and a target share price of $6.25 at Citigroup yesterday. Plain-vanilla call buying took place at the near-term March $5.0 strike where investor picked up 2,100 contracts for an average premium of $0.14 apiece. Investors long these contracts are hoping Beazer’s shares rally another 4.25% from the current price to surpass the effective breakeven point at $5.14 ahead of expiration on Friday. Optimism spread to the April $5.0 strike as traders coveted 2,200 calls for an average premium of $0.32 per contract. Call-buyers in the April contract profit if shares jump 8% and trade above the breakeven price of $5.32 by expiration day next month. The surge in investor demand for options on Beazer Homes lifted the overall reading of options implied volatility on the stock 15.8% to 61.92% this afternoon.
WFC – Wells Fargo & Co. – The bank holding company’s shares increased more than 0.65% during the session to $30.09, inspiring bullish options activity on the stock. Investors positioning for a continued rally in the price…
Iron Condor Nesting in Brazil Index ETF
by Option Review - February 4th, 2010 5:21 pm
Today’s tickers: EWZ, CVX, WFC, GFI, SU, MA, ZION, DAL, AMAG & JWN
EWZ – iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – An iron condor options strategy employed in the February contract on the EWZ implies one investor expects the underlying share price of the fund to stagnate ahead of expiration in two weeks. Shares of the exchange-traded fund, which generally correspond to the price and performance of publicly traded securities in the Brazilian market, are down 5% today to $64.37. Today’s decline merely adds salt to the wounds – The Brazil index ETF has taken a severe beating in the past few months, falling 20.5% since attaining a 52-week high of $80.93 back on December 3, 2009. The iron condor, a strategy utilized by option traders anticipating little movement in the underlying share price, is perhaps one investor’s way of indicating the worst is over and a bottom is close at hand. The iron condor’s construction is essentially the combination of two strangles, or alternatively can be thought of as two credit spreads. On the call side, the investor pockets a net credit of $0.09 per contract by selling 10,000 calls at the February $71 strike for $0.13 apiece, spread against the purchase of 10,000 calls at the higher February $74 strike for $0.04 each. As for the puts, the trader receives a net credit of $0.26 per contract on the sale of 10,000 puts at the February $59 strike for $0.44 each, marked against the purchase of 10,000 puts at the lower February $56 strike for $0.18 apiece. Therefore, the combined credit enjoyed on the iron condor amounts to $0.35 per contract. Maximum retention of the $0.35 credit, or total monetary profits of $350,000, is contingent upon the underlying share price at expiration. EWZ shares must trade within a range of $59.00 to $71.00 in order for the investor to walk away with maximum profits. The investor holding the iron condor is exposed to significant losses if his ‘neutral’ prediction is wrong. Maximum loss potential on the transaction of $2.65 per contract is far greater than the $0.35 credit received for undertaking such risk. But, apparently this trader is confident that shares of the underlying stock will move sideways – at least through February expiration. Perhaps this confidence stems from the fact that losses do not amass to the upside unless shares rebound 10.85% to surpass the upper breakeven…
Testy Tuesday – Have the Markets Become Comfortably Numb?
by Phil - January 19th, 2010 8:08 am
"There is no pain you are receding
A distant ship’s smoke on the horizon.
You are only coming through in waves.
Your lips move but I can’t hear what you’re saying.
When I was a child
I caught a fleeting glimpse
Out of the corner of my eye.
I turned to look but it was gone
I cannot put my finger on it now
The child is grown,
The dream is gone.
but I have become comfortably numb." – Pink Floyd
I have a theory that the markets (and the American people in general) aren’t irrational, they are simply shell-shocked after suffering a very traumatic group financial experience…
To be shell-shocked is to be "mentally confused, upset, or exhausted as a result of excessive stress" and the most common symptoms are: Fatigue, slower reaction times, indecision, disconnection from one’s surroundings, and inability to prioritize – That certainly sounds like our Congress doesn’t it? Combat stress disorder was first diagnosed in WWI, when 10% of the troops were killed and 56% wounded – far worse than had been experienced in previous wars. Our current financial crisis has similarly affected more people than any previous crisis with almost everyone knowing someone who is bankrupt or lost their jobs or homes and almost no one escaped the carnage of the downturn without some financial damage.
Combat fatigue may go a long way to explaining the severe drop-off in volume that has plagued the markets since March, with participation now down to 25% of where we were last January and that leaves us open to the blatant sort of market manipulation that Karl Denninger caught last week as well as the usual nonsense we get daily from HFT programs that drive the market with such precision that we are able to tell how the day is going to go by simply checking our hourly volume targets. Here’s a clip from CNBC where a floor trader discusses market manipulation as a fact of trading (2 mins in).
As Nicholas Santiago points out on In The Money Stocks, "January is usually a very high volume month, yet it has started off the New Year even lighter than the last two months of 2009. Light volume markets are very difficult to short. Hence the old saying, ‘never short a dull market’." Not only is the market volume…
Bears Bombard Wells Fargo with Pessimistic Option Plays
by Option Review - January 14th, 2010 4:26 pm
Today’s tickers: WFC, GS, EWZ, EK, CHRW, BIDU, CBY, ACOR, INTC, EK & EAT
WFC – Wells Fargo & Co. – Bearish traders lumbered around Wells Fargo today purging calls and feasting on out-of-the-money put options. Pessimistic positions were initiated during the trading session despite the 1.5% move up in shares of the underlying to $29.02. Investors piled into put options at the February $23 strike where roughly 23,000 contracts were purchased for an average premium of $0.13 apiece. Perhaps put buyers are merely securing cheap downside protection in case WFC’s shares fall off the proverbial cliff by expiration next month. Traders may be expecting a pull back in shares of the financial firm. If the puts were purchased as an outright bearish bet on the stock, investors long the contracts could turn profits by selling the puts before expiration next month if premium levels on the lots appreciate above $0.13. Medium-term pessimism was apparent in the April contract where traders shed 4,700 calls at the April $32 strike for an average premium of $0.66 each. Additional bearishness took place at the April $28 strike as investors picked up roughly 5,600 puts for $1.55 apiece. Pessimistic trading patterns suggest a bumpy start to the new year for Wells Fargo.
GS – Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. – Bullish activity in the February contract on investment banking firm, Goldman Sachs, suggests shares are poised to pop up in the next few weeks. Shares appreciated slightly during today’s session, rising 0.10% to $169.22 ahead of the closing bell. One optimistic options strategist purchased a debit spread to position for bullish movement in the price of the underlying. The trader bought 10,000 calls at the February $180 strike for a premium of $2.25 apiece, spread against the sale of 10,000 calls at the higher February $185 strike for $1.30 each. The investor shelled out a net $0.95 per contract on the trade. Goldman’s shares must gain approximately 7% from the current price in order for the call-spreader to breakeven at $180.95. Maximum potential profits of $4.05 per contract amass for the trader if GS shares jump 9.3% to $185 by expiration day in February.
EWZ – iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – Shares of the EWZ, which corresponds to the performance of publicly traded securities in the Brazilian market, edged 1.75% lower during the trading day to stand at $74.53. Bearish option traders made…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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