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Friday, June 2, 2023



Will We Hold It Wednesday – Back At Our Bottoms

Wow, what a ride! 

As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, we expected the Russell to lead us higher and we picked up both IWM and TNA out of the gate but, of course, we like our leverage so my 9:46 Alert to Members was:

Bottoms WERE:   Dow 10,200, S&P 1,075, Nas 2,200, NYSE 6,800 and Russell 620.  As I said yesterday, "don’t forget there’s a 5% drop to support below these levels). 

For now, we’ll be watching the 2.5% lines at Dow 9,945, S&P 1,048, S&P 1,145, NYSE 6,630 and Russell 605.

My working theory is RUT is weakest because they are getting killed by cut-off of unemployment checks.  That means that an upside play on the RUT could go very well in case they extend benefits today.  I like TNA $37 calls for $3.20 and IWM $63 calls at $1.25.  These are risky of course because if the extension is defeated we could go further down so take quick profits off the table on half to make a buffer and make sure you do have some disaster hedges.

We bounced right off those 2.5% lines and got our $3 copper signal at 10:24 so we knew we were good to go as we took those calls plus GOOG, BAC, GS, QQQQ, IBM, TXN, AAPL, WFR and BIIB.  Other than BIIB, which is a long-term spread, all of our shopping was done by noon and the rest of the day we just said "Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeee!" as the market went up and up and up – and they haven’t even extended the unemployment benefits yet! 

I have been saying we need to keep an eye on copper $3 during this whole market breakdown as $3 copper is NOT the right price for a Global Depression, which is what the market has been pricing in and at 10:24 as copper hit our bull target, I said to Members: "Copper $3!  That’s like the little snapping sound when the bear takes the bait in the bear trap."  Now we are back testing our "bottoms" which, as I said yesterday, are really the middles of our 5% Rule range but our view of earnings season so far is that we shouldn’t be in the lower end of the range and the recent action, as I summed it up in yesterday’s post, was silly

Now things get serious as we need to hold our levels or it will be time to take the money and run on our short-term bullish plays (and boy, did we have our fun already – both the IWM and TNA calls went up 40% yesterday alone!) and look back at some disaster hedges – pretty much the same ones we’ve been using since the beginning of July

Asia was not sure how to take our finish yesterday but the Nikkei finally stopped falling at 9,278, almost 1,000 points below the Dow as the Yen barely held 87 to the dollar in overnight manipulations.   The Hang Seng went up 1% (222 points) to 20,487, finishing at the day’s high and the Shanghai was more subdued with a 6.66-point gain, but they are the leader back at 2,535 already.  The BSE continues to knock on the door of 18,000 – this is where we ran into trouble last time so we take everything with a grain of salt until we clear ourselves internationally. 

Europe is off to the races this morning with 2% gains across the board as they are a lot less worried about the upcoming stress tests than the MSM alarmists in this country.  FTSE 5,242 is just 8 points under goal, DAX is 51 over at 6,051 and the CAC is 40 over the line at 3,540 – nice recovery guys!  Note today’s moves are NOT reflected in the charts below but you can see we’re looking pretty good all of a sudden – even the Baltic Dry Index found a bottom of some sort:

We are looking strong again pre-market and it’s going to be a dull day for us if we keep going up as we did all our shopping below 10,000 for the past few weeks and nothing looks very cheap to us once we’re over 10,200.  As I keep having to remind people, I’m not bullish – I’m rangish so we tend to go long below 10,000 and go short above 10,500 and unless we get some really strong or really weak earnings, that’s not too likely to change.  For now, we’d be thrilled to establish a base at our "bottoms" that sticks for a change and gives us confidence to do a little more stock picking.  

So watching and waiting is our rule for the day.  We get more earnings from the Financial sector plus the EU stress tests next week so we’ll have to wait and see how much our $3.7Tn taxpayer contribution ($27,000 per taxpayer – so far) to that sector has helped their bottom lines.  Speaking of robbing from the poor to give to the rich – Brett Arends has an excellent article on income disparity, pointing out that the wealth gap in the US is, by far, the worst in the civilized world, far worst than Russia’s oligopoly and rising to a level that can only be compared to Zimbabwe, Argentina and El Salvador when comparing the lot of the average citizen to that of those in positions of power.

Bernanke gives his "Humphrey Hawkins" report to Congress at 2pm and there’s a warm-up hearing on TARP at 10:30.  Mortgage Applications were up 7.6%, countering the negative housing news we’ve been hearing.  MS had a huge beat as did WFC, HCBK and TXT and I hear APPL did OK too so let’s see what sticks today – there’s certainly no reason to be gloomy. 



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Wasn’t kidding. Do you never hold overnight?

exec / overnight
On 3 day weekends following a BIG move, I will take a 1/2 position in the direction of the move. That’s pretty much it !!

JRW, you’re welcome.  Consider it a little payback on behalf of those you provide levels for… which may be me at some point!  It would be nice to have a little more going for me on my calls besides what I’m seeing on 2 charts (1 min, 5 min both with volume).  I’m the first to admit my system is not very sophisticated! 

Pharmboy/Teva:  Thanks.I’ll go with TEVA for my IRA.
On YAHOO ,keep in mind there is $2.70 cash /share and 35% stake in Yahoo! Japan and 29% stake in Alaibaba.com (China) is worth (per Yahoo!)  $8/share which total $10.70 /share so all of remaining Yahoo is worth $ 3.20. That’s dirt cheap,especially for an Internet company. It’s kind of a cheap China play with Yahoo! thrown in at a deep discount.

Thanks Dflam on YHOO.  Should be a good trade then. Just did a few options, and can do more if it looks like the 13.5 area holds for support.

hope we get  a doug kass bounce again

PhiL : I don’t want to be a pest,but on the IRA hedge, would the SDS Jan $37/$45 bull call spread currently priced at $1.93 work? I could sell puts in the IRA if you recommended it since there is lots of cash.I’m looking for an additional 10 % hedge to my existing buy/writes of approx. $ 400 k. so if my calculations are correct, I would need to spend $9650 to get $40k of insurance.
Thank you again for your help & patience with me. If you ever publish on book on hedges,I’ll buy the first one.

Jobs: Would love to see the entrepreneurial spirit rise like a Phoenix; trouble is the nanny state keeps telling everyone that only it can create jobs.   300 years ago, we didn’t have a government safety net to ease the pain (an empty stomach is a strong motivator).  The 12 man construction crew still needs a leader and organizer and a guarantee that they’re going to make more than extended unemployment benefits (oh the unintended consequences of governmental policies).

Small business/Phil
I’d like people to start considering co-ops more – they’re not just for hippie grocery stores; they come in all varieties and can be very effective. The place where I’m retiring, Korea, uses co-ops a lot, in all sorts of fields. Who has the time to read, but Kim Stanley Robinson’s excellent eco-future book "Antarctica" gets into possibilities in a very entertaining fashion. Also, his book "Escape from Kathmandu" is hilarious to old Peace Corps vols such as myself….all the stupid things I did with one or another crazy local….good time, good times.

You wrote yesterday: We have a Buy List under the Portfolio Tab and that is updated as needed and we added 9 more Dow Plays and WFR to that list and THOSE are the trades I track long-term.   If you want to see how they are tracked, go back in time to older Buy Lists and see the updates, which are usually done once every month or so.
Sorry to say I’ve gone to the Portfolio tab and, on the first page, find only articles in "Archive for the ‘Portfolio Review’ Category" from July 7 back to May 1. Looks like I need more help.

You also pointed out the Strategy section, which I read and then forgot about. Rereading it goes along way to clearing up the "what to do with positions" questions I had.

I know you do not support my position on the government’s destruction of the domestic oil business. My position is based solely on fact, and not influenced by opinions of the media.  California ( my state ) has huge reserves that are off limits to drilling,  Some of the largest reserves within the US are in Alaska, and they are now not available because of federal government edict.  The Gulf is now in moratoriunm status, and the production potential is on hold temporariy, but the industry believes it is permanent.  The bottom line is: the United States has enough proven reserves to be self sufficient, but drilling is not permitted because of political and environmental gobbly-gook.  This is facuual and not speculative. Even if we are not allowing domestic production….. then why would we not contract with Canada for their oil sands production as an alternative…. guess what  –  the Chinese beat us to the punch, and we are too late. Nice, eh?

My feeling regarding QE-02 and the Fed activity related thereto, is focused on their buying the debt of the bankruptcy prone states, and other troubled assets.  I do not see the Fed attempting to buy more treasuries, unless there are no buyers. The only solution for the diminished demand for the treasuries is to raise the yield rates, as I believe we do not want to overlook the need for outside money. The rate level is the hook.  TBT should be OK, as sooner or later the rates have to go up to attract suckers. The equities will jump if we get further easing, as this is positive for growth, and if nothing else, will drive inflationary pressure. 

Gel- what ‘fact’ are you basing your opinion on? Everything I’ve read shows that we don’t have enough domestic supply to keep up with demand and that drilling in the pristine artic refuge won’t fix our supply problem.

HI have been away for a few days, sorry I did not respond earlier but thanks for the info on CGA good memory boy,
still in the play and hoping this stk will bounce thanks !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah, you’re right Phil, it definitely is hard to be short-term on oil. Cant help it though, Im no JRW but have been doing VERY well trading oil contracts.  

Obama incouraged offshore drilling until BP blew up a well. The reason it blew up is related to Bush oil men, we need to make the MOST money. I have to deal with people from Wyoning working for Cinthia Lumis who were more interested in sex than regulating safe oil production. Look it up, check it out you fools, eventually the shit hits the fan!

Correct that, until the oil polutes the gulf!

Do you still like LLY as a longer term hold?

 The proven oil reserves that exist domestically, have been documented by many, however I base my data that is provided by the formost expert in the energy sector – Dr. Kent Moors. This guy is well known by all who are engaged in the oil and gas business worldwide. You mentioned you follow the Nymex, then he is somebody you follow. He has stated many times over the US could be energy  dependant on no one, if we only pursued the existing reserves we have domestically. California has enough proven reserves alone in its Monterey Shale deposits, that stretch from San Francisco to Los Angeles to supply our needs for 20 years without the need for any imported oil. The technology exists to extract the oil in a totally environmentaly safe manner ( no chemicals). Occidental Pet is now engaged. Add in the other known reserves in Alaska, the Gulf and East coast offshore and we are energy independant – but for the interference of our own government. All this consternation about imbalance of payments for energy imports is BS – we do not need to import one single barrel. We need to export the ignorant politicians, IMO

Deano, No, I like BMY, MRK and GSK better.  LLY is only until year end at most.  Too much uncertainty in their pipe.
KG/qcmike – I looked into King Pharma (KG) and there is nothing there that really excites me.  They have a pain killer up for review in Q4, but it is a rebrand of a drug, so not much to be excited about.  They could be a takeover target for a mid-tier pharma, but there is nothing that is driving the growth (which is falling).  Here is their most recent few Q data on their big guns;

Branded Prescription Pharma Revenue ($M)



Flector® Patch





Total Segment Revenue

In short, they are all going DOWN.  I would rather risk money in something like QCOR (makes money) or CRIS (potential to have one winner in 19 tries).  Anyway, that’s what I think.

To one entrepreneur from an another – With good preparation and a spirit of enthusiasm, coupled with the desire to succeed, and the esprit de corps in full dress, it prevails every time. I have taken on the bigest of the big and proved it could be done. The big guys are complacent and do not have the agility to move as quickly as you, and they take their position for granted – very vulnerable in all cases  The new guy on the street with new and better ideas is at an advantage. .I wish you much success, and I would expect no less!

Well, let’s vote ’em all out gel!  You, me, 1020 and JRW to the govenor’s mansion and then beyond (I will let you decide who’s whom)!  If we can turn around this state, then the US should be easy! 

shadow… Safe sex and safe oil production are not interchangeable… I do not see the correlation.

Phil, I read, re-read, and then printed out your 6:43 post to Dflam on hedging. Very nicely laid out, and very much appreciated. Why in the world does hedging seem so counterintuitive, so unnatural? Like doing acrobatics. Are we that programmed to think the market will only go up?

Not going to cloud anyone’s judgement, will keep my thoughts to myself….take a look at the 3 year chart on MA….ok i’ll say it…scary if you ask me. Lots of charts bouncing against the 50 day, recent action doesn’t evoke much confidence. If markets take off from here it would be the ultimate head fake.

Corning announces new capacity investments

Apple to challenge top chip buyer in 2012, says iSuppli


Some option issues have 2 sets with different prices, e.g. VZ has 2 sets of 2012 $20 LEAPs, one trading at $8.5 and the other at only $6.7 (almost no premium!).  Why is that?  What’s the difference?  Thanks!!!

You are forgetting something.  When we burn the oil, we put carbon in the air that will affect the climate of the planet and thus will affect the lives of or kids and grandkids for a long time to come.  Is that factored into the equation.  Also, Shale oil cannot be extracted in a clean safe manner.  It uses tons of water and I wouild be surprised if it used no chemicals.  In other words, we need to move off of oil.
He has stated many times over the US could be energy  dependant on no one, if we only pursued the existing reserves we have domestically. California has enough proven reserves alone in its Monterey Shale deposits, that stretch from San Francisco to Los Angeles to supply our needs for 20 years without the need for any imported oil. The technology exists to extract the oil in a totally environmentaly safe manner ( no chemicals)

The domestic oil business has gotten a free ride from the government and society for the past 100 years.  I could say a  lot, but I will give you one item.  The price of oil does not accout for the massive environmental damage that occurs through its usage.  We don’t properly tax oil so  that we all have cheap fuels, and so that the oil companies can continue to make the maximum profits for as long as possible and take a blind eye to the fact that posterity will inherit a damaged world.  It is more of the same- stealing from the future so that we have a largess today.  It is abhorrent. 

Thanks for the infor,  nice work.

I’ll look him up Gel. Although I definitely am a liberal guy, Im by no means anti-drilling. My father’s business is in the sister industry of waterwell drilling. I am one of the believers in climate change and feel we need to spend heavily in R & D for alternatives (ie non food based ethanol, biodiesel, ect).

Fabregas/VZ options:
The VZ options (adjusted) reflect the .24 shares of FTR that VZ holders got as a spinoff of VZ landline business to FTR.The other option is the option that was in existed prior to the spinoff and will be priced lower. 

BIDU if anyone is interested, from an analyst at a small research firm:
Baidu, Inc. (Hold)
While BIDU’s Results and Guidance Beat Consensus, Upside to Stock Price Becomes Limited
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU, $73.31, $25,581mln Market Cap, Hold, $79.00 Price Target)
BIDU (Hold) reported strong 2Q10 results that beat sell-side consensus estimates and provided 3Q10 guidance exceeding consensus expectations. We believe the earnings results and guidance have unified sell-side consensus and buy-side expectations. The unification, in our opinion, could signal that the stock has reached its upside potential. Therefore, while we believe BIDU can grow significantly, as we have modeled, due to aggressive sales force expansion and improvement in its search technology, we believe upside to the stock is limited. We maintain our Hold rating and price target of $79. In addition, we believe there is a fundamental issue in BIDU’s business operation — the lack of a thorough and effective system to prevent BIDU from becoming involved in illegal businesses conducted online, which presents an ongoing risk to the business and stock.
· 2Q10 results exceed Street expectations, credited to FIFA event — BIDU reported strong 2Q10 results with revenue of $282.3M, 48% Q/Q growth and 74.4% Y/Y growth, above the high-end of guidance of $268.1M – $274.0M and the Street at $276.7M and our $272.5M estimate. GAAP EPS of $0.35 beat consensus of $0.31 but was in line with our estimate. The revenue outperformance was driven by the World Cup event, which generated additional traffic that led to a higher number of clicks. BIDU ended the quarter with an average of 254K active online customers, 15% growth from 1Q10 or 33K new customers while ARPU increased about 29% Q/Q to RMB7,533 from RMB5,852 in 1Q10.
· 3Q10 guidance above consensus — BIDU guided 3Q10 revenue to a range of $324.4M – $333.3M, representing 15% – 18% Q/Q growth, versus consensus of $321.6M (16% Q/Q growth) and our estimate of $325.2M (19% Q/Q growth).
· Tweaking top line, 2011E EPS remains unchanged — We have made slight upward adjustments to our top line projections. For 2010, we slightly raise our revenue estimate to $1,174.0M from $1,147.6M and for 2011 to $1,660.0M from $1,610.0M, representing growth of 79.2% and 41.3% Y/Y, respectively. Our EPS is unchanged at $2.08 in 2011, and our 2010 EPS estimate goes to $1.45 from $1.44.
· Unification of views regarding BIDU’s growth from both sides of the investment community — We believe prior to BIDU’s earnings, the Street consensus was relatively more conservative in its projections for BIDU’s growth than the buy-side (consensus was based on the company’s guidance, which turned out to be conservative). However, post earnings, we believe the gap is likely bridged. As such, we believe the expectation for BIDU’s growth could be fully reflected in its stock price, and upside is limited.
· Valuation — We maintain our Hold rating, as we remain concerned with regulation risks pertaining to BIDU’s business. Our $79 price target is based on a 38X PE multiple to our 2011E EPS estimate of $2.08.

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