Posts Tagged
‘YHOO’
by Andrew Wilkinson - February 22nd, 2010 4:20 pm
Today’s tickers: SD, DTV, YHOO, SLXP, MDVN, PDCO, XLE, LOW, AIG & CA
SD - SandRidge Energy, Inc. – A bullish risk reversal on natural gas and oil exploration and development company, SandRidge Energy, Inc., suggests one investor may be positioning for a rally in the value of the underlying shares by expiration in June. SandRidge’s shares slipped 0.50% during the session to stand at $8.52. The trader sold 10,000 put options at the June $7.5 strike for an average premium of $0.53 apiece in order to offset the cost of buying 10,000 calls at the higher June $9.0 strike for $0.90 each. The net cost of the reversal play amounts to $0.37 per contract. Shares of the energy firm must rally approximately 10% over the current day’s price in order for the trader to break even on the transaction at $9.37. Profits are available to the upside beyond the breakeven point at $9.37 through expiration day in June.
DTV - The DIRECTV Group, Inc. – Investors sold strangles on the subscription television services company today amidst a 0.55% rally in the price of the underlying stock to $33.83. The use of the short strangle strategy implies traders anticipate reduced volatility in the price of DTV shares and expect the share price to remain range-bound through expiration in June. Throughout the trading session options traders sold approximately 15,000 calls at the June $35 strike for an average premium of $1.77 apiece in combination with the sale of 15,000 puts at the lower June $30 strike for a premium of $0.78 each. Strangle-sellers pocket a gross premium of $2.55 per contract, which they keep if Directv’s share price trades within the range of $30.00 to $35.00 through expiration. The premium received on the transaction provides limited protection against losses should DTV’s shares swing outside of the strike prices described. Stranglers accumulate losses if shares of Directv trade above the upper breakeven price of $37.55, or if shares decline beneath the lower breakeven point at $27.45, by expiration day.
YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. – The slight 0.15% decline in the price of Yahoo’s shares to $15.55 today did not some options traders from establishing bullish stances on the stock. One individual initiated a bullish risk reversal to position for a rebound in shares by expiration in January of 2011. The investor sold 15,000 put options at the January 2011 $15 strike for a premium of $1.56 apiece in…

Tags: AIG, CA, DTV, LOW, MDVN, PDCO, SD, SLXP, XLE, YHOO
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
by Andrew Wilkinson - February 10th, 2010 5:01 pm
Today’s tickers: PBR, HOG, BMY, FXE, KFT, YHOO, MOS, NTGR, BIDU & DIS
PBR – Petroleo Brasileiro SA ADR – Shares of Brazil’s state-owned oil and natural gas company rose 1.20% to $40.02 this afternoon, adding to the nearly 8% recovery in shares since Friday February 5, 2010, up to an intraday high of $40.25. But, painfully recent memories of the nearly 30% decline in the price per PBR-share from $52.88 on December 1, 2009, to a six-month low of $37.31 on February 8, 2010, have one investor casting doubts that this week’s rebound in shares will last. The investor initiated a ratio put spread to hedge against further share price erosion through February expiration. The trader bought 10,000 puts at the February $39 strike for a premium of $0.50 apiece, and sold 20,000 puts at the lower February $36 strike for a premium of $0.10 each. The net cost of the pessimistic play amounts to $0.30 per contract. Thus, the investor is positioned to amass profits should PBR’s shares slip beneath the breakeven price of $38.70 by expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $2.70 per contract are available to the trader if PetroBras’ share price falls 10% from the current price of $40.02 to reach $36.00 by expiration next Friday.
HOG – Harley-Davidson, Inc. – The motorcycle manufacturer’s shares declined 0.25% to $22.67 today prompting pessimistic options trades in the March contract. Investors purchased put spreads to position for potential share price erosion through expiration next month. Approximately 12,500 puts were picked up at the March $22 strike for an average premium of $1.08 apiece, spread against the sale of 12,500 puts at the lower March $19 strike for a premium of $0.25 each. The debit put spreads cost traders a net $0.83 per contract. Maximum potential profits of $2.17 per contract accumulate for put-spreaders if HOG’s share price plummets more than 16% from the current value of the stock to reach $19.00 by expiration.
BMY – Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. – Pharmaceutical company, Bristol-Myers Squibb, attracted bullish options traders today despite the 1.25% decline in the price of its shares to $23.94. One investor is optimistic that BMY’s shares will rally approximately 9% in the next five months to June expiration. The trader purchased a debit call spread to position for potential bullish movement in the price of the underlying stock. It appears the investor purchased 5,900 calls at the June $24 strike for a…

Tags: BIDU, BMY, DIS, FXE, HOG, KFT, MOS, NTGR, PBR, YHOO
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
by Phil - January 29th, 2010 8:30 am
At 12:52 yesterday I officially went long on the markets.
This could be a big mistake (in fact, that’s what I said to Members at the time) but the logic was Bernanke would be confirmed (he was) and that we’d have a big GDP number today. Now the reason we’re going to have a big GDP number is because we will have a big build in inventories (we discussed this effect on Jan 14th) as manufacturers got all excited and produced goods that nobody bought and, because it is assumed that goods are only produced in accurate anticipation of demand - this kind of nonsense comes in a positive to our GDP.
Production collapsed during the recession as companies sold from their existing inventories but didn’t order new goods, because of uncertainty about future customer demand. These inventory declines dragged on GDP for six consecutive quarters, the longest streak on record since 1948. The turnaround in inventoris could give us a Q4 GDP in the 5% range. Rational economists prefer to look at final sales to domestic purchasers, a subset of GDP that doesn’t include inventories and trade, to better gauge U.S. economic activity. That category is likely to grow at only a 2% pace, similar to the third quarter but shhhhhhh! - we don’t want to wake the rational economist - who has clearly been asleep since the the mid 90s…
So we went bullish (speculatively), not because we are going to be excited by a 5% GDP number that makes us look like some overheating Third World economy even as another 2M people lost their jobs in Q4. No, we’re bullish because we cynically believe that the sheeple are clueless and will stampede into this number as if the US is recovering and nobody told them until this morning.
Meanwhile, I have a message for the sheeple: Please keep selling us your Google stock. I think this chart of the day is self-explanatory but you never know. This is a chart of the amount of money Google makes per employee, per quarter. Currently they are generating $1.34 MILLION dollars for each person they hire (and they’ve been hiring). For a comparison, Yahoo generates $500,000 per employee yet GOOG currently has a p/e ratio that is 1/2 of Yahoo’s.
Microsoft’s 98,000 employees generate $623,000 each, ORCL’s 86,000 employees pull in just $267,000 each. It’s not a definitve indicator but consider how well they have managed that number through the recession, which…

Tags: AAPL, AMZN, CCJ, EWJ, FXI, GDP, GOOG, MSFT, ORCL, SO, YHOO
Posted in Uncategorized | 225 Comments »
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 30th, 2009 4:10 pm
Today’s tickers: RCL, GE, YHOO, XLF, X, FCX, AIG, CF, JAVA & UAUA
RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. – Bearish option traders clawed-aboard global cruise company, Royal Caribbean, today despite the 0.5% increase in shares during the trading session to $24.24. A large-volume risk reversal in the June 2010 contract indicates rougher seas could cloud RCL’s horizon. One investor sold 20,000 calls at the June 30 strike for an average premium of 1.70 apiece, spread against the purchase of the same number of put options at the lower June 20 strike for 2.25 each. The net cost of the reversal amounts to 55 cents per contract. The investor responsible for the trade is likely long shares of the underlying stock. If this is the case, the long put position established today, provides downside protection beneath the effective breakeven point at $19.45. Conversely, if shares surge during the next seven months, the underlying stock position will be called away from the trader if shares exceed $30.00 by expiration in June.
GE - General Electric Co. – A sold straddle on General Electric this afternoon indicates one investor expects shares to settle at $16.00 by expiration in June of 2010. Shares edged slightly lower by less than 0.50% to $15.88 in late afternoon trading. The trader looked to the June 16 strike to sell approximately 5,000 calls for a premium of 1.61 apiece and 5,000 puts at the same strike for 1.89 each. The gross premium pocketed by the investor amounts to 3.50 per contract. The trader keeps the full 3.50 premium on the straddle if shares center at $16.00 through expiration. The investor may take profits ahead of expiration by buying back the short straddle for less than 3.50 per contract. Premiums on both calls and puts are elevated today because of the 6% increase in option implied volatility on the stock to 35.50%. The trader benefits from lower volatility on GE and from eroding time value of option premiums. Both factors drag option premiums lower and allow the trader to buy back the straddle in a profitable manner.
YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. – The 0.5% decline in shares of the internet company to $14.93 did not deter one investor from taking a bullish stance in the April 2010 contract today. It appears the trader put on a ratio call spread to position for a rebound in shares by expiration. The investor purchased 2,500 calls at…

Tags: AIG, CF, FCX, GE, JAVA, RCL, UAUA, X, XLF, YHOO
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 20th, 2009 4:24 pm
Today’s tickers: WFC, IYT, RYL, YHOO, XLE, MU, ADCT, KBH, DELL, NE & GPS
WFC - Wells Fargo & Co. – Shares of the financial holding company surrendered 1.5% today to stand at $27.88. One investor initiated a sold straddle on WFC in the April 2010 contract. The trader sold 10,000 calls at the April 32 strike for 1.59 apiece in conjunction with the sale of 10,000 now in-the-money puts at the same strike for 5.81 each. The gross premium on the transaction amounts to 7.40 per contract. The investor will retain the full premium if shares settle at $32.00 by expiration. The premium received acts as a buffer against losses in the event that shares swing in either direction away from the $32.00-level. However, the trader will accumulate losses if shares breach the upper breakeven price of $39.40, or if shares decline beneath the lower breakeven point at $24.60, by expiration in April.
IYT - iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index ETF – The exchange-traded fund, which measures the performance of the transportation sector of the U.S. equity market, appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after one investor initiated a bearish put play. Shares of the fund moved 0.5% lower to $70.53 during the session. The trader established a put spread by purchasing 5,000 puts at the December 70 strike for 1.80 each, and by selling the same number of puts at the lower December 65 strike for 40 cents apiece. The net cost of the trade amounts to 1.40 per contract and provides downside protection beneath the breakeven price of $68.60 down to $65.00 through December’s expiration.
RYL - The Ryland Group, Inc. – Shares of homebuilder and mortgage-finance company, Ryland Group, declined nearly 4% this afternoon to stand at $18.86. Investors exchanging options on the stock today spread pessimistic sentiment through to expiration December. Traders sold 10,000 calls at the December 19 strike for an average premium of 1.10 apiece. The full 1.10 premium pocketed by investors is retained in full as long as shares of RYL remain below $19.00 through expiration day. Call-sellers do not seem to expect that shares of Ryland will recover before the start of 2010.
YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. – We observed two different option strategies in play on Yahoo this afternoon. A large-volume sold strangle in the January 2011 contract suggests shares are likely to remain stagnant through expiration. The transaction involved the sale…

Tags: ADCT, DELL, GPS, IYT, KBH, MU, NE, RYL, WFC, XLE, YHOO
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
by Andrew Wilkinson - October 22nd, 2009 7:32 am
Today’s tickers: CAT, EEM, FITB, VALE, SLM, EXPE, SNDK, SLM & YHOO
CAT - Caterpillar, Inc. – A long-term bullish play on the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators proved highly profitable for one investor who banked hefty gains in the January 2010 contract this afternoon. Shares of CAT are currently up less than 0.5% to $59.80 on an upgrade to ‘neutral’ from ‘sell’ at Goldman Sachs. It appears the trader originally purchased 15,000 calls at the January 55 strike for 3.50 apiece, and 20,000 calls at the higher January 60 strike for 1.95 each, back on September 25, 2009. Today the investor sold the January 55 strike calls for 6.90 and the January 60 strike calls for 3.85 per contract. Net profits to the trader amount to $8.9 million. Elsewhere, it seems a large bullish call position was partially financed through the sale of put options. It looks like a chunk of 25,000 put options sold for 68 cents apiece at the December 50 strike at the same exact moment 40,000 call options were purchased for 1.50 each at the February 70 strike. The investor responsible for the trade likely expects shares of CAT to remain above $50.00 through expiration in December. This short sale partially offsets the cost of taking a massive bullish stance through expiration in February.
EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF – Shares of the emerging markets exchange-traded fund are trading more than 1% higher today to stand at the current price of $41.45. A 100,000-lot straddle caught our attention in the November contract this afternoon. It appears one investor has taken advantage of lower volatility on the EEM by purchasing a long straddle. The transaction involved the purchase of 50,000 calls at the November 41 strike for 1.53 apiece, and the purchase of 50,000 puts at the same strike for 1.21 each. The net cost of the trade amounts to 2.74 per contract. Volatility on the EEM has fallen to 27%, the lowest reading on the fund since August of 2008. Perhaps the long-straddle player expects volatility to jump higher before the options expire in November. The nature of the strategy is such that he will benefit given a sufficient shift in the price of the EEM in either direction. Profits are available if shares swing either above the breakeven point to the upside at $43.74, or if shares dip beneath the lower breakeven price…

Tags: CAT, EEM, EXPE, FITB, SLM, SNDK, VALE, YHOO
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 9th, 2009 4:27 pm
Today’s tickers: ACI, MGM, EWJ, HSY, YHOO, TIE & GLD
ACI - Far-term option bulls were not discouraged from establishing optimistic positions on the coal producer today despite the nearly 2% decline in shares during the trading session to $17.84. Investors looking for shares to rally significantly by the start of 2010 purchased 2,000 calls at the January 23 strike for an average premium of 70 cents apiece. ACI would need to rally 33% higher for individuals long these calls to breakeven at $23.70 by expiration. Option traders also picked up 2,000 calls at the April 2010 22 strike for 1.50 per contract. Finally, curious call spreads appeared in the January 2011 contract. The trades were a bit blurred but it seems likely that the activity represents a ratio call spread. If this is the case, the investor responsible for the trade purchased about 3,000 calls at the January 30 strike for 1.40 each. These contracts were spread against the sale of some 6,000 calls at the higher January 35 strike for 93 cents premium. The trader receives a net credit of 46 cents on the transaction. He will retain the full credit and add to that amount if shares rally higher than $30.00 by expiration. Maximum potential profits on the spread amount to 5.00 (excluding the credit received today), achieved in the event that shares of ACI surge a whopping 96% from the current price by expiration in January 2011. – Arch Coal, Inc. –
MGM - The casino operator attracted bullish bets by option traders today amid a more than 7.5% rally in shares to $10.13. Notable near-term call interest was apparent at the September 11 strike price where more than 7,100 lots exchanged hands. Approximately 5,500 of the contracts were purchased for an average premium of 23 cents apiece. Investors long the calls will begin to accrue profits if shares of MGM can rise 11% higher to surpass the breakeven point at $11.23 by expiration in less than two weeks. Traders clearly favored MGM calls over puts during the session as evidenced by the call-to-put ratio of more than 3-to-1 on the stock today. – MGM Mirage, Inc. –
EWJ - The EWJ jumped onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after one investor juggled massive chunks of calls on the stock. Shares of the exchange-traded fund are currently up 0.5% to $10.18. The trader originally purchased 50,000…

Tags: ACI, EWJ, GLD, HSY, MGM, TIE, YHOO
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
by Andrew Wilkinson - August 21st, 2009 4:14 pm
Today’s tickers: CAT, S, INTC, YHOO, GE, XHB & HAL
CAT - Caterpillar, Inc. – Shares of the world’s largest maker of construction equipment have gained nearly 3.5% during the trading session to stand at $47.06 despite reports of accelerated declines in machinery sales to retailers during the month of July. At first glance, the 20,000 put options purchased at the January 2010 40 strike price for 2.72 apiece, looks bearish. However, we believe the puts are likely tied to the acquisition of an equivalent number of shares of the underlying stock, and is thus a bullish play. The purchase of married put options provides the investor with downside protection through expiration day in January. This individual is hoping to see the price of CAT appreciate, but is immune from losses beneath the breakeven share price of $37.28. We note that the puts are deep out-of-the-money. Thus, downside protection would not kick in unless the investor had already experienced a more than 20% decline in the value of the underlying shares.
S - Sprint Nextel Corp. – The communications company edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon following a burst of options activity in the November contract. Shares of the firm are currently higher by about 2.5% to $3.92. Investors essentially established short straddles at the November 4.0 strike price by shedding 15,000 calls for a premium of 45 cents apiece and selling 15,000 puts for about 50 cents each. Such positioning indicates that traders expect shares of Sprint to settle near $4.00 by expiration. If this occurs, investors will retain the 95 cent gross premium received on the sale. The premium pocketed today compensates traders for bearing the risk that the stock shifts away from the $4.00 level. If shares were to rally higher, investors are exposed to potentially unlimited losses above the breakeven point to the upside at $4.95. On the other hand, losses would begin to amass to the downside if shares slip beneath $3.05 by expiration.
INTC - Intel Corp. – The semiconductor chip maker has enjoyed a 0.5% increase in shares today to $18.80, but a bullish reversal play on the stock suggests one investor is positioning for more significant gains. It appears that the trader shed 8,800 puts at the January 2010 17.5 strike price for a premium of 1.13 apiece in order to finance the purchase of 8,800 calls at the higher January…

Tags: CAT, GE, HAL, INTC, S, XHB, YHOO
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
by Phil - August 19th, 2009 8:27 am
Well, you can’t say I didn’t tell you so…
Yesterday’s post was all about what total nonsense the move up was and, per usual, the whole thing was taken away in the futures, where retail investors have no chance to profit from it. Of course, this market isn’t being run for your benefit and if you wait for Cramer to tell you what to do, then you are pretty screwed (and more so if you listen to him). Yesterday our boy Jim fell off the wagon and declared victory for the Bulls saying: "The bears must be stunned and confused, flummoxed even" and made fun of those of us who worry about "facts" and "fundamentals" as we trade. "Every argument the bears had for selling," Cramer said, "has been totally rebuffed by this great market." Cramer, you are not just an idiot, you are a dangerous idiot!
As the more rational David Fry points out in his "Spin City" post:
So we got a healthy bounce today but it didn’t undo Friday and Monday’s collective damage. We were a little short-term oversold and a bounce shouldn’t surprise even though economic and company news wasn’t great. But, the “better than expected” spin was in for retailers which frankly was laughable. And, golly, banks reported losses on credit cards were slowing (maybe because Chucky’s not shopping?) which was seen as a positive. Homebuilders disappointed (oops, scratch that)… a “worse than expected” report was spun positively because more single family homes were built. I wonder about that since there are too many of them, aren’t there? But that’s the way things are these days.
What a stark contrast between a sane and insane take on yesterday’s action. In Monday’s post we targeted a drop to Dow 9,100, S&P 980, Nasdaq 1,950, NYSE 6,400 and Russell 550 and in my 9:48 Alert to Members yesterday I set the bounce targets at Dow 9,200, S&P 986, Nas 1,946, NYSE 6,400 and RUT 555 but noting they were rough numbers that I was eyeballing on the fly, following our 5% rule. Those levels were beat across the board but on such low volume that I called an audible and we stayed bearish, taking aggressive short positions like the DIA Aug $93 puts at $1.50 which, unfortunately, didn’t make our double down target of $1 but should do well this morning. We also took short shots at COF, HPQ (backspread), RTP (looking very good this morning!), SRS (our old friend),…

Tags: Buffett, CHINA, COF, DIA, DUG, HPQ, JPM, RTH, RTP, SPY, SRS, YHOO
Posted in Uncategorized | 199 Comments »
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
by ilene - July 29th, 2009 11:20 am
Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

The official details of the Microsoft-Yahoo deal aren’t much different than the leaks we reported last night.
Here’s our take:
- The deal is significantly worse than expected for Yahoo, as the company will get no money upfront.
- The deal is positive for Microsoft, but largely because Microsoft was nowhere in search without it. Saving the upfront payment is also a help.
- Ironically, the deal will likely be positive for Google, which will now likely benefit from months of purgatory as Microsoft and Yahoo work to clear regulatory scrutiny and then go through the massive challenge of trying to integrate their sales forces and technology. Google itself will also now be able to argue persuasively that there is a big, viable (if discombobulated) competitor in the market.
Conceptually, the idea of Microsoft and Yahoo combining forces is smart. Neither alone has enough share of the search market to be a "must buy," and search relevance and pricing improves with scale. Both companies would likely just continue to lose share ad infinitum without a deal, so they have little to lose by working together. And Yahoo will gain some cost savings, at least for a while.
That said, we think the structure of the deal could end up being a disaster.
The deal calls for Yahoo to handle sales and Microsoft to handle technology. This separation of responsibilities is likely to create headache upon headache for both sides. When a Yahoo client is unhappy with the technology execution, will Yahoo salespeople call Microsoft engineers to complain? When Microsoft is unhappy with the way Yahoo is selling search, will Microsoft’s engineers call Yahoo to complain? When the combination misses targets, will investors call Microsoft or Yahoo to complain? (Both?) When Microsoft licenses Bing to Ask or AOL, will Yahoo’s salespeople sell premium search for those companies, too? What if Ask and AOL are unhappy? Who will they call to complain?
In our opinion, sales and technology are way too tightly linked in this business to split responsibilities between two huge companies that each have other things to worry about. We think the execution of the deal will be a nightmare.
See Also: First Take On Microsoft-Yahoo: OK For Microsoft, Awful For Yahoo
Notes From Yahoo-Microsoft Conference Call On Search Deal (YHOO, MSFT)
…

Tags: Advertising, Big Tech, media, Microsoft, Microsoft-Yahoo!, MSFT, Online, Search, Video, Yahoo!, YHOO
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter