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Saturday, February 24, 2024

AVI BioPharma – AVII

I hate biotech speculation but this is a nice little company that got featured in Barron’s today and actually checks out nicely.


It has a few similar items in pipeline on some good stuff, including bird flu and bioterror and it looks like they will get some government funding even though they have enough cash for several more years even if no revenues materialize.

They are very small and shunned by institutions at the moment but the CEO and a director were buying in August and September when the stock was at $2.20 and no one sold as the stock went up to $4 and back to $3.20 where it is currently resting against its 30 day ma.

As I lightly traded stock with no options, this one is generally against my religion but I always have one or two of these taking up 10% of my total porfolio.

This stock can be day traded on Monday as the article will give it a pop but the overall view calls for a correction as there are still about 30M shares held by individual investors who have sat on this stock at $2 since mid ’04 who may be looking to move on.

Since I have a little room I’m going to hope for a drop back to the 50 dma of $2.80, looking for a bounce off the 200 dma of $2.50 but buying any turn back over $2.80 once it goes below.

At that point I would take about 5,000 shares and put them away for a rainy day. I will put a stop in @ $2.50 (200 dma) and a trailing 10% stop in at $4.

The stock is currently overbought but I don’t think it’s due to Barron’s article as the buying action was during the first 3 weeks of October. What I most like about this stock is that it gave very clear buy signals on October 1st and very clear sell signals on 11/1, just before the drop – that’s the kind of stock I like to be in!

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