RIMM went up to $65 so I shorted them again. I think there is actually some form of crack in those Blackberrys otherwise I just cannot explain why, no matter how bad the news, people just keep buying this stock.
The argument that RIMM will not be shut down is based on the logic that NTP doesn’t want to shut them down because they will be cutting off their own revenue stream.
Now RIMM claims it has a software “workaround” that will enable them to keep Blackberries on-line no matter what. But this “workaround” changes NTPs position substantially. It would mean RIMM would not be paying them royalties on a go forward basis so NTP can only collect on what has already been stolen by RIMM.
That means their LOGICAL tactic is to really put the screws to RIMM and get as much of the $1Bn they have in the bank asap! By declaring they have a workaround, RIMM has announced that NTP has no future with them as partners (even the unwilling kind) so we are now into a very, very ugly divorce where the kids (we Blackberry users) will just suffer in the middle.
$65 represents the falling 50 dma that has held up as a strong barrier since 11/21. I see the $65 put as a pretty low risk trade for a couple of days but if it breaks $65 I am out of it.