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Monday, February 6, 2023

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Thursday Thoughts

Big Stock Day today – at least until Greenspan stops it (I am praying he has something else to do today!). The ECB raised rates, upping the ante on the global money grab.

Gold punched through $500 hard today so GG is back in favor, especially after yesterday’s silly drop. I want to see how it challenges the 50 dma at $19.75 before I jump back in but it may just go straight up today. I will be looking at the $20 calls with a .50 premium or perhaps the Jan ’07 $15s with just a $1.80 premium that can be worked off by selling shorter calls (the Jan $22.50 is .50).

Boy did Cramer hit a home run with Decker. This is part of the Oprah thesis (anything Oprah likes gets a boost) and I should have seen this yesterday but I was all distracted by BCRX.

According to Yahoo’s article on Monday, Oprah’s favorite things list includes:

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)Video-enabled iPod
Deckers Outdoor (Nasdaq: DECK)Ugg Australia “Uptown” boot
Nike (NYSE: NKE)Free 5.0 iD running shoes
Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL)The “Oprah” sweater
Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM)BlackBerry 7105T
SonyVAIO FJ notebook computer
United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS)Delivery service for all of Oprah’s gifts
Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM)Croissants

I don’t think much of the thesis in general but all the stocks were worth a look and DECK was certainly due for a bounce.

FD disappointed – look for a drop.

AAPL is a buy again, I really don’t know why people sell it… The p/e is just 28, revenue is up 70% from ’04 and earnings are up 400%. I know – “It can’t last,” well if it comes back to $65 I am going to get in big but 2 down days in a row is the most it’s had since the first week in October when it went from $55 to $47 in about 7 sessions. Don’t those people who sold at $47.87 on 10/12 feel silly… Apple did flatline last December but then jumped 30% in January.

SNDK may bounce back but I really don’t like the stock. If it breaks the 50 dma of $53 it has a chance to get back over $55 but I will be shocked if it hits $60 again.

FRK (a Trade of the Day) is flying up on earnings which doubled in the 4th Qtr. This company might really fly up but we have to watch guidance in a dicy housing market.

Casino stocks tanked from reports that Macau’s growth is slowing from 8% to 3%. Who can tell what’s going on with Chineese economic reports but HET got whacked foolishly with everyone else even though they are not in China. LVS is heavily in China so today may be a good day to exit yesterday’s trade of the day.

GM wants to find a floor but zero is just so far away. Meanwhile your father keeps adding shares to his pension fund because it was such a good stock in the 60s. Maybe we will be doing that with Google 20 years from now, heck I keep buying Microsoft and that is just so 90s.

USG, with a p/e of 6 looks like a safe buy as it tests its 50 dma of $61. They went bankrupt back in 2001 but so did KMart and look at them now… This company has a p/e of 1/3 of their group and is looking to grow earnings and sales by about 20% this year.

Google is coming back with a vengance this morning as is Yahoo. Maybe this internet thing isn’t just a fad… Still too wacky for me to jump into.

Great read on Oil Sands – very important to understand to get a macro perspecive on Oil:
http://gigajoules.blogspot.com/2005/11/oh-canadas-oil-sands.html

PDS did a nice reverse yesterday, all oils may come back in this rally.

COP (I own $65 calls) looks way oversold.

SHLD may be right for a buy. If TGT and WMT are up, I will go in on this.

Finally a good article on Skype. It was really dragging Ebay down (I own it).

JDSU is doing a reverse split which should be good for it, missed it yesterday.

ANN says sales up 12%, even with bad retail environment this should go up even though it has already had a great run.

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