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Wednesday Thoughts

Oil is coming back thanks to our friends in Iran pushing for production cuts at the January OPEC meeting. Whether they pull this off or not the rhetoric will keep the price over $57 unless another credible minister negates it (and why would they?).

Natural gas is not going up with oil, indicating that it is way overpriced so I am staying with my short on ECA at least until it tests its 200 dma at $42.50.

SU came back with a vengance today, retracing almost all of yesterday’s loss. I’m hoping it hits $65 where I will be comfortable shorting it again.

HET marches on but last January was a disaster for this stock so I will wait until next month to establish a position.

My Apple $75 put is one of the most volatile options I have ever owned, just today it was down .10 and up .50 (15%) on relatively small movements in the stock.

I covered my WFMI ’07 put with a current $80 call and picked up a quick 15% which I will sell in a day or two to offset 1/2 of my put loss. I think much like GNW, this stock will sell off on the actual S&P inclusion but I am hedging just in case. I said yesterday I was being greedy and I was! I would have cleaned up if I had taken the 10% for the $145 calls yesterday. This is another great example of do as I say, not as I do…

SNDK is showing some weakness at $65 but I would like it to close below $64 to really say it’s on a downward path. The 50 dma is way down at $56 and the 200 dma is way down at $38! The company has great 30% growth but a lot of competition coming around the bend and I just don’t see them keeping it up. This stock is up 25% in 8 sessions and looking strained.

LNUX is still showing strength but I would look to take the money and run at $1.80 for sure.

Yesterday’s TOTD EAGL picked up a nice 4% today with the May $30 up to $9.30 for a clean 10% in 24 hrs. Do not be greedy if you are in this, place a tight stop around $9 on the option to ensure 7%. Look to exit at $10 no matter what unless you sold the $40 Jan calls for .80 in which case you can afford to enjoy the ride.


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