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Told You So

Yeah they tried to sucker us in again but, lucky for us, we are now wise to this game.

It all looked OK until right at the end there when the Nasdaq finally led the market – only lower!

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I had a great time with my oil trades today. The Valero rule came up aces again as it kept us out of the shorts at 10:30 (when the inventory signaled a build) and put us into stocks that had run the wrong way right at 12:15 – almost a perfect entry point for oil shorting today.

See how well our picks of DO, UPL and NBR charted with Valero:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=VLO&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=upl+nbr+do

Following the Valero Rule gave me an extra 1% profit (100%) on those trades. Always follow the rule!

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Tuesday TOTD EAGL marches on with another 1% gain today and was up 2% at 2pm and I stopped out at $9.75. I almost cancelled the sell as it was doing so good in a bad market but no rules = no profits so away it goes. Closing out with a 15% gain in a week is nothing to cry over.

Tuesday’s alternate pick BIVN kicked up 2.5% at 3pm and I have no idea why but we won’t worry about this one since we sold the June calls on it.

CY finally got some lovin’ after sitting idle while SPWR ran up 30% this week. The stock picked up 2% today and held steady through the market slide. I picked up some Jan ’07 $10 calls for $5.40 with the intention of selling $15 calls if the stock stalls.

LNUX hit $1.80 today and, as predicted, retraced quickly. This stock made us 15% since last Thursday and we bid it a fond farewell.

WFMI finally went down on volume. I still haven’t sold the puts yet but I should.

Got stopped out of 12/16 TOTD TGT at $6 this morning – no regrets with a 35% profit.

GENZ is killing me! I am almost ready to give up which means I should hold. If I had only followed the rule and sold the Jan $75s right away I would be even on this trade…

Got out of ECA $45 put for $2.20 (90%) which was the exact top today – thank you Valero Rule!

BZH almost gave me a heart attack today as it ran up but I rode it out – still wish I never made this trade.

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GG led the gold pack today with a 4% gain and I did take an entry point on BVN by picking up the Jan $25 calls for $4.10 even though gold did not cross $520 yet (remember – do as I say, not as I do!).

GG has given me no reason to exit since I picked up the Jan $20 calls on the 22nd – they are now $2.70, up 135% from the $1.15 entry! Needless to say, I have a .10 stop in place, no way do I give up 100% profit!

ABX is coming into its own again now that the PDG deal looks like a bargain again.

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I shorted SNDK when it crossed $64 per yesterday’s recommendation. I have the $62.50 puts for $2.20, up 15% so far. If it doesn’t gap up tomorrow, I will be very happy! I really should have gotten out before the close but it looked so weak… It is very dumb to gamble just because you are having a good week.

I’m still in that Apple $75 put thank goodness! In at $3.50 up to $5.30 so far – another one I should have cashed out today but I got greedy and the chart really does look like it will test below $70 which would mean another $2 on the option – can’t pass up that chance…

HET had a breakout day, rising 2% against a dead peer group.

UARM tacked on another 10% today, I could almost cry watching it!

I called the top on ALKS for the day but I didn’t think we would get the entry point down at $19 so we missed that one.

KO did make a real bottoming move, picking up a lot of volume (especially for today) as it touched $40.40. This stock will go up 20% next year so no reason to buy until we get a good look at January.

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Speaking of January… Unless the market jumps 3% tomorrow, Virginia, there is no Santa Clause rally.

The talking heads have all switched to telling you how great next year looks – I’ve even heard several analysts say that, since sentiment is so negative, now is the perfect time to buy!

Remember that greed and fear drive the markets – Fear that you will miss the turn at the bottom and greed that you want to suck every last percentage out of a stock movement.

I prefer to trade in the safer zones where a stock is already making a clear move and to get out with a healthy profit, rather than trying to time the last cent out of a trade. It’s a lot more relaxing and it frees up capital to make the next trade.

That’s the point I guess, there is always another trade to make – no matter what the market is doing, so there is no need to ride a trade to death – even if it is working. This week is a good example: We started out saying the market looked awful and decided to stay in cash with a few trades and lo and behold, it’s been a fabulous week!


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