Archive for 2005

Something’s Up at GTech – GTK

My options radar went of on GTech Holdings.

  • Charts are up
  • Insiders held a buying party on 10/28
  • December Calls went nuts at both the $30 and $32.50 level

Lots of March $37.50s were sold as well with NO put buying on the other side.

Earnings are coming up in December and they were a little off last quarter so I’m speculating that last quarter was some kind of abberation when income dropped 3%. Since the company sells lottery systems we know they aren’t going anywhere.

The company took a dive down from $34.90 on 9/12 when there was an acquisition rumor but it has since consolidated right on the 50 dma since 10/7. Having just crossed to the upside of that line, I would have to agree with Friday’s buyers that the December $30s look very attractive with a .75 premium!

If you are more conservative, I would say that buying the stock today for $32.10 and selling the Dec $32.50 call for $1.20 gives you a very nice 4% return over 30 days. Since your break even is lower ($31.30) than all but 3 closes since September 12th, this is a nice probability trade.





Something’s Up at GTech – GTK

My options radar went of on GTech Holdings.

  • Charts are up
  • Insiders held a buying party on 10/28
  • December Calls went nuts at both the $30 and $32.50 level

Lots of March $37.50s were sold as well with NO put buying on the other side.

Earnings are coming up in December and they were a little off last quarter so I’m speculating that last quarter was some kind of abberation when income dropped 3%. Since the company sells lottery systems we know they aren’t going anywhere.

The company took a dive down from $34.90 on 9/12 when there was an acquisition rumor but it has since consolidated right on the 50 dma since 10/7. Having just crossed to the upside of that line, I would have to agree with Friday’s buyers that the December $30s look very attractive with a .75 premium!

If you are more conservative, I would say that buying the stock today for $32.10 and selling the Dec $32.50 call for $1.20 gives you a very nice 4% return over 30 days. Since your break even is lower ($31.30) than all but 3 closes since September 12th, this is a nice probability trade.





AVI BioPharma – AVII

I hate biotech speculation but this is a nice little company that got featured in Barron’s today and actually checks out nicely.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB113175890284895503.html?mod=9_0030_b_this_weeks_magazine_main

It has a few similar items in pipeline on some good stuff, including bird flu and bioterror and it looks like they will get some government funding even though they have enough cash for several more years even if no revenues materialize.

They are very small and shunned by institutions at the moment but the CEO and a director were buying in August and September when the stock was at $2.20 and no one sold as the stock went up to $4 and back to $3.20 where it is currently resting against its 30 day ma.

As I lightly traded stock with no options, this one is generally against my religion but I always have one or two of these taking up 10% of my total porfolio.

This stock can be day traded on Monday as the article will give it a pop but the overall view calls for a correction as there are still about 30M shares held by individual investors who have sat on this stock at $2 since mid ’04 who may be looking to move on.

Since I have a little room I’m going to hope for a drop back to the 50 dma of $2.80, looking for a bounce off the 200 dma of $2.50 but buying any turn back over $2.80 once it goes below.

At that point I would take about 5,000 shares and put them away for a rainy day. I will put a stop in @ $2.50 (200 dma) and a trailing 10% stop in at $4.

The stock is currently overbought but I don’t think it’s due to Barron’s article as the buying action was during the first 3 weeks of October. What I most like about this stock is that it gave very clear buy signals on October 1st and very clear sell signals on 11/1, just before the drop – that’s the kind of stock I like to be in!





AVI BioPharma – AVII

I hate biotech speculation but this is a nice little company that got featured in Barron’s today and actually checks out nicely.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB113175890284895503.html?mod=9_0030_b_this_weeks_magazine_main

It has a few similar items in pipeline on some good stuff, including bird flu and bioterror and it looks like they will get some government funding even though they have enough cash for several more years even if no revenues materialize.

They are very small and shunned by institutions at the moment but the CEO and a director were buying in August and September when the stock was at $2.20 and no one sold as the stock went up to $4 and back to $3.20 where it is currently resting against its 30 day ma.

As I lightly traded stock with no options, this one is generally against my religion but I always have one or two of these taking up 10% of my total porfolio.

This stock can be day traded on Monday as the article will give it a pop but the overall view calls for a correction as there are still about 30M shares held by individual investors who have sat on this stock at $2 since mid ’04 who may be looking to move on.

Since I have a little room I’m going to hope for a drop back to the 50 dma of $2.80, looking for a bounce off the 200 dma of $2.50 but buying any turn back over $2.80 once it goes below.

At that point I would take about 5,000 shares and put them away for a rainy day. I will put a stop in @ $2.50 (200 dma) and a trailing 10% stop in at $4.

The stock is currently overbought but I don’t think it’s due to Barron’s article as the buying action was during the first 3 weeks of October. What I most like about this stock is that it gave very clear buy signals on October 1st and very clear sell signals on 11/1, just before the drop – that’s the kind of stock I like to be in!





My 10 Year Plan for Free Energy

How would you like to get all of your gasoline, your electricity and even your natural gas absolutely free for the rest of your life?

Wow Phil“, you may say, “is it Solar Energy? Hydrogen? Fuel Cells? Perpetual Motion…”

No, we have come up with this process, one which will forever free you from the grind of having to pay for energy for the rest of your life without our Physics, Chemichal Division or anyone in the entire Science wing of Phil’s World having even been consulted.

Who did we go to? The mathematicians!

Well, what is it, what did they say?

I want you to first take a minute because this is very important and you need to believe a little but also do your own research but I am now going to give you the plan and a blueprint for energy independance that is so simple I expect Cheney to have me assisinated by Monday:

BUY STOCK IN ENERGY COMPANIES!!!

Very funny you say, ha ha you say how will that help? Well this is where the math guys come in. I’m not telling you to buy 500 shares of Exxon and hope for the best, I am dead serious about you never paying for energy again – forever. Please indulge me while I do the math:

Let’s start with the obvious. If your family spends $1,000 a month on energy, you are about average for the Northeast, that’s a pretty good chunk of change – $12,000 a year about (I’m including gas).

At this point you’ve caught on to the fact that I’m not going to give you a machine that makes energy – just some investing advice. But if I were to give you such a machine, how much would you pay? 10 years worth of energy costs? While 10 might do it in a really good market, let’s be safe and say 20.

It can definately be done for 20 years worth of energy plus a downpayment. A lump sum 20 year payment would be $240,000. If we put that all into Exxon stock they will pay you a 2% dividend for your troubles, so that will knock just $4,800 off your bill and you are risking $240,000. Bad idea. There are plenty of companies that pay 3% for $7,200 a year but still not quite there.

So we can’t get you off the…
continue reading





My 10 Year Plan for Free Energy

How would you like to get all of your gasoline, your electricity and even your natural gas absolutely free for the rest of your life?

"Wow Phil", you may say, "is it Solar Energy? Hydrogen? Fuel Cells? Perpetual Motion…"

No, we have come up with this process, one which will forever free you from the grind of having to pay for energy for the rest of your life without our Physics, Chemichal Division or anyone in the entire Science wing of Phil’s World having even been consulted.

Who did we go to? The mathematicians!

Well, what is it, what did they say?

I want you to first take a minute because this is very important and you need to believe a little but also do your own research but I am now going to give you the plan and a blueprint for energy independance that is so simple I expect Cheney to have me assisinated by Monday:

BUY STOCK IN ENERGY COMPANIES!!!

Very funny you say, ha ha you say how will that help? Well this is where the math guys come in. I’m not telling you to buy 500 shares of Exxon and hope for the best, I am dead serious about you never paying for energy again – forever. Please indulge me while I do the math:

Let’s start with the obvious. If your family spends $1,000 a month on energy, you are about average for the Northeast, that’s a pretty good chunk of change – $12,000 a year about (I’m including gas).

At this point you’ve caught on to the fact that I’m not going to give you a machine that makes energy – just some investing advice. But if I were to give you such a machine, how much would you pay? 10 years worth of energy costs? While 10 might do it in a really good market, let’s be safe and say 20.

It can definately be done for 20 years worth of energy plus a downpayment. A lump sum 20 year payment would be $240,000. If we put that all into Exxon stock they will pay you a 2% dividend for your troubles, so that will knock just $4,800 off your bill and you are risking $240,000. Bad idea. There are plenty of companies that pay 3% for $7,200 a year but still not quite there.

So we can’t get you off…
continue reading





Google – Next weeks action… Next decade’s action

Mailbag: "Where is Google going next week?"

I am certainly not saying this stock will go up in a straight line, we expect it to bounce down from $399, perhaps going all the way back to $360, but as soon as that peters out (unless the company does something monumentally stupid like buying AOL) we will be doing a Jim Cramer "Mo Back" on this stock all the way to $450.

There are a hell of a lot of people hanging their hats on short positions based on a low volume weekly "hanging man" trend reversal but the daily chart looks more like a bullish reversal happened on Thursday.

Friday’s holiday action was essentially meaningless, if the Europeans are buying on Monday you will have a good indication of where we are going for the day.

Long term PPO has got a lot of steam left while short term stochastics say oversold.

If Google buys AOL next week I will scream and curse and short them to $360 but outside of that or some other horrifying news, we will break $399 before turning back. If the stock goes to $406 then it is all over for the shorts until we get close to $450 and by then it may be earnings time again!

Google "only" has $6bn in sales but that is out of a $500bn media space. They already have sales per share numbers that are double the other media and, of course, they are actually growing vs. all competition.

Soon it will occur to analysts that more people see Google ads per day than all the magazines and newspapers on the planet (oh yes, the world media market is over a $Trillion and Google is certainly a world player) and then they will all up their estimates again…

Google is not like anything anyone has ever seen before so valuation models that analysts have lived their lives with don’t really work. To value Google you have to think about companies who really changed the world in their time like IBM, Bell Telephone, Edison Electric, Microsoft…

When Mirosoft went public they had a similar action to google as they went from $1 to $3 in their first 10 years. In Mid 1991 they began to take off, Google Style and climbed again from $3 to $56 in 8 years. Thats a gain of more than the twice the early
continue reading





Google – Next weeks action… Next decade’s action

Mailbag: “Where is Google going next week?”

I am certainly not saying this stock will go up in a straight line, we expect it to bounce down from $399, perhaps going all the way back to $360, but as soon as that peters out (unless the company does something monumentally stupid like buying AOL) we will be doing a Jim Cramer “Mo Back” on this stock all the way to $450.

There are a hell of a lot of people hanging their hats on short positions based on a low volume weekly “hanging man” trend reversal but the daily chart looks more like a bullish reversal happened on Thursday.

Friday’s holiday action was essentially meaningless, if the Europeans are buying on Monday you will have a good indication of where we are going for the day.

Long term PPO has got a lot of steam left while short term stochastics say oversold.

If Google buys AOL next week I will scream and curse and short them to $360 but outside of that or some other horrifying news, we will break $399 before turning back. If the stock goes to $406 then it is all over for the shorts until we get close to $450 and by then it may be earnings time again!

Google “only” has $6bn in sales but that is out of a $500bn media space. They already have sales per share numbers that are double the other media and, of course, they are actually growing vs. all competition.

Soon it will occur to analysts that more people see Google ads per day than all the magazines and newspapers on the planet (oh yes, the world media market is over a $Trillion and Google is certainly a world player) and then they will all up their estimates again…

Google is not like anything anyone has ever seen before so valuation models that analysts have lived their lives with don’t really work. To value Google you have to think about companies who really changed the world in their time like IBM, Bell Telephone, Edison Electric, Microsoft…

When Mirosoft went public they had a similar action to google as they went from $1 to $3 in their first 10 years. In Mid 1991 they began to take off, Google Style and climbed again from $3 to $56 in 8 years. Thats a gain of more than the twice the early
continue reading





Is Play still Playable?

Reader asked:

I just bought PLAY for $23.85. What do you think is the short-term downside risk in PLAY?

In at $23.85 and already worried? That’s day trading to the extreme my friend!

8-)

Now this may give you a screaming headache but check out http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/candlesticks.html

It is a good introduction to interpreting stock movements from candle charts (which are the best kind) and can give you some idea about what a day’s movement means, even what an hour’s movement or 15 minutes movement might mean but you can never look at smaller incriments (just like with any statistical sample) and try to derive meaning from them.

In the case of play "candlesticks with long lower shadows and short upper shadows indicate that sellers dominated during the session and drove prices lower. However, buyers later resurfaced to bid prices higher by the end of the session and the strong close created a long lower shadow."

Now of course that’s a simplification and there are about 50 other things we look at very carefully including staying on top of news and the rumor mill combined with years of experience in weeding what”s real from the crap so that I can be hopefully right 51% of the time…

I am sorry you missed them on my initial entry letter at $21 but the basics for PLAY remain incredibly strong:

  • The stock has generally closely followed its 2 year trend line, it was driven below it by not false, but information that has since reversed.
  • Also, new positive information, in the form of raised guidance has recently surfaced.
  • Fundamentals are amazing, including 200% y/y growth, 18% net margins (industry standard is 13%), no debt, yet it is currently trading well below its IPO price of $25 (it ran all the way up to $33 its first month).
  • There is buzz on the stock (9 yahoo articles on Friday alone), including Mad Man Cramer who loves to be right and is on telivision 4-5x a day.
  • PLAY was driven down by a combination of bad news that evaporated and analyst downgrades (see my first blog regarding sheep) that are also likely to evaporate.

The main knock on play is that they are a one trick pony with one client. While this is fairly true, their one client is…
continue reading





Is Play still Playable?

Reader asked:

I just bought PLAY for $23.85. What do you think is the short-term downside risk in PLAY?

In at $23.85 and already worried? That’s day trading to the extreme my friend!
8-)
Now this may give you a screaming headache but check out http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/candlesticks.html

It is a good introduction to interpreting stock movements from candle charts (which are the best kind) and can give you some idea about what a day’s movement means, even what an hour’s movement or 15 minutes movement might mean but you can never look at smaller incriments (just like with any statistical sample) and try to derive meaning from them.

In the case of play “candlesticks with long lower shadows and short upper shadows indicate that sellers dominated during the session and drove prices lower. However, buyers later resurfaced to bid prices higher by the end of the session and the strong close created a long lower shadow.”

Now of course that’s a simplification and there are about 50 other things we look at very carefully including staying on top of news and the rumor mill combined with years of experience in weeding what”s real from the crap so that I can be hopefully right 51% of the time…

I am sorry you missed them on my initial entry letter at $21 but the basics for PLAY remain incredibly strong:

  • The stock has generally closely followed its 2 year trend line, it was driven below it by not false, but information that has since reversed.
  • Also, new positive information, in the form of raised guidance has recently surfaced.
  • Fundamentals are amazing, including 200% y/y growth, 18% net margins (industry standard is 13%), no debt, yet it is currently trading well below its IPO price of $25 (it ran all the way up to $33 its first month).
  • There is buzz on the stock (9 yahoo articles on Friday alone), including Mad Man Cramer who loves to be right and is on telivision 4-5x a day.
  • PLAY was driven down by a combination of bad news that evaporated and analyst downgrades (see my first blog regarding sheep) that are also likely to evaporate.

The main knock on play is that they are a one trick pony with one client. While this is fairly true, their one client is Apple who is going to tripple…
continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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