Archive for 2005

Something’s Up at GTech – GTK

My options radar went of on GTech Holdings.

  • Charts are up
  • Insiders held a buying party on 10/28
  • December Calls went nuts at both the $30 and $32.50 level

Lots of March $37.50s were sold as well with NO put buying on the other side.

Earnings are coming up in December and they were a little off last quarter so I’m speculating that last quarter was some kind of abberation when income dropped 3%. Since the company sells lottery systems we know they aren’t going anywhere.

The company took a dive down from $34.90 on 9/12 when there was an acquisition rumor but it has since consolidated right on the 50 dma since 10/7. Having just crossed to the upside of that line, I would have to agree with Friday’s buyers that the December $30s look very attractive with a .75 premium!

If you are more conservative, I would say that buying the stock today for $32.10 and selling the Dec $32.50 call for $1.20 gives you a very nice 4% return over 30 days. Since your break even is lower ($31.30) than all but 3 closes since September 12th, this is a nice probability trade.





Something’s Up at GTech – GTK

My options radar went of on GTech Holdings.

  • Charts are up
  • Insiders held a buying party on 10/28
  • December Calls went nuts at both the $30 and $32.50 level

Lots of March $37.50s were sold as well with NO put buying on the other side.

Earnings are coming up in December and they were a little off last quarter so I’m speculating that last quarter was some kind of abberation when income dropped 3%. Since the company sells lottery systems we know they aren’t going anywhere.

The company took a dive down from $34.90 on 9/12 when there was an acquisition rumor but it has since consolidated right on the 50 dma since 10/7. Having just crossed to the upside of that line, I would have to agree with Friday’s buyers that the December $30s look very attractive with a .75 premium!

If you are more conservative, I would say that buying the stock today for $32.10 and selling the Dec $32.50 call for $1.20 gives you a very nice 4% return over 30 days. Since your break even is lower ($31.30) than all but 3 closes since September 12th, this is a nice probability trade.





AVI BioPharma – AVII

I hate biotech speculation but this is a nice little company that got featured in Barron’s today and actually checks out nicely.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB113175890284895503.html?mod=9_0030_b_this_weeks_magazine_main

It has a few similar items in pipeline on some good stuff, including bird flu and bioterror and it looks like they will get some government funding even though they have enough cash for several more years even if no revenues materialize.

They are very small and shunned by institutions at the moment but the CEO and a director were buying in August and September when the stock was at $2.20 and no one sold as the stock went up to $4 and back to $3.20 where it is currently resting against its 30 day ma.

As I lightly traded stock with no options, this one is generally against my religion but I always have one or two of these taking up 10% of my total porfolio.

This stock can be day traded on Monday as the article will give it a pop but the overall view calls for a correction as there are still about 30M shares held by individual investors who have sat on this stock at $2 since mid ’04 who may be looking to move on.

Since I have a little room I’m going to hope for a drop back to the 50 dma of $2.80, looking for a bounce off the 200 dma of $2.50 but buying any turn back over $2.80 once it goes below.

At that point I would take about 5,000 shares and put them away for a rainy day. I will put a stop in @ $2.50 (200 dma) and a trailing 10% stop in at $4.

The stock is currently overbought but I don’t think it’s due to Barron’s article as the buying action was during the first 3 weeks of October. What I most like about this stock is that it gave very clear buy signals on October 1st and very clear sell signals on 11/1, just before the drop – that’s the kind of stock I like to be in!





AVI BioPharma – AVII

I hate biotech speculation but this is a nice little company that got featured in Barron’s today and actually checks out nicely.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB113175890284895503.html?mod=9_0030_b_this_weeks_magazine_main

It has a few similar items in pipeline on some good stuff, including bird flu and bioterror and it looks like they will get some government funding even though they have enough cash for several more years even if no revenues materialize.

They are very small and shunned by institutions at the moment but the CEO and a director were buying in August and September when the stock was at $2.20 and no one sold as the stock went up to $4 and back to $3.20 where it is currently resting against its 30 day ma.

As I lightly traded stock with no options, this one is generally against my religion but I always have one or two of these taking up 10% of my total porfolio.

This stock can be day traded on Monday as the article will give it a pop but the overall view calls for a correction as there are still about 30M shares held by individual investors who have sat on this stock at $2 since mid ’04 who may be looking to move on.

Since I have a little room I’m going to hope for a drop back to the 50 dma of $2.80, looking for a bounce off the 200 dma of $2.50 but buying any turn back over $2.80 once it goes below.

At that point I would take about 5,000 shares and put them away for a rainy day. I will put a stop in @ $2.50 (200 dma) and a trailing 10% stop in at $4.

The stock is currently overbought but I don’t think it’s due to Barron’s article as the buying action was during the first 3 weeks of October. What I most like about this stock is that it gave very clear buy signals on October 1st and very clear sell signals on 11/1, just before the drop – that’s the kind of stock I like to be in!





My 10 Year Plan for Free Energy

How would you like to get all of your gasoline, your electricity and even your natural gas absolutely free for the rest of your life?

Wow Phil“, you may say, “is it Solar Energy? Hydrogen? Fuel Cells? Perpetual Motion…”

No, we have come up with this process, one which will forever free you from the grind of having to pay for energy for the rest of your life without our Physics, Chemichal Division or anyone in the entire Science wing of Phil’s World having even been consulted.

Who did we go to? The mathematicians!

Well, what is it, what did they say?

I want you to first take a minute because this is very important and you need to believe a little but also do your own research but I am now going to give you the plan and a blueprint for energy independance that is so simple I expect Cheney to have me assisinated by Monday:

BUY STOCK IN ENERGY COMPANIES!!!

Very funny you say, ha ha you say how will that help? Well this is where the math guys come in. I’m not telling you to buy 500 shares of Exxon and hope for the best, I am dead serious about you never paying for energy again – forever. Please indulge me while I do the math:

Let’s start with the obvious. If your family spends $1,000 a month on energy, you are about average for the Northeast, that’s a pretty good chunk of change – $12,000 a year about (I’m including gas).

At this point you’ve caught on to the fact that I’m not going to give you a machine that makes energy – just some investing advice. But if I were to give you such a machine, how much would you pay? 10 years worth of energy costs? While 10 might do it in a really good market, let’s be safe and say 20.

It can definately be done for 20 years worth of energy plus a downpayment. A lump sum 20 year payment would be $240,000. If we put that all into Exxon stock they will pay you a 2% dividend for your troubles, so that will knock just $4,800 off your bill and you are risking $240,000. Bad idea. There are plenty of companies that pay 3% for $7,200 a year but still not quite there.

So we can’t get you off the…
continue reading





My 10 Year Plan for Free Energy

How would you like to get all of your gasoline, your electricity and even your natural gas absolutely free for the rest of your life?

"Wow Phil", you may say, "is it Solar Energy? Hydrogen? Fuel Cells? Perpetual Motion…"

No, we have come up with this process, one which will forever free you from the grind of having to pay for energy for the rest of your life without our Physics, Chemichal Division or anyone in the entire Science wing of Phil’s World having even been consulted.

Who did we go to? The mathematicians!

Well, what is it, what did they say?

I want you to first take a minute because this is very important and you need to believe a little but also do your own research but I am now going to give you the plan and a blueprint for energy independance that is so simple I expect Cheney to have me assisinated by Monday:

BUY STOCK IN ENERGY COMPANIES!!!

Very funny you say, ha ha you say how will that help? Well this is where the math guys come in. I’m not telling you to buy 500 shares of Exxon and hope for the best, I am dead serious about you never paying for energy again – forever. Please indulge me while I do the math:

Let’s start with the obvious. If your family spends $1,000 a month on energy, you are about average for the Northeast, that’s a pretty good chunk of change – $12,000 a year about (I’m including gas).

At this point you’ve caught on to the fact that I’m not going to give you a machine that makes energy – just some investing advice. But if I were to give you such a machine, how much would you pay? 10 years worth of energy costs? While 10 might do it in a really good market, let’s be safe and say 20.

It can definately be done for 20 years worth of energy plus a downpayment. A lump sum 20 year payment would be $240,000. If we put that all into Exxon stock they will pay you a 2% dividend for your troubles, so that will knock just $4,800 off your bill and you are risking $240,000. Bad idea. There are plenty of companies that pay 3% for $7,200 a year but still not quite there.

So we can’t get you off…
continue reading





Google – Next weeks action… Next decade’s action

Mailbag: "Where is Google going next week?"

I am certainly not saying this stock will go up in a straight line, we expect it to bounce down from $399, perhaps going all the way back to $360, but as soon as that peters out (unless the company does something monumentally stupid like buying AOL) we will be doing a Jim Cramer "Mo Back" on this stock all the way to $450.

There are a hell of a lot of people hanging their hats on short positions based on a low volume weekly "hanging man" trend reversal but the daily chart looks more like a bullish reversal happened on Thursday.

Friday’s holiday action was essentially meaningless, if the Europeans are buying on Monday you will have a good indication of where we are going for the day.

Long term PPO has got a lot of steam left while short term stochastics say oversold.

If Google buys AOL next week I will scream and curse and short them to $360 but outside of that or some other horrifying news, we will break $399 before turning back. If the stock goes to $406 then it is all over for the shorts until we get close to $450 and by then it may be earnings time again!

Google "only" has $6bn in sales but that is out of a $500bn media space. They already have sales per share numbers that are double the other media and, of course, they are actually growing vs. all competition.

Soon it will occur to analysts that more people see Google ads per day than all the magazines and newspapers on the planet (oh yes, the world media market is over a $Trillion and Google is certainly a world player) and then they will all up their estimates again…

Google is not like anything anyone has ever seen before so valuation models that analysts have lived their lives with don’t really work. To value Google you have to think about companies who really changed the world in their time like IBM, Bell Telephone, Edison Electric, Microsoft…

When Mirosoft went public they had a similar action to google as they went from $1 to $3 in their first 10 years. In Mid 1991 they began to take off, Google Style and climbed again from $3 to $56 in 8 years. Thats a gain of more than the twice the early
continue reading





Google – Next weeks action… Next decade’s action

Mailbag: “Where is Google going next week?”

I am certainly not saying this stock will go up in a straight line, we expect it to bounce down from $399, perhaps going all the way back to $360, but as soon as that peters out (unless the company does something monumentally stupid like buying AOL) we will be doing a Jim Cramer “Mo Back” on this stock all the way to $450.

There are a hell of a lot of people hanging their hats on short positions based on a low volume weekly “hanging man” trend reversal but the daily chart looks more like a bullish reversal happened on Thursday.

Friday’s holiday action was essentially meaningless, if the Europeans are buying on Monday you will have a good indication of where we are going for the day.

Long term PPO has got a lot of steam left while short term stochastics say oversold.

If Google buys AOL next week I will scream and curse and short them to $360 but outside of that or some other horrifying news, we will break $399 before turning back. If the stock goes to $406 then it is all over for the shorts until we get close to $450 and by then it may be earnings time again!

Google “only” has $6bn in sales but that is out of a $500bn media space. They already have sales per share numbers that are double the other media and, of course, they are actually growing vs. all competition.

Soon it will occur to analysts that more people see Google ads per day than all the magazines and newspapers on the planet (oh yes, the world media market is over a $Trillion and Google is certainly a world player) and then they will all up their estimates again…

Google is not like anything anyone has ever seen before so valuation models that analysts have lived their lives with don’t really work. To value Google you have to think about companies who really changed the world in their time like IBM, Bell Telephone, Edison Electric, Microsoft…

When Mirosoft went public they had a similar action to google as they went from $1 to $3 in their first 10 years. In Mid 1991 they began to take off, Google Style and climbed again from $3 to $56 in 8 years. Thats a gain of more than the twice the early
continue reading





Is Play still Playable?

Reader asked:

I just bought PLAY for $23.85. What do you think is the short-term downside risk in PLAY?

In at $23.85 and already worried? That’s day trading to the extreme my friend!

8-)

Now this may give you a screaming headache but check out http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/candlesticks.html

It is a good introduction to interpreting stock movements from candle charts (which are the best kind) and can give you some idea about what a day’s movement means, even what an hour’s movement or 15 minutes movement might mean but you can never look at smaller incriments (just like with any statistical sample) and try to derive meaning from them.

In the case of play "candlesticks with long lower shadows and short upper shadows indicate that sellers dominated during the session and drove prices lower. However, buyers later resurfaced to bid prices higher by the end of the session and the strong close created a long lower shadow."

Now of course that’s a simplification and there are about 50 other things we look at very carefully including staying on top of news and the rumor mill combined with years of experience in weeding what”s real from the crap so that I can be hopefully right 51% of the time…

I am sorry you missed them on my initial entry letter at $21 but the basics for PLAY remain incredibly strong:

  • The stock has generally closely followed its 2 year trend line, it was driven below it by not false, but information that has since reversed.
  • Also, new positive information, in the form of raised guidance has recently surfaced.
  • Fundamentals are amazing, including 200% y/y growth, 18% net margins (industry standard is 13%), no debt, yet it is currently trading well below its IPO price of $25 (it ran all the way up to $33 its first month).
  • There is buzz on the stock (9 yahoo articles on Friday alone), including Mad Man Cramer who loves to be right and is on telivision 4-5x a day.
  • PLAY was driven down by a combination of bad news that evaporated and analyst downgrades (see my first blog regarding sheep) that are also likely to evaporate.

The main knock on play is that they are a one trick pony with one client. While this is fairly true, their one client is…
continue reading





Is Play still Playable?

Reader asked:

I just bought PLAY for $23.85. What do you think is the short-term downside risk in PLAY?

In at $23.85 and already worried? That’s day trading to the extreme my friend!
8-)
Now this may give you a screaming headache but check out http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/candlesticks.html

It is a good introduction to interpreting stock movements from candle charts (which are the best kind) and can give you some idea about what a day’s movement means, even what an hour’s movement or 15 minutes movement might mean but you can never look at smaller incriments (just like with any statistical sample) and try to derive meaning from them.

In the case of play “candlesticks with long lower shadows and short upper shadows indicate that sellers dominated during the session and drove prices lower. However, buyers later resurfaced to bid prices higher by the end of the session and the strong close created a long lower shadow.”

Now of course that’s a simplification and there are about 50 other things we look at very carefully including staying on top of news and the rumor mill combined with years of experience in weeding what”s real from the crap so that I can be hopefully right 51% of the time…

I am sorry you missed them on my initial entry letter at $21 but the basics for PLAY remain incredibly strong:

  • The stock has generally closely followed its 2 year trend line, it was driven below it by not false, but information that has since reversed.
  • Also, new positive information, in the form of raised guidance has recently surfaced.
  • Fundamentals are amazing, including 200% y/y growth, 18% net margins (industry standard is 13%), no debt, yet it is currently trading well below its IPO price of $25 (it ran all the way up to $33 its first month).
  • There is buzz on the stock (9 yahoo articles on Friday alone), including Mad Man Cramer who loves to be right and is on telivision 4-5x a day.
  • PLAY was driven down by a combination of bad news that evaporated and analyst downgrades (see my first blog regarding sheep) that are also likely to evaporate.

The main knock on play is that they are a one trick pony with one client. While this is fairly true, their one client is Apple who is going to tripple…
continue reading





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Congress is considering privacy legislation - be afraid

 

Congress is considering privacy legislation – be afraid

Courtesy of Jeff Sovern, St. John's University

Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis called privacy the “right to be let alone.” Perhaps Congress should give states trying to protect consumer data the same right.

For years, a gridlocked Congress ignored privacy, apart from occasionally scolding companies such as Equifax and Marriott after their major data breaches. In its absence, ...



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Zero Hedge

Key Events This Week: Trade War, EU Elections, Durables, PMIs And Fed Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Looking at this week's key events, Deutsche Bank's Craig Nicol writes that while the unpredictable nature of US-China trade developments will likely continue to be the main focus for markets again next week, we also have the European Parliament elections circus to look forward to as well as various survey reports including the flash May PMIs which may offer some insight into the impact of trade escalation on economic data. The FOMC and ECB meeting minutes are also due, along with a heavy calendar of Fed officials speaking.

The European Parliament elections will kick off next Thursday with voting continuing into the weekend across the continent, with results expected on Sunday. With the elections surrounded by internal and external challenges for the EU, members di...



more from Tyler

Kimble Charting Solutions

Will S&P 500 Double Top Derail The Rally?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The rally off the December stock market lows has been strong, to say the least. The S&P 500 rallied 25 percent before hitting and testing the 2018 high.

The old highs proved to be formidable resistance and ushered in some volatility in May… and a 5 percent pullback.

In today’s 2-pack, we look at that resistance level – could that be a double top? We can see similar patterns develop on the S&P 500 Index and its Equal Weight counterpart.

Both indexes are testing short-term Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent decline at point (2).

What takes place here after potential double top highs will be important. Stay tuned...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

60 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Fastly, Inc. (NYSE: FSLY) shares jumped 50 percent to close at $23.99 on Friday. Fastly priced its 11.25 million share IPO at $16 per share.
  • Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OTLK) shares climbed 37.3 percent to close at $2.10 on Friday after the stock rose over 68 percent Thursday following an Oppenheimer initiation at Outperform with a price target of $12.
  • Cray Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAY) shares rose 22.5 percent to close at $36.52 after Hewlett Packard Enterpri...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



more from Biotech

ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



more from ValueWalk

Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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