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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Tuesday Wrap-Up

Well that certainly seemed like a good day! Volume was low but the Nasdaq made a 5 year high at 2,345 while the Dow and S&P both closed above resistance.

Several Fed governors gave similar messages today that gave traders hope that the Fed may be done soon and oil went down slightly but not enough to give us momentum on the oil trades.

I did violate the Valero rule and added to my positions today although at no point in the day was it indicated that I should. I paid the price for it by taking a hit on all my new positions as well as the ones I already held but sometimes you do have to go with your feelings and I really do feel this one.

Here’s what happened in oil today:

  • Analysts are back to predicting $70 oil (always a sign of a top).
  • Venezuela seized (yes seized) ownership of two oil fields that were operated by TOT and ENI which, strangely, didn’t seem to bother their stocks.
  • Crude oil stocks are near storage capacity – we are importing less as there is no room for it.
  • 2M+ drawdowns are expected in tomorrow’s inventory, any less and May deliveries will panic.
  • An oil strike in Norway isn’t going to happen.
  • Shell Nigeria is back online.
  • A refinery crashed late afternoon, rescuing gas prices and lifting the complex.
  • Oil rallied back from $65.60 to close at $66.25 but the dollar was down too.
  • Traders expect a 2.5M gasoline draw tomorrow.

On the whole, it just didn’t seem like a good enough reason to change my mind on oil and you could easily see how others can panic so I’m pretending today didn’t happen. There will be no pretending tomorrow, any build means too much oil and anticipation of a draw is large so there is lots of room for disappointment.

Gold and copper held up, I only have BVN now and I’m happy with that one.

=====================================

SEPR picked up 2% today on a nice low open and the May $50s finished at $3.80 (up 25%).
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SEPR&t=1d

GM went down and down and down but the damn $17.50 puts stayed at .30. This could be a problem if it continues tomorrow. You would think a stock that has dropped $2 in 2 days would place more value on a put $2 away…

PLAY had a terrible day on Apple downgrades and the May $25s are back to .85 (down 15%). Yet another example of why 30% gains should be taken off the table.

Speaking of things left on the table, GOOG came back today, finishing around $405 but, as you can see in the comments, I wimped out at $402 and was happy just to get back to where I was last week. I am now left with just my $470s and $480s, just in case it gaps up again. Meanwhile the May $450s shot up to $8.20 (up 90%) while the May $340 puts came down to $4.10 (down 33%). We initiated the transaction with $11.50 and are up to $12.30 with very little stress.

IMCL made a nice jump today and the Aug $35s finished at $3.70 (up 10%). We may regret not taking a closer call here!

NVDA shot up 5% today. I think they are setting up for a real fall after the split but this is too scary to short right now!

Very glad I took the money on the SUN puts as it went up 2.5% today! I’m still not impressed with the chart but I have too many oil plays at the moment to take another one.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SUN&t=5d

AH had another great day and the $60s tacked on another 30% to finish at $1.65 (up 65%).

Well, the GLW May $25s did come down to $2.90 today and TXN held $32 so let’s hope these aren’t a mistake! It’s easy to plan to catch a bottom but sometimes you feel like a sucker trying to actually do it! I’d keep the stop at $2.50 here for sure in case it moves the wrong way.

MSFT made an ugly gain today and the Oct $27.50s wound up at $1.60.

PZZA was a disaster so far! The July $35s are still $1.10 but the stock looks very weak even on good sales data. It might take a month for this one to catch on…

AMTD made another pop today and the $20s are now $1.95, up 140% since Wednesday’s pick.

Let’s not forget that YHOO $32.50s for $1.05 are a nice cheap way to piggyback a big Google run.

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