Weekly Wrap-Up

Wow, what a week, what a finish! 91 positions were still in play this week with 47 gaining over 50%, 9 gaining more than 500% and just 7 losers (mostly 20% stop outs but 2 total losses). Up on big volume, GOOG and CME flying on the last day, MOT still going strong, Apple still over $74, MSFT up 2% today… The Nasdaq gave us the leadership we always wanted with a 4% gain on the week while the Russell 2000 posted a 3.5% gain. This goes in line with my master plan of draining money out of commodity players and redistributing the wealth to the starving masses (or at least to Steve Jobs, Larry and Sergey, who looked a little hungry at the last conference). Here’s the chart. The Dow and S&P tacked on about 2% with almost no downward action other than “Don’t Panic” Thursday. They NYSE had the weakest week but, as I’ve said, it is miles ahead of the others over the long haul so anything other than down is very good for the NYSE! Larry Kudlow is making an excellent point that we need to watch the Core Chained CPI, which is virtually flat to last year and I wholeheartedly agree. It is very similar to the way I look at the regular CPI, throwing out extraneous information and adjusting some of the weighting. Oil finished the week with a sickening thud, down right at the 5% rule for the week at $63.33 after being down 5% in the short week before, which was 5% lower than the week before that which was flat to the week before that, which was 5% down from the week before that which was 5% down from the all-time high that was set 30 days earlier. http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24wtic I don’t make these things up, I just report them and head off to Stockholm to collect my medal and plaque… So we got a pause at 10%, followed by a 10-day consolidation followed by a 5% drop and a 3 day consolidation, followed by a 10% drop. In comments we mentioned the Fibonacci goal of $54ish (I would throw out the $79 high and use $77 so the downside goal would be $52). That is, conveniently, 3 5% moves away from where we are now… Overall, in the past 45 days (you need to play with this chart) Oil is down 15%, Exxon is flat, TOT and CVX are down 5% and COP is down 15% with oil. In the default view, you can see XOM’s irrational exuberance since June 6th that has placed it 5% ahead of its peers. Run the chart out to the max time and you will see that, not only is Exxon usually the laggard of the group, but that historically, oil companies tend to trade well below the trend in oil prices. Gold had another terrible day, finishing way down at $576 as copper finally gave up some ground (1.3%) as the Dollar gave us the bounce we called for yesterday (I hate it when I’m a day early on these things!). http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24usd It was a great week, if you are a new reader and you made a lot of money this week, quit now, I don’t think it will get much better than this! But, if you are daring and you want to stick around, let’s get ready to have some real fun as things start to get really serious coming into the end of Q3! ==================================== Frankly, this has never happened before. I am usually in cash once every 2 weeks, three at the most and this run. This rally, even though I predicted it, has left me with more positions than I can track. For the new site, we will be employing a nice tracking system with entry and exit dates and all sorts of cool stuff so I am apologizing in advance for this list as the best I can do (without spending a week working on a review) is to just lay out the picks and how they’ve done since they were initiated: ABX Oct $32.50 puts finished at $3.40 (up 325%). ADZA hit $17 on a 3.5% jump today (up 3.3%). AIR Feb $25s hit $2.05 (up 60%). I got bored with AMGN but the Oct $70s rewarded more patient types at $1.95 (up 35%). APPL $72.50 puts were a wipeout at .25. BA Nov $80s got hammered yesterday, but are still up 35% at $1.35. http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?ba BBY Oct $47.50s were part of Tuesday’s retail call and flew up to $6.90 (up 320%). The Dec $57.50s ran up to $2.45 (up 20%) on our first day. BBBY Oct $35s finished at $3 (up 200%). BNI Oct $70s are now $2.50 (up 55%): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BNI&t=5d BP $70 puts finished at $5.10 (up 140%) but we rolled that 40% into the Oct $60 puts, down a nickel to .25 and the Oct $65 puts are at $1.45 (up 20%). BPO went off the table back even at $35.80 – no more shorting real estate! http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?bpo BSC Oct $140s finsished at $2.50 (up just 95% after today’s $3 pullback). Shame on you if you didn’t stop out between up 200% and here! CAL pulled back a bit today but the Dec $30s are still a nice $3 (up 150%). CAT Oct $70s are back to .75 and this is a big play if the rally is real. CHK Oct $30 puts finished at $1.75 (up 170%) and the $30 puts finished at .90 (up 600%). These were freebies from the profits on the $32.50 puts at the beginning of the month and a great example of the joy of rolling your profits! CKR $15s ended up at $1.75 (up 250%) CLB was a pretty good pick for a short, down 16% to $64.29, This is pretty good for a straight stock call but if they had had options we would have made a fortune! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CLB&t=1d Consolation Club member, COH Oct $32.50s are up 180% to $2.20, more than enough to buy a bag! COST Oct $50s finished at 1.70 (up 130%). The Jan $52.50s are $1.95 (up 25%). CSX Jan $32.50s are up to $2 (up 40%), even after today’s 2% pullback. CVX $65 puts finished at $3.20 (up 600%) and we rolled into the Oct $60 puts early, now .95 (up 160%). DD Oct $42.50s finished the day at .85 (up 150%) but we took the money at .75. The $40s finished at $2.25 (up 115%). DELL Jan ’08 $27.50s held $1.50(down .10) but we cleverly sold the Oct $22.50s for .60 (now .40) so we could relax while it works on the decending 50 dma: http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?dell DIS Oct $30s went into the money at $1 (up 66%). DOW Dec $40s hit $1.05 (up 55%) but I think they should be doing much better (like DD). EBAY is not off to a good start and the Oct $30s dropped a dime to .80 on some bad usage numbers. ECA Oct $50 puts hit $5.00 (up 825%) EXP didn’t move much but the Jan $40s went to $2.30 (up 10%) as sentiment changed. FCS finally got it in gear and the Jan $20s hit $1.65 (up 60%). FRK Mar $45s are $2.50 (down .20), still unaware of the uptick in builders… FRPT finally got an analyst and he liked it! We gained 8.5% today to finish at $7.63 (up 20%). Hey, maybe these stock things aren’t so terrible after all but I’m out as it’s way past target. GE Oct $35s are slow but strady to .45 (up 200%) and you can still get them! I said this at .15, .25 and .35 so far… http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?ge GM made a nice one day call with the $32.50 puts finishing at .85 (up 750%) on a 4% drop today. This was pure luck as I just couldn’t get a dime for them yesterday… GLW is back at the 200 dma and the Feb $25s are up to $1.70 (up 20%), very playable if it breaks through $23.50 – watch TXN for confirmation. HET Jan $70s inched up to $2.30 (up 25%) these are profits from the prior trade so very tight stops!http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HET&t=5d It’s almost time to get back into Intel! I think we had 4 trades on that last week that made over 200% each! IWM Oct $72s are still $2.25 (up 65%). JNJ Oct $65s dropped to .60 (down 30%) and I’m out. LEN Oct $40 were a lucky escape as they went back to even, down 40% from the week’s open. http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?len MRVL Jan $21.25s flew up to $2.10 (up 90%), and we are already .55 ahead from the first time we were in and out!http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?mrvl I’m worried I outsmarted myself with this morning’s MS call as no one seems to care that they lost the PEG deal. The Oct $70 puts fell .25 to $1.40 and I’m worried about holding it into earnings. MSFT Oct $27.50s doubled today to .35 (up 130%) and the Oct $25s finished the month at $2.05 (up 105%)… MU Jan $20s are still $1 (up 250%). NOK Oct $20s are .50 (down .10) but I keep buying them! OIH made a valiant attempt to recover but the Oct $130 puts look safe at $5.40 (up 45%). OSG Oct $65 puts finished well in the money at $4.20 (up 125%) and the Jan $60 puts hit $3.40 (up 130%). PCU was our conservative copper short. We picked up $2.75 so far on the short and we sold the Oct $95 put for $6 (now $8) for a very dull, but safe net $.75 gain since Monday. I really didn’t think it would break $90 so easily… http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?pcu PD held up better than I thought but the Oct $82.50 puts ran up to $3.50 (up 250%) while the Jan $82.50 puts are at $7.20 (up 80%). http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?pd PEG did drop 6% today but the Oct $60 puts ended at $1.05 (down .25), very disappointing but I’m hanging my hat on the fact that PEG was at $41 prior to the failed takeover. Perhaps people think they are still in play but I don’t see another offer coming after regulators said no way to this deal. http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?peg PETS is looking like we will get called away as it ran up to $10.34 already. We entered at $9.63 and sold the Oct $10s for .65 (now .95). I didn’t think it would run up so fast and I’m still dubious… http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?pets QQQQ Oct $39s doubled to $1.80 and the current $39s finished at $1.10 (up 270%).. RDS.A $70 puts finished at $4.90 (up 890%) but we got out 200% ago and rolled profits into the Oct $65 puts at .50, now $1.35 (up 170%). RSTO is the way to play a stock! We were in at $6.17, out at $7.20, in at $7.04 and now at $7.72. Getting ready to exit again with a .10 trailing stop: http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?rsto RTP $190 puts finishd at $5.10 (up 70%). SBUX Oct $35s were exited in comments at .75 as 50% in one day seemed like plenty. SMVD is back at $1.35 (up .10) and now they are getting a little press!. SNE has surprised me by not going down (yet), my Jan $45s are still $1.85 (up .10). SRZ was a good call to hold through the downgrade and the Jan $30s ran up to $4.10 (up 85%). There must be some kind of rule against this but we have now made money for the 3rd time in one month on the same option. Oh well, until they make us stop we can enjoy the STX Mar $22.50s at $2.65 (up 55%) and, even though this is profits of other profits, let’s keep a tight stop around $2.25. The Oct $25s are still .40. http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?stx SU $80 puts finished at $12.80 (up 570%). The Oct $65 puts finished at $2.15 (up 30%). SUN $75 puts finished the week at $13.50 (up 1,125%), but at 900% we rolled into the Oct $60 puts which hit $2.10 (up 110%). SUNW $5s gave us a very lucky exit at .25 (up 66%) this morning! I had them on my dead trade list… http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?sunw TGT Oct $50s finished way in the money at $4.40 (up 190%) and the Oct $47.50s are even better at $6.10 (up 205%)! What a pretty chart! Oh yeah, Monday I realized we didn’t have any TGT Oct $52.50s, now $2.40 (up 140%). You can tell I really like a trade when I pick it 3 times! If BA moves next week it is time for for Boeing Buddies ™ TIE and BEAV to make a move… The queen of the Consolation Prize Palace is TIF, with the Jan $35s just a nickel out of the money at $2.40 (up 140%). This is our second visit to this option as well! Very tight stop as we test the 200 dma at $35.20! TOL $25 puts were a wipeout of .40! TXN Oct $32.50s are back at .95 (up 15% avg. from my double down at .70). This one is still good for an entry if the SOX break 465. We chikened out of TINY March 10s at $2.75 (up 140%) but it’s tempting me again as it consolidates under the 200 dma at $12.50: http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?tiny UPS stalled a bit but the Jan $75s made it to $2.60 (up 30%). VNO Oct $105 puts stopped us out at $1.40 (down 20%) and the Dec $100 puts killed us at $1.50 (down 20%). Consolation Prize Team Member WSM Oct $32.50s are getting close to the money at $1 (up 300%) a nice roll from the double + on the Oct $30s! We also took the Oct $35s for .20. and the $1 should come 2/3 off the table to preserve a double for sure. http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?wsm YHOO Oct $30s ran back to $1.15 (up 40%)… XOM $67.50 puts hit $2.80 (up 460%):http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?xom Thanks for all the comments! I really appreciate all the ideas and advice. Have a great weekend, – Phil