Archive for 2006

Weekly Wrap-Up

That was a terrible way to end a very nice week!

I hate it when I’m right about negative stuff but I missed the drop in the Dow by 1 pt and the Nasdaq by 3 pts. What surprised me wat the ease with which the S&P ran below 1,300 as it had to outlose the other indices on a percentage basis to do it.

Another very bad sign was that the Dow and S&P were only saved by the bell from closing much lower for the week:

Leading to articles like this:

After what can barely be called an adjustment day, the Wall Street Journal chimed in on the weekend with an $80 prediction for oil this year.

And, just to make absolutely sure the market stays jacked up as the new oil ETF opens tomorrow the Journal printed yet another pump piece (page one too!) to remind us of how afraid of Nigerian and other rebels we should be:

If this doesn’t do it tomorrow there could be a major exodus from oil positions but that would assume that the average investor isn’t suckered into all this oil scarcity nonsense. Yes there can be an oil shortage, but there isn’t. There can be a grain shortage if we have a drout, a chicken and egg shortage if there is bird flu (yes, no one is even thinking of that), a hospital bed shortage if a virus breaks out and there’s already an engineering shortage, supposedly because someone is building something somewhere…

Anyway, the point is that you can’t jack up the price of everything based on the possibility of disruptions but we have to let it run it’s course – there is a lot to be made on the way down once the bulls abandon ship.

Things can’t be so bad in the world as gold pulled way back to $589 and, thankfully, never hit $605 to fool us, but NEM went down so far intraday I picked some up anyway. Gold is still significantly higher (5%) than it was in late January yet Newmont is down 15% – this makes no sense on an unhedged producer.


Of course the oil puts were perfect on Friday with VLO giving a very clear sell signal at 10:15 with only a .25 pullback in the…
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Friday Morning

Finally oil looks like it’s breaking down. I learned a very hard lesson this week as I stupidly tried to get ahead of the trend and got burned. After missing the last big oil drop on 3/20 (because it was a Monday and we don’t short oil into a weekend) I wanted to make sure I was in for this one and, even with averaging in, I am already down 40-50% on my positions. I still don’t expect any real pullback in oil stocks until oil runs below the $66 mark so we are still quite a drop away from really good news.

Hopefully I will get even but, had I just followed my own rules, I would have had 100% of my oil cash ready to deploy. As it is I will be happy to get out even!

I am not smarter than Valero traders. I am not smarter than Valero traders. I am not smarter than Valero traders. I am not smarter than Valero traders. I am not smarter than Valero traders. I am not smarter than Valero traders. I am not smarter than Valero traders. I am not smarter than Valero traders. I am not smarter than Valero traders…

I am however, smart enough to know that a big drop on oil may cause a big drop in the oil sector which may cause a drop in the overall markets. If oil heads south, I would not be surprised if today or Monday we get a pullback of around 100 Dow and 25 Nasdaq points as it is way overdue.

Asia is up because their prices have now escaped the Earth’s gravity and are now being drawn towards the sun (this is my best explanation) and Europe is also making modest gains despite a week of rioting in France.

We have jobs data today and again we are looking for that Goldilocks kind of number of about 250,000 jobs created with no less than 4.7% unemployment (but no more than 4.9%) and less than .3% wage growth (yeah I know we are such cheapskate bosses).

Speaking of Goldilocks, those locks are now worth $601.50 an ounce! After consolidating below $600 for 7 sessions (after a $50 jump) gold looks poised to take a leg towards $650 which will make all our gold stocks woefully undervalued.

Keep an eye on copper to confirm direction but gold, even though…
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Thursday Wrap-Up

Well those RIMM $80 puts are looking good aren’t they?

If you have those you don’t really care how the rest of the day went but we’ll talk about it anyway.

The market is very, very strong and impressive. High oil, high commodities, high interest – not a problem! It did move in tandem with the oil sector today but the oil sector recovered at lunch (much to my surprise).

None of the indices are in any danger and that was a nothing pullback after 3 very good sessions. As expected though, it was up to Apple to boost the Nasdaq which kept hope alive today. It does still seem to have some gas in the tank for tomorrow. Where were all these analysts with positive things to say when the stock was at $57? Does it really help you now if they set a $80 target?

Gold actually held $600 but you couldn’t tell from the way gold stocks were acting! NEM actually went negative mid day… PD is tired as copper was up another $4 but the stock dropped $1.


We’ll see on the conference call how RIMM’s CEO explains why they should trade at double the P/E of PALM. Let’s think about this one in the morning as there will be a lot of emergency pumping of this thing all night and into the open.

The DIA’s worked great if you day traded them. The May $111 puts finished at $1.10 (up 10%) but were way up at $1.25 as the market bottomed.

The SPY May $130 puts finished at $1.35, pretty much flat from the open. I have little faith in these after such a good day today but I don’t mind holding them over the weekend unless things turn up tomorrow.

It took a lot of patience to get the NEM $55s for .80 but even if you didn’t it’s still at $1.10 (up 35%) but was at $1.25 in the afternoon. I held mine just in case gold moves up tomorrow. I also decided the ABX $30s are too cheap at .60 and are a big buy if gold holds $600 in the overnights.

No more GM options! Even though the stock went down all day the $20 puts barely budged off $1.05.

TGT gapped up too much to play and a good thing as it drifted down all day from the open.…
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Thursday Morning

Europe is pulling back a little today but Asia flew up to new record levels, the Nikkei is now at 17,489 – just last May it was tied with the Dow at 10,700. Not to be outdone the Hang Seng tacked on 311 points today. The Chinese are on their way here with $15Bn to spend to help out some American companies (one of which is possibly GM) as what they consider a show of good faith prior to to a major get-together with Bush. As I said in November, perhaps we can wrap GM up in a box and give it to them and stamp it “no refunds or exchanges” and let them deal with it! That’s not the only way China is attempting to help poor, struggling American companies. Tsinghua Tongfang (I think he fought Bruce Lee in Enter the Dragon), China’s #3 PC maker, has shockingly agreed to sell computers with legitimate copies of windows. China’s President is scheduled to make a stop in Redmond next month. Oil is officially out of control and now at a level that our market can’t ignore. Last time oil went from $65 to $69 was Jan 15-23 when the Dow slipped from 11,047 to 10,661 so place your bets accordingly! The time before was August when we slipped from 10,700 to 10,350. We may be saved from total disaster because the ECB left rates unchanged which should bring the dollar back up a bit and at least slow the run in commodity prices. On the other hand, now they are pulling out the hurricane card to scare oil up further. At this point I would say it’s a fairly safe bet that the the DIA May 111 puts for .95 are a fairly safe bet as either oil heads up and kills the Dow or oil pulls back and oil companies fall which drag down the Dow. SPY $130 puts for $1.25 are also interesting. With all this uncertainty gold has run up to $599 pre market, great for BVN and perhaps time to revisit NEM which is still way off it’s $60 high. The $55s are .80 and make for a nice momentum trade but not if gold is rejected from $600, which is more likely than not. Apple may save the markets today so don’t jump into shorts until we see how it goes. ===================================== Obviously if the…
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Wednesday Wrap-Up

Another good day! Not for my oil puts but for everything else… That was way better than consolidation with SOX and Apple moving the Nasdaq to a 5 year high at 2,359 while the Dow and S&P both made a nice strong finish. Of course the oil sector was a great part of that although it was very strange that the Dow Transport index also made a new all-time high even as oil marched higher. This means that transport traders also think this is a false rally in oil. I could really kick myself because, aside from not following the Valero Rule and wasting a lot of money, I also paid no attention to myself when I said on 3/20: “the oil sector is still in favor as retail investors plow money into everything that worked last year.” I’ve got to start reading this column! I was so right, everything that worked last year is working now, perhaps this year it won’t come screeching to a halt…. Gold remained strong and copper went through the roof with a 2% gain. This is a very strong looking market coming into earnings and there have been very few warnings so a good earnings season could really get us over the hump! ===================================== Speaking of reading my own column, on 3/22 I said: “If the market is sane (I know, when is it?) then AAPL will be a winner today as this can’t help but boost their sales over the holidays. Although risky as Apple has been under attack for a month, the Apr $62.50s aren’t so bad at $3.10 (a 3.70 premium) but obviously to be sold quick as the premium will kill you over time. Also, the broohaha over the French ruling on ITunes will hang heavy over the stock until it is resolved.” Later that day I said: “AAPL is now officially baffling me. I don’t know who’s selling it or why but sell it they do, every single day, into every rally… I hate to say it but the 200 dma is $57.50 and if we don’t hold $60 I think that’s where it’ll end up.” “AAPL started out great then died, very depressing! The $62.50s peaked out at $3.60 (up 10%) but I held mine to the bitter end where they closed at $2.85 (down 8%). I don’t consider that greedy, I didn’t plunk down $3.10 to make…
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Wednesday Morning

Looks like global consolidation day, everyone is flatish and our futures look flattish too. Whenever you have a day after a big high is made (Nasdaq 2,340) it is great just to hold it the next day. An up day today will be another indicator that we really are starting to benefit from either Global Rotation or possibly just be an indicator that retail investors continue to pile into our markets. The better the brokers do, the more likely it is that this rally is retail driven which means it could be a fickle thing if it turns choppy. All eyes are on oil inventories today but the interest rates bear watching as the 10 year is now 4.85% and movement towards 5% will really start scaring investors. Hints that Fed tightening may actually be winding down are no help for the dollar which has lost over a point this week which will add 1% to our deficit which everyone will call a surprise when the numbers come out. Speaking of surprises, this will be the first quarter where new rules on options expensing really start to kick in and I think we will be in for some shockers. The Nasdaq will be particularly susceptible and we will need to be ready in case things start turning on us. Earnings begin next Monday with most techs reporting a week later. I’m not touching stocks today until I see what oil does as drawdowns will boost oil stocks at the expense of many others while buildups can kill the oil sector and drag down the markets initially. ====================================== Google continues to rise as somehow people have gotten the idea that they will hit their numbers for the quarter. After missing last quarter by 12% at $1.54, analysts are expecting Google to make $1.99 this quarter, a 72% improvement over Q1’04′s 1.29! Is it possible? Well, anything is possible but, like any good magic trick, I can’t imagine how they can do it. Nonetheless I will let the trend be my friend and pick up some May $500s for $1.80 as they shouldn’t go much lower than $1.50 if Google drops back to $400. I already have lots of $470s and $480s otherwise I would be buying them too. Speaking of trends, LVS is making a new high. Let’s remember this thing IPO’d early last year at $48 so we shouldn’t consider…
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Tuesday Wrap-Up

Well that certainly seemed like a good day! Volume was low but the Nasdaq made a 5 year high at 2,345 while the Dow and S&P both closed above resistance.

Several Fed governors gave similar messages today that gave traders hope that the Fed may be done soon and oil went down slightly but not enough to give us momentum on the oil trades.

I did violate the Valero rule and added to my positions today although at no point in the day was it indicated that I should. I paid the price for it by taking a hit on all my new positions as well as the ones I already held but sometimes you do have to go with your feelings and I really do feel this one.

Here’s what happened in oil today:

  • Analysts are back to predicting $70 oil (always a sign of a top).
  • Venezuela seized (yes seized) ownership of two oil fields that were operated by TOT and ENI which, strangely, didn’t seem to bother their stocks.
  • Crude oil stocks are near storage capacity – we are importing less as there is no room for it.
  • 2M+ drawdowns are expected in tomorrow’s inventory, any less and May deliveries will panic.
  • An oil strike in Norway isn’t going to happen.
  • Shell Nigeria is back online.
  • A refinery crashed late afternoon, rescuing gas prices and lifting the complex.
  • Oil rallied back from $65.60 to close at $66.25 but the dollar was down too.
  • Traders expect a 2.5M gasoline draw tomorrow.

On the whole, it just didn’t seem like a good enough reason to change my mind on oil and you could easily see how others can panic so I’m pretending today didn’t happen. There will be no pretending tomorrow, any build means too much oil and anticipation of a draw is large so there is lots of room for disappointment.

Gold and copper held up, I only have BVN now and I’m happy with that one.


SEPR picked up 2% today on a nice low open and the May $50s finished at $3.80 (up 25%).

GM went down and down and down but the damn $17.50 puts stayed at .30. This could be a problem if it continues tomorrow. You would think a stock that has dropped $2 in 2 days would place more value on a put $2 away…

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Tuesday Morning

Asia is mixed but holding tremendous highs, Europe is slipping a bit but nothing drastic – hopefully they are all saving up some money to put it into our markets today! All eyes on the S&P today and which side of 1,300 we end up on but it will be the Nasdaq that determines our fate and that falls squarely on the broad shoulders of Microsoft. After this weekend’s Barron’s article, a lack of follow through would be a very bad sign. Gold held up overnight at $593 as interest rates have begun moving up all over the world. Oil prices are driving an overall fear of inflation and all these factors have people talking about a “Global economic slowdown” again. This has caused oil to drop back down to $66 (down $2 from yesterday) as the phrase “demand destruction” is bandied about again. I’d really like to see oil cross and close below $65 before getting heavy on the shorts but I’ll post the ones I’m watching below as I think today might be a good day to initiate positions (I’m already in on a bunch!). I’m still in wait and see mode for the most part, maybe once we get past this week I can relax. Also, if we’re right about our oil plays then the sector will create a huge drag on the market making it hard to achieve real gains. ===================================== Oil trades – closely following the Valero Rule and no trades if oil holds $66! It might be another week before we get a real turndown, with inventory out tomorrow anything can happen… On April’s, our goal is to get out asap with a profit as expiration is looming. BP May $65 puts for .45 DO Apr $85 puts for .95 HYDL May $75 puts for $3 MDR Apr $55 puts for $1.20 MUR Apr $50 puts for .95 NBR May $70 puts for $2.50 TSO Apr $65 puts for .90 RIG May $75 puts for $1.25 SII Apr $37.50 puts for .45 XOM May $60 puts for $1.10 SU May $75 puts for $2.50 Watch gasoline as another reason not to do these trades, if gasoline holds $1.80, its rebound may pull the sector back up this week. ===================================== SEPR’s study on Lumesta looks good and the company has been beaten down enough so I like the May $50s for $3 but with a…
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Monday Mop-Up

Maybe it wasn’t rocket science but I called the market downturn in comments right before they caved, I just didn’t like the action at the time.

I really don’t like what I see now: The Dow couldn’t hold 11,200, the Nasdaq couldn’t hold 2,350, the S&P can’t hold 1,300… Very bad signals!

Of course I did say this morning that you shouldn’t get all sucked in by the markets today and this is why – no real reason, just a weird drop!

Something very strange is going on in gold, it closed at $592 but the stocks turned down to the point where NEM actually closed negative! I used my itchy trigger finger to get out of that one too (again see comments) and I am really glad I escaped there with my profits intact!

Oil, on the other hand would have been perfect if I hadn’t already taken that Friday position. As it was I got a great entry on my 3rd round of 25% buy-ins and was rewarded for my patience with a huge Valero led drop in the afternoon.

The Valero rule helped us execute a very nice trade on XOM $60 puts at 1pm. We picked them up for just .30 and they closed at .50! We just have to hope it sticks…


DWA was a heck of a call on a lousy day. It opened flat and shot straight up (I think I’m not the only one who thought Ice Age was by them) and the Sept $30s finished the day at $1.30 (up 20%) so that’s a nice start on a long call…

I should have stuck to my guns and just shorted GM at the open! We picked up the $17.50 puts intraday for .30 but they didn’t move yet.

BVN held up better than the other golds so I stayed in and the Jun $30s ended at .70 (up 15%).

Wow, when I said SCI would be a great long-term play I didn’t mean 5 whole minutes! The stock rocketed up at the open to finish at $8.50 (up 9%).

PD banged right into the 5% rule today and pulled all the way back to a 4% gain. Why do gold stocks not do this? I smell shenanigans!!!

N was a clever way to play as no one pays attention to nickel but somewhere in the back of…
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Monday Morning

The Nikkei went up another 258 pts today. Had I moved to Japan last week like I wanted to I could have caught a 1,000 point rally. All of Asia is up nicely (India is totally on fire) and Europe is flying up on the best manufacturing gains in 5 years.

Unfortunately, a busy world means some justification for high oil so we may have to wait yet another week before it turns down. Just to show you that Iran has a better sense of humor than you think, their “military exercises” that are being conducted in the Gulf this week are code named “High Prophet” which refers to both Allah as well as their expert ability to keep oil prices near $70 despite a global glut.

We are close to the same situation we had back on Feb 2nd (see “Oil’s Well That Ends Well?”) when we correctly predicted that traders were all “feared out” and the fundamentals would take over. That call made us a ton of money as oil dropped $10 pretty much from that day through the middle of the month.

While on the one hand I would like oil to retest $70, giving us a neat triple top, a turn here could also begin a pattern of forming lower highs and lower lows that we need if we want to get oil back to the low $50s this year.

One sign I’ve been watching that should get enormous press but isn’t is the fact that our man Chavez is looking to sell oil for $50 a barrel. That’s right, one of the chief oil agitators, a man sitting on reserves that may equal Saudi Arabia (but will not allow inspectors to verify this) wants to sell long-term contracts for $50 oil right now! Why? Because it costs $40 a barrel to produce Venezualan oil and he sees the big drop coming and wants to maintain his margins. Will there be any takers?

OPEC is rushing over there next month to talk him out of it, expect Chavez to either move way up in the ranks or break with the cartel (what can I say, he’s a nut – it could go either way!).

It was good to hold our gold on Friday as it is right back over $590 but don’t forget that in the game of gold poker, the Americans often…
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Phil's Favorites

Congress is considering privacy legislation - be afraid


Congress is considering privacy legislation – be afraid

Courtesy of Jeff Sovern, St. John's University

Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis called privacy the “right to be let alone.” Perhaps Congress should give states trying to protect consumer data the same right.

For years, a gridlocked Congress ignored privacy, apart from occasionally scolding companies such as Equifax and Marriott after their major data breaches. In its absence, ...

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Zero Hedge

Key Events This Week: Trade War, EU Elections, Durables, PMIs And Fed Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Looking at this week's key events, Deutsche Bank's Craig Nicol writes that while the unpredictable nature of US-China trade developments will likely continue to be the main focus for markets again next week, we also have the European Parliament elections circus to look forward to as well as various survey reports including the flash May PMIs which may offer some insight into the impact of trade escalation on economic data. The FOMC and ECB meeting minutes are also due, along with a heavy calendar of Fed officials speaking.

The European Parliament elections will kick off next Thursday with voting continuing into the weekend across the continent, with results expected on Sunday. With the elections surrounded by internal and external challenges for the EU, members di...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will S&P 500 Double Top Derail The Rally?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The rally off the December stock market lows has been strong, to say the least. The S&P 500 rallied 25 percent before hitting and testing the 2018 high.

The old highs proved to be formidable resistance and ushered in some volatility in May… and a 5 percent pullback.

In today’s 2-pack, we look at that resistance level – could that be a double top? We can see similar patterns develop on the S&P 500 Index and its Equal Weight counterpart.

Both indexes are testing short-term Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent decline at point (2).

What takes place here after potential double top highs will be important. Stay tuned...

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Insider Scoop

60 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Fastly, Inc. (NYSE: FSLY) shares jumped 50 percent to close at $23.99 on Friday. Fastly priced its 11.25 million share IPO at $16 per share.
  • Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OTLK) shares climbed 37.3 percent to close at $2.10 on Friday after the stock rose over 68 percent Thursday following an Oppenheimer initiation at Outperform with a price target of $12.
  • Cray Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAY) shares rose 22.5 percent to close at $36.52 after Hewlett Packard Enterpri... more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.


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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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