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Thinking About It Thursday

I am behind schedule so I will keep this brief!


I know that's very unprofessional and a writer should never let you think he hasn't fully researched everything better than you could ever hope to but I'd rather let you know I had a busy day and am a little behind as I'm sure this does happen to you at least once every few years and you can relate.

So I just finished the wrap-up and it's already ten to eight and we have 90 minutes until the market opens so let's see what we can accomplish between now and then:

Asia fell again!  China is boosting the Yuan as the dollar gathers strength so it's net neutral for trade and they get to pretend they are trying to help.  Very interesting action in Japan as Finance and Brokerage shares led a 100 point Nikkei drop!  Take heed all you people who asked me what calls to buy on GS and MS – I still don't like them…

The Hang Seng  gave up ANOTHER 182 points and it looks like they are determined to test the 50 dma at 19,250 – a 1,300 point drop since Jan 5th!  As I said on Monday – "Are you prepared for a 300 point drop in the Dow?"  I'm not saying it will happen but I am saying it could VERY EASILY happen and I get very worried when I see people trading with no hedges.

Europe is in a good mood as the ECB held rates steady again at 3.5% but the BOE riased rates to 5.25% as housing is making a strong comeback there and inflation is ahead of UK targets (2.7% to 2%).  Russia seems to have resolved their issues with Belarus and I have to tip my hat to Putin as cutting them off for a couple of days – much better than dragging it out in court!

What's in a name?  We'll find out today as CSCO sues AAPL over the IPhone name I am dumbfounded at how Apple had the nerve to hold that event and announce the name IPhone without clearing this matter up first.  Apple seems to think that a cell phone is very different from a VOIP phone and that Cisco's very legal trademark won't hold up across categories.  The key to a judge's decision in a matter like this is whether the similar names will cause confusion in the marketplace so let the games begin!

And what's in a market?  We'll find out today but I'm starting to think we're just kind of flatlining into next week's very heavy data, not to mention options expiration on Friday (you should be holding no January contracts other than momentum plays).  Expect a downtick at the open at least as we need to retest our levels to see if they're real, if not, we will neet to do some considerable lightening up of positions so I'm setting trailing stops on 20% of the profits on at least 1/2 of all Jan, Feb and March positions:

 $53.75 (new dollar adjusted target) will hopefully be a top to oil for the rest of the week.  We can look down the line to a test of $52.50 and, obviously $50.  I don't know if there is anything they can do at this point to stop the slide with 150,000 February delivery contracts in need of selling but we'll certainly keep a close eye on it!

Gas inventories are out today and Zman has an excellent look ahead posted already (at least one of us is on top of things today) and makes a great case for an unbelievably low 42Bcf draw.  Let's remember that anything under 100 is terrible news for gas companies.   Like me, Z is starting to feel bad for poor OPEC and has taken to giving them some advice on how to properly support prices…

The bottom line at the NYMEX, huge drops on record volumes – even CNBC is giving up at this point!

The dollar is making further advances against the Euro and the Yen but still faces heavy resistance at 85.5 so we'll watch that closely, keying off gold's gyrations between $610 and $620.


Again I stick with my premise – how can the markets go down with $54 oil??? 

I don't care what kind of drag the collapsing commodity prices exert on their sector, the rest of the market should be loading up for a major rally.  It seems that, slowly but surely, people are coming around to my view but we are still climbing the proverbial "wall of worry" as we take yet another pass around the planet Dow, looking to break orbit and head back to 12,600.

No picks today (although we keep making a ton during the day) but I'm looking for us to pull out of this dreary pre-market and BUYBUYBUY as oil touches $53 at some point.

It's been a while since anyone was willing to sell me a DALRQ Jan '08 $2.50 for .05 but I may be cashing some out today as LLC raised their hostile bid to $10.3Bn, up 20% from their last offer!

DNA had huge, I'm sorry, I meant to say HUGE earnings so congrats to everyone who made that play!  They were so good we may be sorry we sold the Jan $85s for $1.75 but we are so happy with the Jan '08 $85s we picked up Monday for $10, who cares!

GRMN dropped fast on us but I'm back in the Feb $55s at $1.80.

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  1. Phil, What do you think the real value of XOM share price to be?

  2. Am almost sure I read on Tues 1-9-7 that AAPL was reported to be in final negotiations with CSCO regarding the use of the trademark held by CSCO aka Iphone. Just checked and article no longer is accessible but the headline read “Cisco expects Apple to ink deal on ‘iPhone’ trademark today
    2:10 PM ET, Jan 09, 2007″. Somebody must have suddenly changed their demands or concessions???

  3. Phil, I own GOOG Jan 460 calls from last year, should I be rolling this to Feb $500 or $510? Thanks.


  4. Good Morning Everyone

    SHLD had a super strong day yesterday. Congratulations to those holding it!
    Am I the only person on that planet that doesn’t understand the fundamentals
    here? The stock is selling at a higher PE than TGT which has twice the profit
    margin and twice the ROA and ROE of SHLD. I know about the real estate aspect
    and that Eddie Lampert is a reputed genius, but come on, we’re talking Sears
    and Kmart. Its a great trading stock, but I don’t get it Someone please enlighten me.

  5. Juliet,
    Got another charting service that says the chart on GS is looking sweet. So mad I didn’t add yesterday at $200

  6. I like SHLD because I believe Eddie will make this company into the next Berkshire.


  7. What da ya guys think about AAPL Feb puts??

  8. CNBC hammering on AAPL again this AM… They’re still at it
    I took profits on oil puts yesterday (yeah, I know), and am looking for some new entries at todays levels.

    What are your favorite plays. I’ll probably get back on The COP feb 65′s, what else?


  9. Juliet,

    I’ve heard that argument before and I hope you are right. But if someone has the money they can buy the real thing cheaper than they can buy the next maybe.

  10. I have the COP Feb 65 Puts @ a cost of 1.45. Sold the COP Jan 65′s yesterday for 1.40, may have to buy them back today.

  11. Any thoughts on shorting IYR as in buying the MAR 84 P’s at 1.9? Still cant fathom how the housing and real estate stocks seem to be so resiliant to the forecasts of a housing downturn…..

  12. GOOG showing up $7.50. Do we have an earnings play Phil?

  13. Albo, hope it is…guess time will tell.


  14. AAPL, if spikes early today after brief pull back, put seems right, if it stays on down path without spike, 93 or so will provide floor before another advance starts….. I think…That is…

  15. FCX is acting funny, as if changing direction….,better keep tight stop on gold stuff(nem too..)

  16. LVS & WYNN both looks like profit taker coming in after yesterday’s huge run.


  17. The iPhone trademark question is actually pretty easy.

    Will Cisco give us the trademark? Let’s try to negotiate a deal with them.

    What if they don’t give us the trademark? What do the lawyers say?

    Having just spoken to a couple of friends who are intellectual property lawyers and are following this situation closely, they say that a trademark is only a trademark for a particular field (aka market). And that Cisco’s trademark was not granted in the field in which they’re now trying to claim it. Essentially Cisco (aka Infogear) trademarked a product that provides backoffice support for providing telephone service. And arguably Apple would trademark the name for a mobile phone. And arguably these two products serve different markets and thus this would be allowable use.

    Well it gets blurrier is that Cisco now wants to expand the trademark; however, they’ve never done the paperwork to expand the trademark. Secondly, Cisco really did let the trademark languish for years and it’s only after the name gained currency because of the Apple speculation (starting back in 2001 or 2002!) that Cisco designed that there might be value in the brand.

    Frankly, even if Cisco had firm legal standing (which is tenuous), I’d have to say that they’ve been Kleenex’d/Xerox’d. iPhone has come to mean something else in the public mind. It’s too late to “defend” this particular trademark. And, in any case, as evidenced by the fun and games last month, the public as a whole had no idea that Cisco was using this name.

    Worse case for Apple? They change the name. What do they care, they’re not shipping until June. And they already avoided the “fiasco” of not introducing the iPhone. Of course, that doesn’t mean that the market will agree today. But I hope that it will…


  18. Kudos to Appleflimflam and reinharden for the prognostications on AAPL for the last mos or so….has made for a great 007 so far. Many tanks

  19. XOM – that does depend on the price of oil but I would give them a 20% premium to a barrel so $64 right now. They very well may test $67 before they make a real turn if they can’t pull it out at $70.

    Google making a run at $500 so I’m finally taking the other end of my spread by selling the Jan $500s for $8 against the Feb $510s for $18.75

  20. Oh sorry – First take the Feb, and wait for a test (hopefully) at $500 – get no less than $7 for the Jans

  21. Picked up some Bidu Jan 140 Call at .60
    Akam Feb Call at 3.30

  22. Phil, I do not own any oil puts at the moment. do you think I can use today’s bouce to get some XLE and XOM puts? thanks.

  23. Dropped Nem put.

  24. Phil,

    Remember my INFY spreads (Feb/Jan 55 Calls and Puts). I got the Call spread for .7 (now 1.1) and the Put spread for .5 (now 1). INFY at 55.7
    Any suggestions on what I should do?


  26. Phil,

    Great call on COP. Most oils up, COP down.

  27. Phil,
    Interested in PBR and/or PTR puts?

  28. Phil, I have an assignment for you. ;-)

    We need a good for Apple for next week probably at least into April.

    Fiscal Q1 earnings will likely be stellar; however, forecast for Q2 is likely going to be “disappointing” (it almost always is because for Apple Q2 is always smaller than Q1 but the analysts never seem to remember that). Earnings and conference call could pop the stock or drop the stock (and we all remember last year).

    Apple will have a steady stream of product announcements over the next several months because they’ve given MacWorld over to the iPhone announcement. But Leopard (aka MacOS 10.5) is still on track to ship in the first half of the year. And that’s worth a fair bit (perhaps $129 * at least 10 million over the course of the first year). The Beatles are likely to pop up on iTunes with some exclusivity (although I don’t buy the CNBC giddy “that’s a billion dollars in revenue by itself”). Anyway, there’s a few billion in extra revenue that isn’t yet publicly visible…and that might prop the stock up.

    But while those new products are rolling out, we’re going to get a steady diet of “What’s wrong with the iPhone” between now and its release. And that may drive the stock down until the speculation about its imminent release starts to pick up (I’m guessing April will be late enough for that) and, of course, once the April earnings release shows that, once again, Apple didn’t go bankrupt during the first quarter. ;-)

    So Phil, your mission is to find us the straddle (or some such trade) that keeps us happy through some possibly major gyrations (although hopefully not as bad as last years). I’m hoping that with so much recent entry by what looked like institutional investors, we won’t get the same kind of winter misery. But I think it’d be worth thinking hard about hedging.

    That having been said. My dream scenario is that Q1 numbers are so astounding that Apple pops to $110+ next week. And then the SEC says “Not worth our time”. And Apple announces a 3-to-1 or 4-to-1 split. And Vista ships. And Apple starts the Leopard blitz (if you’ve got to upgrade your PC to run a new version of your OS, why not try our OS).

    But a straddle might be a safer trade.


  29. APPL – I read that article too and I think there should be a law against webzines pulling articles they write when they turn out to be wrong! You can still see it referenced but the link is gone here:

    Always be aware of the editorial virtue of the people you read!


    Congrats J – good day for it! I recommned selling and moving to the play I just did, it takes you off the table and lowers the risk you are taking on additional profits. Note that I am also going to DD on my Mar $470 puts at no more than $15 (now $14) as I’m really just playing the spread into earnings.


    SHLD – I could go on and on extolling the virtues of Sears but yes, it’s an Eddie Lampert is Warren Buffet story in the end. You say you understand the real estate aspect of it but have you really thought about what 4,000 prime downtown and mall anchor locations are really worth? How about a nationwide distribution system that has been running smoothly for 100 years? National equipment service systems that already has business relationships with 20% of the homes in this country?

    $1Bn a year in income, $15Bn in cash ($12bn net of liabilities) and they bought back 5% of the stock this year (and, unlike XOM, Eddie buys on the dips only, with $400M in Q1, $92M in Q2 and $300M in Q3).


    AAPL – don’t buy puts because they may have to call it the APhone, granted it’s not as cool a name but neither is Zune and you will absolutely throw up when they annouce a deal with Cisco along with earnings – these two guys are not going to spend 3 years in court over this…

    Look how the $100s got crushed! I wish I hadn’t been greedy and sold them yesterday – another example of “do as I say, not as I do” because I often get greedy and it always bites me in the ass!


    IYR – other than very short plays, I do not short HBs – it’s a very painful sport.


    LVS – thank goodness! I was sweating that one!


    IPhone trademark – Apple DOES NOT want to win based on the fact that IPhone is fair common use! Then you’d have the Motorolla IPhone and the Nokia IPhone and the Sony IPhone… no way, they’d rather pay Cisco A LOT than be forced to document common usage in a court fight.


  30. Phil,

    What is the retracement target for XOM?

    Also, got in on the LVS Mar 95 puts yesterday for $3.7, should I just hold for a while or sell the Feb 95′s for 3.7 and have a zero basis?

  31. What’s up with oil pump this am, anybody?

  32. Phil,

    Great call (or put, shall I say?). Very Gutsy! I was lucky that it gapped down and I had no chance to chase calls.

    BIDU is getting the GOOG effect. Are u still holding them?

  33. Phil, I think BIDU is heading to $140 and I own Feb 130 and Mar 130 from couple days back…perhaps good time to buy puts or sell calls just for in case it doesnt? Thanks.


  34. COP breaking through 200 dma. Reserve Additions of 300% were almost entirely (2.5 of 2.6 billion BOE) attributable to acquisitions. Doesn’t say much for their efforts with the drill bit despite the year long elevation in rig counts.

    While most stocks are up they’re only back to yesterday afternoon levels. Waiting to see gas inventories but if we get a weak number I think these levels (10-10:30) will prove to be HOD.

  35. Bidu I am still holding. I will make a decision closer to GOOG earnings.

  36. Phil, thanks for the GOOG play, just rolled it over to Feb 510 and waiting to sell Jan.


  37. Thanks Phil, I somewhat get it.

  38. WFR finally breaking out!

  39. Yes but let’s see what’s up here, looks like a huge buy program on the energy sector and it will hing on whether or not the NYMEX pump boys can follow through but this is that “rising tide lifiting alll ships” that I warned about yesterday.

    COP not being helped yet – as I said the other day, they had the furthest to fall.


    INFY – nice deal – ***ALWAYS SELL INTO THE INITIAL EXCITEMENT*** set a tight stop on at least half your calls (which should get at least $2), like .30 and hope for your puts to come back a little but, obviously, who cares with that profit!


    Rein, you missed my July $100s for $7 selling the Jan $100s for $3 (could have had $4 at the close too – kick, kick…)

    Something similar to that – grab the July $100s while you can I think although they are holding $10 despite the Jans getting crushed.

    I’ll think about it more as the day shapes up but we both know this is one stupid sell-off.

  40. MO
    Time to take profits!

  41. Phil thanks making so much money with your plays!!!


  42. good morning phil – can i buy feb 520 call at 14.70, can i sell jan 520 or jan 510 against them. please advise

  43. Rein,

    One thing that also crushed AAPL last year was transition to intel. That introduced uncertainty due to a slowdown in Mac sales. People were holding off buying until transition was complete. 2006 Q1 revenues were light on the Mac sales and that in addition to “uncertainty” of transition added to the downward spiral last winter, spring.

    This year there does not seem to be such uncertainty, there is nothing, except slower upcoming quarters (compared to the holiday quarter) that could hit the stock. However nothing stops anyone from dreaming something up.

    So the question is what will Apple stock do in the near term say into February, and longer term, past February. If you go into Jan 2005, when Apple split, downward draft started shortly after the split. Apple had an amazing holiday season also, but there was nothing like the iPhone coming up.


  44. Phil, sorry about that. I was only responding to what AAPL was *thinking*, not what they’re going to actually *say* publicly. AAPL’s negotiating posture would include “Look, we’ll salt the earth via common use…or you can agree to share it and we’ll both protect the brand…your choice”.


  45. Yes great call on the LVS puts. is this a ride with a trailing 10% stop? or keep it tighter for a reversal?

  46. XOM – $72 looked tough to beat for them! That was yesterday’s open and they dove from there.

    BIDU will get dragged down by China if it collapses. If the Dow was at 20,000 and Google was at $950 would you be jumping on the $1,000s? Just be careful! If you own the Feb and Mar $130s – sell them! Especially the Febs.

    You are risking $10 on the Febs, I assume half is proftit – cash out and take the $140s for $5 so your base is off the table and you can set a $2.50 stop to preserve a 50% gain. The March’s will be less volatile but you will want to ladder them up too once you hit $135 on the underlying.

    Once your calls go in the money, you have diminishing % returns the higher the stock goes and it’s always a good idea to shift to a box that is either higher in price or longer in time as it lowers your pullback risk. As a rule of thumb – If I’m not willing to buy the ladder position naked, then I should just close out my call as I obviously don’t believe strongly enough to risk my profits.


    Here comes inventories!!!!


    WFR – good call!

  47. MA had a negative article in IBD.


  48. EBAY coming back nicely this morning. I got out of Jan and Feb calls back in low 30′s but hold Apr’s. Is there a play here or is this puppy still too sick?

  49. Phil, I didn’t actually miss that. I, um, wanted more exposure. Which, shall we say, worked out well. And you may recall that I started building a position for MacWorld/January earnings back in July. So while I wanted more exposure, by the time your previous suggestion came up, I was already as in to Apple as I was going to get. ;-)

    But now that we’re trading at $95 instead of $85, and since AAPL didn’t leak any results in the MacWorld keynote as they’ve sometimes done in the past, we’ve got another event on the horizon that can move the stock +/- 10% in one day. Maybe on Monday, I’ll look for a super short-term straddle. Unless we see too much weakness today or tomorrow in which case I’ll just go naked long.


  50. Phil, is FXI calls good to hold?

  51. LVS – my goal on the Feb $95 puts is $4.50, after that I will set a .25 Tstop.

    CHK $27.50 puts are just .35, fun mo play.

  52. Rein, Markets are closed monday

  53. U.S. natural gas supply down 49 bln cubic feet: Energy Dept.

  54. PBR up 4! Dying to Short. Waiting on your say so Phil

  55. One more thing on the trademark thing. CSCO still has to prove that it infringes. The USPTO didn’t think that it did on the face of it or they would have immediately rejected Apple’s trademark registration of iPhone (applied for under Ocean Telecomm). However, if you look such things up at, be aware that until is says “Assignment Recorded”, it’s not an assigned trademark. Just one that’s been applied for. But AAPL’s registration is still live which means that it’s still under consideration.

    That’s all part of the “CSCO’s trademark is tenuous” thing.


  56. Profit taking on MA. Missed the sell at 108

  57. Phil,

    I have 500 shares of yhoo with a basis of 25.39. I was looking at selling the FEB 30s, what are your thoughts?

  58. Pitch – Oh yeah, good point on the markets being closed and all. ;-)

    Well, the good news is that Apple doesn’t report until after the close on Wednesday, so I guess I’ll have to do that dance on Tuesday ’cause I really don’t want to build an expiring options position the Friday before expiration when the danged market is going to be closed 3 of the next 7 days. Half my time value would melt before I had a chance to trade again!

    Yev – I definitely agree with what you’ve said. But even with a nifty new product on the horizon, I’m leery of telling myself that this time is going to be different. On the other hand, I just double checked Jan, 2005, and while I thought that had sold off as well, apparently that was Apr, 2005. What can I say, I got annoyed with AAPL, INTC, and MOT over the last 18 months due to a series of “the best quarter/year in the history of the company” followed by a sale-off.

    While I have swept some profits (my AAPL ladder started at $60 and tops at $110 for Jan, $130 for Apr), earnings season is irresistible to me and AAPL remains the most appealing stock I closely track.


  59. Commodities are having a rebound.

    ATI above 91, again!

  60. GOOG – Oh I forgot, we’re supposed to be trying a new thing. I will try to remember to place an XXX in front of trades I’m officially adding, as opposed to trades we discuss. Also, please preface your comments with symbols as it will probably help everyone find conversation threads.

    Anyway, the $500 spread makes more sense, you want to be as close to the money as possible or you get not enough from the calls you sell to offset your (considerable) risk. Don’t forget I already have the $470 puts, I would never do this on just one side. My poor caller already lost $1! Why? Because I sold it to him in the initial excitement!!!

    And, by the way, I was greedy and only got $7.25 when I should have taken the $8 – one day I will learn my lesson….


    EBAY – we nailed that yesterday but I think it will peg $30 into expiration. Of course I’m sitting on dead $32.50s anyway so I’d be thrilled if it went higher although I sold the Jan $30s to cover them so I think I’ll take a dime and get out on the $32.50s. – XXX


    FXI – the leaps, sure this is the rally we were hoping for that should bounce Asia. We haven’t even lost any money on a 180 point drop so sentiment is certainly with us so far!

  61. GS!!

  62. CME making all-time. Phil is this stock we could use as a income producer? Selling calls against a jan 08 leap

  63. What’s every’s take on Nasdaq breaking out, and rebound in commodities, down-turn (profit-taking?) in Asian markets? And, how does the dollar play into all of this? Where’s the big money going?

  64. Phil,
    PBR FEB90 Puts @ 1.60. Buy here?

  65. PBR all oil – stopped out on many already not getting back in right away, this can keep going until the weekend. I’ll do a review list in a little while.


    MA – man that was quicker than I thought, I would have DD’d on the spike had I known! No real movement on the April puts though, it will take more than this.


    YHOO, I think if you are looking to preserve your profit you have to say that the Feb $30s are paying you $31.20 to be called away with $1.20 protection while the July $27.50s will pay you $31.60 with $4.10 protection and you can take $1.20 and buy your own Febs so you have no seller’s remorse (you can set a trailing stop at .50).

  66. MOT – Phil, at what level does MOT become a private equity play?

    Nearly $15B in cash ($6+/share) with only $4B in debt and a book value of $7+/share. Enterprise value of about $33B brings you $42B in revenue and nearly $5B in operating cash flow last year.

    Freescale was nearly an $18B deal MOT isn’t even twice as big at the moment…


  67. GS soooooo relieved energy is coming back.

    CME – I’m still worried about a real commodity burst souring these exchanges but it is a tempting play

    Nasdaq – this is the big global rotation into a US, Nasdaq led rally I was hoping for but it really seems too good to be true!

    PBR/Oil – no this train is going the wrong way – standing in the tracks and assuming it will stop exactly where you are standing, let you get on and change direction once you are seated is not the best plan. Someone is buying the energy patch (even COP) in bulk and we just need to let ourselves stop out and wait for another opportunity.

  68. Phil,
    Nice call on DNA a couple of days ago.

  69. DIA $125 DD making money…thanks!


  70. Phil, are you getting out of all your oil stock puts on stops, or just some of them?

  71. Thanks a lot you guys for the commentary on this Apple/Cisco iPhone trademark debacle. The price of admission here is worth the chatter alone that takes place here on a daily basis.

  72. DNA
    Nice play, taking profits!

    Waiting for it to break 500!

  73. INTC, seems to be banging its head repeatedly just under $22 (~$21.95), any thoughts and expectation on it breaking through?

  74. This is so much fun around here. I still find it hard to believe that we had to defend the cost of private membership, six weeks ago. I already spent that in commissions.

    Thank you, Phil – for strategies – and the rest of you providing YAGPs (Yet Another Good Pick)

  75. _fab, I was wondering the same thing about INTC. Earnings next week, and look at the call volume on the Jan’s.

  76. phil
    was supposed to remind you to buy your AA caller…
    speaking of which am thinking about doing same for my sndk caller… is it good idea? seems SNDK has launched…

  77. AAPL – Check out
    for an interesting comparison between the current generation of smart phones and the iPhone in terms of features and price.

    One thing that only just now dawned on me; all of the $149/$199/$299 smartphones listed here have no more than 128 MB of onboard storage with a slot for an “up to” 2 GB SD card. Which starts around $50. So we’ve got $100 of SD in the $499 price and $200 of SD in the $599 price when we look at the 4/8 GB models. In other words, AAPL charges $399 for the device and $100/$200 for 4GB/8GB.

    And the other guys, at the moment, can only go to 2 GB max.

    If that sinks in, it’ll help reduce the pricing concerns a bit.


  78. Glad I set all those 20% trails! Saved me a fortune on oil!

    Still these are likely to be good buy-in spots for fresh moves so let’s watch the Valero group for signs of a real downturn as crude is not holding $54.34, our last significant barrier.

    COP $65 puts gone at $1.85
    COP Feb $65 puts stop set at $2.50 (because they were a roll I did a 30% trail)
    CVX Mar $70 puts – did not put a stop in just .30 ove my entry – great entry as it was $3 this morning! XXX
    EOG Feb $55 puts – rolls so had stops at .50, not triggered (plus I just added CHK!)
    MRO Apr $85 puts – hey, they’re April – gut it out!
    OII Jan $37.50 puts – roll with stop at .40, did not trigger yet (close)
    OII Apr $40 puts – Still $4, stop at $3.50
    PBR Feb $90 puts, roll back to even at $1.75 – NOW IS A GOOD REENTRY XXX
    PTR Feb $130 puts – haven’t sold yet but $5.50 is about my limit
    RDS.A – Feb $65 puts – Roll, holding to .60
    VTS – Feb $80 puts – out at $3.20 (that really sucks!)
    XOM – Feb $72.50 puts, $75 puts – you know I didn’t give up on these!

  79. INTC – I like INTC longer-term; however, I don’t have insight into how the computer vendors quarters shook out yet. Have any of them warned?

    INTC will likely report that they took some marketshare back from AMD. And that margins are increasing. And they’ll likely forecast continuing to take back marketshare and grow margins.

    I’ve a lot more confidence in them next quarter than this quarter, but I’ll likely do a long earnings play since the options will be moderately inexpensive.


  80. Love the Triple XXX Marker!

    My thoughts on gas summarized at:

  81. Hey Zman love the cluster map feature.

  82. iPhone: we can also add up the price of a 8gb iPod and a decent smart phone and we realize the price is quite good, all the cool features are a bonus.
    The HP hw69xx is similar and will be selling for a similar price, sans the 8gb iPod.

  83. Happy Trading
    Took a little off the table on BIDU.

  84. Hey Phil, what are your thoughts on CHK Calls dated out a little, it seems to be right at support, looking at the 2 year chart it has not broken that $27ish level….thanks

  85. AG Edwards bashing COP in comments this am siting lack of organic growth and calling into question the quality of COP’s project backlog.

  86. kustomz,

    Yep, it’s pretty cool although I get a bit nervous when I see those hits in Tehran and Nigeria!

  87. Thanks, Phil.

  88. MOT – I’d buy the damn thing if I had the cash!


    DNA – I think we may be right on the button with our caller!


    DIA – you and me both J – I didn’t think I’d see those again. Half off is the way to go – always remember, we DD’d to get our money back – mission accomplished, be happy with a double on your original amount which is now a free ride.


    Thanks Kwan – that was our goal in going private – we had such a good core group and we were just getting buried as the site picked up popularity we weren’t even able to get the trades as they would get snapped up the second I prinited them!


    INTC probably held below $22.50 through expiration but I am lovin my Feb $22.50s but I am thankfully out of my Jan $22.50s at .35 or .30 as I had written those off as hopeless!


    AA – not buying him out on today’s action! So far not encouraging, I think they are going to flatline.

    SNDK – you can see why I don’t ride them naked! Scary dip!


    Apple pricing concerns are the same PR spin by the same guys who brought you the “Steve Jobs is under arrest” stories over thanksgiving. Who the hell doesn’t see that this thing is worth $500. If they called it a cheap, small laptop with a phone feature they could have charged $999 and people would have lined up out the door.

  89. BillBigD,

    “You-the-Man” with BIDU and ICE!! I agree with keeping some BIDU, especially for you with the March’s. GOOG still has room to go, giving some insurance to holding on to BIDU. BIDU chart looks good too!

  90. GOOG just touched 500! I don’t think it’s started to run yet!


    Got the PBR FEB 90 puts!

  91. Cramer bought LAMR today for his Charitable Trust that he always raves about on Mad Money.

    What are you guys thinking about our housing puts (KBH, LEN, etc…) and are you adding to your oil puts or stopping out? Phil?

    FXI, what’s the play on this? We have a nice gain on our calls, but it looks like the situation is precarious. I’m tempted to put on puts.

    GS!!!!! MO!!!!! take profits?

  92. I’m really digging the XXX marker too. Good idea!

  93. Reinharden

    Here’s a possibility for AAPL – cheaper than a straddle at 95…..

    January options (not much time for a move but heck earnings is the catalyst!)
    105 Short put $9.00
    95 Long Put $2.20
    90 Long Put $0.75

    Risk = $3.95
    Reward upside = $6.05
    Reward downside -> A lot :-) [2 long puts for each short put]

    95 straddle would have risk of $5.70 (though a 100/95 strangle would be cheaper – though you need bigger upside movement to be profitable)

  94. Zach/Jeff

    GS/MO profits already did!

  95. Divrced Bidu call at doubie, left a few as a scout…

  96. I subscribe to the Cramer AAPLUS service for my med/longer term stock port and read that alert/announcement shortly after he made it. I didn’t realize how many people must subscribe to that service because if you look at the intraday chart for LAMR you will see a HUGE gap up on MASSIVE volume (relative to typical LAMR volume) right at the moment the alert was released and for a minute or two after. Anyway, it was very interesting to me to see the Cramer affect in full force with AAPLUS (I have not subscribed long enough to see this behavior).

    Billboards are not my thing so I “will be taking no action on this alert.”

  97. Phil, any thoughts on stx? Looks like like it’s trying to breakout of that two month channel. macd crossover close to happening.

  98. GOOG
    Taking 1/2 Jan call positions off the table, adding 1/4 into Febs.

  99. SNDK -scratch buying my caller -if stocks fluctuate like this till Feb hey they might expire at zilch
    AMZN -waited for 38 to get in first batch on the Feb 37.5 now in at 2.1

  100. Got in BP Feb 60 P at .6

  101. INTC – the question is did they or did they not ship a Gazillion new chipsets to Dell, HPQ etc who are building computers now for shipping with Vista next quarter? 1.2 Gazillion is my guess.

    Oh also, did Dell and HPQ want to take the charge for the chips in Q4 ’06 or Q1 and 2 ’07, that comes into play too as ship dates can always be fudged.


    Gas – yes, there’s a lot of it! 8-)

    Hence my CKH put earlier, despite the entire energy complex rising against me. I know they are hedged but, like I said, they will have to flat out stop producing in July as the pipes fill to bursting with product.

    Someone will figure that out this weekend.

    For people who missed this – check out Z’s chart, it’s not so much that we will start Jan with over 3Tcf in storage, it’s that betwen March and October they add 2Tcf to storage. If max storage is 3.4Tcf, then everything over 1.4Tcf in March represents somewhere along the line that the gas companies will have to actually shut down their wells before October.

    They must either do that or figure out some way to get us to consume roughly 100% more gas than usual from April through October – almost impossible, even if they give it away! Like I said earlier in the summer – this is what the LNG scam is all about, if they create a demand for liquid gas they get to stick another 3-5Tcf in storage while they tell you how expensive gas is!

    Oh, and I hope that answers Cal’s question re. CHK calls…


    They are pumping Feb contracts for all they’re worth – don’t let them lie to you…

    Feb down .24, Mar down .41, Apr down .64, May down .82, June down .99, July down $1.23!!!!

    Open interest is still 251K, they haven’t even gotten rid of any yet – this is a pure BS pump!!!!


    VTS setting up for another great put opportunity.


    COP – were they actually positive before??? They dropped so fast I didn’t even get a chance to reposition but I wasn’t going to blow a double in case they kept going.

  102. Zach/Jeff

    Check out Phil’s “Pizza Theory” under “Strategies”. If it’s still not cooked, you can always put it back in the microwave.

    Here we go! Helmet and seatbelt on!!

  103. HPQ hits new 52 week high, quietly

    BA poised for a beak out soon, next week seems right.

    SNDK, CEO says willing to sacrifice near term profits to gain market share. not good

    YUM breaking out

    Not much to hold back stocks connected to VISTA release

    Not taking long any long positions today, short and sweet


  105. Luv that microvave and roach motel theory…very clever


  106. India out-sourcing stocks SAY INFY CTSH, all up big on INFY earnings

  107. Here goes NMX

  108. PBR may be the put of the day!


    GOOG well I’m up a buck and my caller’s up a buck – I can live with that!


    Oil – content with what I have at the moment but checking out XOM $72.50s as a mo trade while crude drops back below $53.50 XXX if we get a Valero group signal.

    Pay particular attention to SLB and SU for a breakdown.


    Builders – too tricky to play.


    FXI – I’m not the only one who realizes a Dow rally means a China bounce – what a gift this morning! I bought the ‘o8 $110s to be a full year income producer when it gets back to $110, there’s no need to do anything here but enjoy the ride.


    WOW – check out HOS!!! TDW will follow. CKH too! TRMA… All the gulf plays as no ones going to mess around with deepwater drilling with oil at $45 so theres a lot of people betting this oil move is no blip!

    VTS Feb $80 puts @ $2.75 XXX


    LAMR – Billboards are big business but not $71 big, time to take the Feb $70 puts for $1.40 XXX

    $7Bn market cap ($500M just added) and they’ll earn MAYBE $50M this year. SELLSELLSELL


    STX – let it break out – and that’s just sour grapes as I should have bought it $1 ago (only 2 day ago).

    At this point I want to make sure the train ISN’T turning back at the next station.


    Arnie – that’s the point, we get ‘em sooner or later!


    AMZN – I don’t know, I still have my puts open and they didn’t even force me out in this rally!


    BP – always good for a laugh…

  109. INFY
    Looked at it last night. I think it’s got room to go up more, but, the premiums are high on its options. Have you pulled the trigger on this, or, did you get in before the earnings?

  110. Rein,

    this was posted on cramers site by bob faulkner who seems to know what he is talking about. you agree?

    Let me preface this by saying I could be completely incorrect but maybe some of our readers can ferret out additional information on the subject.

    When Apple introduced the iPhone (or whatever it will be called) the other day, the WOW-factor appeared to hit new levels in large part due to the touch-screen interface and the amazing way it was implemented to create ease-of-use and maximum flexibility. Balda AG, a German company that is supposedly supplying the screen saw it’s stock up more than 15% the day following the introduction.

    Now, take a trip over to Endgadget today and check out the new (yet to be announced apparently) LG KE850. As the article suggests, was this the iPhone’s twin and they were separated at birth?

    While I don’t know for certain, I believe that the real secret behind the user interface on these two devices is CY’s CapSense technology. AAPL has used it on their iPods (although neither party with acknowledge it) and LG used it on their very successful Chocolate phone.

    As I’ve indicated in the past, CY’s PSoC technology (programmable system-on-a-chip), of which CapSense is an application specific subset, is unique, proprietary and has the capability to revolutionize a number of markets. As the street scrambles to figure out who’s part is where in the iPhone, if I’m correct about this, then the single biggest winner will be CY. The iPhone and the KE850 show some of what’s possible with the user interface and everyone else is going to need to do it as well. And it will not be limited to handsets!

  111. AAPL
    Stuttering here. looking for re-entry point.

  112. Phil,

    Is FXI still a good buy?

  113. “The Investor’s Business Daily’s “New America” column wrote that Visa’s plans to go public should take some of MasterCard Inc.’s (NYSE: MA) advantage in the stock market”

  114. kustomz, also looking at BA. Earnings, i believe, at end of month. Possible run-up towards earnings or wait and see approach? Stock right at 50day ma. Feb 90 calls?

  115. cy ’09 17.50 only about 4.10

  116. Phil, bought some RIMM -Feb 140 calls on Tuesday when the stock touched the 50MA…But the stock doesn’t do well today. Should I take my 30% and move on?

    Thanks in advance

  117. BA (I hope) held below $90 though expiration, if not, I flip my caller to Feb

    SNDK – it is good, it’s the right thing to do but that’s why we have leaps.

    YUM – we forgot about them… Still they have a big hit to announce at some point. $60 should be big resistance but will be very good mo if they break over it.

    RIMM very unimpressive today.

    PD running perfectly along $120

    Gotta love that INFY, just up and up, no stop outs!

  118. Oil falling to low of day

    S&P says COP reserve replacement was poor. They won’t be alone among the majors this year reporting both crappy reserve replacement and high finding and development costs.

  119. aapl looks droopy…for now anyway…

  120. CN, CHL
    rebounding a bit. Looking for CHL to break 43 and CN to break 50 before entering.

  121. Phil,

    Would it make any sense to buy Feb 55′s and sell Jan 55′s on UNH? Difference is about .90.

  122. lvs has made a come back.. wow

  123. GOOG

    +500 again!!
    Out of Jans. Value deteriorating faster than improving. Roll another 1/4 into Febs.

  124. INFY
    I actually added more on what I thought was Phil’s idea a few weeks back. This is why the XXX is great. Also hold CTSH

  125. INFY – not my play, just happy for others! Will probably hit $60 but too risky for me – this is an Apple-like play for me as I used to play them in the $40s and $55 just seems so high to me it will take me time to get comfortable.


    Cathy Minehan (Boston Fed – voting member – Dove) is resigning. It’s kind of like a new judge in the supreme court – might make the markets nervous. If it doesn’t – we are probably in for a huge rally!


    Oh – oil down .77 now see my list before for possible cheap reentries if you don’t have many.


    CY being positively flatlined into expiration. Makes me want the Feb $17.50s as well as the leaps!


    FXI – not as good as it was yesterday! Still, I didn’t buy it for $1 – I expect it to go back to $110 where we start selling calls against.


    RIMM – you should always take 30% and move on! Whenever I’m not sure about what to do, I sell some. Then I give it a while and see if it made me happy or sad. If happy, I sell more…

    If you are not willing to ride it back down for a test of $130 – take 30% and run soon though! They are weak on a strong day.

    My poor Jan $125 putter is down to .70 (from $5.10)

  126. out of FCX CALL at even, MISREAD….SORRY…I THNK..

  127. Pitch98 – It’s hard to say much.

    Also check out
    In particular look at the second page and you’ll see mockups of stuff from last November that we saw for real this week.

    Synaptics had similar stuff in their Onyx set (see ), INTC had a full-screen mockup before they sold the mobile processor business to MRVL. I vaguely recall seeing similar work from both Broadcom and Samsung.

    Like I said before, the hardware is essentially an assemblage of commodity parts. Any number of vendors could have provided lots of these parts. I can’t say with certainity who did and who didn’t win. Although I can sometimes say who didn’t (aka INTC earlier).

    TXN has some similar work as well plus some revolutionary technology bringing the digital (the computer and processing side) and the analog (the RF chain) together on a single chip; however, unfortunately they’re having problems in production.


  128. MSFT – Wow. An astounding day for MSFT. You may recall last Nov/Dec, I suggested Jan 08 $30s. And I still had some Jan 07 $30′s as well as Apr $30′s and $32.50′s that we also discussed back then as well.

    Phil – are we in orbit yet?


  129. INFY
    I guess I wasn’t here yet when the play was made. Risky to chase here.

  130. BA has been a long position, made a mistake of selling a large portion in the low 80′s. Charts show me its hugging the 50 day with great potential for breakout, its been in accumulation mode since Nov 06 and i agree with Phil, that price action is tied to options exp. If for some crazy reason it goes to 86 i have plenty of cash and will invest aggressively in BA.

    The markets heading higher are tied to oil which may seem over sold, but thats Zmanns speciality. technically i say its over sold and may bounce. Theres been strength in the NAZ this week and some stocks are over bought.


  131. INFY
    I bought the Feb 55 Calls and Puts and sold the Jan 55 Calls and Puts for a net cost of 1.2
    Planning to sell the Jan Puts and wait for it to come back a little before I sell the Jan Calls and the Feb Puts.

  132. INFY
    The stock was at 54 when I bought the spreads

  133. FFIV
    Stuck in molasses today. BillBigD, you still have yours? I’m still looking for it to break 80!

  134. RIMM falling!

  135. OIL below $53 at $52.70. On INFY, Phil mentioned it as a POSSIBLE trade. I jumped thinking he also did it
    Surely VTS must start coming down.

  136. kustomz, thanks for the BA commentary.
    Phil, thanks also for your take on stx – looks like it’s weakening. I’ll wait for breakout(if it happens!).


  138. LVS at $104 Shoot. Still hold FFIV. Just noticed the Yahoo Finance ad. Hope you make some $$ on that PHIL

  139. Casino stocks are momo right now…crazy!


  140. T finally moving a bit – don’t say you missed a chance to enter!


    Poor reserve replacement – yeah, funny how all that not looking for oil catches up with you at some point!


    All those China plays make FXI a no brainer – it’s way lagging


    UNH – Absolutely, that’s the best time, when you are pretty much in the money and you will scalp a premium (and protection) on the entry!


    LVS – damn that’s annoying! Can’t be helped with a great market.


    MSFT – I ended up with the April and July $30s – remember I sold the July $30s when they doubled on 1/3 to $2, regretted it immediately, and bought them back for $1.80 – so glad I did that!


    We are certainly making a good go of it! Meanwhile LMOL on Oil! Exxon is still a gift at +.25 for the day.

    SU on massive drugs at $70 – Feb $65 puts for $1.30 XXX

    VLO $47.50 puts for .35 for a craps roll XXX

    XLE is always a laugh and the Feb $53 puts are good at $1.10 XXX


  142. Why is UPS so depressed? Is there some rumor about an earnings disappointment from UPS?

  143. Phil,

    Take a look at HES. Unscathed in the oil patch yet not so cheap. Just trying to break 200 dma today. I’m taking puts if it’s remains near $47.50 through the coming oil pump and into the Nymex close.

  144. PBR Saw this press release. Feb 90Puts still ok?

    Brazil Brasfels Completes Petrobras P-52 Oil Rig – Report

    Jan 11, 2007 10:28:00 (ET)

    SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazilian oil-platform maker Brasfels last week concluded the construction of a 180,000-barrels-a-day P-52 oil rig that Brazil’s state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, aims to bring on stream by the end of the first quarter of 2007, the Estado newswire reported Thursday.

    The P-52 rig is slated to produce from the Roncador field in the oil-rich Campos Basin off the coast of Rio de Janeiro state. It will also have the capacity to compress 9.3 million cubic meters of natural gas a day, Estado said.

    In 2007, Petrobras expects to produce 1.979 million barrels per day, up from analysts’ estimates of about 1.8 million bpd in 2006.

    Including gas, Petrobras expects domestic output to average 2.23 million barrels of oil equivalent, or BOE, per day in 2007.

  145. LVS
    Wow! A head-fake this morning. I was afraid of a follow-through.

  146. NG now down 6%

  147. PHIL! DO U C AAPL 95.5 AS A Bull Trap ??

  148. LVS/WYNN

    Adding them to my watchlist. Phil, I think you’re idea is still right, although it might take couple of more days for the excitement to settle. Especially for WYNN, the hourly chart is still well-behaved. I’ll wait for the MACD to flatten out on top before buying the puts.

    PBR and oils
    Once again, great call! Next stop (soft stop) could be 90. Thanks, Phil!

  149. I’d buy $95.74 as a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the difference of the high and the low today. With $95.94 as the 50% retracement. Looks like AAPL found support at the first from 12:07 to 12:20 and then bounced off each at 12:40 and 13:12 respectively.

    If you believe in Fibonacci which I’m not sure that I do.

    On a minute by minute basis, I’d say it’s in an upward channel for the moment. If you believe in channels…which I’m not sure that I do.


  150. In my immediately previous post, please note that by “buy” I mean “accept”. ;-)


  151. We don’t chase stocks here – I am sure we’ll find something else to trade tomorrow if we miss one today!

    Oil’s down by my $52.50 target for the day.

    LVS – Victim of greed again – I should have taken my 33% profit off the table (kick, kick). This is some very unnatural movement must DD at $2 for the Feb $95s! Still just trying to get $1.50 out of the whole deal….

    AAPL – the only way it looks like a bull trap is on the 5 min chart! I just had this discussion with someone but you have to throw out all the data points from 11/27 (whent the rumors started) to MacWorld (when the rumors dissipated). Try to imagine the chart from there and you’ll see we just consolidated for a major bull run.

    UPS – depressed because brown is such a depressing color! I can’t figure this out but I love it as they are on my list of leap candidates so let ‘em die for now. I think FDX will come back first – still liking my July $120s, now $3.30 (down 25%).

    NYMEX roaches are screaming!!! They are trapped in February and can’t get out. They’ve only knocked off 25K open contracts and it cost them 5%, meanwhile March is now up to 261K (330K would be stretching it) so there’s lots of pain still to come.

    Oops – FDX popping now!

    HES — good catch Z, they’ve been held up on a technical as the 50 dma was racing up to cross the 200 to the upside and that ran right into the sellers and halted the drop.

    Technicals won’t beat funamentals this week so the Feb $45s for $1.25 make a nice play XXX

  152. Thanks Mr. R.
    Precisely, why I asked, AAPL has a habit to trace 23.8% down on Fib. scale on a second leg of bull run, and wanted to hear if it is possible….

  153. AUTO RELOAD: if you use firefox, go to and install the extension. Then any page that you are visiting, you can right-click and set a refresh interval (I refresh this page every 10 seconds).

    Newbie here. Enjoying the action so far. Thanks

  154. Ravi,

    You mentied below

    I bought the Feb 55 Calls and Puts and sold the Jan 55 Calls and Puts for a net cost of 1.2
    Planning to sell the Jan Puts and wait for it to come back a little before I sell the Jan Calls and the Feb Puts.

    >> My questions is since you have already sold Jan calls and puts, how can you sell Jan puts again??
    you are suppose to buy Jan puts right?? to close the trading… I am learing.. let me know

  155. ICE
    Is it ever going to melt!? Amazing!!

  156. oli….how do you get FFox to get back to the bottom of the page, I’ve tried both Fox and IE7 with no luck

  157. Fibonacci – oh that’s not a matter of belief, that’s pure statistics. While I don’t adhere to the strict numbers I do usually look for 20%, 33% and 50% retracements as that applies more directly to what ends up being programmed by people into trading systems.

    Then you have to allow for the psychological impact of certain numbers and, of course, reality (like ignoring a whole month of Apple shenanigans) but, conceptually, Fibonacci has a huge impact on any sort of growth cycle. That’s one of the reasons it’s pretty easy for me to hit the NYMEX on the head, huge samples that trade to the penny makes them much easier to chart.

    Here comes my LVS retracement, right on schedule!

    And speaking of statistics we throw out, here comes the 2pm oil pump – they just gotta have it all of a sudden!

  158. INFY

    Mano, you are right. I am buying back the Jan Puts and Calls I sold

  159. Phil, I like AZO…your opinion please, thanks.


  160. AAPL – Now beneath the channel. Which I’m still not sure that I believe in. ;-)


  161. Welcome Oli!


    Pshychologically, someone made a massive play for oil this morning and got taken out to the woodshed and spanked. Notice GS trailing off as oil faded – mark my words their fates are tied!

    MER Jan $95 puts are just .95 and I’m grabbing some as a craps play with a .80 stop XXX

  162. AAPL – I don’t know which way it’s going to go, but it’s about to go somewhere. Getting pinned between a Fib level at $96.14 and the 50 and 100 minute simple moving averages …

    Oops. Looks like down. Next Fib stop $95.94.

  163. Cool – thse charts seem to be working (at the bottom of the page) – once I figure out how to change them they’ll be great for tracking hot plays!

    AZO – It’s tricky because I don’t understand their mix (Toyota vs crappy cars) but they actually probably get more payola from the US companies than TM. I’d say it’s a good stock but there is some danger of a correction at $125 so go in with your eyes open!

    This oil pump is going terribly so far – $52.18…. How many of you guys thought Z and I were lunatics with that target last week?

  164. PBR and SU sweet. Both going Red

  165. TM
    TM may be bottoming, it has pulled back ten points, as it did in late November. Six month tecnicals have not turned yet, but for what it is worth, they have on FXI, presumably there are similiar factors working on both.
    Great pictures from China. That was a monastery at the end of the trail?

  166. Phil,

    Did you see GS’ quote on oil this morning? “We would see some weakness forthcoming,” probably “below $50,” but then oil prices are going to rebound to “the high 60s,” said Jim O’Neill, the head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “The underlying influence of high users, China, India, is becoming more important.”

    Despite oil down to $52.45 and gas giving back ground for the first time in 2 weeks ($0.40 at that!) the XOI is up and they’re desperately trying to hold the line at 1,100.

    The problem is it’s the Maginot Line and gas and oil prices are falling in behind there lines of stock defense!

  167. Phil, okay i finally listened to you. I bought the FEB XOM 70 puts and FEB PBR 90 puts….i’m making good 40% right now…..What are your predictions on this? Should we get out today and buy it again tomorrow or just hang onto it for now? Let me know.

  168. Wow, take a look at NYX. What just happened? My puts like it…

  169. Oli, aloha… thanks for the link

    I love that oil is crashing!!! I can finally take my Hummer out of storage!!Towing my boat with the mini was getting dangerous.

    CNBC should have mandatory drug testing for guests. And hosts for that matter.

    MET on a pullback should be considered.

  170. Don’t think RIMM 50MA is gonna hold this time…..Looks very weak today

  171. “NEW YORK, Jan 11 (Reuters) – The current El Nino weather anomaly that can create atmospheric havoc around the world should continue into the spring, extending unseasonably warm North American temperatures through March, the U.S. National Weather Service predicted on Thursday.”

    Lol – maybe it’ll get cold in April.


  173. Thanks JB.


  174. LVS now up 4

  175. Phil, I took profit COP Feb $65 puts, is it good to roll to $60? Thanks!



  177. Gee
    TXN I should have sold some feb calls against my april
    SNDK is working out just fine -glad I kept my caller

  178. Phil i agree MER nice put play, some would say the action today negates what most shorts were seeing 2 days ago. CAUTION.

  179. Phil, charts might be great AS LONG AS they dont slow down the refresh. Doesnt seem to be a problem. Anyone notice slower refresh rates?

  180. Random aside – So I understand CES is this week. Anything interesting in the world of consumer electronics? ;-)

    I’m not seeing a lot of “Wow!” articles outside of the show formerly known as MacWorld.


  181. OIL now $51.90 VTS will start going down right? HA HA

  182. Phil, Would be great to have the Valero chart down there also if it doesn’t interfere. I haven’t noticed any slowing. Thanks for the great oil put advice today!

  183. Okay, this is funny. And immediately after typing the above, the very next article that pops onto my RSS feed is an article by John Dvorak titled “CES was little more than breathalyzers and bad trade booths”.

    Okay, glad that question was cleared up.


  184. APPL – being sucked into the vortex of $95 into earnings – I doubt there is any escape today or tomorrow.

    Some of you guys have no idea how relaxing it is to watch this happen to a stock you sold calls against! I could literally care less what it does even though I have 3 open positions on it!


    Speaking of being sucked into a vortex – oil down $2.20 now!


    XOM PBR – Gosh you make it sound like I had to browbeat you into making 40% and you can’t take it anymore! ;-)

    40% in one day is a take the money and run situation. We can always reposition later and there’s more than one buy program out there, I’m taking most of today’s day trades off on any pullback as they have served their purpose already.

    Let’s say you make 40% just once a week on one out of 10 trades that you make. That’s 10% of your portfolio up 2,000% so you’ve doubled for the year even if you lose the entire other 90% – ALWAYS PROTECT 30%+ PROFITS AND YOU WILL WIN THIS GAME!


    Be careful, the NYX may have been a flush move to force stops.


    MET making up nicely for AIG’s crappy performance so far!


    RIMM – I figured on $130 when this whole thing started, still seems about right.


    El Nino – what if we have a mild summer on top of a warm winter??? It would be an energy sellers apocolypse!

    Dollar is cranking today – up 1 point against the yen.

    HBs are irrationally exuberant but we don’t want to get in their way.

  185. I guess the 2 PM siesta is over, both DIA and QQQQ seemed to have turned back up nicely.

    AAPL basing again around $96 and about to get pinned between the 10, 20, 50, and 100 minute moving averages and fib level ($95.94) one more time.


  186. No no Phil, i’ll take your recommended 40% over my 100% losers anyday. Thanks a bunch….

  187. In for LVS Feb 100 puts @ 4. Crazy volatility on this one…

  188. Phil….What’s a flush move….all red??

  189. Phil
    INTC April 22.5 doing great -thinking of sell ing the Feb 22.5 C as income + insurance

  190. Change of character in LVS? Now below 103.

  191. Phil,
    Good call on NYX, I panicked a little and took my profits from yesterday. Still long on other plays

  192. By the way, we should all thank Jared for all the hard work hes doing on putting a GOAX chart and what will be a Valero chart at the bottom of the page!

    He will be adding a list of all the major indexes along with a few things I can update for things we are watching on a daily basis…


    LVS – like I said yesterday, I DD and DD and DD again until ca-ching!

    It’s like there’s someone there who’s going: “$95 puts – oh you like those do you – well here, take them for $3″ and I say “OK” and he says “Oh a wiseguy huh, ok mr wiseguy – take them for $2″ me – “OK” then he goes “OK smarty pants – now I’m going to make you buy them for $1.50.” I say “OK” — we just see who gets tired of that game first….


    COP – sadly for them, yes the Feb $60s are a very reasonable play. (as a role here folks – we don’t enter a trade when the stock is already down 3% for the day).


    TXN – Nasdaq bargain of the day!


    I’ve noticed slower refresh but honestly, I only refresh like every 10 mins (and I have 8 other windows open) so it’s not bothering me and the charts save me a lot of looking, even though they’re delayed.


    LOL – last year CES was so lame my wife and I skipped it this year – and we LOVE Vegas!

  193. Strangle on goog for Jan options

    Buy Jan 480 call and Sell Jan 490 call for debit of 8points
    Buy Jan 520 put and sell jan 510 put for debit of 8 points

    Max profit = 4 points (Goog stays pinned between 490-510)
    Max loss = 6 points (Goog moves in either direction below 490 or above 510)
    Time = 5 trading days

  194. Phil, what play do you recommend for TXN??

  195. Phil,

    Are you still in PBR Feb 90Puts?

  196. Phil,
    WHen we all make a ton of cash from this site. We should have a gathering in Vegas with a bunch of steaks and wine.
    Shoot i missed the sell on PBR. Oh well let’s hope tomorrow.
    Did you buy more LVS Feb 95′s?

  197. Man those NYMEX guys just popped a blood vessel getting oil to print $52 at the close!

    Let’s all wave bu-bye to LVS at $105, oops – $104, oops – $103….

    Flush move – sorry, flushing out the stops. Lots of retailers (us) set stops with their brokers and, often, prior to a big move “THEY” give the stock a big push in the opposite direction in order to force people to dump shares or enter puts or whatever.

    This used to be a rarity but the advent of daytrading and live one-minute charts has made flushing a great, and very profitable, sport.

    Just so you guys know, I virtually never look at a one minute chart (VLO at inventory is an exception and when I’m trying to scalp a nickel on a buy or sell), rarely a 5 minute (also, only just as I’m about to buy or sell) and most often have a 10 min chart in Esignal which I flip with the hourlys which I compare to the dailys on


    INTC – I’d wait until tomorrow, perhaps take a little off the table if you’re worried but why cap gains if this is a multi-day breakout?

  198. Phil:

    Could you elaborate what you just said?

    Some of you guys have no idea how relaxing it is to watch this happen to a stock you sold calls against! I could literally care less what it does even though I have 3 open positions on it!

    I understand how time decay works but the powerful price movement in the past two days overcame the time decay effect. What do you expect to happen to your sold AAPL calls?

    Thx, Edgar

  199. Pitch78, no noticeable slowing at all, and I’m at the end of a residential DSL line. I just did some quickie metering by ripping out the code for the charts below and loading them by themselves, and the payload’s about an extra 6 to 8 Kbytes for the two chart graphic.

    That’s about the mass of 8 reinharden/AAPL posts. ;-) )

    Hmmm, now there’s another big graphic in the middle. Shouldn’t impact, with 300+ posts last few.

  200. T finally doing nicely here! Go baby go!

    LVS red…amazing.

    Thanks for the insight on the flush, Phil, this is good stuff that should be archived. Maybe a glossary of sorts? I imagine the “Trade School” logo flash up on the screen during CNBC’s Fast Money when Dylan Ratigan breaks in with his “insight”…except that your explanation makes sense.

  201. TXN – well I have the Jan $30s so what do I know…

    But I do like the Apr $27.50s that are just $2.80 (we bought them for $3.30 on Dec 11th and nothing has changed).

    The Apr $30s are nice too for $1.40 as they will make a quick .40 as TXN touches $30 and you can sell on a rejection. XXX


    PBR yes, they tend to gap down at the open so that’s the time to sell them (warning, they also gap up!).


    Fuel usage lowest level in 3 years – Bwah ha ha!!!

    CNBC reminds us about the “tensions in the middle east” and “Chinese demand” just seconds after they are forced to report on the usage stats…


    LVS – no I’m selling now, back to my original entry all bought and paid for!


  203. Anyone trading ISRG? Reversing back up? Thoughts?

  204. Phil, looking forward to the next CHL play. It recently tested the top of the previos trading range from December and the daily is looking fairly healthy.

  205. sakiko – Don’t think I didn’t see that. ;-)

    Did I already say “Wow!” about MSFT?


  206. Hmmm. All this discussion about the charts below. I don’t see any charts in Firefox 2.0; I see them in IE 7.0, but the only thing I use IE for is Windows Update, lol.

  207. ISRG nice bounce of the year lows, missed it this morning. Now pretty close to resistance at 92-93.

  208. Apple calls – nothing, I bought them to make a little money and I made a little money. I’m in on the Feb $80s for just .10 so every dime of the time difference except one is profit for me.

    The Feb $85s cost me $1.30 after the sale so I just watch with mild interest – as long as we’re over $82.50 I’m happy.

    As I was saying yesterday, you don’t go into these trades looking for a double but it’s a heck of a nice way to make 20-30% in a couple of weeks.


    I need to do a thing about money management. It’s like I was saying above – if you apportion your trades evenly (same $ amount for each trade) then if you can make 20% once a week on one of your 10 trades you will have a profit for the year.

    So my goal is to always make a 20% profit, try not to lose more than 20% on a bad trade and keep the rest a little better than even. When I make 30, 50, 100% I treat it as a bonus, consider myself lucky and move on – getting back to my regular strategy.

    Whatever I make at the end of the month, I reallocate to my other investments to maintain my balance of capital (with stocks being 20% in my case).


    “That’s about the mass of 8 reinharden/AAPL posts. ” ROFL!!!


    How about those DOW Mar $45s making a nice comeback (.03 basis on that one!)

  209. The charts show up under Firefox 1.5

  210. LOL Sakiko!

  211. Keep in mind though that you tested with only two charts, maybe three. Depends how many show up.

    Don’t discourage Rein, I love his posts. That was too funny though…

  212. ISRG – is that a Cramer thing? Very strange back from the dead action… Seems too much too soon.


    CHL – I was hoping for more of a pullback but lack of such encourages me to consider leaps since the close calls are so outrageous.


    MSFT – Wow is right as every dime of that stock is $100M in cap. (by 1/2 of that same ratio, XOM is “Ow”)


    I’ll tell Jared about Firefox. Maybe it’s filtering them like they are pop-up ads or something?

  213. reinharden, you bring us good, actionable stuff; don’t even be bothered about it. That was a Thank You!

  214. Oil puts BP XOM and all…. would you recomend keep overnight?

  215. GES and COH making all-time highs.

  216. Discourage Rein? Are you kidding?

    I want to co-author a book with him called “Phil and Reinharden Explain Tech” with him explaining tech and me making lost of snide comments – it’ll be great!

  217. reinharden…when you get a moment would you mind helping me with the RSS feed you mentioned this refresh and find the spot where I was is driving me nuts. Thanks

  218. Phil, what do you think about OIH, selling apr.150 call and buying 160 call.

  219. VTS having a big fight at 83.5.

  220. Okay, re charts in Firefox, I had to remove an adblock filter I had in place for “**”

  221. Phil, with Reinharden’s MSFT rally breaking out the nasdaq, do you expect the SPX to follow?

  222. CALENDAR SPREADS Phil when you get a moment, can you talk about the rationale of this strategy? Do you normally play out of money spreads to capture being right at the price, but not in timing without the risk of holding a long dated option?

  223. I was in no way discouraged. But it’s hard to mimic the two fingers point at eyes, two fingers point at sakiko in a blog format. ;-)

    And as a person who used to engage in arguments with people on Usenet about the bandwidth wasted by double spacing after punctuation (in that instance I was for double spaces and I did the data mining to prove that it didn’t matter), I really found it quite funny.

    Um, Frank, I’m afraid I don’t understand your request. Wait, I’ve got it. You’re talking about RSS on this site? I’m not using that. I’m not an expert in RSS (see, I admitted to not being expert at something…that’s progress, right?), but I know a little. What exactly are you doing and what problem are you having?


    PS: Obligatory AAPL content. Did I mention that the RAZR came to market at $499 with an exclusive to Cingular contract, *$799* without. And we’re whining about a $399 device plus $100/$200 worth of flash…

  224. Bought MGM’08 65 for $9.3 and thought i overpaid but now looks really good.


  225. so do think it wise to jump back on the lvs put for tm?

  226. XOI breaking into new LOD. Very close to taqking out yesterday’s low as well.

    Everybody in stock land is bettng that Opec will do something decisive tonight but traders obviously aren’t betting on anything but near and medium term fundamentals.

    It’s going to get harder and harder for GS and co to pump up stocks every day in the face of falling commodities and stocks that end lower the same day as the pump.Sooner or later, one of the big brokerage firms will try to be a hero and downgrade the sector.

  227. NVDA – If this is our Vista rally, NVDA might be worth a look since it’s down today and lots of new-to-Vista users are possibly going to find that they’re unhappy with their current video cards. So NVDA might sell a few more cards than they thought in calender Q1/2007.

    I’ve not been tracking that company, so I can’t speak to any fundamentals. But it’s odd that they’re not participating.

    INTC is working on adding higher end graphics functionality to their onboard graphics functionality; however, I don’t think that’s supposed to be out for awhile yet. Anybody been paying attention and know better?


  228. cvx jan puts – get rid of them now for ~25% or hold them a day more?
    FXI – is it done going down?
    ice – would taking some feb 135 puts playing a short term correct be a bad play?


  229. Phil, bought 10 BEAV Jan 25s. Been selling them one at a time in prices ranging from 2.40 to 3.30. Have seven left with a base of 1.05. Should I hold into expiration week, or take the best price I can get today or tomorrow (3.80 right now). Bought them on your recommendation to buy calls in Boeing beneficiaries.


  230. Wow! lots of wild swings while I stepped away! What’s with the graphs? Are they live “constant” feed? Hope they don’t slow down the page.

  231. Oil, don’t keep Jans overnight if you’ve got profits, flip to feb or march. There’s almost always a bounce when you can get back in on current month plays and, if not, we have the longer ones.

    XOM Maybe as it’s being stubborn today, might make a good gamble to hold overnight but you have to be prepared to get whapped. BP is safer as this oil print is so low it may shock Europe and Asia into another wave of selling. We are well on the way to testing $50.

    Remember – when in doubt – half off, which is pretty much what I will be doing with today’s plays.


    Some of these oil stocks are getting so low that I almost want to buy them…. almost….


    OIH – I generally hate those plays as you can get smoked but you’re right, the odds of OIH breaking $150 by April 20th are pretty astronomical but I hate hedgy plays and I think you will have to use up $8 of margin per contract and (unless you have so much money that I will have to start calling you uncle Ash) I’m sure there are better ways to tie up your account.

    To me, if I were going to do it, I would rather take the Jan ’08 $165/$170 spread for $1 as it would be easier to stop out of for little or no loss if things went badly for you. You could buy twice as many as the spread is half.


    Firefox block – see, I’ve still got it – I used to analyze code back when we had to keep it under 64Kb!


    Rally – we need to confirm these breakouts but we’re very close to escape velocity here


    Calendar spreads – I am becomming concerned that people think that these are general strategies that can be applied to any posiiton, that is not the case at all. Any stock at any time can be a good or bad candidate and you can never force them. That’s why I wanted to wait on Google – it only just became a good idea this morning to take the $500/510 spread.

    It would take me a book to really explain it but we’ll try to go one position at a time.


    LVS – nope, got to wait for tomorrow now – these buyers are nuts!

  232. I noticed that SAP warned earlier today. I personally think that ORCL has continued to take share from SAP; however, it could be an industry wide problem, not just a SAP problem.


  233. richard….SELL with that kind of Pie

  234. PBR in the red again!

  235. Rein,

    NVDA was up big yesterday. Maybe just consolidating today.

  236. With AAPL handing back only a small bit of the last two days on reasonable volume, and MSFT likely closing near its highs on strong volume, I’m thinking that I might enjoy tomorrow.

    Especially since I don’t have to worry about what Bush is going to say tonight…

    Although I was a bit disappointed in the SOX and BKX today. BKX came back, but the SOX need to break the downtrend. Of course, CES was disappointing which doesn’t help the SOX.

    Still, tomorrow should be interesting.


  237. PBR
    Trying to pick up more puts.

    Can we get 500+ close?

  238. NVDA – Like I said, I don’t track, but they’re still under where they were 5 days ago. Looks like I’ll have to go read about what’s going on there tonight. I cheated and sent a note to a couple of gamer friends of mine. Be interesting to see what they have to say.


    PS: Back in Q4/2006, they said that AMD might not sell a single high-end gaming system in 2007. So they’ve no problem being opinionated. ;-)

  239. I am frustrated, since I picked to short XOM rather than COP. It has been holding up superbly while most other oil stock have signficantly turned lower. Wait is the name of the game.

  240. I was out all day — just got back. Glad to see EBAY come back from the dead. Why is XOM flat with such a huge drop in oil prices?


    Oh well, since the market is closed . . . here is the most important news of the day:

    DAVID BECKHAM signs with MLS’ Los Angeles Galaxy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    As a soccer maniac and NY Red Bulls season ticket holder, this is a the best news tfor me his year. This will change the face of soccer in the US.


    It’s not often that Drudge leads with 6 soccer-related links

  241. Good to hear that Bechham sissy moves to the US :-)

  242. NVDA Personally I don’t think the Vista effect will happen right away with video cards. It takes time for people to get used to a new interface and there is always the option of running it in classic mode. Once people catch on though, there could be a big wave of upgrading and an even bigger wave of upgrading the minimum required gpu power on a regular machine. This could take up to a year though.
    Good point though, it could happen faster. I have Vista but haven’t had time to install it. It will be interesting to see how my barely-decent video cards here at the office take to it.

  243. Wow, QLGC got trashed the last few days, might be interesting if it holds 20.

  244. David Beckham? Hmm. I don’t understand the big deal. Some assumedly NFL Europe player is signing up to play what I can only guess is indoor football in Los Angeles? ;-)


    Seriously, why, aside from wanting to have a movie career, would he want to do that? I thought he was serious about soccer. Now, I could see moving to Brazil and playing with a club team out of “love for the game”. But Los Angeles? In the United States? Soccer?

    Might as well sign up as a field goal kicker…


  245. reinharden or anyone else.. I’ll try to say it this way what is the best, only or whatever way to get to the last current comment. I won’t bother to post for less confusion what I tried but the refreshing and finding the spot is driving me up a wall. I could use IE7. FireFox or whatever else. Thanks anyone

  246. Yet another iPhone article:
    I am thinking that accelerometer needs to be hacked for scrolling. That would be way cool.

  247. I bailed on 1/2 of PBR feb 90′s puts. Took the 27% profit.

  248. MSFT – WOW! Nice move into the close.

    $30.70 +$1.04 (+3.51%)

    Nothing like adding $10 billion in market cap in one day. I guess Gates and company thought they needed to outdo Jobs and company’s *two* day move.

    Now we just need to get the rest of the market to play along.

    Although it’s not going to be CAMP leading the cheer. CAMP fall down, go boom. Initial numbers are confusing.


  249. “Sooner or later, one of the big brokerage firms will try to be a hero and downgrade the sector.”

    Think about how sick it is that you have to make a comment like that! If Steve Jobs sneezes, 3 brokers downgrade Apple 30 seconds later but the price of oil drops $10 in 10 days and someone has to be a “hero” to downgrade the sector!


    NVDA is participating – they pulled out of a power dive on the way to $29 – I hate chasing stocks up 10% in 2 days, especially when they should have been down 10%…


    CVX – a little late but, like I said before:

    If you are in for $1 and it goes to $1.25 and you take half off – you have effectively reduced your basis on your capital at risk to .75 – a .50 margin. You are now free to make newer and better decisions with your cash (see the Microwave Oven Theory).

    Tomorrow, if the stock jumps up and the call falls to .75 – you can either get out even or, perhaps, take 75% of your spare cash and buy more puts. This is a choice you would not feel you had if you were still in for $1 and had just lost 25%.

    If it drops back to $1 – you can decide enough is enough and get out with a .25 profit (a 12% profit on your original investment).

    If it goes up .25 to $1.50 and you like the momentum, you can get back in for more, ladder down the position to a pre-roll or just let your profits ride as it’s all free money now. Even if you regret taking half off the table and jump back in at $1.50, your total basis is just $1.13 with a .37 profit, still better than today when you took half off to be safe.

    Isn’t that worth the price for all those additional choices?


    FXI – If we’re lucky, we’ll get a nice pop overnight in Asia but I expected that yesterday too…


    ICE – you can’t bet against the exchanges until this commodity thing wipes out, probably next week but CME gave a very toppy signal today.


    BEAV – you did a lot better than I did! I sold Aprils against mine and got smoked (“only” 150% profit, I shouldn’t complain).

    I think you have to look at risk vs expectations – you’re up 300%, why don’t you just roll to the Feb $30s for $1, then you won’t feel like you’re missing anything and you take $3 off the table, preserving at least 200% profit. You reallly need to think about rolling to another bracket as soon as you go in the money as your risk begins to outweigh the potential rewards.


    I think the graphs are delayed but I just like them for quick reference – they seem to cause a 3 second load but they save me from hundreds of seconds of looking at stuff so I’m kind of in favor of them at the moment…

  250. Frank, I’m super lazy, I refresh, hit page end, and page up until I get to where I was.

    I understand that they were playing with the RSS feed for comments; however, I don’t know whether or not it’s actually working. And I wouldn’t really enjoy getting 200+ new entities in my RSS feed. Unless I *only* read the page that way, I’d end up reading some twice.

    But RSS might work for some people for that…


  251. MUR just preannounced 4Q of $0.45-$0.50. Consensus was $0.65. ROFLMAO! This won’t be the last Major, mini-major, E&P, or refiner to warn/miss!

  252. MUR – got bad headline. Even worse than thought. $0.40-$0.45 not .40-.50. Getting thrashed AH

  253. AAPL – Yet another possible short-term AAPL thesis.

    As we all know, earnings are Wednesday, January 17, after the bell.

    And as I was reminded earlier today, the market is closed Monday, January 15.

    “Normal” people are going to read all about the nifty, gee wheeze, earth-changing, “nothing is the same anymore”, “more important than the original Apple, the Macintosh, and the iPod combined” mobile internet connectivity device/iPod/world’s greatest phone over the weekend.

    How many of them are going to place market buy orders in their brokerage account over the weekend?

    “Abnormal” people (aka us) may well start building a position in AAPL for their earnings announcement. Which would help as well.

    Friday afternoon might therefore be a good time to think about whether there’s any profit to be had from this scenario.

    So maybe I’ll setup my pre-earnings dice roll early.


  254. CAMP was expecting $0.06, reporting $0.04…or maybe $0.08 if you back enough stuff out.

    Currently down 7+% in after hours trading.

    CAMP, by the by, doesn’t make much of any importance. Although they’re expecting to start to have success in the HDTV arena in their fiscal 2008 (which apparently starts in April, 2007). Although I think that’s mostly in conjunction with DirectTV and similar such stuff. Not a company that I follow, but one that I glance at when they report.


  255. reinharden… Thanks I thought you had mentioned an RSS version I am doing the same as you are, now that you mentioned it. I just thought there was a better way instead of going through all that. It just feels like alot to do on top of trying to keep a half dozen screens in check and be updated too.

    Oh well , thanks anyway.


  256. More MUR – dryhole at sizable test in Malaysia. Just bad luck.

    --R&M margins down relative to 3Q – this is something all majors and refiners will announce over next week or so.

    —Previous EPS guidance was $0.40 to $0.60 back in October. Now $0.40 to $0.45

    Production was anticipated to 94,000 boepd… now it’s 92,000 – this is very bad given their high PE multiple. It just got higher!!!

  257. ZMANN,
    Thanks for the oil news those puts we bought should be nice plays tomorrow

  258. Frank, I did mentioned that I use RSS. But it’s for my news feeds. That way the circa 100 news, rumors, tech review, etc sites that I track come to my attention quickly rather than my having to dig through them to see if there’s anything new.

    But, I can read the RSS stuff at my leisure, days later if I’m so inclined. Whereas with Phil’s Stock World, I mostly want it to be in real-time. Or I read all the comments later. So getting each comment via RSS would just annoy me. ;-)

    But everyone’s mileage may vary.


  259. ORCL got slammed at the close! Stopped me out of Mar $17s but I didn’t have a stop on the $18s as they were a pre-roll so I’m taking a hit there.

    Big buying opportunity I think as Software was tops on the list of all IT budgets for 2007, eveyone is waiting for Vista and then there will be a buying frenzy.


    SOX – now that was a 33% retracement! Good and healthy set up for tomorrow!


    Goog – nope – no $500 close…


    Pantari – I would rather have 5 contracts on 5 stocks in a sector than 25 on one – any stock at any time can smoke you – no matter what. Also, if 3 of 5 plays go down and 2 disappoint, you can always take the more even one off the table and DD on the one that hurt you the most (assuming the rationale is still there).


    XOM is everybody’s “safety stock” for the sector. They are a “great” company (assuming you have no morals) and pay a nice dividend and are part of every index on the planet so you are very likely buying XOM stock as we speak through one of your diversified fund holdings. With the Dow up 70 points, a nice chunk of fund flow goes to XOM, who are about 4% of the Dow.

    So they will drop like a rock on flat market days but should hold up pretty well in a “rising tide” situation since they are about the biggest boat in the harbor.


    Beckham – as a former Cosmos ticket holder – I must say I have heard that before but I do hope it works this time. It would be nice if America could participate in a nice game with the rest of the planet.


    Frank, after you make a comment – if you hit F5, it doesn’t bring you back to the bottom?


    I’m shocked that Apple thinks 40 gig is adequate for a dvr – I have 2 300 gig tivos (hacked) in the living room and if I couln’t open the Apple TV box up I wouldn’t go near it.


    CAMP is no industry indicator and we new they were going to have a terrible quarter – in truth, those earnings were BTE if you eliminate the silly GAAP number (and why not, no one else seems to follow them).

    I’d buy $7.50 calls for Feb if they opened down here but they won’t. That’s sad because you could have bought the Febs today for $1.05 and sold the Jans for .95 – just not a stock I usually follow but what a no-brainer that would have been!

  260. Beckham Reports are 5 years $250 million. And we thought A-rod is overpaid

  261. MUR – Great call on them Z – what a disaster this is shaping up to be. And next Q will be much worse – record low demand, record costs, democrats making them pay their taxes….

    92Kbd? Yet another cartel member identified. Let’s get Pelosi on that – how come OPEC orders a cutback and all the US oil companies comply?


    We’re working with Apple to stream comments directly into your mind with IBrain – they will drill a small hole in your head and wire it up right to your cortex at a local Apple service hospital – Ram upgrades are expensive but very worth it, especially with the “Dull people’s names and dates that are important to your wife” database software…

  262. See I’m training my daughter just right, she’s a Chinese-speaking, soccer player who’s a junior computer geek (she’s tech support for the first grade!)

  263. NY Cosmos—Cool man our Johan Neeskens was playing there…

  264. Phil: “Builders – too tricky to play.”

    I totally agree. If they somehow melt up to new recent highs, I will be tempted to buy Jan-08 puts on some.

    Watching closely.

  265. Wow – Phil is a soccer fan. Brilliant!

    Phil, you might wanna come out to a few NY RedBulls games next season.

    MLS will never be the same. Ronaldo may be on his way to NY as well, so it will be an exciting season.


    BBC lays out the Beckham deal:

    “”Golden Balls” – as he has been nicknamed by the tabloids – may not have a golden share but he will make money from LA Galaxy, possibly as much as $10m (£5.14m) a year in profits.

    Insiders I have spoken to have painted a fascinating picture of the astonishing $250m (£128m), five-year deal he has signed with the Los Angeles team.

    Indeed Beckham could earn more than $250m, perhaps as much as $275m, over the period of his contract.

    I understand his yearly income from next season, when he leaves Spain for America, will be:

    An annual salary of $10m

    His existing sponsorship contracts with his four sponsors – Motorola, Pepsi, Gillette and Volkswagen – are estimated to be worth $25m

    His merchandising shirt sales will bring in $10m

    His share of the club profits: $10m
    That adds up to $55m. Multiply it by five and you get well over $275m.”

  266. AAPL – The question is how does the Apple TV interact with the AirPort Extreme Base Station. Especially if you take advantage of the “Airport Disk” (USB2 external disk drive plugged into the Base Station).

    Actually, there’s a lot of questions surrounding that disk that could enable some fascinating functionality.

    First, in MacOS X 10.5 (not yet released), there is likely support for the ZFS filesytem. One unique attribute of this filesystem is that it enables, among other things, what is essentially block level journaling. So, when you change a 1 gigabyte file, it can notice that the changes were limited to this one 4k block. If you were doing remote disk mirroring, rather than shove the 1 gigabyte across the network, it could instead shove the one 4k block across the network. Nice, no?

    Now, theoretically, you could tie this directly into TimeTravel (aka the 10.5 “backup” system) that allows you to travel back in time to various versions of your files. Rather than storing that one gigabyte file once an hour, you could instead store just the diffs from hour to hour (likely with some snapshots if the diffs got too large). Okay, so what?

    Well, if you plunk a 750 GB drive into the Airport Extreme and enable it as an Airport Drive, can I now use that as my TimeTravel backup location? And would it work like this? That would be wonderful for SOHO and prosumer applications. And when my machine crashed or was stolen, I wouldn’t care because I’d have my data backed up at home.

    Apple was also playing around with “portable homes” for users. So rather than keeping your home directory on your local machine, you could keep it on a remote volume. Not that useful with 11 megabit wireless, but potentially radically useful with 200 megabit 802.11n connections.

    One attribute of this in early development (back in the 10.4 days, so this is already public thus I’m spilling no secrets) was that you could have a portable home directory that was mostly maintained in both locations. When you logged into/out of your machine, it’d sync your home directory to/from the current machine to the server hosting it. Thus you had some amount of redundancy. This turned out to be hard to manage…but with another two years of development, it could be quite useful now.

    Anyway..if I keep my home directory on my Airport Drive and all of my media on that drive…well…can my Apple TV directly access all of that even when every computer in the house is turned off? That’d be nice.

    That having been said. The Apple TV has an USB2 interface on it. Frankly, I’ll be annoyed if it’s disabled and doesn’t allow me to hook up a mass storage device directly. But knowing Mr. Jobs, I may well be annoyed.

    Anyhow, just pontificating.

    Sadly, I’ll not know until someone goes and checks it out themselves since, believe it or not, I don’t actually have a TV most of the time. ;-) I mostly live with my long-term girlfriend in Washington, DC, (no TV) and I have a place over in Virginia (TV). So, if I want to watch TV, I’ve got to go back to Virginia (although when I figure CNBC will matter, I treat the Virginia abode as my office and go there to monitor the markets/trade). More than you all needed to know…


    PS: Previously, the Airport Extreme Base Station only allowed you to host a USB printer via its USB interface.

    PPS: Resisting the long’sh post on the ins and outs of cell phones, 2.5G, 3G, etc, etc, etc. Just remember to laugh everytime you see anyone writing “The iPhone should have just been a Skype/VoIP phone. Who needs a carrier?” ’cause if you don’t have a data connection coming from somewhere, you can’t connect to anywhere. And WiFi isn’t really going to cut it as the only connection type in a cell phone. Nor will WiMax until someone actually builds a network.

  267. AAPL – One more thing. So far as I can tell, Apple TV is *NOT* a DVR. Which is also somewhat of an annoyance. Although, in truth, I understand the thinking. Just not sure that I agree with it.


  268. Cramer – NYBOT shareholders about to sell ICE shares – possibly a brilliant short play! If he’s right about this it will make up for A LOT!

  269. reinharden… by any chance does it come in black


    PS thanks for answering earlier

    Phil … no F5 brings don’t do anything for me on the page

  270. Jeez I just reread my post, forget spell check, I need speak English check!

  271. ICE: Is there some type of a lockup of something? I missed what cramer said.

  272. SPWR is up 15% in the last two days. Why, especially when oil is down big?

  273. Missed the action here today; and likely will tomorrow. Which is good b/c whatever I am doing or not doing lately is exactly wrong. Except the Ebay trade looks like it will work out well; and my RIMM puts.
    Soccer and soccer. Maybe most of you are too young, but I remember the days of Pele, Chinaglia and Beckenbauer playing for the Cosmos and soccer sellouts at the Meadowlands when I was a kid. I don’t follow soccer much except for the World Cup. My guess is Beckham may be on the downhill side of his career; so milking it in the USA seems like a good idea.

  274. Cap you forgot Carlos Alberto and Bogie, if Cosmos couldn’t keep soccer here it never will.

  275. No I haven’t seen it but thanks, I remember as a kid seeing Chinaglia play for Lazio in Italy. It was kinda funny he was already old news there, same with all the others that played.
    It was great though, I lived about 15 min from Giants Stadium in Hoboken, NJ, come game day 2 hours!

  276. ICE shares

    IntercontinentalExchange , the leading electronic energy marketplace, today announced that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire the New York Board of Trade(R) (NYBOT(R)), the world’s leading soft commodity exchange, for consideration of approximately $1 billion. The transaction consideration will comprise 10.297 million shares of ICE common stock and $400 million in cash. Upon consummation, NYBOT will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICE.

    Under terms of the merger agreement, NYBOT, a member-owned, not-for-profit entity in New York, would be merged into a Delaware for-profit corporation and become a subsidiary of ICE. ICE will finance the cash portion of the merger consideration with cash on hand and borrowings. The number of shares of ICE common stock expected to be issued pursuant to the merger agreement will represent approximately 15% of the issued and outstanding share capital of ICE following the consummation of the merger.

    The transaction is subject to approval by members of NYBOT, the receipt of required government approvals, the expiration of the applicable Hart-Scott- Rodino waiting period and receipt of all required Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approvals. Two directors from the current NYBOT board will join the ICE board.

    NYBOT members and member firms must retain 30% of the ICE stock received for each seat to remain a member with floor trading rights, and to maintain privileges and fee discounts.

    So it looks like 70% of 10 million shares will be available for trading in mid January.

  277. Uh oh did we go bearish on LAMR – Doh! Craaaaaaaaaaaaammmmmmmmerrrrrrrggggggggggggghhhhh!

    Cramer believes Lamar (LAMR – commentary – Cramer’s Take – Rating) is a “fabulous acquisition target,” which understands that it is more profitable and efficient to have digital signs.

    As Lamar is on track to increase its billboard count and there are high barriers to enter this market, Cramer said Lamar should profit.

    “The local, state and federal governments have decided CBS (CBS – commentary – Cramer’s Take – Rating), Clear Channel (CCO – commentary – Cramer’s Take – Rating) and Lamar should own 85% of this market,” he said.

    Moreover, as French company JC Decaux has allegedly expressed interest in buying Clear Channel, Cramer believes there should be a better company that wants to buy Lamar.
    The bottom line is Lamar’s headed higher, and he doesn’t see much downside to owning it, he said. Plus, he wouldn’t be surprised if it gets bought out.

    “JC Decaux wants Clear Channel because of its billboard division, and Lamar is the pure play in this sector” and is “going digital faster than any other company,” Cramer said.

  278. GOOG
    500+ close: does AH count? =) Nevertheless, should go higher tomorrow and could re-test 513 before earnings.

    Speaking Chinese
    My girlfriend finds this site:

    Very helpful.

    @ 95, I’m back in, although might have to take 95.5 or so. When IBrain is available, maybe people can download Chinese lessons, or KungFu, like in the Matrix!

    N225 is up in the morning, like you had suggested. I think I’ll test the water tomorrow.

    Could be a great opportunity. Thanks for the info Cris and Phil!

  279. AMD – Falls down, goes boom.

    “Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices said late Thursday that it fourth-quarter sales, excluding ATI-related segments, would rise 3% sequentially from $1.33 billion, or roughly $1.37 billion, in the previous quarter, short of analysts’ estimates.

    Consensus was for $1.44 billion in sales, implying 8.2% sequential growth, with 33 cents EPS.”

    Other articles claim that INTC cleared inventory of the previous generation of the Core Duo and forced AMD’s prices lower.

    I still contend that INTC also likely took share.


  280. is this good news for INTC?

  281. Earnings Link:
    A number of people have been asking about when earnings for certain stocks were. Also provides the streets’ EPA estimtes and links to conference calls.

  282. Page Refresh: I am using Firefox on Windows XP Prof and when I hit the refresh key while in comments it refreshes and takes me right back to the comment I was reading. I haven’t been able to get the refresh to happen automatically but that’s ok.

  283. OPEC to consider emergency meeting on oil prices

    Ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will consider an emergency meeting to discuss how to stop the latest slide in crude-oil prices, according to a media report Thursday.

  284. This also works on my Apple Safari browser OSX 10.3.9

  285. BA downgraded by UBS

    AMD – Falls down, goes boom
    INTC has high pain thresholds and can endure. Makes you question what AMD had to say during analyst day.

    SNDK patent dispute, i did some research this evening regarding a patent, you have no idea how hard it is to get a patent these day. Seems like every and anything you can dream up is patentable. Lets say you use a server for incoming information and want to send this information in a specific way to a cell phone you cant unless you license the patent, ridiculous things have gotten out of hand. No technology was created just an idea and the way you use this technology was patented..CRAZY!!

    MOT preparing for war

  286. Soccer – Cap’s right, we are now to soccer what Japan is to baseball – it’s where old players go to milk the end of their career. That’s fine though, anything to boost national awareness is a good thing.

    That’s true, you couldn’t have tried harder than the cosmos to field a world class team. I have a plan to put US Soccer on the Map:

    Put George Steinbrener on the job, steal all the best players from teams all over the world, buy an English stadium (we’d have to base out of Europe at first) or maybe a whole team and rename them the NY Yankees then kick everyone’s ass. Move back to NY after winning a couple of cups and taunt the Europeans until they have to start scheduling games over here.


    ICE – that’s not such a big deal then… they move 3M shares a day and we’re talking about 10M total shares. Even if they dump them it’s unlikely to make a huge difference. I think ICE is overpriced for other reasons but this doens’t really qualify…


    We went bearish on LAMR BECAUSE of Cramer. That company does not and will not make enough money to justify this cap. Yes they are growing fast – their p/e will drop from 175 now all the way down to 100 next year! Whoa – let’s back up the truck and do a ‘mon back on a stock that has a NTA (net tangible assets) of -$550M and $1.8Bn in debt with no cash ($7M) and only $171M in recieivables on $1bn in revenues that generate a whopping 50M (maybe) in profits this year.

    How much would you pay for this dream company? Cramer says $7Bn is too cheap! He says someone is going to swoop in and snap this value play up because nothing says lovin’ like piling an additional $7Bn in debt on top of the $1.8Bn existing where the interst on $8.8Bn in debt at 6% would be more money than this company has ever made or is likely to make in the next 5 years. Boo Yah!

  287. Ut ohhh, I bought ICE Feb $125 calls 2 days ago for $9 and meant to take profits today and totally forgot about it. I like when Cramer says “buy buy buy” to the one I own but when it goes “sell sell sell” it sure don’t feel good. I think part of the reason I didn’t take my gain is due to my greed which I need to fix.


  288. LOL Phil. Tell us how you really feel about Cramer and LAMR……

  289. Chinesepod – very cool!

    Patent system – crap!

  290. I am getting very pissed at Cramer lately and I used to be a huge fan. He made stocks fun and interesting for people, exposed a lot of nonsense and taught some good lessons – all great stuff but it made him very powerful (deservedly) but now he wields that power irresponsibly and he crushes the very people he supposedly set out to help.

    It is beyond irresponsible of him to tell people to buy certain stocks and Lamar is an egregious example of that, especially the way he gives absolutely no caveats to the glowing recommendation at all.

    Anyway, that one just pissed me off, so much so that I’m posting it too…

  291. Why does every cell phone out there look ugly and clumsy now? I mean, have you seen the N95 and the HP hw69xx? yuk
    Thanks a lot Steve, someone needed a slap upside the head! :)

  292. AMD – Oddly, my vague recollection of the reports out of the last analyst day that I remember was how they were going to grow share and margin. Which I believe I said was bogus at the time.

    They might grow one, but it’s hart to grow both without a compelling product (or without the other guy not being able to produce enough supply).

    Last Christmas (2005), INTC got spanked when they couldn’t produce enough laptop motherboard chipsets. Which meant that all their shiny CPUs sat on shelves. Believe you me, there was a thorough reexamination of the entire supply chain after that.

    Oh, by the by, INTC is already sampling new parts at 45 nanometers already and is apparently thinking about moving that transition up by as much as 6 months (perhaps calendar Q3 2007). That’ll really hurt AMD who is in the process of moving to 65 nanometers and only started shipping 65 nm parts last month.

    I think INTC is one of the most undervalued large cap stocks available versus its probable prospects over the next 12 to 24 months (barring an economic collapse). Besides, anytime you start off having been the worse performing DOW stock the previous year, you’ve at least got that going for you the next year. ;-)


  293. Just one more comment to ensure that we get at least 294 on both Wednesday and Thursday. ;-)

    I got a very interesting reply to my NVDA question, I’m awaiting permission to share it.

    Summary: Too hard to tell on NVDA, buy INTC instead. ;-)


  294. Thanks Rein. Been looking at the INTCs. Might do that tomorrow! 295

  295. Phil, is the portfolio updated everyday? Thanks.


  296. ISRG

    This stock came up when I ran a screen for stocks that have moved down from the previous day’s close at least $.50 90% of the time in the past month. It has an inflated P/E, overpriced near term options, and pending litigation. Bullish put spread (calendar or vertical)? Lemme know your thoughts. Thanks! -Eric

  297. I own MGM Jan 08 $65 as of today…Phil, may I have your thoughts on today’s move? Maybe something is brewing there? Thanks.


  298. NVDA (and INTC) – My friend’s response follows (note: I hired him straight out of high school into Lucent and worked with him several times since over the last decade…he thus thinks a bit like me):


    “well NVDA has always been a hard call and it is even more so now.

    Here are some factors that I think are in play:

    1. When will ATI ship DirectXX compatible card? It has been delayed
    another month or so. This is potentially important.
    2. When will NVDA ship mainstream DirectXX? This is a killer blow
    in the desktop arena which will likely drive NVDA revenue up.
    3. Can Sony ship more PS3s? So far they’ve had issues and NVDA is
    providing graphics for it. ATI is inside Xbox and WII.

    Nvidia continues to struggle with mobile graphics parts. (see Dell and HP laptop lineup).
    This must change for them to grow the revenues.

    All in all NVDA has a decent chance to grow profits handsomely with Windows Vista BUT
    the utter failure of PS3 and relative weakness of PortalPlayer lineup is likely to
    affect them on the revenue side. So I’d predict weaker revenue growth but pretty
    good profits due to higher margin sales in desktops. We need to watch out for the new
    lineups of laptops and desktops from Dell and HP to see who is perceived to be the
    winner in Windows Vista video sweepstakes.

    I still think that INTC is likely to far outpace any other large cap on NASDAQ this year.
    INTC @ $30 by the end of the year would not surprise me at all.
    AMD warned earlier today, apparently they did not sell any high-end gaming chips
    last quarter (they warned due to lower average selling prices).
    I am looking for the opporsite news form Intel.
    Analysts are oblivious to this. They all think that AMD ASPs will come back
    in Q1 but if anything they will be lower. Anandtech just reviewed the lowest-end
    Core2 DUO and they are calling it “Every generation a ridiculously overclockable
    bargain chip is born, and the Core 2 Duo E4300 is just that chip”.
    Say Bye-Bye to any enthusiast sales AMD ohh and also to any volume sales
    to Dell, HP or anyone else who does not want to get low Windows Vista “experience”
    points. (this is integrated benchmarking tool in Vista).

    So to conclude: NVDA is too risky. May they’ll be OK but may be not largely due to absence
    of PS3 sales. It is hard to say because they are not saying what they were expecting from PS3
    but I’d imagine they were expecting something better than ~600,000 sold.

    Buy INTC on every dip. And sell AAPL they are not going any higher. ohh wait they just did.. :)

    By the by, the AAPL thing is just to needle me. ;-)


  299. GLW looking healthy, I like that last candle, should be good for at least one more (50ema just above 20), or even up to 21 with a good market.

  300. The rich capitalists from Hong Kong building strength and influence in China, will we see an American educated Chinese person as leader of China someday? Who knows? Bonds are a good start though. This may just be a plot by the communist Chinese to trap greedy capitalists with their hand in the cookie jar, and show the US how they deal with white collar criminals.

  301. Phil

    It might be very late for and not sure you will see in the morning anyway.

    I agree with your thesis on LAMR … earning peanuts on big revenue and i took put (with delay). But i read this interesting article, which can explain valution of LAMR.

    If this is true and Google start monetizing their real estate, that will bring in lot of efficiencies and change the dynamics. Worst case scenario (from put holder perspective) – GOOG buys them, as they bought a radio company.

  302. Comments on INTC
    Thanks to notable calls

    ThinkEquity’s Eric Ross is out with a major intraday call saying they heard from sources at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) and elsewhere that Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) could see December-quarter revenues nearer to the low end of its range ($9.1b) rather than the midpoint of $9.4b or Consensus of $9.45b. Even with stronger gross margins, they still do not see EPS reaching above $0.23 vs. $0.25 for Consensus, without some financial engineering. While they would not short Intel into the quarter due to this (or change rating), it is possible for the shares to fall a bit.

    Firm now believes December-quarter revenues are likely to be $9.25b (firm’s new number) or lower. Consensus is $9.45b and $0.25 for the December quarter. These are sources both inside the company and in the electronics supply chain. They actually heard numbers as low as $9.10b for Intel’s December quarter from their sources.

    For high-end products, the quarter was very back-end loaded. They heard that high-end product such as Conroe (Core 2 Duo) for desktop saw weak October and November sales. Demand picked up sharply in December. Firm believes this is consistent with the build for Vista they have heard elsewhere, but are not certain this reflected real demand.

    For low-end products, demand fell in December. Low-end demand for Intel appeared to have dried up in December after a strong October and November. This is consistent with what they have heard from other suppliers in the channel.

    Mr. Ross believes Intel is winning back some higher-profile PC models from Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD), but due to its aggressive sales and pricing. He expects with these share losses by AMD (coming), we could see another aggressive pricing competition year.

  303. Way to ruin the parade kustomz — : – )

  304. In the case of LAMR, I think a useful question to ask is “why are they in business”, or even “still in bussiness”. Revenues and all that stuff are nice, but if they have a good idea, it could be big if it catches on. I definitely think digital billboards are a necessity, not a luxury. There are enough data out there to figure out who’s driving on what road at what time and how much money they have and what they are likely to spend it on. That data can be used to generate a dynamic advertising campaign that changes as often as needed. (not the adds, the add placement) E.g. adds for morning rush hour, for evening on the way downtown to the ball game, etc. and even (gasp!) sunday morning on the way to church! :)
    Anyway, I don’t know what LAMR does exactly, but this is what I would do, and I know Google could probably use this or something it.

  305. Portfolio – no it’s not – I usually do it a couple of times a week but there are now 200 entries and it’s an absolute nightmare to maintaiin. We are working on a solution but it will be into next month I think.


    ISRG – there was some insane, overdone looking pump today and I still dont’ see a reason. If I don’t know, I stay away…


    MGM – Tracinda increased their stake to 55.9% (I guess using all their freed up GM money) so it’s probably still a good stock to own but they’ll probably do some radical things soon and they may even try to dunk the stock to get rid of retail shareholders prior to taking it public. This was one of our best trades of the year and now it’s up 50% from there so too rich for my blood.


    Rein – excellent info – thanks so much!


    Ag – that’s been baked into the cake for ages, how do you thing psychos are valuing them at $7Bn in the first place. The excitement here is based on the premise that Google is much dumber than Lamar and, rather than negotiate for a BETTER rate for billboards that run their paternted process that Lamar will get from no one else, Google will SHARE their enourmous (though totally unproven) revenue with Lamar and, unlike regular Google ads which pay 10 cents per thousand easily measurable impressions, they are going to pay Lamar far more than Lamar’s current customers are paying.

    That’s how you get a $7Bn market cap for a company that you should be able to buy at a yard sale in the first place. I hope my worst case scenario is Google buys me for 200 times my best year’s earnings!

    Anyway, I do need at least 4 hours sleep so later all!

    The new post is up…

  306. All those cores and 4 MHz seem meaningless if you cant sell them.
    Semi markets are in trouble all over. Margins shrinking and competition is rabid. Im sure INTC spent many man hours and sacrificed much and spent billions to retool just so they can have more chips in their warehouse. When you think you have a grip on the direction of your products and its acceptance to the point of being arrogant you know theres trouble. Its just ingrained at INTC. The average PC user could care less about 4 cores 8 cores, they want the cheapest computer that can surf the web, great game play will be left to the PS3 and Xbox’s of the world. Its costs money to make all those cores even if your using 300, 45′s. Im predicting more job cuts by July.
    I feel the same way about AMD, but like i always say if the management from AMD were in charge of INTC, INTC would be 50 dollar stock.

    Samsung, i was hoping for a good Friday

  307. Oh BTW Kustomz – yes, my daughter’s child will be the leader of China! I am teaching her Chinese as there are close to 200M more men than women in China and, statistically, a lot of them will be very wealthy and looking outside the country for a bride! Easy pickins my friends… ;-)

  308. Great Phil i mean that, i purchased the Mandarin Chinese in ten days from Pimsleur at Barnes and Noble for my niece and myself and its all Greek to me. I am enjoying it.