13.4 C
New York
Monday, April 15, 2024

Long-Term Trade Watch

Now is a good time to review our long-term virtual portfolio, we need to tee up some possible sales against our long-term positions as that was a pretty harsh reversal on Friday.

This is my plan for the stocks we have open:

  • AIG (early March?) Jan ‘09 $70s - basis $9.80, now $9.40 (big drop from early gains)
    • If heading up - wait!
    • If heading down -  sell the $65s for $4,
      • buy back for $3 or less
    • If sideways movement - sell March $70s for .90

I still like this stock long-term and would buy more if it bounced off the 200 dma at $66.  Falling 50 dma is $70.62 which broke down harshly mid-Jan.

  • AMZN (was 2/1) July $37.50s - basis .45, now $4.40
    • Sold $35s against for $3.30, now $3.90

I expected a short-term test of the 200 dma at $35 and with a p/e of 86 I'm very comfortable flipping my caller to March if I have to but we may be back at $37.50 by expiration, which would put us up .80 and maybe considering the March $37.50s for around $1.50 as we can always roll them to the March $35s if it sells off too much. 

  • BA (was 2/8) Jan ‘08 $90s - basis $2.70, now $9.50
    • Unless the market is bouncing - may as well take .85 for the Feb $90s
      • that guy loses .17 per day and my worst cases are:
        • Buy him out on a dip and take a dime hit
        • Roll him into a more expensive March call.

Sadly, as this is an up 228% position I will have to set a stop at $8.75, which should give me a look at the 50 dma at $88.70.  Fundamentally, this stock is great, chart-wise, it has some problems and, if the market is weak, I'd rather come back and bargain hunt later.  

Want to see more?

Reap the benefits of one of our paid membership plans and get access to articles like these PLUS:

  • Insightful daily market reviews
  • Educational guides and posts
  • Access to our Virtual Trading portfolios
  • Unique trading opportunities
  • LIVE trading webinars
  • Intraday market commentary from Phil
  • Our community of traders

Our plans pay for themselves — Don't hesitate!

Join Risk-Free Today!
Already a member? Please sign in.


Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Stay Connected


Latest Articles

Would love your thoughts, please comment.x