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Monday, April 15, 2024

Long-Term Trade Watch

Now is a good time to review our long-term virtual portfolio, we need to tee up some possible sales against our long-term positions as that was a pretty harsh reversal on Friday.

This is my plan for the stocks we have open:

  • AIG (early March?) Jan ‘09 $70s - basis $9.80, now $9.40 (big drop from early gains)
    • If heading up - wait!
    • If heading down -  sell the $65s for $4,
      • buy back for $3 or less
    • If sideways movement - sell March $70s for .90

I still like this stock long-term and would buy more if it bounced off the 200 dma at $66.  Falling 50 dma is $70.62 which broke down harshly mid-Jan.

  • AMZN (was 2/1) July $37.50s - basis .45, now $4.40
    • Sold $35s against for $3.30, now $3.90

I expected a short-term test of the 200 dma at $35 and with a p/e of 86 I'm very comfortable flipping my caller to March if I have to but we may be back at $37.50 by expiration, which would put us up .80 and maybe considering the March $37.50s for around $1.50 as we can always roll them to the March $35s if it sells off too much. 

  • BA (was 2/8) Jan ‘08 $90s - basis $2.70, now $9.50
    • Unless the market is bouncing - may as well take .85 for the Feb $90s
      • that guy loses .17 per day and my worst cases are:
        • Buy him out on a dip and take a dime hit
        • Roll him into a more expensive March call.

Sadly, as this is an up 228% position I will have to set a stop at $8.75, which should give me a look at the 50 dma at $88.70.  Fundamentally, this stock is great, chart-wise, it has some problems and, if the market is weak, I'd rather come back and bargain hunt later.  

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