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Thursday Morning – In progress

“All human wisdom is summed up in two words – wait and hope”

- Alexandre Dumas Père




It is hard to wait for the right moment to deploy our capital.


We investors are, by nature, a hopeful group and we tend to get jumpy when the market looks hot, always worried we are going to miss something.  This is kind of funny because the people who are anxious to buy today are the same people who couldn’t wait to sell on Tuesday.


What changed?  We had this conversation just this weekend when I warned not to get too excited about a "dead cat bounce" yet now we have a weaker bounce and my mailbox is filled with questions from people who want to BUYBUYBUY.  I love buying stocks as much as the next guy but I prefer to buy stocks that ARE going up, rather than stocks that LOOK like they are going up (it’s a fine distinction).


I was excited to buy last week because we oversold because, as I said at the time: "QQQQ made a nice doji yesterday as volume tapered off to half of last week’s peak.  Look for the very rare "abandoned baby" pattern to form in the candle chart of the Qs (it will gap up at the open and finish the day at or above yesterday’s high) to signal a real reversal which could have all those shorts covering for the rest of the week."  I say this now to remind you know I can be bullish when I have a good reason to be!  More importantly, I can also be patient – and that is what is called for here.


The MSM (main stream media) does not want you to be patient – they need you to BUYBUYBUY because US investors control over $4 Trillion dollars in market wealth and if they lose you, it makes it very hard for the "professional" investors to prop up the rest of the market.  Since you purchase no advertising on CNBC while brokers purchase millions of dollars worth each month, their choice is fairly clear in the matter.  You also failed to advertise in the WSJ or Forbes or Fortune or even in the IBD this month, leaving them no alternative when it comes to choosing between the interests of their readers and the interests of their sponsors.


And who do you get your news from?  TWX, DIS, GE, VIA or NWS?  How pleased do you think they are when their stocks get sold off?


So you have only yourself to blame as you are assaulted by messages telling you how foolish you would be to not jump in and buy on the dips.  You don’t have to believe me but just ask yourself, who is selling when you are buying and why do they need YOU to buy if it’s such a good time to get in?  These are the same people who told you that Google was overpriced at $160, that Apple could never grow into its $40 value and that the CME had outrun its potential at $200 – listen to them at your own peril and Beware the Ides of March!


And now, back to our happy, happy market report:


Asia bounced back nicely last night, retaking about 1/3 of yesterday’s 500-point drop bringing the Nikkei roaring back to recover a total of 328 points (18.5%) of it’s 1,768-point drop since 2/27.  Wow – KOUBAIKOUBAIKOUBAI  (that’s Japanese for BUYBUYBUY!  Is my sarcasm too subtle here?  It’s hard for me to tell..).  The Hang Seng was not quite as enthusiastic as the Nikkei, managing just a 132-point recovery for the day, bringing it a full 310 points back from its 2,141-point drop (14.5%).  You’ll have to excuse me if I’d like to watch those markets for another day or two before I start converting all my dollars into Yen-backed securities….


Europe has similar results with the CAC jumping 69 points, all the way to 5,365, now down just 406 points from it’s 2/26 highs.  That’s a 21% bounce!  The FTSE made up 92 points of its 462-point fall (20%) and the DAX added an impressive 109 points, offsetting 18% of its 603-point drop.

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  1. testing like every am…

  2. test again

  3. test

  4. anyone home

  5. We are all in the comments section at

  6. arnie, I’m here after a lotta failed attempts.

  7. Me too, finally got in. Nothing seems to be happening at Seeking Alpha now.

  8. Hi anyone, we’re obviously still having some big technical problems. I’m doing everything I can to get the issue resolved, and we’re really sorry about all this. Thanks for bearing with us-

  9. testing

  10. Yes I’m in!

    So you already know what I’m going to say….


    Had 10 Jun-17.50, 3 Mar-5 calls coming into this morning. Sold half of the June’s and all Mar’s while it was gyrating between 10-11, waiting to see about the rest of the Jun’s. Paying way to much attention to this one stock than is healthy. A subprime near-meltdown – but averted disaster – could be a huge catalyst for a market run. The ONLY thing in the news last week was NEW.

  11. Oil has sold off right before NYMEX close, now 57,50 ish

  12. Boy, what a crappy two days . Phil, you are probably livid right now. .I now I’m sure irritated with the server. . Anybody out there??????

  13. I just came on to see if was working too.

  14. Tried around 7:00 est with no luck, this time loaded “just like the good ‘ole days” !! Fingers x’d for quick access to continue

  15. TSO appears to be a contrarion or non-member of the VLO group. Shite, saw vLO and other oils down then TSO up? Charging West U.S. prices cant be an exclusive benefit to only TSO so there must be other factors/markets they are selling to offset oil price decline?

  16. I’m kicking myself. . I almost pulled the trigger on some March 550 Puts today with CME at 1 buck when it was at $555. . couldn’t do it. . they were worth $ 9 – 10 bucks at close.

    My guess is CME continues lower with that type of volume, , 200 MA around 500 bucks. Phil, any thoughts?

  17. I think I found the problem. I won’t declare victory until we go through a normal day’s worth of comments, but I’m hopeful.

  18. SITE
    Jared, thanks so much!

    John, I think you’re referring to the 540 Ps? That would’ve been a great trade. 550s even better! They are at 18!! Wow!

  19. Phil,
    Just checked out your profolios on the member site! Are the profolio gains for this week, or this month?
    LTP, 51+%, very impressive!

    Made a big jump today. Anyone know what’s up?

    Did go, and close, above 54 today. But, looks like they’ll need to clear, at least, 54.5 to get a real breakout.

    Wow, what’s going on with this stock? (thanks for mentioning it, icarus rising)

    All closed above the 10-day MA today. Looks like the bottom is beginning to form. Will watch them to start heading higher. Phil picked MGM out of the group last week as a LTP, I think.

    These metals look like they could break higher! Need to hold off on buying the puts? I actually ended up buying March 90 Cs on X yesterday and sold them for 1.15 this morning before I even got out of bed! =) Not sure what to think about them. But, their daily charts look like they might go up more.

    Not impressed by their actions today. AAPL daily chart still looks good. GOOG really need a jump to get above the daily MAs. Hopefully, that’ll happen soon! Must at least hold the present levels tomorrow! Waitin’…

  20. Happy Trading, you’re right, they were the 540 Puts. .

  21. hey all. Anyone have information on the MO-When Issued stock? Is the pure Phillip Morris going to have another symbol? I keep hearing it has begun trading..

  22. Hi, anyone knows anything about the NEM, it’s traded to 43.6 after hours with a few large blocks at around 5pm.

  23. thanks to Trader Mike again

    I was not aware of these inverse sector funds.

    For all you oil bears, there is an inverse ETF ‘DUG’ which inversely tracks the Dow Jones Oil & Gas Index. It is unlike the stupid USO ETF which ends paying a lot of commission on oil contracts :-)

  24. and for all of us Real Estate Bears ….

    UltraShort Real Estate — SRS — tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate inversely.

  25. jumped the gun a little too soon.

    DUG is very illiquid, it traded only 4900 shares for the entire day today. The ETF needs more publicity I guess.

  26. Momoneyplz

    Cramer pumped the pure MO last night. He said BUTBUYBUY MO-WI. Ameritrade had a message up this am that you could only get through broker, no electronic, but were trying to remedy. Are there options: I’ve no clue.


  27. Maybe not clear:

    Cramer said the symbol is MO-WI


  28. Thanks, Jared. :-)