Mon/Tues Virtual Portfolio Moves

May 2, 2007

205

Posted April 30, 2007 at 9:47 am | Permalink (Edit)

I think we have a buy opportunity on semis if the broader market holds up but meanwhile – 20% of profit stops as we need to lighten up anyway.

Posted April 30, 2007 at 10:02 am | Permalink (Edit)

I’m rolling my WFR Jan $70s to the Jan $65s at $5.10 (+$1.5), well worth it I think. XXX Not selling yet.

Posted April 30, 2007 at 10:21 am | Permalink (Edit)

Our ISE the Jan $45s have no premium (virtually) at $20.15 so the move is to sell the June $60s for $5.85 and buy back the May $50s at $14.50 XXX

BEAV – yeah that was a hell of a run! Out at $7, up 13,900% since I made .95 on the April $30s!

CSCO – too volatile, doesn’t pay enough for LTP but I’ll like the short-term play when they slam into the big uptrending 200 dma, currently at $25. A pullback and hold at around $26 would make me happy but earnings are next Tuesday so we proably need to do something by the weekend. The June $27.50s aren’t bad at .88 to start a spread but you have to take the $25 puts if they fail at $27 (or on any .15 pullback) XXX

UNH is just giving $55s away for .38 – fun trade only but XXX

Posted April 30, 2007 at 10:46 am | Permalink (Edit)

SWN – good for the $10KP but bad to track there (takes up space all year) so consider it an LTP that some $10KP profits should go to: Buy the SWN Jan $50s for $3.10 and sell the Sept $45s for $3.35 as next earnings will be early August and you’ll be able to roll Sept for a nice premium whichever way it goes. This will tie up $2 of margin so 5 contracts cost $1K in buying power but Z is long bullish so you may want to just sell 4 (or 3 if you are a daredevil) ahead of earnings. The 5/4 ratio is what I endorse as it saves us if the thing jumps $10 (doubt it).

More aggressive day is to take the Jun $45s for $1.50 as well as the May $40 putss for .45 which won’t save you but should be good for .80 back on a dip.

Posted April 30, 2007 at 11:44 am | Permalink (Edit)

QLGC (5/3) – expectations not too high and they are coming off 4 beats in a row with no change in estimate since last earnings. They are beaten down with the Semis who I think are going to explode soon anyway and you can split the Jun $17.50s for $1.10 with the July $17.50 puts for .62. Last earnings they dropped $1.50 and flatilined to Feb expiration, then all the way to $16.50. They have no debt and bought back about 15% of the stock last year. So I like that trade but it’s risky as they may flatline XXX

TSO – I can’t believe I bought out my putter!!! $115 caller stoped out at 20% this morning and $105 call is doing well but I’m still selling the $120s on the turn as a mo play. I am taking $120 puts for $3 if I can get them but I hope I don’t have to say how dangerous this is!!!!!!!!!!!! These guys haven’t corrected since the 16th. XXX for the truly insane!

Posted April 30, 2007 at 12:34 pm | Permalink (Edit)

ATI having a great fall (as in Humpty dumpty, not the season), I’m raising my TIE stop to $2.10.

Posted April 30, 2007 at 2:11 pm | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – rolled May $110 puts to May $120 puts for +$1.90. Seemed like a good idea to spend $2 to buy $10 worth of position.

Just to be clear, there is a plan here. I can move my $5.90 basis May $120 puts (down $3.37) to the $5.40 Aug $115 puts and sell the May $115 puts for $1.35, making up close to half my losses. The June $115 puts are $3 so they’ll make a nice roll.

A very important part of a DD, DD, roll strategy is rolling to a strategic position where you can turn around and become a seller. As long as your goal is to get out even and you stick to it, you have a good chance!

Posted April 30, 2007 at 2:37 pm | Permalink (Edit)

MA might make a good spread someone remind me tomorrow but now would be the time to start accumulating June $120s for $2.50 against (hopefully) the June $110 puts for $2.50 if it bounces back (otherwise you’d need to flip to Jul $105 on a much more complicated play.

Posted April 30, 2007 at 2:42 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Transports imploding, in for another 150 (50%) on my DIA $131 puts at $1.10, stopped out of my $124 calls – not at all happy with today. XXX

Posted April 30, 2007 at 3:00 pm | Permalink (Edit)

TASR – somethings up, grabbing the June $10s for .12, will find out later!

Posted April 30, 2007 at 3:06 pm | Permalink (Edit)

AMZN – all uncovereds off the table – too much gain.

Posted April 30, 2007 at 3:14 pm | Permalink (Edit)

FXI – rolling $110 calls I sold to $106 calls for $2.75 XXX

Posted April 30, 2007 at 3:23 pm | Permalink (Edit)

ECA in power dive – gotta take the CHK Jun $32.50 puts for .52 just in case XXX

Posted May 1, 2007 at 9:37 am | Permalink (Edit)

Another great chance to lighten up on things you were crying about yesterday! Lot’s of money being bet on a Gentle Ben at 10, if he disappoints we may have a problem (but he’s been quite the market cheerleader of late).

Posted May 1, 2007 at 9:57 am | Permalink (Edit)

Apple back over $100 is a big deal. I’m watching GE closely as an indicator and TXN, MOT, MRVL, SHLD, EBAY

$10KP ICE – we are way ahead on the $135 calls we sold ($4.45) so we need to roll the caller to the $130s for $3 XXX, this will cover us all the way through with a profit. XXX

Posted May 1, 2007 at 10:19 am | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – I am so relieved I could cry! That stock is making my whole week.. Now down just 17% on that position, I will take half off the table down 20% if it breaks back up as this is a good enough recovery for me!

I’m waiting for Bernanke but I’m ready to SELL against some LTP positions – generally ones that are at the same level as my leaps.

AIG – no sell
AMZN – stop at $17
BA – sold May $95s
BSX – no sell
CAT – $72.50s for $1.17 IF CAT breaks below $72
CC – disaster, must wait
CEGE – hold, this is more of a gamble
COF – $70s for $4.20 now, not waiting – mo play.

Posted May 1, 2007 at 10:22 am | Permalink (Edit)

CY – stopped out of June $22.50s at .85 Killing the leaps as my ownership premise is gone! XXX

Posted May 1, 2007 at 10:55 am | Permalink (Edit)

More LTP stuff:

GDX – stuck
GE – no way do I sell here
IMAX -play position
JNJ – selling June $65s if stock breaks $64.50
KMI – looking for $1 on $105 put
MOT – holding
MTU – DD on Jan $12..50s at .45
SBUX – earnings Weds, taking a chance
SHLD – taking a big chance on earnings here – may reconsider
SNDK – buying back $45 caller for .32, hopefully won’t have to sell $42.50s
TXN – hold
WFR – hoping for a comeback
XOM – still hoping

Posted May 1, 2007 at 11:03 am | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – stopped out 1/2 at $4.60, I didn’t want to take a chance

Posted May 1, 2007 at 11:44 am | Permalink (Edit)

Catching up on stop-outs:

COP $65 puts at .30.
COST $55s at .50
CVX $75 puts at .50
DIA $130 puts 1/2 out at $1.60
PEIX $15s – bought back for .30
SHLD June $185s – taking off the table (they are uncovered and too close for comfort
SU $80 puts out at $1.70

Posted May 1, 2007 at 12:53 pm | Permalink (Edit)

XAL is a total disaster, I can’t believe you can’t short this thing! Transports just as bad. FDX holding up but UPS taking a dive. $10KP play – Taking the FDX 10 June $110s for $1.65 and selling the 8 May $105s for $2.60 – setting stop on Mays I sell at $3 where I would then set a .25 trailing stop on the June $110s. XXX

$10KP – oops, sorry about that! Not worth tying up all that money for unfortunately if you don’t have margin from another account

Posted May 1, 2007 at 1:27 pm | Permalink (Edit)

I’m so happy with TSO now I’m going DD my Aug $105 puts (as a pre-roll as I can’t wait to get these damn $120 puts off the table!).

Posted May 1, 2007 at 1:37 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Holy cow – look at MDT! Damn, closed the $50s yesterday. I wonder if we’re being flushed?

GENZ flying too, might be a sector thing. June $67.50s for $1.35, will sell the May $65s at no less then $1.60 (.20 Tstop). XXX – that one should work in $10KP for 10 and 10 shares.

Posted May 1, 2007 at 1:48 pm | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – I like my Aug $105s but they are pretty risky earnings play. Now my logic is they turn into 2x Aug $52.50s and the options, by necessity, will split into $2.50 incriments which is great to sell into as you can roll more often so I will have the $52.50s and even if the stock zooms to $65, I still have 2 months to sell positions in this very volatile stock (including, of course, on an earnings spike – if any).

FIZ – very thinly traded but I’m going to pick up some Oct $17.50s for $1.15 if possible. They distribute JSDA in a new 5-year deal and they are coming out with their own line (nice way to leverage the shelf access). Jones took a dive as a Cramer pick gone bad but that doesn’t take anything away from the distributor. They may bottom out at $13-14 and I will downshift to the Oct $15s if that happens but they held up this morning and I don’t want to miss it. XXX

Posted May 1, 2007 at 3:05 pm | Permalink (Edit)

GENZ – not put, the call we’re selling… $1.90 is the current line in the sand off the $2.10 top on selling the $65s. That’s a nice bonus!

Posted May 1, 2007 at 3:26 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Papers – NYT always finds a way to fail, GCI, too late (dropped $2), TRB too late too… NYT Jun $25 puts were $1.80 yesterday, now $1.30 XXX