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Quick Weekend Wrap-Up

Sorry but I was away for the weekend and got back later than expected so just the facts here real quick!

My take on the week was is was a good test of market willpower with lots of bad news and some shaky earnings that still didn’t seem to really matter.  We held most of our levels which amazed me but what really amazed me is how few positions ended up stopping out on us despite the market gyrations.  That indicates to me that the market is still pretty bullish and our "Go with the Flow" virtual portfolio is still pretty bullish too.

I can’t even discuss the 39 positions we closed without explaining them as most of them were positions we sold, so the net "invested" on the group was -$162K, meaning we were paid that much to sell the calls and puts above the positions we added for ourselves.  When those positions were closed out we ended up collecting another $27K (this is just the STP and LTP, not the $10KP or Google or "yawn" Stock virtual portfolio).  So the net gain on cash is infinity as we never laid any out to make the money but it worked out as a great buffer for the positions we did leave on the table.

The average gain of the positions closed for the week as 159% but that includes 1,000%+ gains from no-basis TASR and CEGE calls and without those the average is 66% on 18 average days open.  Our biggest losers were AAPL and COF calls we sold and that’s not too bad because our longer positions benefited from those gains.

That leaves us with our Short-Term Virtual Portfolio with 74 open positions that are much more hedged with an average gain of 19% on 27 average days open.  The Long-Term virtual portfolio has 49 open positions with a ridiculous average gain of 309% as we have, this far into the year, run the basis on many of our positions down to zero (of course that’s the whole point, it means everything else is profit!).  The more important gain on capital is up to 45% on 69 average days open, up from 36% last week indicating we have a pretty strong group there.

Our $10,000 Virtual Portfolio lost $4 for the week to $18,258, which is great considering the beating we took on our DNDN positions, and I will be closing this group out this week and starting a new $10KP next week.  Remaining positions will still be tracked in the STP.  We now have 21 positions in our Stock Virtual Portfolio but that’s because we sold a bunch of calls and the average gain there is 27% on 65 average days held.

All in all it was a really fun week trading.  I think we are getting into a really good groove as a group and making much better decisions and our healthy dose of skepticism has kept us from getting too giddy and overbuying as well as getting too worried and overselling as the market gave us plenty of everything last week.  I still want to pare down the STP but we are slowly but surely rebalancing back to the LTP, which means that, deep down inside, I’m expecting us to have a choppy summer.

Until we get a real confirmation from the market thought, we maintain our bullish but hedged stance in the STP.


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  1. Phil – at some point can you lay out a scenario for AAPL – some kind of Jan 08 or 09 calls – and some sort of shorter term calls to sell against? Thanks


  2. Schaeffer likes the TTH and Utilities. Here is what he said about TTH.
    Pessimism dominates the sentiment backdrop of the telecommunications sector despite its impressive technical uptrend. In fact, Wall Street has turned its back on the components of this sector. Of the 160 analysts ratings on the components of the Telecommunications HOLDRS Trust (TTH – 39.40), less than 29 percent come in at a “buy,” while an impressive 11 percent rate them a “sell.” This bearish configuration leaves ample room for potential upgrades. What’s more, the number of the exchange-traded fund’s (ETF’s) shares sold short jumped sharply in April, pushing its short-interest ratio even higher. This growing short interest underscores the pessimism that continues to surround the sector.

    Outlook: Technically speaking, the ETF is currently resting on support at the 39 level as it consolidates its recent gains, moving into support at its ascending 20-day moving average. The trust remains in a long-term uptrend, rising along the support of its ascending 10-week and 20-week moving averages. As pessimism toward telecommunications stocks unwinds, it should add more buying pressure, keeping the group aloft.

    Jazz


  3. Phil,
    how do I find the returns of the portfolio? I clicked the “portfolio” button and on the spreadsheet the return on STP is negative! there must be something wrong!


  4. YIWU, came up for me. Where was I when the Board was buying all the BIDU calls.

    Jazz


  5. DCX up $3.03


  6. Schaeffer also likes the Homebuilders Spdr (XHB) and individual homebuilders as well in a bullish position. He took a bath on Lennar 45 calls and is currently taking a bath on the selling of RYL May 47.5 P’s….have learned to take his suggestions with caution!


  7. Yeeha! TM, F, VRTX, MRVL, MOT and AAPL all up in BMO trading….good be a great day!!


  8. Karcom,
    I agree Schaeffer can’t pick a winner.


  9. AAPL/any unanswered comments – remind me after close today and I’ll catch up.

    Returns – gain on cash last week was negative. I need to change language as the spreadsheet that shows up in the browser cuts off the text but $ Gain % – is the gain on cash invested while Avg. Gain is the gain on the open posiitions. The new sheets should be up later and it’s always better to just download them, you’ll find out all sorts of interesting things by pulling down the Excel file!

    BIDU – that was so last month!

    Schaeffer – I’d be really careful about following them…

    New post is up.


  10. I think MRVL is going to rally up until earnings this Thursday. .


  11. ICE, BIDU, FWLT, DE, AAPL, GS all look really good and ready to run. Buy targets.
    Watching FXI, LFC, CHL, RIMM, MA


  12. karmcon, what are you doing with RMD? Didn’t you buy some May 45s?

    Jazz


  13. Three cautions on Schaeffer. THX!

    Jazz