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Monday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted May 14, 2007 at 9:26 am | Permalink (Edit)

TM off to a very slow start compared to Asia, where it jumped 5%. I’m buying back my caller right away. XXX

Posted May 14, 2007 at 9:35 am | Permalink (Edit)

Selling DIA $135 puts for .95 with $1.10 stop as mo play against my June puts. XXX

Posted May 14, 2007 at 9:50 am | Permalink (Edit)

VLO – when something goes bad on my a day later I usually just watch it to get my bearings. Down .40 is no time to DD but my decision tree is that I still have faith so I will DD at around $1 if it hits that.

ATI $115 puts for $1.88 stop at $1.50 mo play (.25 tstop) XXX

Posted May 14, 2007 at 10:00 am | Permalink (Edit)

DIA – Oops that was the $134 puts I was selling, not the $135s, which are in the money. XXX I sold those because they have a .70 spread, so even if it goes down I have cushion and it’s just to make up some of my losses (hopefully) on the June $132 puts.

LOW having a good day with earnings not till 21st. I like HD better and they report tomorrow so I’m going to pick up some LOW $32.50s for .05 just for fun as big HD earnings could knock LOW up a buck.

Posted May 14, 2007 at 10:05 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG puts – I can’t bring myself to buy out my putters while they still hold a lot of premium. Of course if you have a small profit and can afford the move you can buy out the $470 putter and sell the $460 puts while it falls and hopefully get yourself into a better, safer position. The premium on the $470 puts is $2 but the $460s sell for $2.50 and are $4 out of the money so it’s a great trade-off. XXX

Posted May 14, 2007 at 10:09 am | Permalink (Edit)

Don’t let the Dow fool you, markets getting weak. Taking out my DIA putter as I don’t trust this to hold. XXX

Posted May 14, 2007 at 10:14 am | Permalink (Edit)

TM – I had sold May $120s for $1.42 which were in the money but the premium jumped up so I haven’t bought them back yet (now $2.55). I only sold against 2/5 of my position so it won’t kill me but I will take them out if it breaks $122. My calls are Oct and Jan so I have plenty of time to sell Junes later.

Posted May 14, 2007 at 10:23 am | Permalink (Edit)

Note to new members – during expiration week I take a lot of momentum (mo) trades on May contracts. These are very dangerous and very speculative and I do not recommend them for most people but there are lots of people who like to know what I’m trading so I post them. I do it this week because the premiums are low and the leverage is high but all that turns quickly against you when you’re wrong and I stop out of most of these trades the second they go the wrong way. I also tend not to log + or – .25 positions as they tend to even out and are a waste of space.

Spent .25 to move DIA $132 puts to $133 puts at $1.50 XXX

Posted May 14, 2007 at 10:28 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG $460 puts now at $3.25 and $4 is the best they’ve been in 2 weeks (other than spikes) so that’s what I’m looking for on the sale but I’ll take $3 if it breaks back up with the market (not looking likely).

Posted May 14, 2007 at 10:34 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG $480s – oops forgot about those. Just leaving them as it was a gamble for me, if I do that every month and it hits one out of 4 times I end up ahead but it’s always a crap shoot.

There is a massive effort underway to keep EBAY below $35 which makes me want the June $35s at .75 XXX

Posted May 14, 2007 at 10:48 am | Permalink (Edit)

ATI- I don’t go back to the well that often, I’m done at $2.40, which isn’t bad for an hour’s work. You can watch TIE at $39 for a reentry signal if they fail it there but at this point I wouldn’t bet on ATI going against the Dow so be careful if the market holds up. XXX

Posted May 14, 2007 at 11:01 am | Permalink (Edit)

AMAT – lots of $20 callers, I think the $20 puts are going to be very tempting at .20. I’m going to pick up a few there and DD at a dime.

IBN – I have a note to myself to sell June $45s so we’ll see how long I can put that off.

Speaking of commodities, FCX getting killed, not sure why but it’s a big Cramer stop that looks toppy anyway. Taking the $70 puts at .50 for mo to see where this stops with a .20 tsop.

Posted May 14, 2007 at 11:50 am | Permalink (Edit)

JBX – I love that company! Up 5% today though, where were you on Friday with this? Cramer picked them last week too so my choice would be to sell the $75 calls for $2.50 but I’ll hold them naked with a $3 stop until tomorrow as this may be some irrational exuberance. I’ll cover with the Dec $80s, currently $5.50 ahead of earnings. XXX (but you need to be able to sell naked calls).

CEPH having a good day. Taking GSK $57.50s for .20 for a fun play (lots of odd buy signals coming in – total gamble). [Did not fill]

Posted May 14, 2007 at 12:37 pm | Permalink (Edit)
LVS – dropping $31.30 Jan $110 puts to 3x $8.85 Jan 80 puts and using the change to buy out current $95 putter and selling Jun $80 puts for $4 as I still think they are due for a comeback. I will only sell half now and another half when I see a turn (.50 tstop). XXX
AAPL – I am using my Oct $95 puts strictly to protect my naked calls now so I’m not selling against it but the June $110 puts are $3.90 which is a $2.90 premium, very nice for a month. It’s worth spending $1.40 to tighten up the puts to the Oct $100s at $4.85 XXX
AMAT – I never got my .20 on the May $20 puts but I’m not going to up my offer by 25% with 4 days to go!
Posted May 14, 2007 at 12:49 pm | Permalink (Edit)
TSO – I’m tired of them at this point! I have to get out of my May $120 puts and I’ll probably move to the June $115s for an extra $1 as I’m losing .40 a day on these…
Posted May 14, 2007 at 1:09 pm | Permalink (Edit)

New Nielson ratings for DVR playbacks could end up helping TIVO as they will market alternate ratings once advertisers accept the concept (they know what you watch, when you watch it – very big brother). They’re a risky stock but the Nov$5s dropped to $1.60 and I have a $1.50 offer in but may pay $1.60 if I don’t get a bite. On a bounce I can sell June $5s or Aug $7.50s for .50 or better to wipe out my premium. XXX [not filled]

IBN – selling the June $45s here for $1.50 as that’s a nice return on my Dec calls. XXX

Posted May 14, 2007 at 1:50 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Transports getting murdered thanks to the Prez. Somebody didn’t like what he had to say and slammed a sell button on the markets in general but at least the oil sector is getting dragged down too. Still 193M barrels open in June NYMEX and July is up to 329M already so I’m going to grab some CVX $80 puts fof .65 as a suicidal mo play (dd at .50, out at .40 with a .15 tstop after that). XXX

Posted May 14, 2007 at 2:10 pm | Permalink (Edit)

EBAY – trying to buy more June $35s at .55, no sale so far.

Posted May 14, 2007 at 2:36 pm | Permalink (Edit)

MEE – D’oh, should have played that, lawsuit exceeds value of company…
I wouldn’t have gone out of the money Bryan but it may look like an ingenious move now. They are up to $.77 already and now I want them too. I’m going to grab the MEE July $25 puts for $1.75 and maybe sell some May $25 puts if I can get $1.50 for them. XXX

Posted May 14, 2007 at 2:49 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Picking up QQQQ $46s for .55 as it went so well on Thursday when I got out at .80, I’m covered with the DIA puts so not too worried about a crash. XXX

Posted May 14, 2007 at 3:32 pm | Permalink (Edit)
MEE opened back up and went up. “Company believes it achieved a compliance rate of 99% or better.” ie. Deny, deny, deny… Still liking the July $25 puts which I got at $1.20 and I’m selling the $30 puts against them as a mo play for $3.20 XXX

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