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Worrisome Wednesday

Shanghai Surprise?

Hardly.  We've been saying for weeks that there are forces aligned trying to take down the China markets and yesterday the Chinese government tripled the "Stamp Tax" on stocks in a move to "cool off" the market.  While much is being made of this, it's still only a .3% tax ($3 per $1,000) on each end of the transaction, so I think this may be much ado about nothing.  Steven Sun, an equity strategist at HSBC in Hong Kong, said in a note that the government is "clearly worried about the A-share bubble" but isn't aiming to substantially hurt stock prices. "Hence the grand 'strategy' is to gradually deflate the bubble but not to prick the bubble," he said.

Notice they are worried about "the A-share bubble," not the B-shares they sell to us foreign devils.  As I've been saying for weeks now, the growing disparity between the A and B shares is not sustainable.  B-shares continued their decline, down another 9% yesterday to 302 after peaking out at 371 on the 21st, the same day I warned:

"Even Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, one of the richest people in Asia, expressed concerns this week over the stock gains, saying he is worried about high price-to-earnings ratios that have created a "bubble." What is troubling is that most of these investors are new to trading stocks, yet they are going after lower-quality shares without considering the downside risk. "In the case of a severe correction, this could lead to social instability," warned Credit Suisse economist Dong Tao, in a report to the investment firm’s clients this week."

We put our money where our mouth was last week, by pulling our long-held FXI leaps at what turned out to be a nice top, leaving just the covered play of the Jan $120s (basis $4.90) against the June $110s, which we sold for $3.70 and should get a nice payoff today.  That being said, I may be flipping to a buy if Europe holds up as I think this sell-off is a bit of an overreaction to a tax that is less than a broker's fee to small players but let's see how our own markets hold up and, much more importantly, how they react to the 2pm FOMC minutes.

China's trade surplus is projected to almost double this year, to $300Bn and there is no denying the underlying strength of the economy.  The National Development and Reform Commission said neither a stronger yuan nor cuts in export-tax rebates would shift export orders away from China, as the world's fourth-largest economy enjoys pricing power in the global market.  "It's hard for importing nations to find replacements for [Chinese] manufacturers," the commission said. "It will be impossible in the foreseeable future to shift orders away [from China] on a large scale.That means Chinese producers can transfer most of their increased costs to importers (that would be us!). The yuan rose 3.25% last year while Chinese export prices increased 4.2%, the commission said.

 Unlike our last China meltdown, today's drop was taken pretty much in stride by the Hang Seng (down .86%) and the Nikkei (down .48%) while India dropped a point after 3 very strong days.  If Europe can hold it together we may have to zero in on some China-specific stocks for a rebound.  CHL is often my favorite of the group and we'll see how they handle the $45 line but I was already liking the $45s yesterday as they dipped to $1.25, at $1 I consider them a worthy risk (using our momentum trade rules).

Another not so surprising move came out of Europe as ONE country refused to accept a climate change treaty that was backed by the EU, China and India with the goal of putting a 3.6 degree cap on average global temperatures before taking emergency measures.  Who could be against stopping global warming before temperatures rise 5%?  Was it Russia (that Putin doesn't care about the rest of the world)?  No, they backed it.  Was it Japan (they make all those cars and kill whales)?  No, Japan was on board.  Was it France or Italy (crazy socialists)?  No, they signed.  Surprise (or not) – it was US!   James Connaughton, chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said the U.S. is not against setting goals but prefers to focus them on specific sectors, such as reducing dependence on gasoline and cleaner coal. "The U.S. has different sets of targets," he said.  A different set of targets than 5% above the already rising average global temperature?!?  We are so doomed!

European markets are down about a point as they prepare to crank up their air conditioners in another hot summer in early (8am) trading.  We already lost the FTSE but now I want to see the DAX hold 7,700 and the CAC hold 6,000.

Our markets are down in early trading too but the China sell-off is a pretty thin premise for taking the markets down so I'll be considering this a shake-out ahead of Fed evidence to the contrary this afternoon.  We still have our stops and I don't mind letting go of some weaker positions, especially with lots of good buys shaping up.  MU was a good one yesterday but MRVL got away from us and hopefully we'll get a shot at them on a dip this morning.  If not, then we will be VERY glad we got our MU's!

 

 

Day’s

Must

Comfort

Break

Next

Index

Current

Move

Hold

Zone

Out

Goal

Dow

13,521

14

12,468

12,600

13,000

13,500

Transports

2,912

31

2,825

2,900

3,000

3,250

S&P

1,518

2

1,430

1,460

1,500

1,550

NYSE

9,892

16

9,218

9,465

9,600

10,000

Nasdaq

2,572

14

2,454

2,500

2,600

2,750

SOX

483

2

477

490

500

560

Russell

837

7

803

820

850

900

Hang Seng 20,293 -175 20,200 20,600 21,000 22,000
Nikkei 17,588 -84 17,400 17,500 18,300 18,500
BSE (India) 14,411 -96 13,200 14,000 14,725 15,000
DAX 7,700 -80 6,900 7,000 7,400 8,000
CAC 40 6,003 -52 5,650 5,800 6,000 7,000
FTSE 6,549

-57

6,325 6,450 6,600 7,000

This could turn pretty ugly so let's be careful.  We are almost certain to give back the green we gained yesterday on the Dow and the Transports early on but none of our other indices are likely to cross today so I'll be looking to see if we get more than halfway to danger without a bounce on today's moves.  We really, really don't want to see 2 European indexes turn red but that will be resolved at noon, well ahead of the Fed minutes. 

PHM announced they will cut 1,900 jobs in a restructuring and, for some reason, barely budged yesterday but Barry Ritholtz has the right title as he says the: "Housing Freefall Continues Unabated."  I will, at this point, warn homeowners with small children to have them leave the room before you look at this chart, which may cause you to say something you don't want them to hear:

Photo

Gosh that's a steep decline, gee I hope they don't raise rates…  Too late sucker, they already raised rates as the 30-year note has passed 5% for the first time in ages and the 10-year note looks to test that level as well.  Anything less than soft language from the Fed this afternoon is likely to break that critical barrier, effectively adding even more pressure to housing prices.

Zman was on a tear yesterday about the insane (and unsustainable) refiner crack spread and we'll see today how TSO responds to their new split price (big sell-off PLEASE!).  This morning he is on top of things ahead of tomorrow's delayed inventory reports (those one-day holidays make it impossible for them to add it all up by Wednesday I guess, not that they're accurate anyway…) where our man Flynn predicts a 2Mb draw in gasoline as ZMan theorizes: "..hoping to create a buying opportunity when the number comes out and it’s bigger and drives gasoline prices down (like last week). At that point you go on CNBC, who conveniently forgot how off your number was, and attempt to drive RBOB back up with tales of doom and gloom while videos of refineries burning are played just over your shoulder."

We'll see how this little drama plays out tomorrow morning but for today we will watch the dollar, as no 82.50 will mean no major downturn (I know, it's all so counterintuitive) and gold below $666 means don't worry, be happy as copper is sure to follow ($315 is the break point).

Be careful out there today!


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  1. FXI- very nice call Phil
    BIIB- sh*t, wish I had kept those calls from Friday. LOL


  2. Good Morning all…


  3. BIIB and GSK – &*^$%!

    Good mornng Ramana.


  4. ICE $140 puts at $2.75 as a mo with a .50 Tstop. XXX


  5. Nuts – post broke out of QQQQ $47 puts at .97, will roll to july if it heads down. XXX


  6. FLWT strong early!


  7. I was saying that RIMM was holding up, AAPL is a gift after the MER upgrade, GOOG looks strong, MRVL is also a gift as it comes down to $15.60… markets just don’t look that bad yet.

    Watching 2,550 on Nas (and grabbing QQQQ July $46 puts, now .88) and 1,510 on the S&P and a lack of 13,500 on the Dow as big danger signs (1 of 3 so far). Add gold $660 to the bench and $480 as a level the SOX must retake and 2,900 on the TRANQ for good measure.


  8. Happy –
    I hope that you sold a little bit of the BIIB Oct you bought yesterday. Good work.


  9. JOYG- Wow alot of buying came in!


  10. Happy to get $2 for my DIA $136 puts, moving to July $135 puts at $2.40 XXX


  11. The WSJ reprots that IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) has reached an agreement with the Chicago Board Options Exchange valued at about $665m that could help settle a longstanding dispute between the options exchange and its longtime rival CBOT (BOT). The agreement, expected to be announced as soon as this morning, is designed to give ICE a leg-up in its high-stakes battle with CME, which has the support of Board of Trade mgmt. The unusual agreement ICE has negotiated would only happen if the Board of Trade becomes part of ICE.


  12. ICE – should we close out the 140 puts just initiated?


  13. Nat gas soaring. Low formed in the GOM off w. Cuba. With the official start of hurricane season beginning Friday it’ll have everyone bugged.

    http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=2


  14. QCOM/BRCM – Broadcom Wins Qualcomm California Patent Case; QCOM to pay $19.6M
    http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,2138329,00.asp


  15. COH- sold June calls .60 gain. Sold a little early. Naturally. Same story KC maybe we see $50
    Bucy- two big up days this week.
    Investigation of CNBC contest. What a joke


  16. JOYG taking a joyride!


  17. ICE $2.25 is stop or watch for break over $147 but the play is on their continued pursuit of BOT, not just a market trend. They simply cannot afford this deal but the $665M agreement is brilliant (and will really piss off CME).


  18. NOVC huge deal not optionalble but a mo buy at $14!


  19. Oops! Went up $1.20 as I posted it… LOL


  20. QCOM – pittance, I doubt BRCM will be happy.

    WSM lowered guidance, may be a bad sign for luxury or could just be the Pottery Barn weighing them down.


  21. MRO- ATH
    COH- there you go KC, FINALLY


  22. COH – nice one, worth a chance on the July $52.50s for $1.15 XXX


  23. BillBigD,

    COH – you bought or you sold or both? Looks like COH is still on the rise, finally broke over it’s 10,20,30 etc ema and nearing top BB. Waiting to see if it hits $50.5


  24. Phil,

    Is there a periodic point in time when the IV on options gets adjusted? I was watching AAPL calls today and although the stock is about a dollar at this point, July 115s for example were down compared to yesterday.

    Thanks,
    Yev


  25. Remember no inventories today -delayed until tomorrow due to Monday being a holiday


  26. FWLT – watch the $100 puts if you sold them as this is a chance to buy them back at yesterday’s lows if they fail at $103 again. Double top means we can wait and sell the $95 puts later but if they break up we’ll be really glad we sold the $100s. XXX


  27. ICE
    out for a loss of 100


  28. ice over 147 now


  29. MSFT very strong this morning


  30. FWLT another TSO????


  31. KC
    SOLD calls bought yesterday June $47.50′s. Missed another .40 Oh well I have plenty LOL.
    Does anyone have the New Post? Heard A-rod is one the back page with a blonde? Can’t get on the website. LOL


  32. NOVC – I missed the $14 mark but bought in 100 at $16.15 and just sold them for $16.75, risking $1600 for the chance to win $60, minus commissions – $46 Net. Yippee! That’s free gas for almost 2 weeks.


  33. WFR

    -fighting the headwinds

    -pushed above 13EMA and 50 EMA this am – if it gets to, or better closes above, 34EMA ($58.66) it would be a very strong 1 day move


  34. Phil or anyone onboard for OVTI earnings tomorrow? An options play?

    Thx


  35. FXI
    This is the most interesting comment I have run into, and one for a short term shhort on FXI:

    Credit Suisse notes that China’s Finance Minister raised stamp duty for stock trading from 0.1% to 0.3%. Credit Suisse states: 1. Clearly, this move is targeted to cool down the stock market. 2. On its own, this measure is not enough to cool down the red hot market, same as the monetary measures announced 2 weeks ago. 3. The most important implication, however, is that the concern of stock market bubble is spreading out purely from the monetary authorities (i.e. PBOC and CBRC) to other government authorities, as stamp duty policy is governed by Ministry of Finance and its increase is approved by the State Council. 4. More measures will continue to come if the market continues to go up. As firm said earlier, the attitude of the stock market regulator, CSRC, is probably most important, while its stand is most ambiguous. 5. In next few days, the A share market will probably come down in view of this measure, as it indicates a step-up of the government’s concern over the stock market.

    JB


  36. IV is adjusted after hours but supply and demand drive intra-days on active contracts.

    FWLT flying now, nice Cramer effect! I’m still going to take out the putter at $2.10, will either kill the trade or roll to $100 puts if it keeps going.

    NILE taking off too so I guess WSM problems are on the low end.


  37. Can someone remind me what a mo play and xxx mean? I’m new here. Thanks.

    Andrew


  38. egseattle… two weeks of gas = $46.00?!


  39. mo – momentum play.

    xxx – kisses, I think. ooo is hugs, but I’ve never seen that one. Just kidding, I have no idea what xxx is.


  40. mo play is a momentum based trade, usu. with a tight stop and trailing stop. xxx means limit order placed, but not necessarily executed.


  41. BillBigD,

    COH – got it. You’re playing this in a different way. I’m still waiting to sell against leaps.
    NMX – that’s one volatile stock; if they’d just swing a couple $ below $125 (I ended up selling 125s at $125). You must be close to a free ride on this by now.


  42. XXX – pretty much means a recommended trade. It means you can search the page quickly for trades. Just press CTRL & F and then find all XXX instances.
    Jack.


  43. BillBigD – that is his alter ego!! His wife may be interested in that pic…


  44. Gm all.

    Huge volume in the ERTS Jul 50′s again today?? Cant find any news though


  45. NMX- yes they are free! This round I sold on some a little early. I got excited and thought I could buy them back but no go.
    COH- Yes I had the faith that they would go back over $50 at some point. I have had this girlie stock for a long time.


  46. ICE – hmm, that didn’t go well!

    FWLT – not TSO at all, I just paid $2.45 to avoid yesterday’s mistake as I missed $2.10 by a hair. This stock is just annoying me now…

    OVTI – we have the Jan ’09 $15s at $3.05, now $3.75 and sold the current $15s for .80, now .85 and I see no reason to remove my protection.

    FXI – good, it makes my selling calls against leaps much safer if they keep a lid on the damn thing!


  47. phil
    FWLT – would you please clarify your position on this trade, are you buying or selling puts, the 100′s or the 95′s? thanks in advance.


  48. BillBigD – I picked up NMX from you (thanks again!) but still playing catch up (only 5/8 free).


  49. GRMN
    running up!


  50. GRMN taking off. .


  51. Phil I think a really good play is BOT June $210. They are cheap at $1.00 and an expected bid should come out with the new ICE moves. ICE leapfrogged CME’s next bid with this CBOE agreement.
    New Ttrading data should be coming out soon too, but all I see is only positive for BOT and the risk/reward ratio on these calls are very good.


  52. Phil,

    Looks like MRVL is making a nice dip. What options are you considering?

    Clare


  53. GOOG – CME catching bids


  54. Welcome Amt0803! Ask about mo play strategies later when we have time but it’s usually just a day trade with a trailing stop, and just a gamble and certainly not for everyone! Thanks for help guys…

    GRMN continues up!


  55. TRLG and DAKT coming out of nice bases


  56. RL- nice recovery
    FCX-ATH


  57. GRMN – Garmin(R) Publishes API Library and Opens Communication Between Third Party Websites and Garmin GPS Devices (May 29, 2007)

    http://tinyurl.com/2e4824

    “Until recently, third party websites have been unable to communicate easily with Garmin devices,” said Charles Morse, Garmin’s director of mobile and PND marketing. “This announcement is a win-win for developers and Garmin and it paves the way for more innovative applications. By expanding our developer applications and allowing programmers to integrate Garmin’s leading-edge technology into their sites, we are making it easier for third party content providers to leverage the huge community of Garmin devices by providing tools that will allow them to communicate directly with Garmin systems. This will create new markets for the programmer’s content and services, while generating a grassroots movement that will spread Garmin’s name and technology to consumers through third party websites and content distribution channels.”


  58. Phil

    Any thoughts on SHLD for tomorrow? I have Jan 190′s that I have not sold against . But i think I need to sell 1/2 the number of Jun 180′s at 4.50 or so to cover. ( Remembering your rule of “when in doubt sell 1/2″ )

    Thx
    T


  59. WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — AT&T Inc. gained 0.7% to lead phone stocks Wednesday, while Qualcomm Inc. fell 2% and Alcatel-Lucent dropped 1.4% as shares of most equipment vendors declined.
    Earlier, Randall Stephenson, AT&T’s chief operating officer, told investors at a Lehman Brothers conference in New York that more than 1 million potential customers have shown an interest in buying Apple Inc.’s much-touted iPhone wireless handset.
    The iPhone will become available next month exclusively through AT&T (T : AT&T Inc
    T40.82, +0.33, +0.8%) , with initial prices set at $499 and $599.
    Stephenson, who’ll become AT&T’s chief executive at the end of the week, said investors might be underestimating the degree of pent-up demand for the iPhone. His comments are the most optimistic yet by a senior AT&T executive.


  60. IYR continues to go straight up -around 7% in three days.


  61. BWLD crashing for no particular reason.

    MRVL play:
    Buy Jan ’09 $17.50 for $2.62
    Buy Jan ’08 $15s for $2.48
    Sell July $15s at $1.25 against Jan $15s only (.70 premium).

    The ’09s act as a stop in case it breaks up too far and by the time your ’08s expire you have free ’09 calls.

    =======================================================

    FWLT – I think I may take my .20 loss and go home at this point, that thing does the opposite of whatever I do! I bought out my $100 caller for $2.45 and I am leaving my Jan $95 puts naked out of principal as this stock is simply NOT worth $100 (but neither is TSO so take it for what it’s worth).

    BOT – your premise is that one of these idiots will pay $10 more than their last ridiculous offer – while it’s possible, I don’t think I want to bet on it but I also still don’t believe KMI went for $105. I would rather SELL the $200s for $3.65 than buy the $210s but I don’t like the spreads and any crazy thing can happen so I’m just going to leave it alone.

    AAPL too weak to buy a big rally, SOX not recovering BKX is down so right now I’m fixating on the S&P’s choice between 1,515 and 1,520.

    MSFT invented a coffee table that will be obsolete every 3 years and cost $5,000 – BRILLIANT! Maybe they can use it to pile up unsold Zunes…


  62. PHIL- you need to get on CNBC and argue the profits that VLO, TSO are making. And show people the figures you posted the other day. I am long but nobody seems to bring this up.


  63. Tasr is racing ahead!


  64. BA get ready to roll


  65. Phil, is the buy on the JAN 08 for the MRVL trade a put?


  66. COOLKID
    Thanks on the GOOG play. I am gone. $1.5 gain.


  67. CDL-Citadel Broadcasting is paying a $2.+ spec div per share for shrhldrs of record on 6-4-07 contingent on merger with spinoff from DIS…..looks like its a go….even ex-div decrease in price can’t make me pass this one up since stock is at $8.65 now

    Walt Disney also set June 6 as the record date for the spin-off and merger of its ABC Radio business with a subsidiary of Citadel Broadcasting Corp. (CDL : citadel broadcasting corp com 8.61-0.18-2.05%

    :mrgreen:


  68. TASR breaking out!!!

    SHLD – mine look like this:

    SHLD Jul-07 $185.00 Call 05/25/07 4 $4.50
    SHLD Jun-07 $180.00 Call 05/25/07 -4 $4.50
    SHLD Jul-07 $175.00 Put 05/25/07 4 $4.20
    SHLD Jun-07 $180.00 Put 05/25/07 -4 $4.50

    SHLD Jan-08 $200.00 Call 4/20/2007 10 $10.50
    SHLD Jun-07 $180.00 Call 05/18/07 -40 $5.00
    SHLD Jun-07 $190.00 Call 02/15/07 40 $2.05
    SHLD Sep-07 $195.00 Call 04/19/07 20 $8.90

    More than 1/2 covered but a generally bullish outlook as I only recover $4 against my 30 long positions to the downside so anything below $170 will probably sting. On the upside, I’m giving up my first $2 of gains but I’m free to run after that.

    ============================================

    CROX on the mend.

    =============================================

    AAPL – I’m playing them bullish too:

    AAPL Jan-09 $120.00 Call 05/10/07 10 $16.10
    AAPL Jun-07 $110.00 Call 05/17/07 -15 $3.25
    AAPL Oct-07 $115.00 Call 05/17/07 10 $5.00
    AAPL Oct-07 $105.00 Put 04/25/07 11 $6.35
    AAPL Oct-07 $125.00 Call 05/25/07 30 $5.40


  69. Karm, you have something new?

    The payout will be for Las Vegas-based Citadel’s (NYSE: CDL) shareholders of record as of June 8. The deal is set to close on on June 12.


  70. Yeah Phil, I wish I would have had you in my hip pocket the other day, ex-brother in law is the COO for Frontier Oil’s Wichita refinery and his stat answer to any point was, “Who’s telling you that? That’s the problem we have, so much disinformation out in the unknowing public sector”!!


  71. Phil,
    cramers take on fwlt seems to support $100

    ****Infrastructure: Cramer calls this the “wildest” bull market which will benefit from oil prices and the need to create alernative power plants and petroleum infrastructure. Even though Foster Wheeler and McDermott International have had “tremendous runs” Cramer notes FWLT sells at just 17x next years earnings with 34% growth, and MDR has 14% growth and sells at 17x earnings. He adds these stocks do not get enough coverage on Wall Street, and would buy them. Cramer gives Jacob’s Engineering and honorable mention, although is more expensive than the other two.


  72. Nopers, Pitch just a lil excited on the 10key and hit wrong Jun date….your dates are correct.


  73. wow. GOOG. . if dovish comments from the Fed minutes today, I see Google hitting 500 bucks today. .


  74. AMZN getting ready to go green again.


  75. MRVL – no it’s 2 layers of calls and you are making a premium sandwich as you get a very high premium but the stock could pop up $1 at any time so you hold both longs and sell the $15s (or whatever is in the money) against just the lower position. It’s a long-term bullish play on MRVL selling the short-term premiums while you wait for it to break up.

    Now GOOG and APPL moving – things are looking good again.

    TASR shockingly good! Big order from SC and CT. Jan $10s are a double already – let’s see if we can break $11. I do love this company as a huge long-term winner (one of my retirement stocks).


  76. Phil, does that particular MRVL 3 way combination have a strategy name? It seems the ideal situation is for MRVL to stay flat or mildly lower through July expiration, and then shoot up? Or are you expecting it to stay flat for several months before popping upward, in which case you hope to collect several monthly premiums?

    If that is indeed the plan, then what if things don’t go accordingly? At what price point and month combination (just a rough idea) would you cut your losses and close the contracts?


  77. Phil, BWLD had a downgrade today, saw it on the ticker this morning on Bloomberg. .Not sure what analyst.


  78. Anyone mention the very impressive CEO of POT on Fast Money last night. Not surprising stock up $1.61.

    Looks like a Leap prospect.

    Jazz


  79. MVIS – anybody follow this thing? chart is looking like a breakout. .


  80. BA – when is a good time to roll the 95 caller? Right now, premium left is $0.5 whereas 100s are $1.5 and Jul100s are $3.05. Thanks.


  81. Karmcon, this is a bit of news from yesterday regarding the move in ERTS. I guess the momentum is carrying over today.

    The Think Equities conference gets underway at the Ritz Carlton in Half Moon Bay, CA. ERTS is one of the presenters on Thursday at 11 am Pacific. Given that the video game maker said they “could begin a managerial overhaul next week”, the announcement could come at the Think Equity confab.

    The July 50 calls are showing 3,300 contracts changing hands and over 90 percent of same were aggressive buyers paying the offer. With ERTS up $.66 to $48.53 on 150 percent of normal stock trading volume it certainly looks as if the bulls are pushing their case. Indeed the options buying out in July also suggests the more than a 1-week effect from whatever news will come, and against an April average daily volume of 2,300 contracts, today’s 4,700 calls is impressive.


  82. Phil (or anyone), another MRVL logistical question.

    If I do follow that 3 way strategy and assuming MRVL stays the same ($15.51 currently), then I WILL get called out at June expiration, but I don’t OWN the shares, I just control some LEAPS.

    What do I tell my broker to do at June expiration when the calls I sold are 50 cents in the money and I don’t really own the shares, just some leaps?


  83. egseattle – You usually roll the options when the premium gets low. This happens a week or two before expiration. Or you can just close both sides of the trade.


  84. Karm – oh I’ve got to meet him! Would he show me the books?

    FWLT – “He adds these stocks do not get enough coverage on Wall Street” oh and what street does he think he’s on?” So the stock went up magically from $54 in March to $104 in may without any “Wall Street guys” noticing. That is such bandwagon BS! I like Cramer but when I hear things like that it makes me remember that, deep down inside, he’s just another fund manager (or friend of one) shilling his wares on TV so all his insider buddies can cash out on the backs of his viewers. There’s nothing wrong with pcking a strong stock, but at least wait for a correction so you don’t wipe out a year of someone’s savings on the 3 out of 4 of these that top out…

    ESLR moving off the floor, worth a shot at the Jan $7.50s for $1.92, eventually selling Julys for the premium. XXX


  85. Thank you Moola.


  86. Make$$. Thanks for that info! Jumped on at 1.45 so am up about 11%, but don’t have a feel right now for this one…..don’t want to overstay my welcome, but don’t want to pass up the free meals either!


  87. TASR – should we buy back our June 10s for a loss? Or wait it out?


  88. Another stat answer was, “No, that’s wrong, show me something that says that”….kind of difficult to do at a barbeque (not a crackberry carrier)!!


  89. A few more pops and it might have become flying backfist time…..:grin:


  90. Hi Matrix: I have been following MVIS for a couple of years, been in and out of the stock several times. Bought some in early May around $4.20 and had a really tight stop and got stopped out. My bad.

    MVIS has new CEO and some top shelf new board members. They seem to be much more focused on bringing a few products to market rather then their old research all over the map. They claim top have OEM interested in two product lines, the projector in a cell phone device and the automotive heads up windshield displays.

    I know someone who knows their HR folks and they have been staffing up like they expect good things in the near future.

    I like this stock and will buy again on a dip back to support at 50 DMA.

    Greg


  91. Thanks Greg. .appreciate the insight on MVIS


  92. Waiting for the 12:20 – 12:50 pop in WFR to lighten my load a bit, that stock does have a wide daily swing to it.


  93. Phil, missed the NOVC trade, think it is worth buying some common shares on the lunch hour pulback.


  94. FWLT- Cramer picked it April at $68 so I think he did his viewers pretty good. He also stated that only 4 or 5 firms have coverage.

    04/16/07 – will benefit from Supreme Court’s decision on April 4th that allows the EPA to regulate carbon dioxide emissions – will force compliance with state laws – expect multiple expansion in “green” sector – co is a leader in cleaning up plants – its boilers can cut emissions by 90% – in the sweet spot – has low earnings multiple (only 3/5ths of its growth rate) – will take huge run – expect it to move over to the NYSE – goes to 105 68.02 new
    04/17/07 – next day close 68.23 +0.31
    05/04/07 – reports Wed – expect them to deliver – buy half before they report & half after on any weakness 70.51 +3.66
    05/10/07 – one of the “dirty dozen” (use Search by Keyword for complete list) that the institutional money managers love to buy at the same time that the supply of its stock is shrinking (only 64.6m shares out) – the correction today is an oppty to buy them – had great qtr – business strong in the Middle East – big institutions will load up – see it going to 100 87.89 +29.21
    05/15/07 – would take a little off the table – but think it will go to 100 92.31 +35.71
    05/29/07 – the wild bull market in infrastructure will continue – stock is still cheap even after big run – is still lightly covered by Wall Street – triple buy


  95. And I didn’t buy JOYG on the pullback this morning because why??? crap, lol. . .


  96. COH-screaming
    FCX-keeps on rockin-- PCU next I hope


  97. OIH – Jul160 puts back down to $3.1. Time to buy more?


  98. Makemoney

    Where do you find good/accurate volume information about stocks/options. I know that Yahoo and free sites have that info…is there a good pay site or is it through your brokerage? Thanks


  99. buy programs kicking in?


  100. mea culpa MRO


  101. MRVL – I’m collecting premiums while I wait for them to resolve their issues. I am not harmed by a pop (other than making less than the max) and I feel comfortable that this is a floor (it’s held since 2004). The sale of .70 worth of premium just 4 times pays for my shorter calls leaving them free and in the money (hopefully) with 3 months left to go. If the stock really tanked, I might consider bracketing down but it would depend on why it happened.

    MVIS – I’d like them better if they made money (or were going to in the next year or so).

    BA – with 12 days to trade I’m not looking to give up the protection. My leaps are pretty much in lockstep with my caller so I’m all risk and little reward if I take him out before I’m sure we’re breaking $100. Over $100 I’ll want to sell the July $100s for about $4 and I’ll take the hit on the Junes then. No confirmation from Boeing Buddies BEAV, AIR, TIE and ATI makes me a little worried.

    MRVL – Moola is right, you never let that happen! Each time you roll you pick up the premium on the following month but we’ll keep tracking the trade becase there may be a signal to take our putter out ahead of possible good news.

    TASR – like BA, I’m moving with my caller so I’d rather have protection until I see a confirmed breakout. Note this is 1/2 protected, not all!

    NOVC – no the fun is over, now you’d have to hold it and worry about a pullback. If they had options I’d do it but now it’s just an actuarial play.

    FWLT – that’s great that he got some people in at $68 but what I object to is the cheerleading BUYBUYBUY over 50% later and catching people who weren’t so lucky on 4/16. There’s 9,000 other stocks – move on or at least say it’s an ATH.

    Speaking of ATH – there goes AAPL!

    CME with a little comeback.

    TSO gaining like it’s still a $120 stock!

    POT loving their split (which I thought was tomorrow).

    Gotta be ready to go either way at the Fed, lining up DIA puts and calls for a possible big pop but my week’s forecast was for flatline so that wouldn’t surprise me either.

    Speaking of shock- TASR going nuts! Picking up July $12.50s for .35 rather than selling the puts. XXX


  102. ZZZZ,
    I didn’t want to jinx my gains so I said nothing. Any thoughts on XTO I bought some this morning as the chart is looking sweet(as in crude) HEE HEE


  103. MVIS

    Matrix – have been in it for a month – looks like inverse H&S breakout/retest and now breaking out further — large short position in the stock. They’ve stated they expect a “cell handset deal” this summer, and have announced an auto deal (unnamed development partners) for their picoP laser display tech

    - I’m in Dec calls – wish they had a later expiry, since CES ’08 is a big focus for them


  104. you definitely do NOT want to buy MVIS.

    I know people who work there. They are miserable.


  105. Looking like CROX may break 80 at this pace.


  106. Z, CRK making nice move on low volume, though. You still like it?

    Jazz


  107. GRMN
    out with +21%


  108. OIH – I hate to jump right back in again but it is tempting. Having stopped out of these oils I’d just as soon wait for inventory tomorrow rather than take chances.

    MRO is a good catch, I’ll take those July $115 puts for $2.10, they were $2.85 this morning! XXX Happy to DD and roll these.


  109. TEX- took some off the table


  110. Matrix: I recall there was a good MVIS article on Seeking Alpha last week (or the week before). You may want to look it up in archives.

    Phil, once MVIS shows a profit, the train may have left the station, this is a long shot gamble for a ten bagger return. Technical patterns are the driver here not fundamentals.

    Greg


  111. excellent timing, happy. i’m long the common. sticking to equities during my probation period here. i must say there is a LOT i am learning here about options, and i still have a lot more to learn.


  112. MVIS – was just going by the charts. .had nice volume back in April, consolidated nicely on lower volume, and then bammm!


  113. SOX – can’t seem to move off the schneid


  114. CROX – $79.81. .if it takes it out, watch out. the shorts will be headed for the windows.


  115. TASR: chart looks like it is just not testing resistance from APR 06. since I misswed the good entry when you guys jumped in, I will wait for a close above this pre-breakout test. These breakout tests often fail.

    If I am missing something, please explain to a newbie.

    Also, I am still biased to the downside and looking for short plays rather then longs right now.

    Greg


  116. Nice one Happy!

    Hey David Goertz ($50 next year) of Highmark Capital is actually being allowed to say oil has peaked. Phil Flynn ($70-75 by August) is, of course right there to rebut him! What a joke this all is. They give Flynn about 3:1 airtime. Somehow he says if we didn’t have problems in Cushing (which is an oversupply problem) then oil would be $70 already. In other words, if they could have kept this scam going by dumping oil into storage instead of having to cancel contracts for oil nobody needs, they could have jacked up the price another 10% – maybe Bush can help out by stocking up the SPR over the summer…


  117. GRMN
    Thanks, guys!


  118. COH-rejected at $52
    Phil- nice play on the July’s 52.50′s
    MA- ATH


  119. MVIS – looking at their long-term chart, it looks more like one of those trains my kids ride (goes in a circle). If it’s a 10 bagger I’ll be happy to buy it when it hits $8 and gathers momentum – I’ll settle for a 6 bagger with less risk. If they had a good premium I would consider it but you only get .35 for the July $5s – what fun is that? I do like the Sept $7.50/$2.50 spread for .25 as a fun play.

    MA at the ATH

    TASR – make sure it holds $11 for more than a day before chasing it.


  120. PQ taking off


  121. COH – you’re welcome, that’s it for now at $1.80 XXX


  122. Commerce Dept setting more duties onChina Glossy Paper.


  123. CRK – they had the best 1Q of any E&P and gave great guidance. What’s not to like? :-)

    MRO – good for you BBD. XTO – saw your question on that Friday. I like the gassier names in here but it’s a well run company and on days like today, any E&P in a storm will do. LOL.

    PQ hitting new highs. Still no news on a well that should have been announced many days ago. Could be testing, think they’d have announced if it were dry hole.

    HK – new highs, CHk, NFX and EOG rebounding nicely.

    NE, GRP AND HAL still like.

    Refiners – make no sense as the entire summer gasoline strip, not just the current month is edging lower.


  124. ZZZ,
    Oh I thought XTO was very gassy! Should l look more into EOG or UPL?
    ESV- making a breakout!
    GES- ditto


  125. With all that said, I’ll be liquidating all option positions in the next two weeks. Many of these I’d roll but I’m going to be out of pocket mid June.


  126. BBD
    xto – they are gassy at just under under 80%. I was just thinking more like a CHK 92% n.gas , KWK 95%,SWN at 96%. EOG is gassy but they trade with oil more than gas prices.

    nice move esv.


  127. MVIS – from looking at LMRA’s 1-yr chart may be beneficial here. I am intimately familiar with these two companies.

    from a management perspective MVIS is the example of what not to do. Oh well, live and learn.


  128. Shorts ready to implode on CROX ..


  129. ZZZ,
    Thanks for the help on Nat Gas.
    POT- OK time to PUFF out my chest. This stock is up $50 since I brought this to Phil Blog!


  130. CROX June 80 calls for momo
    MA JUN 150 calls momo
    GOOG JUN 500 calls momo
    SHLD JUN 185 calls momo
    All look like breakouts waiting to occur. All finding support at previous resistance levels.
    The rotation from Asian markets to US equities will continue. The divergence will converge.
    Phil I think that was the correction for us now on tho new highs!


  131. Starting to get the feeling that Fed Minuted release at 14.00 will have us ripping higher as shorts have to cavoer for June


  132. Looks like aapl is going nuts.


  133. ATI
    gaining momentum; might be going for a run!


  134. BBD – Forgot to mention APC but that’s one that will be getting more attention due to Icahn and their restructuring is nearly complete. Analysts starting to warm to it


  135. The crocodile is getting ready to try for 80 again.


  136. Hello all been a looooong last 2 days.

    Run EBAY you rat. run.


  137. CROX
    touched 80!!

    GRMN
    still going!!


  138. Oh no! Not glossy paper!!! Anything but that…


  139. Pullback into Fed mins


  140. Dragon – don’t think anything ahead of the Fed, it will just mess you up….

    You would think oil rammed back through $65 the way these guys are going.


  141. If they like the minutes, wouldn’t be surprised for another headfake like last time, Nasdaq maybe 2650, S&P 1510, before heading higher. .


  142. Phil,

    Do you have a target price for TIE in mind or just keeping an eye with BA, etc?

    I’ve got TIE July 35s @ 1.70 and trying to decide what to do with them after the last few days of beat-down and today’s run.


  143. GRN – Thanks, Happy


  144. oops…that was GRMN not GRN :-)


  145. Phil, for sure taking profits and waiting out until the Fed Mins and the market response. Avoiding the initial knee jerk reaction and watching the price volume action, hopefully it finds support, then recalculating for high probability trades!

    Hey Phil and gang, my favorite books that have contributed to speed my learning curve and my success are many. But my favs are High Probability Trading -Marcel Link and Lessons from the Greatest Traders of All Time by John Boik!
    To be the best, you have to build upon the knowledge of the best.

    CRM moving on rumor possibly of a GOOG buyout, my bro said that rumor was on IBD the 21st.


  146. Any idea what the fed mins will say?


  147. Gazpacho,
    I pay for my information. Some people will not pay for services and just use the free forums, but I find a lot of noise in some of the free forums, especially Yahoo. Although, I do check Yahoo as well. I figure that if I can make back my subscription cost and more, then it’s worth it to me! Email me at btravelling3@yahoo.com. I don’t want to be accused of free advertising!

    For example, you could have made a few $$ on the AAPL runup today!
    Apple Options Running! AAPL 10:14 AM EST
    Its not a Cat 1 trade by a big stretch, but when the institutions jump on a bone this fast something is usually up! I show 14,700 calls at the June 120 strike trading in the firs 45 minutes! They’ve run these calls from $.75 to $1.35 already. DO NOT JUMP on the June calls yet, but the July love is building fast too!
    I show over 65,000 calls changing hands in these first 3/4 of an hour!
    Morgan Stanley raised target from $110 to $150 and WR Hambrecht took AAPL from $115 to $125!


  148. The Fed will say the same that ” inflation is the main worry for the committee and that the economy looks strong”


  149. I think the Fed comments will be dovish, basically saying we are on automatic cruise control. . .just my 2 cents. . will spark a rally.


  150. Wow it sounds dovish!


  151. ouch, seemed a little hawkish. . anybody thinking a selloff this afternoon?


  152. i took it as a little hawkish since risks are weighted to the downside. .


  153. Same old statement same old minutes but they are really concerned about inflation. Housing worse than previously thought but “contained”.

    Good news is there has been no big reaction so we can assume there is no agenda here (other than the expected flatline into expiration). More likely we get a late buy-in than a sell-off but now the big boys will more likely want to see the rest of the week’s data.


  154. No the Fed says the economy is weighted to the downside and acknowledging consumer beingg hurt by housing. Means cuts


  155. okay, i understand optiondragon, thanks.


  156. GRMN
    Out with .50 profit. Thanks Phil.


  157. FOMC – pretty funny, they’re not convinced core inflation is under control.
    --that coming from the guys running the printing press 24/7 :)


  158. it seems everyone got through the headlines already and we are back up


  159. Phil,

    what do u think about this article on MO
    http://retail.seekingalpha.com/article/36849?source=i_email&u=61982


  160. TIE – short-term resistance at $36, ATH is $47 but recent high is $39 if we can get past $36, they probably need a beat in July to punch through.


  161. interesting action going on right now. . .


  162. stocks going up and down like a yo-yo :-)

    All those big traders making millions I guess!


  163. GOOG lets see that 500!


  164. MO – I got burned on them at the last rumor so I’m just not into them.

    When I see a ton of people take a position my best bet is usually the opposite. There’s a fun trade of the July/June $75 puts for 0 which is XXX for 10 in the $10KP.


  165. MARKET- HERE we go!


  166. filthy oil stocks up huge even though crude negative. I just don’t think there much upside left even if the inventories tomorrow turn out favorable to the crooks.


  167. phil,
    please explain the ‘fun trade’ for the 10K portfolio more clearly, i don’t understand it.
    thank you very much.


  168. Phil
    what is the best way to remedy the OVEN Jul C 15.- close them or roll the over?


  169. windy buy the jul 75 put sell the june 75 put ithink


  170. Hmm, I filled one batch of MO for .25 spread because I made the mistake of hitting that as a limit and, of course Etrade takes 100% of any limit you set. Still the premium on the close calls is .60 so I feel good about it.

    I’m still buying puts, only now I’m buying the DIA July $136s for $2.20 (less hopefully) – this could turn into a great roll!


  171. Massive buy in progress!


  172. RIG & NOV very low volume.
    NUE- acting quite well


  173. AMZN might be ready to break 70. .it hasn’t seen that in a week.


  174. MO – hello phil – It is very interesting trade with buying July 75 Puts and selling June 75 puts.. how can we make money out of this fun play. Please advise when time permits


  175. sold GOOG Jne 460 puts


  176. These are and should be the true leaders of the market GOOG and AAPL, not some damn refiner or oil stock with baseless fundamentals. People coming to senses and realizing that we don’t make money selling oil to other countries :-)


  177. CRM
    jumped 3 points!!


  178. GOOG
    1/3 out with +28%


  179. MO trade – it costs nothing (well .25 for me now) and you are both at the same strike so you net whatever premium is given to the July calls on June 15th. Best case would be a run-up in price where the Julys would hold premium a lot better than Junes, in a stiff drop you would probably end up even. Risk is the .25 X 10 ($250) that I spent to get in plus, at worst, a similar spread getting out if I don’t have the margin to take them out on momentum. Best case is something like the current July $70, which is at $1.30 even though it’s $1.30 out of the money, if this were June 12th, the June $70 put would be worth about a quarter.

    OVEN – If I were going to “save it” I’d take my .20 loss and move to the Oct $12.50s for $1.60 and sell the July $12.50s for no less than .90 (now .98) if we break below $12.50 but I thought earnings were just fine so I have an offer in to DD at .20 and if that doesn’t work out by July 4th I’ll probably move to a leap because the company is only a quarter behind schedule but there’s nothing bad here for the patient.


  180. Just wondering if anyone put any gambling money on the INSP buyout rumor?


  181. based on the move, I predict the Nasdaq will close at 2600 today, going out on a limb, lol


  182. Wow, crazy moves!

    CAT at ATH

    FXI on fire!

    KKD on a tear – you know it’s a buy program!


  183. Funny how everyone views the meeting differently

    Tony Crescenzi
    FOMC Minutes Hawkish
    5/30/2007 2:39 PM EDT

    Minutes from the May 9 Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicate continued anxiety about inflation risks, despite the recent slowdown in economic growth.
    In no area of the minutes is there a hint at a rate-cut scenario, and there is even an accounting of an expression by some FOMC members of a situation that in the past has motivated some members to request an interest rate hike.

    In short, with its intense focus on inflation risks, the Bernanke Fed continues to behave as an inflation-targeting regime, with no interest in boosting growth until it is convinced that the inflation rate will fall to a more acceptable rate.

    More in my blog shortly.


  184. Out of calls:

    NE June 90s at $3.60
    NFX June 45s at $2.50
    1/3 out HK June 12.50s


  185. Phil – is BTU the new TSO with puts? Is it time for a DD on the BTU puts or patience? Your thoughts on STZ calls – no hurry on these items – thanx


  186. GOOG
    another 1/3 out, +32%


  187. SBUX- Is Green! Now that is a buy program. LOL
    ZZZ- nice play on NE!!!


  188. Out of IWM, QQQQ mo plays. Now buying some IWM puts for better GDP tomorrow. Bonds to test 4.90 again


  189. Is TSO pe really 4.78?

    thx


  190. Nasdaq – that’s a pretty long limb!

    Check out my KNOTs! That one was really bothering me.

    EBAY is back.

    YHOO still dead money taking out 2 of my July $27.50 callers in $10KP at $2.15. XXX

    BTU/other oils – not adding calls until tomorrow, tempting though it is!

    SBUX – heyyyyyyy, I like that one!

    Damn, S&P got rejected at ATH again – come on guys, buy some stuff!


  191. VIP- starting to run


  192. TSO – no, they didn’t adjust the calculator for the split but it’s still a respectable 9.5.


  193. Phil, YHOO buy to close trade : Is this for margin requirements or are you getting to be net bullish on it?


  194. CCJ-selling June 50 calls at $2.50


  195. FYI — re: BTU there was already one DD of the July 50s @ 1.15 on 5/25


  196. Split adjusted volume on TSO today is pathetic.

    MSFT up just 15 cents and INTC down 30 cents.


  197. Phil, “BTU/other oils – not adding calls until tomorrow, tempting though it is!” Calls???


  198. ANR – nice chart. Steam and metallurgical coal. Two very good markets right now.


  199. JOYG – this tells us what a scam premarket is with the MM’s painting the tape and trying to scare longs out of there shares. .this thing was down like 2% premarket. . Crooks. .


  200. Hi, new here….and have a dumb, newbie question.

    >

    This is a buy July and sell June, no?

    Thanks


  201. INFY – Covered my remaining shorts. I blinked! and no longer being greedy for it to go down further (target was $47-$48)

    CTSH – Looks like CTSH is in full rally mode. At least for today, not taking lead from INFY. Painful with the bearish Jun 75/80 Call spread initiated yesterday. If I didn’t have a position, I’d wait till tomorrow to think about it…


  202. Sorry….for some reason part of my comment was deleted. This was for the MO play.


  203. YHOO – a little of both as it’s a waste of margin but also it’s not likely to lay there with Google at $500

    BIDU is also going well, EBAY up .64, AMZN same old-same old… someone is bound to remember these guys at some point.

    CCJ – that’s a good sell as they are likely to hold flat into earnings.


  204. Optiondragon
    CROX- nice call on over $80
    OIH- smoking higher


  205. Oil – yes, that would be puts…

    Hi Joel! Yes, always good to include the symbol… It was buy the July, sell the June for roughly the same and hope July’s .60 premium holds up better than June’s does.

    Selling GOOG $500s for $8.40, hopefully not compounding the $2 loss I already took on the $490s (on the other hand the leaps are up nicely). XXX


  206. OMM question – I own 100 shares in my Scottrade account which I purchased for around $17. They will apparently soon be merged with Teekay shipping for a purcahse price of $29.25

    So Scottrade keeps bugging me about whether I want to take the $29.25 offer. If I tell Scottrade YES, then ST says they will CHARGE ME $25.

    Questions:
    1) Why on earth would I pay ST a $25 fee to sell my shares when I can just sell them at the market for only $7 commission, not to mention, that the market price is frequently 5 cents ABOVE the $29.25 TEEKAY offer price – around $29.30?
    2) Why is the market price of OMM a few pennies above $29.25, when Teekay is only offering $25?
    3) Should I just initiate the market order sell and pay the $7 commission? Or is there a still chance that a counter offer for OMM shares will emerge at higher than Teekay’s $29.25 offer?


  207. Newtons theory is really being challenged now


  208. Taking CFL off the table at $1.85, no sense risking this huge gain into tomorrow – just in case.


  209. All this action today and the semis are not participating


  210. AAPL – any idea if I should hold calls into tomorrow? Are we due for a pullback? Today’s gains are (too) fantastic.


  211. CFL?


  212. OMG, please someone explain to me what is going on with AAPL today?? I see news about no-DRM iTunes store, but can’t be that! That was known already.


  213. DIA 137 puts are at 1.50. Any takers?


  214. NE
    flying!!


  215. AMX & NIHD up 4%


  216. Had to take the money and run on AAPL.


  217. OMM – that speculation is what is keeping the price up but once the deal closes, you are out of options and may have to wait in some pool us uninstructed shareholders. This trade is over, you are very likely at the top and tying up $29 hoping for a fluke. You could sell and buy Jan $25s for $4.30, pretty much the exact sale price and free up $25 of your dollars to do something more productive with. You could also sell someone the July $27.50s for $1.80, pay that commission and let the whole thing be his problem but, since all numbers seem to work out to $29.30 – I’d say you’re spending a lot of valuable time over what looks like a nickel.

    Newton? You need Stephen Hawking for this, we are bending time and space here! I’m regretting everything I’ve sold all year at this point…


  218. GRMN,
    Is just smoking and with 13.6 million shares short it, I think it hits 70 shortly.


  219. FXI- do we think China goes higher manana?


  220. Phil, you’ve done an unbelievable job for the year better than 95% of other funds out there, if not higher.
    The Global party has already begun and its our house that everyone is storming!


  221. AAPL – MER upgrade to $150, someone else went to $120, IPhones might actually get sold which somehow is shocking investors…

    CFL – oops, CHL


  222. GRMN
    incredible!!


  223. wow. bullish, is that 1530 I see on the S&P.. .that close should scare some shorts. .


  224. DAVEO: I’m in for 10 DIA 137 puts, maybe we get a nice down open and I get out quick.

    Greg


  225. Wow – that was an intense session!

    Holy cow, they posted 1,630 – what a statement… Well, as Warren Buffett says: “Wall St. is the only place where, when the things people want to buy go on sale, they panic.”


  226. sgraham
    Nice stat on GRMN!


  227. Scottrade showing that the NASDAQ and the S&P closed at their high for the day. Unbelievable!

    Did I hear Cramer right? Sell AAPL five days before the Iphone comes out. Well, he might be right. It could be at MER’s 150 price.

    Jazz


  228. Phil, great site. been paper trading various picks not only of yours, but also other members. when you have time, i was hoping your could look over a trade you talked about back on 05/24. this was to buy the OIH Jul 160 put and sell the Jun 165 against. nobody really knows what the inventory report will bring tomorrow, but as a result of the little surge in OIH today, i see the spread is nicely profitable. so does the management of this spread based solely on my prediction of near team price movement? i know you are bearish on OIH as i see your only open position now is the Jul 160 put. so given your bias, i would think that you would manage the spread by buying in your putter to reduce your basis on your long put. as you can see, my understanding of this is rudimentary so i would love to see your thought process on this. thanks


  229. shoot. . was hoping TASR could close at 11 or above. .


  230. TSO – unbelievable ! Splits and goes $ 2 up !! Would have made so much money if I was buying calls instead of puts. Aaarggghh !!!


  231. phil,

    well, have we reached escape velocity yet?


  232. Wow, what a last 10 minutes for ERTS and WFR, both up .4-.5 in a heartbeat…..Sold half of the ERTS Jul 50′s for +38% and holding rest for a bit more tomorrow….I am the King of selling low and holding till REAL low :wink:

    WFR Jun 60′s at 1.45 and stock at 58.8…..not alot of premium to erode, but am unclear on the proper decision to either sell/roll into the Jul 60′s or to hold….and it’s p’ing me off that I am having this brain cramp!


  233. btw, ty Optiondragon for the book recommendations, am trying to sponge as much in as I can and if you are recommending the books, I am confident they will be excellent. You are excellent with numbers; do I detect a former accountant/statistician? :cool:


  234. CHICAGO, May 30, 2007 — The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) announced two CBOE seats, or memberships, traded for new all-time highs today. This morning, a seat traded for a price of $2,445,000 and this afternoon, a second CBOE seat traded for a price of $2,500,000. Both trades topped the previous high of $2,400,000 for a CBOE seat, which was set on April 30, 2007.
    :shock:


  235. Thanks Phil, gee someone still listens to brokers? I thought they only raise price targets after the fact. lol


  236. To all people bearish on TSO: you should know that it is in Marketocracy’s list of best stocks, meaning they expect it to double within three years. ELN is in the list, too.


  237. Thanks BBD! I have been following GRMN for awhile now. Hey I am also in the Big D.


  238. CLF-Cramer says takeover target with price at $100


  239. Apple Says YouTube Coming to Apple TV
    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070530/apple_youtube.html?.v=3


  240. NOVC – those MM’s are good.. .bought some NOVC around 3:00 p.m today at 13.13 since the intraday chart was looking bullish., put a quick stop loss in at 12.98 since I thought I would be in trouble if 13 bucks didn’t hold. . they took it down to 12.80 and of course the rest is history, closing at 15 bucks.. . boy that makes me mad, lol. . That’s what I get for putting a hard stop in like that.


  241. GRMN – Kick Kick KICK myself so hard.. well you cant win all.


  242. Wang’s World
    new post(s) up! Happy AAPL $100 Billion!!


  243. “Newton?You need Stephen Hawking for this, we are bending time and space here! I’m regretting everything I’ve sold all year at this point…”

    I second that statement….damn, sitting on a pile of cash waiting for a pull back thats not coming.


  244. FWLT – 10KP – I am confused – we bought back the $100 put – still holding the $95s ? – or did we just close the position …


  245. Kustomz

    “a pile of cash”….really not a bad thing, is it? More, and hopefully better opportunities tomorrow! Today was possibly just the start of the breakout.


  246. OIH – Yes I cashed out that June $65 way too early as I became overly enthusiastic about the drop. This is important to note about spreads, we often forget that we take these spreads to make just 25% and get greedy, turning the play from an investment into a gamble! At this point, I would certainly set a stop on the June $165 putter at $2 but once that stop is removed you would either need to sell the June $160 put on the downward momentum or treat your own naked call as a momentum play with tight stops. If I didn’t have time to watch it I would take out the putter AND sell half to reduce my remaining positions to less than half of my net profits at risk. Of course I still think this rise is way overdone and am only restraining myself from getting back into the OIH puts (my naked Julys stopped out yesterday) as I wait for inventories.

    TASR – Lots of orders from big departments coming in, they haven’t even gotten the French order yet and my quick calculation says they beat for the quarter but that won’t stop me from selling more $10s if the momentum turns down as I’m way ahead on the leaps and could use the protection (currently 1/2 sold against).

    We’ll know if we’ve escaped if we get another big pop up that makes little sense, that’s market weighlessness.

    Marketocracy – Double from this level?

    FWLT – I took out the putter and I don’t know what to do at this point. It’s tying up too much money to just leave but, on the other hand, it is massively overbought and could be a double if the market turns down, providing the only downside insurance in the $10KP. The July $95 puts are $2.70 and that’s not a bad sell unless this thing goes to $110 on us which, in this market, seems possible.


  247. DNDN ??


  248. AAPL…taking some gains on latest spike up.