On the whole it was a disappointing day.
As promised, we made very few moves as we were comfortably in neutral and willing to take a pass on the day but by 9:52 oil broke up and at 10:09, despite the early run in the Dow, I said: "As expected transports are dragging, RUT also not responding, NYSE not going green and we don’t get a real rally without them."
By 10:21 HOV made a 52-week low and that was enough to get me to call for a double down on our DIA July $132 puts. The Dow went up another 50 points from there, up 90 from the 10:30 low but we mainly spent the day chatting and watching until 2:30 when we took advantage of the spike in the Dow to roll our DIA July $132 puts into DIA July $134 puts for just .60 more (leap-frogging our July $133 puts), a move that was rewarded less than 2 hours later as the Dow gave up a quick 50 points into the close.
That was it, other than a quick early trade on SWIR and short play on X and OIH (caught the top at $170) we waited patiently, now slightly more bearish than we were in the morning. During the afternoon we discussed trading strategies, which all members should read until I have time to add the conversation to our strategy section.
So, on the whole, a pretty dull day in the markets but, obviously, the internals bothered me:
|
|
|
Day’s |
Must |
Comfort |
Break |
Next |
|
Index |
Current |
Move |
Hold |
Zone |
Out |
Goal |
|
13,426 |
1 |
12,468 |
12,600 |
13,000 |
13,500 |
|
|
2,855 |
6 |
2,825 |
2,900 |
3,000 |
3,250 |
|
|
1,509 |
1 |
1,430 |
1,460 |
1,500 |
1,550 |
|
|
9,841 |
15 |
9,218 |
9,465 |
9,600 |
10,000 |
|
|
2,572 |
-1 |
2,454 |
2,500 |
2,600 |
2,750 |
|
|
486 |
-2 |
477 |
490 |
500 |
560 |
|
|
833 |
-2 |
803 |
820 |
850 |
900 |
Crude did its part to kill the rally by sneaking back over $66 but was rejected there at the end of the session after gaining $1.21 for the day. The same 547M barrels remain on order in the 3 front months but now there are 231M scheduled for July deliveries to Cushing, OK (a facility that can handle about 40M barrels) and 213Mb under contract in August along with 103Mb scheduled for September delivery. It will be interesting to watch the shenanigans as we close the July contract out on the 20th.
The dollar held 82.73 and the 30-year note held 5.25, keeping gold under $660 and keeping pressure on commodities of all stripes (the steel sector plunged 5.3% as takeover talks fizzled), putting us in a pretty precarious global predicament. TXN was no help at all, narrowing guidance with a lower top, which led to a steep drop in after hours trading.
