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Wary Wednesday Morning

 

I'm going to miss the fun until the afternoon and it's 6am so here's my quickest take.

It's all about rates, if the 30-year breaks for 5.5% there's not much you can do to stop a sell-off.  Hopefully you have mattress plays in place and are not too worried about a nice, healthy correction.

I've been saying all year that rates and inflation would bit us in the ass and now you know exactly what that feels like and the real correction going on here is that the Treasury Market is finally recognizing some of the risk involved in holding US currency, which is not the best backed paper in the World.

If we accept that fact and move on, we can make much better investment decision and there are a lot of good companies we will be lining up as buys when this thing calms down but for now, let's focus on protecting ourselves.

First of all, this is a good time to be half in cash.  For one thing, they are now paying you almost 10% more for cash than they were last month when rates were under 5%.  The US dollar is on a tear and reflects that fact but there is a certain fallacy there if the dollar isn't keeping up with inflation so we have to watch the Beige Book numbers today very closely as well as Import Prices.  We also get Retail Sales, Business Inventories and the always exciting Crude Inventory Report and if they don't have the decency to let oil drop a couple of bucks at this point I think the energy roaches may be surprised at how fast this economy will shut down and trap them in some very expensive commodity producers at the front end of a recession.

It's important not to panic but to be ready to panicPreparing to panic means looking over your positions, thinking about your risk tolerance levels and what you are going to do when they are exceeded.  It would be great to tell you not to panic at all but, since most of us aren't professional firefighters or secret agents, we don't often face panic-inducing situations and when the Dow is falling over 100 points we have other things to worry about than whether our vodka martini is "shaken, not stirred."

Having mattress plays in place doesn't mean your virtual portfolio isn't going to fall, it just means it will hurt a lot less when it does.  Mattress plays allow us to hold our positions on a dip and save us from A PORTION of the damage that we would have taken, not all of it.  Right now we are looking for the Dow to hold 13,150, the S&P to hold 1,492, the NYSE to hold 9,725 and the Nasdaq to hold 2,525.  If these levels are not held, a little panicking would be appropriate:

US Markets

Asia did not do so badly this morning as rising US rates only bring us more in line with the rest of the world AND allow the Yen carry trade to continue – this has been one of the major global investment drivers for years.  Ideally we'd love to see a commodity slowdown here so it's not so much about if the markets go down, but about who will lead them down.  Both sides of the Shanghai caught a lot of buyers yesterday but Europe is unconvinced, selling off about half a point ahead of the US open.

There will be nothing to worry about if all we are doing is consolidating between the 50 and 200 dmas on the above charts but, if we do break lower, it's a long way to the next resistance point and it's very important that you look at your virtual portfolio and think about what you would do at 13,200, 13,100,13,000, 12,900, 12,800….  If you fail to plan, you plan to fail and all that!

We're well protected in our virtual portfolio to about 13,000 but below that we will need to make some changes.  Our $10KP will take a hit if we keep going down because it was the least flexible but jumping on downside bets today may be chasing a short-term bottom.

If you are not already well protected or just looking for some downside plays I like the IYR (Real Estate) July $79 puts at $2.22, the SPY July $150 puts for $2.28 and the very thinly traded XME June $62 puts at $1.07 as a gamble  but only if gold breaks below $650.

 

Hopefully we won't need them but those are the plays I'll be watching if I feel the need to add some additional protection to a well-protected virtual portfolio but it's human nature to hope things don't go that far wrong, even as the 10-year creeps up to 5.30% in pre-market.

OilGold

We NEED oil to take it's foot off the neck of our economy!  Note the declining 200 dma – if we can get oil back around $64, gravity will take care of the rest and that will lead to 10-point drop in the S&P we'll be happy to see!  ZMan will be dissecting the inventory report this morning.

Remember, if we are making a comeback, we have 400 points to go just to get back to the first week of June so it's OK to miss the first 50, even the first 100 points of a "rally."  Our post-it for today, which should be affixed to the top of your monitor where you always see it, should read "It is NOT my job to save the market."  Let someone else guess the bottom, it's a long way back to the top!

 


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  1. Phil, pulled up the SPY July 150 puts and the bid is 2.95. Scottrade has a bad number?

    Jazz


  2. Good morning. Did anyone find that their DIS July 37.50s changed their underlying ticker to HFW overnight? That happened to me on IB.

    Thanks.


  3. thedraz

    DIS 37.50- HFWGU on TOS


  4. DIS – same here draz….i use IB


  5. Dell up over 5% ah?


  6. DIS 37.50- HFWGU on Etrade


  7. DIS

    They sold their radio to Citadel. Something about a dividend being part of the transaction should explain the ticker change.


  8. Thanks, all…..called IB and the guy checked http://www.theocc.com and confirmed the change.


  9. Whether this is a bounce or recovery, use the opportunity to clean up your portfolio. The market is at minimum re-evaluating risk.


  10. RIMM

    any news??


  11. Good morning
    DELL is not up over 5% that’s a mistake in YAHOO as their closing is incorrect by a dollar


  12. Morning chaps…….Volatility in store today.


  13. Oh yes sorry now they are even more. Bad news for me as i am selling Jun 27.50 without a stop


  14. RIMM got an upgrade by amtech to $210.
    RIMM will be the hot news play today going into iPhone and earnings with this upgrade.
    alot of people follow this analyst and he has been money on his calls on RIMM for the past year.
    Looking at the JUN 170, 175 calls and July 185, 190 possibly. Rob Sanderson called RIMM to $120 when it was at $80 before one of their earnings and here we are again.
    MA looks good off the consumer numbers.
    CROX again.
    SHLD got an upgrade by Goldman but only a $5 bump from $195 to $200. Nothing big they also held thier neutral rating.


  15. Dell is at this second trading at 27.11, or 0.71% up from yesterdays close of 26.92


  16. Dell
    Thanks for correcting my correction must get some more coffee and calculator!


  17. Optiondragon
    Thanks for the news on Rimm. I will look to add some today.
    Gorilla trades added NMX on to it’s buy list. FYI


  18. JSDA looking perky this morning


  19. RIMM

    Good heads up there and just in case some of you do not know, earnings for them is 6/28.


  20. FCX and MTW exploding higher


  21. TAP is up 4% from an upgrade.


  22. Phil, you’re 2.22 number on the July 150 puts was right. Bad quote from broker.

    Jazz


  23. FCSX – anyone know this company and what’s gunning it?


  24. Joseph,
    All I know it is one of Cramer’s picks. It’s been on a roll for at least a week.


  25. FCSX

    Well they are supposedly growing at a very high rate because of the volitility of commodities. I’m sure the whole corn craze gave them a nice boost since companies need to hedge their bets. They report on 7/14 so they could runup all the way into earnings the way they’re going now.


  26. NOV, OIH took partials $ before inventory.
    FCX- took more Aug 80′s off the table. They were at $2.90 a few days ago.


  27. USU is getting taken to the woodshed. There’s a negative article about the company out.


  28. GRMN – up + $1.21 to $66.88.


  29. Happy
    Your thoughts on ATI? I got a note last night that it looks like a good short.


  30. GRMN
    still making new highs; looks like it wants to go higher!


  31. started a naked short position in GRMN OCT 75 calls


  32. MO…….

    Now that the dividend paid, both months have virtually no premium. Doesn’t look like it will profit on the spread.


  33. Who were we supposed to send an e-mail to if we were interested in the investment club?


  34. morning everyone, could someone tell me if there is an index fund that tracks bond. .I was thinking it was like TPT or something.


  35. Matrix- TLT


  36. investment club: send it to jared at: admin@philstockworld.com


  37. thanks optiondragon. . i’m adding this baby to my streamer.. .


  38. Matrix, also IEF, SHY depending on which part of the curve you want


  39. Dragon, remember the highly shorted equities we were looking at the other week. Fery few having a decent ride on the up days now. Seems as thought people are ducking the rubbish again


  40. MO…
    Agree. I’m surprised to see there isn’t any time value to the JUL side of this one while the JUN side is still holding 5-7 cents. Not sure how that makes sense.


  41. ZZZ
    You know anything about that find for COG?
    SWN- acting well before numbers.
    GRMN- look at my notes from Friday. Up nicely.


  42. don’t get it.. TLT at high of day and so is market. guess i’m reading it wrong??


  43. GRMN
    I’m in.

    ATI
    Well, we know ATI can run, but, better make sure that it is running first. Can’t tell from the charts right now.

    FCX
    looks to go higher!


  44. GS moving up.


  45. got screwed on the NMX June 130 calls (-0.8) that I sold against my Jan 135s. Covered it this morning. Looks like it is heading much higher.

    ICE down, still wants to pursue BOT.


  46. TLT is the leading indicator over the GOAX but it is all relative!


  47. Oil Inventory – how will it play?


  48. Matrix, reading it correctly. Bonds rally, TLT rallies. Yields lower, mkt higher right now


  49. Optiondragon
    MA- slowly entering, are you in yet?


  50. TLT higher is good for stocks for now. TLT lower means bond yields rising.


  51. Matrix read it right, bonds and bond yields move inversely together!


  52. NMX- there it goes $$$


  53. FMCN
    making some noise!


  54. MA looks great technically, its the market I’m worried about. No confirmed volume, that is an anticpation play. Read the volume bars as much as the chart. Volume bars will tell you to act, on any stock. Abnormal volume is a tip off on any equity.


  55. Rock – do you have link to that article on USU? -


  56. NMX
    got screwed on the early pullback also



  57. RIMM/MA
    both of these can go a lot higher today? What are you guys playing, BillBigD and optionsdragon?


  58. Optiondragon
    Yes that is why I am entering SLOWLY.


  59. happy,
    FSLR also


  60. FSLR
    jumping fast, new high!


  61. CFC down, market up…excellent

    TSO time to re buy puts?????


  62. Sold my TLT calls 30% up on this move…WOW wasn’t expecting that!!!!


  63. MA-exploding


  64. FLR
    very strong these past few days!


  65. AAPL – I know people expected more from their developer conference; but thinking AAPL is being pinned to $120 for expiration, after which it will most likely resume it’s upward march, at least in short term. Selling the Jul120 puts (~$4 premium) against my Oct.


  66. Nice BigD MA Jun 150 calls were a HR! MA is like a boxer though and loves to head fake so take profits.


  67. Happy I’m playing RIMM long right now. I like your GRMN play, went to west Marine the other day and GRMN was in front and center right next to the cash registers.


  68. Rock – thanks -


  69. MA- I played July’s, So you did better! Congrats. Holding OCT for more $$$
    OIH- took another slice off


  70. That was a crappy report. Sorry I was on the radio at the time. My minor TSO put position got crushed.


  71. NMX-gone on June’s Thanks Gorilla. I have Sept and Leaps


  72. GOOG/AAPL
    I hope they let these two run. That’ll ensure today’s bounce. Keeping an eye on these two.


  73. ZZZ,
    Once again you did well. But did you really say you think airline prices will fall? I’m not seeing it my friend


  74. Welcome Zman, CNBC reporting that gasoline imports coming into New York is tight thus the jump in gas prices.


  75. BillBigD: Is Gorilla worth the subscription & how do you use it in addition to this site?


  76. BigBillD--

    What do you have for Sept and LEAPS on NMX? I got killed on June puts.

    Thanks.


  77. WFR…time to play again as good move today.
    BIDU…Also looking at s/t upside as interest rate issues in U.S. also pulled down Chinese stocks.


  78. NMX continues to go higher. Good that I got stopped out of my short June 130 calls.

    ICE getting some encouragement with the run-up in NMX


  79. morning all!

    NMX-anyone know whats driving it up? high trading volume?


  80. GRMN

    I’m in on Garmin plays. Plus I just bought the 60csx so I need to make back the money I spent on them.

    AAPL – I’ll keep accumulating into positions on them sub 120. Looking at Oct. 135′s.

    RIMM – Starting to position up on them as well. Looking at Sep. 190′s.

    AMZN – I know I’m going to do something with them, just haven’t figured out exactly what yet.

    TAP – Sold my Jun90′s mo play from this morning. Nice quickhitter.


  81. MRN
    On Gorilla— Yes it gives me more ideas. They tend to take profits very quickly with selling 75% when it go up 10% (they are stock only) and keeping the rest. I think they give a free trail. Anyway this site is much better with complex trades.
    Draz
    I am long on NMX. Have been since right around IPO time. My Leaps are 08 120′s and paid off. I bought Sept 120′s a few weeks ago when it got crushed. As I knew it would have a run SOMETIME before EXP
    ZZZ
    Your thoughts on OXY?


  82. AAPL falling 117.5


  83. Google getting hit as well…


  84. AAPL -3.28%
    TASR -4.01%
    RIMM -1.55%
    CROX -1.1%


  85. AAPL – looks like I sold puts a bit too early ($6.2); but my short caller is hating it even more.
    CROX – wow, look at it drop. I’m long and waiting for the short squeeze to resume with stock split Friday.


  86. lots of negative stories comming out about AAPL ,reminds me of last December right before the trade
    show……


  87. MO spread – I’m getting a little worried about this one. Time premium almost all gone and the stock doesn’t want to go any higher. With 30 contracts of each I don’t want to get assigned so I think I’m out with a $300 loss. Any comments?


  88. FCX
    flying!!!


  89. MO – I’m waiting for tomorrow to decide, unless Phil counsels otherwise when he comes back. I have an 0.11 spread between JUN and JUL and have seen it turn positive a few times today.


  90. Sorry for the delay in responses, been tending ship at the other site.

    OxY – T Boone likes it, I don’t have a good opinion although you gotta think their chem side is going to be hur tby these high nat gas feedstock prices. They still probably go up

    BBD or anybody: did you get that GRP on my comments yesterday? Went from last place yesterday to first place today among the oih names.

    Gasoline: yeah, I saw that and it makes sense that NY supplies are tight. Better prices seen by taking tankers around Florida and into the Gulf. This also the reason for the “lumpy” imports of late. It’s very crowded in the off loading terminals of the Gulf. The smaller build in gasoline came as a result of increased blendstock consumption (ehtanol) which means the refiners are increasing their production.

    I’m calling the EIA today to get their methodology on utilization but its a CRAP number: gasoline production was UP again despite a FALLING utilization number.

    Airline prices: I was talking about ticket prices. You don’t see them falling? I’ll send you some email b/c I’m taking three trips and the prices of the tickets have gotten successively cheaper in the last month or so.

    COG – At first blush that news is all very solid. Good company though … I never talk about them for some reason but they’re great / smart guys. At the new high I’d be tempted to take a little for tomorrow’s gas number which should be bullish.


  91. HAPPY-
    CIBC predicting that the Canadian dollar will reach parity with the US dollar this year


  92. mike,

    AAPL – the only new news I see is someone found bugs in Safari already (but it’s in beta, not final release). Is there something else really bad?


  93. Half out CHK June $35 calls.


  94. AAPL:
    “The huge volume indicates that big players are probably already well on their way to scaling in” as of 11:55


  95. Z -

    do you still like CLR? I got in a buck ago but it’s a longer term hold for me so I was inclined to keep it, just wondering.


  96. Heh… bugs in an operating system ? OH MY !

    Gimme a break…


  97. Happy,
    FCX +8 in 3 days..What a great trade! I’m bummed I missed the run. When did you reccommend?


  98. RIMM

    There is a pretty interesting play here: Buy 7 JUL 170′s and sell 10 JUN 170′s. You create a delta neutral, with very little risk and theta works for you in a big way in the next couple of days.


  99. AAPL – Another negative point is the whole iPhone touchscreen keyboard, which is way overblown imo! No one is going to write lengthy text on such a small device and it simply won’t matter if the rest of the package is good.

    I’m more annoyed with the 3rd party apps solution, but that’s a software decision that can be revisited rather easily and might just be the first pass at opening the platform.


  100. Anybody have an educated guess on AAPL, RIMM, GOOG pins?


  101. DBC, commodity ETF could be breaking out


  102. RIG- took some off


  103. Biodiesel Chris – meant to talk about them on MN1 this morning but I blabbed too long.

    Yes I still like them. The 30 day waiting period is almost up since the IPO and you should see 2 or 3 analysts pick up coverage when it expires. I’d bet it’s very favorable coverage which normally you’d brush off as “yeah, so. they brought the deal” but in this case the stock came cheap to it’s peers, unlike that gassy PINN that came the same day and has done nothing but languish.

    About CLR I originally wrote back in mid May:

    * Enid, Oklahoma based E&P focused on the Rockies and Mid-Continent with a small amount of Gulf Coast reserves, founded in 1967.
    * Both management and science are seasoned and deep.
    * Technically proficient in horizontal drilling, enhanced recovery
    * They operate 95% of their reserves.
    * Reserves: 118 MMBoe, 86% Rockies and 83% Oil. Nearly all reserve adds in the last five years have been through the drillbit. This is a low exploration risk, resource play. While the preponderance of reserves are in the Rockies the company has substantial positions in several unconventional plays including the Woodford Shale.
    * Just over half of their current production comes from the prolific and vast CedarHills Anticline. Horizontal development with high pressure air and some water injection with very good results. Well density is low so there is potential to downspace the acreage.
    * They’re attempting to produce the Lewis Shale in both conventional sand and siltstone intervals but also unconventional in the shale itself. Results to date have been encouraging.
    * Production: 26.5 Mboepd 4Q06, 28 1Q07. Production visibility is good for strong growth through at least 2009.
    * R/P of 13 years which is likely to fall a bit
    * They’ve managed to shrink per unit LOE in linear fasion from 2004 to 2006. Unreal.
    * Fairly massive Rockies and Mid-Continent undeveloped leasehold.
    * Balance sheet is clean, and following this offering they’re probably a little under leveraged.
    * At $14.35 and with 168 million shares outstanding after the deal CNR is firmly planted in E&P midcap territory. Valued at a little over 5x trailing cash flow this seems very reasonable unless I’m missing something.
    * The CEO retains 71% of the company.


  104. KC
    re AAPL- nothing serious,mostly just nit picking stories


  105. zman:

    Some strong insider buying on KMR being reported today (actual buys on 6/11) all officers not directors, which I consider more meaningful. Any insights on KMR? Chart looks like it pulled back to touch a reasonable support level a few days ago. Thanks

    Greg


  106. BigD, playing RIG right now buying Jun100. OIH looks great.


  107. BHI, SLB, NOV, DO, NE


  108. GRP- ZZZ no I missed it. I keep forgetting to look at your site. Could you remind us like Happy does.
    NMX- Ok I know I will probably regret it but took some Sept I bought this morning. $2.80 gain Sweet trade


  109. Anyone seen any news on Crox or is this just profit-taking?


  110. zmann,

    CHK – Please elaborate what you just said ‘Half out of CHK $35 calls’ – These are calls you had bought and now sold (rather than sold calls that you covered)?

    Are you expecting NatGas to be down a bit more after inventory tomorrow? I too have calls that I sold against my long stock pos. and am deciding to buy back the caller at a small loss or let the stock go in the $36s…


  111. CROX only news is the director selling but i think it is just simple profit taking and options pinning.


  112. Bill
    CROX…news that director sells more shares. I had bought some puts yesterday, but closed earlier today as it moved up on me. My rational is…if look back over last 4 to 6 weeks, a lot of insider selling plus stock has run up awfully fast. I still may go back in for more puts if comes off low.


  113. AAPL battling at the 20 EMA in the mid 116′s
    If they can push it through they may try to take out the 115′s. The big sellers still have a push left in them if they want it.

    I actually DID put the sticky on my monitor today … “It’s not my job to save the markets”

    Think I’ll leave it up for a while.

    AAPL Maybe here we go


  114. AAPL 115.9 -4.39%


  115. ACH new 52-week high earlier today getting benefit from the copper surge
    CH ditto


  116. SWN- took some off


  117. Happy
    i am looking to enter AAPL again (stock position) Do you have any recommendations? I wanted to wait until 112 but it may never come in the charts! Thanks Henk


  118. XLE making 3rd attempt in last two days to bust thru 68.70 heavy resistance there


  119. ZZZ,
    What is that piece of land in Okla that you mentioned that you think will be hot for NG and oil?


  120. my guess is it would be a good time to enter a short positon on CROX if it trys to reach 92 bucks with a pump here during lunch hours. .


  121. $TNX – - know very little about bond trading, so I’ll ask – is there any chance that the recent parobolic rise was a short squeeze? — or, is it not subject to those types of moves?


  122. Hey Guys!


  123. Well, can’t blame CROX directors for selling some shares now and then. I think it’s just some profit taking after a helluva run-up. But I think they have more upside in them, so I don’t think I’d short them until at least after options expiration and then see what happens and how markets look. If the market does recover, and it looks like it just might, CROX could start another big run, and short squeeze, over 100.


  124. AAPL
    has come down 10 points from high. Intraday charts are bottoming out. I think if you want to enter on the long side, you should wait until you see it starts to go up. You can miss the first couple of points and still profit from it.


  125. WYNN
    above 95. Worth noting!


  126. MO – looks like the resistance is starting to break on the JUL/JUN spread. Finally starting to see JUN priced below JUL…first time in a couple days I think.


  127. Phil

    Your take on inventories. Seemed kinda strange. Why the low utilization rate ?


  128. BWLD winging upward


  129. NMX going gangbusters past 2 days huge volume!


  130. BWLD- also on my radar
    MA- optiondragon I may look to re-enter.


  131. Will RIMM be capped at 170 before expiration?


  132. Heck of an adjustment on Google and Apple.

    TNX – I think there was somewhat of a sqeeze when it broke 50 that took it up a point but if it says above 51.50 then it’s just consolidating for the next move up. Long consolidation was around 47 (note bullish cross that hit right there) and 5% rule was 49.35 and 10% rule is 51.70 and 15% rule is 54.05 but with tight movers like this we have to look at 12.5%, which is 52.87, which is pretty much what it’s at now. 52.45 is the old high and that got us a pullback to 50 last May followed by another run so we can’t get too excited if they come down a bit from a 15% run in 30 days.


  133. Phil, new news Ebay no longer buying AdWords from GOOG. Seen as bad for both.


  134. OIH a pretty good put on a failure of 171.


  135. Dang. AAPL 120 puts were money.


  136. FWLT is flying!!


  137. AMZN tanking..seems like they are taking down each leader one by one.


  138. Oil – I never saw the numbers and I missed Z on the radio so I don’t know but I could have sworn there was no draw in gasoline and a build in crude despite a rise in production so I’m bafffled. It looks like heating oil, of all things is catching bids (up 2.5%) so they are just using it as an excuse.

    I hope everyone realizes this whole rally is based on a very shakey premise that the consumer is unaffected by rates that were 15% lower when they took the spending data while oil may have held stready gas and nat gas went up so they are just setting themselves up for a major crisis at the next report.


  139. WB Phil

    Would you suggest DIA Jul 133 or 132 P’s for some mattress padding?


  140. Any predictions on PPI/CPI ?

    SHould be a lil hot I think – then again, I have a habit of counting silly things like energy and food…


  141. Not a whole lot of conviction in this bounce out there.


  142. Adwords – bad for Goog but was probably just wasting Ebay’s money (I know it wastes mine).

    OIH etc – I’m staying away for now, would tather have them go to some ridiculous levle and start another DD/roll cycle. With oil at $66, shorting is just not a good move. SU doesn’t seem to be buying it though…

    DIA July puts are holding steady despite todays gains…


  143. DIA – I currently have 200 July 134s and 100 July $133s, both about even. My portfolio is generally bearish or I would have more. Had the $134s come down to $2 I would have picked up another 100.

    PPI/CPI – without irrelevant food and energy we’d still better be down at .1% or everyone will go nuts again.

    TASR – no good rally goes unpunished with those guys.


  144. BBD – sorry, I try to double post but sometimes I forget. That won’t happen starting in August.

    KMR – I don’t follow the big pipeline co’s or utilities. That’s a premier company and their business should be booming. Lots of extra fees as their customers use pipelines as if it were storage.

    Phil – another bad utilization number (bad in the sense that it makes no sense) of 89.2%. Gasoline production actually rose yet again and hit my number of 9.3 mm bpd which is very high for any year. Imports were off a bit and demand was up a fraction and so we got an unchanged gasoline stocks report. If you average this week and last you get increases of 3.5 + 0 / 2 = 1.75 which would be ahead of expectations in either. EIA data usually straightens out over time but is lumpy week to week. Also, there was a big draw in blending components which should be completely separate from the main gasoline inventory number but it’s not. This means they’re getting ready to make more.

    Distillates were light as well.

    Crude was actually expected to be a draw and we got a tiny build.

    CNBC has been talking up heating up and the reason distillates were off is that indeed the high sulfur stuff used in heating homes was off big as distributors bit the bullet and raced to replenish their stocks.

    BBD – refresh my memory, when was I talking about OK land, not on the radio I think?


  145. CHK clarification – sold half my long call position. I’d bet gas rallies tomorrow. Imports were down again last week and weather was pretty flat. Anybody see/hear the expectation?


  146. Does the beige book release generally move the market in a similar magnitude to the Fed minutes release (i.e., is it generally a really big deal)? I don’t have a lot of experience trading around the beige book release and would appreciate any insights. I’m short DIA for the day, which is why I’m curious. Thanks in advance!


  147. wheat +5% again, seems like commods are the place to be !!!!!!


  148. MO spread – not looking good, need it to get back around $71

    Thanks Z – looks like I didn’t miss much.

    Beige Book in 25 mins… Depends what it says as to movement but more likely it will be uses as an excuse for a sell-off.


  149. GOOG – Something does not smell right with GOOG June contracts. The June 510 puts have almost no premium with 2.25 days trading remaining while the 500 calls have $3.5.

    Is this just a trading anomaly or is this going higher before expiration?


  150. ZZZ,
    No last week you mentioned some land in OKLA that you said might be the new Barrett.
    GRP- saw something on CNBC about a buyout in the sector. Did anyone catch it?
    Dow- rocking


  151. OIH — I cant figure out what a ridiculous value for OIH is really – somehwere in the mid-200s maybe ?

    Im overall long OIH — the play off 171 is a quick-hitter on price taking declining volume into pretty good 60m chart resistance at 171.

    On the daily chart it could be forming a head-n-shoulders perhaps — I listen to simple volume and support/resistance lines more than H&S patterns though.

    The overall OIH trade is gettin a lil tired – and hopefully will stay tired through July. Break of 165 on the downside or 171 and especially 172 on the upside would be key.

    Of course OIH is manipulated – but unlike CL at least it has some fundamental underpinning that show it as perennially undervalued.

    I also think the market has gotten over its fear of OIH being generally cyclical also – and this run could keep going.

    Oil under 60 would bring it down hard. Oil at 60 is about perfect for OIH.

    … all imho of course !


  152. QQQQ June $47 Puts slowly going up as is DIA Jun $132 Puts even though QQQQ & DIA is almost where it was few hours ago. Looks like the Puts are agreeing with Phil on a sell-off later today?


  153. Hey Z – whats your overall view on OIH ?

    TIA !


  154. IYR up pretty good on low volume. Perfect time for puts ? Phil ?


  155. Buying back GS Jun 240 caller for .50 (+10%) against possibility of jump after earnings tomorrow.


  156. Phil:

    While you were out Liz Claman mentioned that several traders on the floor had told her that
    they thought the refiners were playing games to keep prices high. Imagine that ! ! !


  157. Hmm Id like to see IYR break under 80 … seeems pretty certain, given overvalue of REITs and rising interst rates though doesnt it ?


  158. NYX – tickering below 80 bucks or will it hold? Beige Book might take it lower if hawkish. .


  159. GOOG – it just means there’s more bulls than bears.

    At this point you have to say: “what’s the beige book going to say that’s worth 100 points?” because we’re already up 57 so it would have to be SOME great report. The builders don’t think so, they are making LOD’s and our title group (FAF, FNF, LFG) have flatlined. They are flashing a thing right now that 2M homes may go under (1/50) to foreclosure…

    Here’s a bit of history for you:

    In the 1920s, in the U.S. the widespread use of purchases of businesses and factories on credit and the use of home mortgages and credit purchases of automobiles, furniture and even some stocks boosted spending but created consumer and commercial debt. People and businesses who were deeply in debt when a price deflation occurred or demand for their product decreased were often in serious trouble—even if they kept their jobs, they risked default. Many drastically cut current spending to keep up time payments, thus lowering demand for new products. Businesses began to fail as construction work and factory orders plunged.

    Massive layoffs occurred, resulting in unemployment rates of over 25%. Banks which had financed a lot of this debt began to fail as debtors defaulted on debt and bank depositors became worried about their deposits and began massive withdrawals. Government guarantees and Federal Reserve banking regulations to prevent these types of panics were ineffective or not used. Bank failures led to the evaporation of billions of dollars in assets. Up to 40% of the available money supply normally used for purchases and bank payments was destroyed by all these bank failures.

    Furthermore, the debt became heavier, because prices and incomes fell 20–50%, but the debts remained at the same dollar amount. After the panic of 1929, and during the first 10 months of 1930, 744 banks failed. In all, 9,000 banks failed during the decade of the 30s. By 1933, depositors saw $140 billion of their deposits disappear due to uninsured bank failures. [1] Bank failures snowballed as desperate bankers tried calling in loans which the borrowers did not have time or money to repay. With future profits looking poor, capital investment and construction slowed or completely ceased. In the face of bad loans and worsening future prospects, the surviving banks became even more conservative in their lending. [2] Banks built up their capital reserves, which intensified deflationary pressures. The vicious cycle developed and the downward spiral accelerated. This kind of self-aggravating process may have turned a 1930 recession into a 1933 great depression.

    Trade Decline and the U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act
    Many economists have argued that the sharp decline in international trade after 1930 helped to worsen the depression, especially for countries significantly dependent on foreign trade. Most historians and economists assign the American Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 part of the blame for worsening the depression by seriously reducing international trade and causing retaliatory regulations in other countries. Foreign trade was a small part of overall economic activity in the United States and was concentrated in a few businesses like farming; it was a much larger factor in many other countries. [3] The average ad valorem rate of duties on dutiable imports for 1921–1925 was 25.9% but under the new tariff it jumped to 50% in 1931–1935.

    In dollar terms, American exports declined from about $5.2 billion in 1929 to $1.7 billion in 1933; but prices also fell, so the physical volume of exports only fell in half. Hardest hit were farm commodities such as wheat, cotton, tobacco, and lumber. According to this theory, the collapse of farm exports caused many American farmers to default on their loans leading to the bank runs on small rural banks that characterized the early years of the Great Depression.

    ===================================

    And Congress is talking about trade tarrifs right now!


  160. SLB- ATH


  161. SLB
    not quite, I show 81.83. It’ll probably get there soon, though! =)

    FSLR
    on the other hand, 74+!!


  162. AAPL/GOOG
    going up!


  163. Beige Book – good growth, low inflation. Very bullish! Manufacturing up, corporate spending going up – if this is true we should be up 100…


  164. GS
    Phil, can you check out GS’s estimate on Yahoo? Comparing to what LEH did, is it too low, you think?


  165. Tariffs- good insight Phil


  166. Hmm took off some negative delta but looks like market might be waiting for tomorrow ?

    Id think we’d get a good rally into the close…


  167. GOOG $510s for .90 – taking now and selling if it doesn’t break $502 in 15 mins. XXX


  168. GOOG – Filled at $1, stop at .75, 1/2 out at $1.50


  169. GS – do you have a link?

    Watch GOOG at $504 but if it busts out there we should be good to go.


  170. Phil:

    Any idea on the MO Jun/Jul 75P spread?

    Thx, Edgar


  171. Not being a cynic, Did we expect the Beige Book to say anything apart from the party line?


  172. BBD – Ohhhhh – the Woodford Shale: NFX has the big lead there and then all the familiar names (CHK, EOG etc are playing to a lesser extent). PQ is the little guy there that could win big. Your boy XTO is also there pretty big when you consider they bought private Antero back in 2005.


  173. Course… VIX is takin a dump.

    Rally on !


  174. Dominic: here – have some koolaid ! quick !


  175. Not saying I’d chase here but I’d bet nat gas is up tomorrow with the inventory number. Man the GRP is running hard!


  176. BOOM is booming, might spark TIE.

    I see no selling, people are accepting the beige book at face value and we have to go with the flow for now. I will be rolling up my DIA puts to the next level!


  177. Sorry last post OIH. Overall I think it goes higher over the next few months. Technically it needs to break through $175 as there’s a lot of impatient money in the whole energy complex right now.


  178. ZZZ
    Thank you! I am long XTO. Where you going on vacation?


  179. wonder why mkt is falling off again


  180. QQQQ heading higher but AAPL and GOOG being pulled down. AAPL has to deal with this BS every options expiration.


  181. MO – MOROs have been selling at $4.90 and MOSOs have been selling for $5.20 so try to get that price for each side to work out of the trade.


  182. XLE 4th attempt to break and hold 68.80! if it cant bust thru and hold
    i dont think we can go any higher


  183. Phil: I have 20 NMX June puts NMXRE @ .25 basis. Any suggestions?


  184. Zmann -

    Yep – 175 is where my short july calls are.

    Im thinkin the next big push will be late summer/early fall in OIH — next earnings cycle should confirm a few things for those who still need confirmation.

    Id like to see consolidation and basing right where it sits now (but who cares what I want !). I /figured/ oil would come back towards 60 which would give me the consolidation, but Oil is being stupid and stubborn.

    Good luck !

    Someone on CNBC today called it in the mid-200s. Ahh one can dream…


  185. Phil could you be more specific on the DIA roll? Are you getting rid of 133′s? Are you getting rid of July?


  186. Now Fed Fisher feels it’s neccessary to call the Beige Book “encouraging”


  187. Anyone got that MO spread sold off today? I couldnt get a .05 credit for it all day! Not sure getting .30 is realistic.


  188. djczing

    - I think you see a move higher before that…first real blow that looks like it’ll hit the GOM

    BBD – Honduras: June 16 – 25.


  189. SNY – Looks like FDA advisory panel said something not so good. It ran down $1-ish in past few minutes. Anyone know details / opinions?


  190. NMX – sell 5 $130 puts for .95 – it’s risky but you can stop them out in a run as you only need to gain .15 for every .50 they add so you won’t fall too far behind (as long as you can afford to mess around like that). He will lose value much faster than you at this point..

    DIA July – $134s plus .45 buy the $135s, $133s plus .40 buy the $134s


  191. I bought back some calls but didnt roll up — CPI isnt til thursday, with PPI tomorrow.

    Whats gonna move the market tomorrow ?

    Is it possible our move up is gonna reverberate and come right back around and drive us higher again tomorrow ?

    I feel a little uncovered and wondering what the primary risks are.


  192. MO – I have 2 days, doesn’t hurt to ask.


  193. SBUX still down on a day like this my oh my love the coffee hate the stock


  194. Zmann – yeah I was looking at oil pulling back towards $60 keeping OIH down — and gulf weather later in the summer driving it back up.

    The chances of a hurricane repeating ’04/’05 are pretty small, but as you say – as sooon as one walks into the gulf, or maybe as soon as it comes off Africa itll spike oil. La Nina should pull em right into the gulf.

    Last year I bet against the crowd during hurricane season. I think this year is gonna be a lil more active.

    Tell ya waht though – right now I wish I didnt have those short 175s — OIH is smokin !


  195. DE Jun 115s running up on Kramer pump. Now up to 5.10. Got in at 4.60 a few minutes ago.


  196. That DIA posting of yours Phil has me baffled (and a first in a very long time, too)


  197. SLB
    BillBigD, there’s your ATH!! Congrats!!


  198. Market screaming!
    Oil services ditto! Cramer gave them a big pump


  199. DIA – I have the July $134s, they are at $1.98. I roll them into the July $135s for $2.38 at a net cost of .40. I have the July $133s, they are at $1.62. I roll them into the July $135s for $1.98 at a net cost of .36. To be even more confusing I’m not actually rolling 1/2 of my $134s since I was going to roll the $133s up to there so I, in effect roll half my $134s to the $135s and roll all my $133s at $1.62 to the $135s for a net of .76 but since I am clever I also sell first and then buy so I don’t actually spend the whole spread. Also, I have the Aug $138s protecting me, which is a good thing right now!


  200. ADBE – hello phil do you recommend buying ADBE calls/spread before earnings. Please suggest your picks.
    Thanks in advance !


  201. To quote the Staples button, “That was easy.” Thanks for the pump on DE Jimbo. Out now (let’s not be pigs). Now if only Phil could move markets like that :)


  202. AKAM
    looks strong!


  203. VIP/telecoms
    up 3+%!!


  204. ATI
    starting to turn!!


  205. Ha – AL says they are considering offer for AA! I predicted that ages ago…

    Miners coming off the floor.


  206. Just got on. Can’t read 212 posts to find out what is up with VCLK?
    Down .27 in this market!

    Jazz


  207. All of the BA buddies doing well today, espec the BEAV and TIE


  208. Oook… I sold some SPY calls…

    TLT rocketted. GLD weak…

    TIE nice – might not get a chacne to fill the rest of my position at 30 price support. Ah well.

    That was fun ! Thank you sir may we have another ?


  209. Jazz wondering same thing, will do quick exploration


  210. AAPL’s fate has been decided for the day. They will try all means to close at the lows of the day. Looking ugly.

    Phil, that 504 number you mentioned for GOOG was perfect. It tried hard to cross 504 several times.


  211. OXPS
    jumping!


  212. ADBE – I have the Oct $42.50 at $2.40, now $4.40 so my interest is protection and I sold the June $42.50s for $2, now $2.15. I do think they’ll have good earnings but I will be satisfied to gain a .85 premium on top of the $2 I’m already ahead. You could probably do well to sell the same $42.50s against the Oct $45s at $3.15 as it gives you another earnings to sell against and 3 months to roll up your caller in a good market. If it drops, you are pretty well protcected and can roll down and sell while you wait for recovery.

    OXPS still flying


  213. phil,
    yesterday you recommended YHOO july 27.5 puts
    are you still recommending that today?
    thanks.


  214. VCLK, can’t find nada, 8K filing on May 31 replacing CEO. Ex-CEO then named as COB, No impact there, maybe a lack of suitors on the horizon has impatient holders selling?


  215. NOV-BSC says $120.
    MA-played the July’s again


  216. Some guy on CNBC adamant that retail numbers are BS and says he consults for retail and the numbers are soft. I agree – the top of the market is boosting the totals and it’s not long-term supportive.

    As if it matters – oil had a weak finish, which makes no sense with the strong book.


  217. Out of DE w/~35% gain. Thanks Kramer!


  218. Using tight stops on GS overnight to protect profits – just in case. Too bullish to buy puts.


  219. YHOO July $27.50 puts? I don’t know, I say a lot of crazy things but I don’t remember that. I did sell the $27.50s against the Oct $30s in the $10KP but the easy answer is I don’t like the puts not – I’m not even happy I sold the calls at the moment!

    Rates are calming down considerably so let’s make sure we are neutral to bullish now – huge turnaround in everything but we still need to get through the CPI/PPI.


  220. yhoo – flying. I stopped out of my short july 27.50s. will re-enter when this rise stops.


  221. ADBE – Thanks a lot phil. I am in now.. do you have any recommended plays based on AA-AL news today


  222. BillP:
    How will stops protect your options since earnings are B4 open? If bad move, price could drop right through our stops at the open. I’d like to protect my gain, too, just not seeing a good way to do it.


  223. yhoo – something’s up, too much buying to be nothing…


  224. Tell ya what – I love to watch kudlows show – but have been trying to pin a perma-bull label on him for a long time — but he said it last night – higher interest rates are due to /growth/.

    And now CNBC is suddenly cheerleading again. They are great at following market moves. Itd be nice if they could lead market moves once in awhile (and coach Erin to not giggle every second sentence).

    Ok… I can accept Margaret Brennan or Diana or Becky. They can do whatever they want.


  225. are we buying that this rally is real ? shaping up to a big oldd engulfing candle


  226. GOOG so frustrating at $504! Market up 161 and they can’t get back to the open – come on!


  227. CCJ – July 50 Call is $3.80, a $1.60 premium. Good to sell against Jan 60 leap?


  228. Everytime I go to a meeting my trades get screwed. Yesterday I put in a trailing stop on my FXI puts and got yanked out on a quick spike, today I go to a meeting and don’t put in the tstop on my DIA 134 puts and now I wish I had.

    I really suck at this!

    Greg


  229. Yeah, Taxsniper, you’re right. Didn’t think about fact they won’t kick in off trading hours. Need to reconsider puts.


  230. On the GS I think Phil’s “sell half” mantra applies, looking to sell on this final spike. Sleep better. Probably hate myself in the morning, though.


  231. YHOO – my average sell is $1.70, which reminds me how far they have to go to get even so I’m going to hold them until we get those reports tomorrow.

    CCJ – when in doubt sell 1/2 is a good rule there. They might still run from here but that’s a very nice premium with great coverage.

    This rally is real unless the CPI/PPI knocks it out. The whole rate thing could have been engineered to flush people out of positions ahead of expiration (and boy did it work!). I’m glad to be in neutral as I really would hate to place a guess one way or the other right now.


  232. MRO, SU, XOM puts suffering. still holding?
    thanks


  233. SBUX can it turn green! only that will confirm the raging bull is back on!


  234. GS – if you sell half consistantly you will end up getting religious about it as it saves you a lot more often than it hurts you. Anyway, if you have a close call, nearly 100% of your premium will be gone at 9:31 so take that into account when you think about what they are worth…

    GOOG – finally!


  235. Bill P:
    I’m out on that last GS spike. GS will go up from here…


  236. Phil: THis is the second time GOOG has been the party pooper in my portfolio.

    The markets screaming and it just sits. Nice run from 460-ish, but I thought the 513 breakout was a pretty good bet and bought more… I have regular shares. Id have to delta down with puts if I bought calls — the options on goog are insane !

    Its consolidation.. gotta be consolidation… Yeah thats it…


  237. Phil – can you advise, please? I have EWZ JUN 60s short covered by a JAN 08 55. I could close the trade now (or tomorrow) for even money, but in the event EWZ goes above 60 and it looks as though I will be called away, how would you handle, assuming I would like to keep the leap and go forward with that.


  238. Zman--

    What about the FTO July 35 puts. Should we DD to cut our cost basis now?


  239. Karm, tks. Yahoo message board said Cramer was going to pump VCLK at 1500 on Stop Trading segment but it’s still down .19 so he didn’t pump it or the top market mover of our time has lost his touch.

    Jazz


  240. MRO/SU/XOM – for me, they were all long-term plays that will be dd’d and rolled.

    SBUX – that and WFMI

    GOOG green, can apple be far behind?


  241. Okay, hanging on to 1/2 GS calls (Jul 230s), buying 220 puts to cover remainder – making it a strangle.


  242. CHA $55 calls for $2.45 might be a good overnighter


  243. AAPL – looks like its challenged its 20-day line and rallied above it.

    I thought about buying AAPL whne it dove to /84/ and didnt… I hate me.

    Im lookin for a way to play, but im scared of heights.


  244. EWZ – assuming you intend to sell every month, it makes no snese to give that guy .45 for his call. He is .50 out of the money and if he hits $60.45 then your leap will be worth more, as will the July $60s you roll him to (currently $2.45). With 2 days left, you are taking a sure thing (the expiration of his .45 premium) and gambling. By the way, you don’t get called away, you never want to let a caller expire in the money on you – if you don’t have the function on your trading platform, you need to call your broker and tell him you want to roll the caller to the next month rather than just buy him out but you really want to wait until Friday afternoon unless the stock is going DOWN fast.


  245. Phil,
    MO – On 10KP, are we going to wait until Friday?


  246. Well today sucked. Any stocks I have spreads on rose like crazy today. And all my naked options went the wrong way. I wasn’t watching GENZ and it took off. Thankfully its down 1.10 in AH. Hopefully it stays that way. I sold the GENZ june 65s against the june 67.50s (left over from the successful spread with the may 67.50s). I should have sold them when I cloes the mays. My only chance is that GENZ tanks tomorrow so I can buy back the 65s at a small loss and then takes off again so I can reduce some of the loss on the 67.50s. Wish me luck.


  247. AAPL – Phil’s “scaling in” comments over the past couple days have been really helpful. Started with a couple OCT135/JUL135 spreads with a $4.25 cost basis. On today’s dip, I added a couple more OCT135s to bring the cost basis down to $4 for the spread. Hopefully, we’ll see some AAPL bounce going into the iPHONE shipping date and I’ll be able to sell off a couple more JUL135′s to drop that cost basis even more.

    MO – I failed the “brass balls” test today and sold out of the JUN/JUL 75 spread today at breakeven (less those darn commisions…gotta call optionshouse). I’m not familiar enough with the mechanics of having a put handed to me. With 20 contracts in play, I didn’t want to get into a real time training block on exercied puts with 10k in play on the position. Anywhere in the education section that provides more info on how it works?


  248. Phil--

    Is there any kind of worthwhile trade to create using DNDN Jan 09 puts? This stock has nearly killed me, and I would like to find a way to make it pay off in the long run.

    Thanks.


  249. Phil ADBE sell the jun 42.50 and buy the oct 45.00 the junes are inthe money are you goiing to roll him in two days ? I like the trade but want to make sure i understand. thanks


  250. thedraz – No. I would wait until tomorrow and go with the 40 strikes if then. I’m hearing key reversal stories on gasoline but in no way does this look like a key reversal to me. At one point RBOB was up $0.04, ending up only 2.


  251. Zman--

    Crud….since I didn’t hear back from you in time, and the market was closing, I jumped in and DD’d. I now have 8 July 35 puts at .40 avg. Any advice on how to fix?

    Thanks, again.


  252. Wang’s World
    new post up!!


  253. Heh … geez…

    Interest rates go up, the dollar goes up, oil goes up,

    Interest rates go down, the dollar goes up, oil goes up

    Im discombobulated.

    The bucko ($USD) at 83.,… wow… How can this let commodities/miners run ?

    I take it to mean that dollar, gold, oil, bonds will all be stable tomorrow as long as PPI doesnt surprise – same for CPI. CPI could rock our world more than PPI. Tomorrow might just be a free day while the crooks…err… MMs decide where to pin their favorite gravy trains. Friday is a triple-witch isnt it ?

    If I had to do it all over again, I wouldna sold the SPY calls — I woulda just taken the chance and stayed long for morning.


  254. Question: I cant get back to the topic from yesterday. Do you do that from the ‘dashboard’ ? I try to select it under topics from the dashboard and anything I select denies me permission.

    Any hints ?


  255. djczing, I have a link at the top of my page that takes me back to the previous posting. You can follow those links as far back as you want. Bill


  256. Any Canadian traders posting here? Just wondering how you’re playing the Cdn/US dollar risk vs US equities. Also, I’ve read about some low commissions at US brokers here. Any suggestions for Canadian brokers. E-Trade is the lowest I’ve found, but the website, trading platforms and service is limited.


  257. Sorry for not know my bonds. . could someone tell me difference between bond prices and bond yields.. also, when bond prices go down, bond yields go up and thus interest rates go up? Is that correct. .


  258. MO – yes, just have to wait but if you can put in a sell for a .20 or .15 spread you may as well ask!

    GENZ – that follows the ALL June calls need stops rule. Crazy move today, it was a good bear call at the time but when it crossed from .80 to $1.10 yesterday it violated the 20% rule by a mile. During options expiration week, if you can get out of the current month call even, do so! You can look at this play (assuming it stays up here) as a $1.80 spread that you can roll to the Oct $67.50 at $4.70 (+2.30 for you) and the Oct $65 at $6.15 (+3.90 for your caller) which would still end with you owing him $2.50 most likely but at least you will have collected another $1.60 towards it and you can always roll him again if we catch a good premium spread.

    Nothing in education about having a put put to you – check Stephen King’s writings (of Kafka’s with some brokers!). If you have a relaxed sort of broker it’s no biggie, you have agreed to buy 2,000 shares of MO for $75 and if he puts it to you, you get $140,520 worth of MO stock (at the closing price of $70.26) shoved into your folder with a -$150,000 (what you promised to pay) debit to your account. Some brokers will go ballistic on you but others will tell you you have a day or so to clear it up. PS – you also get the $9,600 that your putter paid you, since he exercised his option, free and clear so as long as you can sell the stock for $140,080 you will be even less commissions. Of course you also have the right to put the stock to your July contract seller for $150,000 AND your July puts are protecting your stock from any downside move so you can (assuming you and your broker can handle the stress) afford to see how the day goes as you might get lucky.

    DNDN puts – I’m pretty positive that your puts will be killed by ’09. If you already have them, selling the $7.50s is the way to go, you can always roll them. If you were a daredevil you could buy the ’09 $5 puts for $2.50 and sell the July $7.50 puts for .80 and, if you get away with it 3 times the rest is gravy. I’m off this one other than our July $10s but that’s a gamble I am likely to take every month and I will be picking up the Aug $10s for .30 when I can (and selling the Julys on a spike). At a .15 per month roll, one day I may end up with a 10 bagger so it’s fun to have in the folder.

    ADBE – that depends on earnings! The logic (for me) was that I am deep in the money on the Oct $42.50s and do not want to risk my $2.20 profit into earnings so I am sacrificing my upside in exchange for the $2 worth of protection.


  259. Thanks Phil for the bond info. . .Shame on me for not knowing more about them.. Always focused too much on equities. .


  260. Phil:

    About JSOB trade in $10KP, why wasn’t double diagonal employed?

    Thx, Edgar


  261. Cool — that’s a nice play on DNDN, Phil. Especially for those among us (like me) who are underwater in the stock.

    On a spike, the $10s will act as a “kicker” on the long stock and allow me to get out of the entire position, probably with a profit.

    For those interested, at the current asks, the July $10s cost $.007/day, the August $10s cost $0.005/day and the November $10s cost $0.004/day. IMO, the Augusts seem like a decent middle ground.


  262. This is of interest to all of us DNDN folks. Almost laughable..

    http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070613/nyw018.html?.v=99


  263. Phil – thanks for the quickie on exercise mechanics. I’m not sure that my relationship with OPXS has developed to the point where we’ll let $150k ride between us for a day or so. Combine that with my crazy schedule over the next couple days that will prevent me from babysitting the position, it leads me to the conclusion that, for me, closing it up with a little bloodshed was the right decision. For those still holding, I hope it hits 75 for Friday.

    Gotta say it…the learning curve around here is steep but well worth it. Thanks to Phil and rest of the community that make it work.


  264. That DNDN suit bums me out. At this juncture in the company’s life, lawyers’ fees are the last thing I (as a shareholder, for better or worse) want the company to be spending its cash on.


  265. thedraz,

    It’s just too far from the money for my liking and you’ll likely lose a week of premium waiting for the next report (and in the meantime, we could get an RBOB rally with oil over something silly like Nigeria). My best advice, and I won’t be here to see the action, is to not be greedy. Ask me again in the morning.


  266. I received a manufacturing order 3 weeks ago and have been working long hours but have the ability and time to day trade as well. Happy, Phil (everyone else) thanks for all the great trading ideas hope i can return the good fortune.

    LLL gets the contract..
    http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070613/20070613006163.html?.v=1

    Buying on weakness list
    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html
    Selling on strength
    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html

    Investment should spur growth in Africa.
    The International Finance Corp. (IFC), the private sector arm of the World Bank, said Wednesday that it’s investing $160 million in Celtel as part of a $320 million loan package put together with commercial banks and other financial institutions. (See Celtel Gets $320M.)
    http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=126450

    Western European companies will continue strong growth carried by eastern European labor..
    With a strong recovery under way in most of western Europe and with eastern and central Europe rapidly catching up with the living standards of its richer neighbors, confidence in the 27-member European Union (EU) is high.
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2007/CAR0613E.htm

    Exporters such as Toyota Motor Corp. also got a boost after the yen weakened to the lowest against the dollar since 2002, and the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey the U.S. economy is growing without stoking inflation.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=avXdUsKAS_Zg&refer=japan

    Oil traders were also on guard for a possible further escalation in tensions over Iran’s atomic program, with European powers telling Tehran at the International Atomic Energy Agency board meeting on Wednesday that it faced a possible third round of broader sanctions.

    The current rise in equity markets is all about carry trades and as and when there is unwinding of carry trades they fall. It’s the carry trades which is preventing gold, silver and other precious metals and base metals from a short term correction. Gold and silver are in an neutral zone but not out of the woods, Expect higher volatility top continue for the rest of the day. Gold, silver and copper managed to hold to their key technical supports and as long as they hold the same on closing basis, downside will be limited.
    http://news.goldseek.com/InsigniaConsultants/1181826360.php

    Interest rates rise metals head lower
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/Commodities/Weak_fundamentals_turn_metals_soft/articleshow/2121434.cms

    Companies buying back stock, great site
    http://www.investhelp.com/buybacks.phtml

    Jun 14 08:30 a.m. Initial Claims 06/09 315K 310K 309K
    Jun 14 08:30 a.m. PPI May 0.7% 0.6% 0.7%
    Jun 14 08:30 a.m. Core PPI May 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

    Keep an eye on solar pricing…Solar Module Price Highlights – June 2007
    http://www.solarbuzz.com/moduleprices.htm

    Alcan has signed a new long-term agreement to supply Airbus with a variety of high-performance aluminum products, including plate, sheet, stringer, and small extrusions and tubes, for the full range of Airbus’ aircraft programs, including the A380 and the new A350 XWB. Specific terms of the contract were not disclosed.

    PHILSTOCKWORLD one of the top 20 sites
    http://www.instantbull.com/
    http://bigpicture.typepad.com/