Woo-Eee, what a day!
I got back around 1pm and the markets looked normal enough and we were skeptical of the markets movement but at 2pm the Beige Book came out and I said: "Beige Book – good growth, low inflation. Very bullish! Manufacturing up, corporate spending going up – if this is true we should be up 100…"
Well, it turned out to be true enough for the markets to run with it but I remain skeptical – what really changed since yesterday? Trader Mike said it best: "As I said this morning to a friend over IM after the Dow had been up over 100 points and then gave back 50 points: “This market is insane!” Today was almost the mirror image of yesterday only the morning reversal didn’t carry the market back to the flatline. While *everything* was down yesterday, *everything* was up today. It was the release of the Beige Book at 2 PM that really got things cooking. Here’s an intraday shot of the S&P over the last week showing a lot of back & forth (aka confusion) between 1495 to 1515:"
Not to quote Mike's whole column but he also pulled an excellent article from Worden that said:"What is the market guessing right now? That is the right question. The market has stopped guessing and instead is letting itself get yanked around by a superabundance of self-contradictory news releases. Is that supposed to be something new? No, it isn’t. This is an extreme case. But there is no doubt that the market has lost its feel for where the economy is heading. Yesterday was an extremely weak day. Today was an extremely strong day. Was the market right yesterday? Or was it right today?"
Stuck in a neutral stance as we were there was really nothing to do other than pick up some Google $510s again, roll up our DIA puts and wait to see how high they're willing to take this thing.
|
|
|
Day’s |
Must |
Comfort |
Break |
Next |
|
Index |
Current |
Move |
Hold |
Zone |
Out |
Goal |
|
13,482 |
187 |
12,468 |
12,600 |
13,000 |
13,500 |
|
|
2,841 |
21 |
2,825 |
2,900 |
3,000 |
3,250 |
|
|
1,515 |
22 |
1,430 |
1,460 |
1,500 |
1,550 |
|
|
9,863 |
139 |
9,218 |
9,465 |
9,600 |
10,000 |
|
|
2,582 |
32 |
2,454 |
2,500 |
2,600 |
2,750 |
|
|
488 |
6 |
477 |
490 |
500 |
560 |
|
|
832 |
10 |
803 |
820 |
850 |
900 |
Reality check: We added no green boxes except the S&P. Before we all whip ourselves into a CNBC-induced buying frenzy tomorrow, let's remember we still have the PPI and the CPI to contend with and that the Dow was at 13,595 LAST WENESDAY (when Happy Trading called for some "venting") and the S&P was at 1,530 and the NYSE was at !0,001 – AND ONE, I tell you! It took the NYSE a 139-point gain yesterday to get within 137 points of where it was last Wednesday so let's just take a deep breath before we go crazy on the buy button.
Oil broke $66 again (Brent is $70) and the 10-year is at 5.20% after pulling back from 5.316% in the morning. It was at 4.7% 30 days ago, what the heck are people celebrating? The dollar cracked 83 for the first time since early April, when the rally started as the dollar dipped, but it was the crash of the Yen, saving the endangered carry trade that caused the 2/27 sell-off that really sparked yesterday's rally.
Higher rates here means you can borrow a seemingly unlimited supply of Yen at .5% and put them in our banks (or dividend stocks) at 5.25% for a nice little profit. As long as the Yen doesn't rise in value (or the dollar fall in value) faster than your interest accumulates, you get a very good return over time but the Yen is at what is generally it's bounce point (81.5) so let's keep an eye on that one!
The falling Yen is, of course, good for Japanese exporters (unlike US, they still make things that people overseas like to buy) and our TMs got a good pop yesterday and look ready to fly but let's watch our currencies please!
It's been a busy week so far, and I posted a Virtual Portfolio Game Plan on the members site:
|
Description |
Cost_Basis |
Bought |
Sold |
Dt.Sold |
Proit_/Loss |
% |
| 30 JUL 50.00 BTU PUT (BTUSJ) | $ 1,960 | 5/24 | $ 5,690 | 6/13 | $ 3,730 | 190.30% |
| 20 JUN 180.00 SHLD CALL (KDUFP) | $ 210 | 5/18 | $ 9,990 | 6/13 | $ 9,780 | 4657.10% |
| 25 JUL 60.00 TSO PUT (TSOSL) | $ 5,385 | 6/1 | $ 8,990 | 6/13 | $ 3,605 | 66.90% |
| 20 JUN 125.00 TM CALL (TMFE) | $ 510 | 6/6 | $ 2,790 | 6/13 | $ 2,280 | 447.10% |
| 5 JUN 95.00 WYNN CALL (UWYFS) | $ 560 | 6/6 | $ 1,690 | 6/13 | $ 1,130 | 201.80% |
| 120 JUN 30.00 MSFT CALL (MSQFK) | $ 3,010 | 6/7 | $ 5,390 | 6/13 | $ 2,380 | 79.10% |
| 20 JUN 120.00 X CALL (XFU) | $ 410 | 6/9 | $ 16,790 | 6/13 | $ 16,380 | 3995.10% |
| 10 JUN 510.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFU) | $ 1,010 | 6/6 | $ 13,990 | 6/13 | $ 12,980 | 1285.10% |
| 25 JUN 73.38 POT CALL (PVZFV) | $ 2,510 | 6/7 | $ 5,615 | 6/13 | $ 3,105 | 123.70% |
| 30 JUN 125.00 TM CALL (TMFE) | $ 610 | 6/6 | $ 4,490 | 6/13 | $ 3,880 | 636.10% |
| 100 JUN 30.00 MSFT CALL (MSQFK) | $ 2,510 | 6/7 | $ 4,490 | 6/13 | $ 1,980 | 78.90% |
| 10 JUN 550.00 CME PUT (CNMRJ) | $ 2,660 | 6/12 | $ 6,490 | 6/13 | $ 3,830 | 144.00% |
| 20 JUN 120.00 X CALL (XFU) | $ 410 | 6/9 | $ 12,590 | 6/13 | $ 12,180 | 2970.70% |
| 10 JUL 40.00 T CALL (TGH) | $ 760 | 6/7 | $ 1,240 | 6/13 | $ 480 | 63.20% |
| 100 JUN 47.00 QQQQ CALL (QQQFU) | $ 2,010 | 6/9 | $ 3,590 | 6/13 | $ 1,580 | 78.60% |
| 20 JUL 75.00 DNA CALL (DWNGO) | $ 5,610 | 6/4 | $ 9,990 | 6/13 | $ 4,380 | 78.10% |
| 20 JUN 25.00 GLW CALL (GLWFE) | $ 1,210 | 6/7 | $ 1,690 | 6/13 | $ 480 | 39.70% |
| 50 JUN 75.00 VLO PUT (ZPYRO) | $ 5,510 | 6/6 | $ 7,990 | 6/13 | $ 2,480 | 45.00% |
| 100 JUN 510.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFU) | $25,010 | 6/12 | $ 32,490 | 6/12 | $ 7,480 | 29.90% |
| 40 JUN 12.00 MU CALL (MUFN) | $ 410 | 6/12 | $ 990 | 6/12 | $ 580 | 141.50% |
| 10 JUL 42.50 QCOM CALL (AAOGV) | $ 1,410 | 6/7 | $ 2,140 | 6/12 | $ 730 | 51.80% |
| 20 JUN 65.00 GENZ CALL (GZQFM) | $ 2,210 | 5/31 | $ 1,790 | 6/12 | $ (420) | -19.00% |
| 10 JUN 170.00 OIH PUT (OIHRZ) | $ 1,010 | 6/11 | $ 2,590 | 6/12 | $ 1,580 | 156.40% |
| 20 JUN 110.00 X CALL (XFB) | $ 8,810 | 6/12 | $ 16,990 | 6/12 | $ 8,180 | 92.80% |
| 10 JUN 550.00 CME PUT (CNMRJ) | $ 2,660 | 6/12 | $ 3,490 | 6/12 | $ 830 | 31.20% |
| 100 JAN 2.50 SIRI CALL (OAJAZ) | $ 5,510 | 4/16 | $ 9,490 | 6/11 | $ 3,980 | 72.20% |
| 20 JUN 22.50 STZ CALL (STZFX) | $ 2,510 | 6/7 | $ 1,890 | 6/11 | $ (620) | -24.70% |
| 20 JUL 27.50 OXPS CALL (QYBGY) | $ 1,310 | 6/12 | $ 1,990 | 6/11 | $ 680 | 51.90% |
| 10 JUN 25.00 OXPS CALL (QYBFE) | $ 710 | 5/21 | $ 1,090 | 6/11 | $ 380 | 53.50% |
| 20 JUN 35.00 TXN CALL (TXNFG) | $ 1,010 | 5/18 | $ 3,290 | 6/14 | $ 2,280 | 225.70% |
| 7 JUL 70.00 AIG CALL (AIGGN) | $ 1,900 | 6/7 | $ 1,950 | 6/14 | $ 50 | 2.60% |
| 40 JUN 95.00 BA CALL (BAFS) | $ 8,010 | 4/26 | $ 11,390 | 6/12 | $ 3,380 | 42.20% |
| 20 JUN 35.00 TXN CALL (TXNFG) | $ 1,010 | 5/18 | $ 3,290 | 6/14 | $ 2,280 | 225.70% |
| 7 JUL 70.00 AIG CALL (AIGGN) | $ 1,900 | 6/7 | $ 1,950 | 6/14 | $ 50 | 2.60% |
| 40 JUN 95.00 BA CALL (BAFS) | $ 8,010 | 4/26 | $ 11,390 | 6/12 | $ 3,380 | 42.20% |
| 20 JUN 10.00 TASR CALL (QURFB) | $ 1,610 | 5/25 | $ 1,390 | 6/11 | $ (220) | -13.70% |
| 20 JUN 10.00 TASR CALL (QURFB) | $ 1,610 | 5/25 | $ 1,390 | 6/11 | $ (220) | -13.70% |
