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Wild Wednesday Wrap-Up

Woo-Eee, what a day!

I got back around 1pm and the markets looked normal enough and we were skeptical of the markets movement but at 2pm the Beige Book came out and I said: "Beige Book – good growth, low inflation. Very bullish! Manufacturing up, corporate spending going up – if this is true we should be up 100…

Well, it turned out to be true enough for the markets to run with it but I remain skeptical – what really changed since yesterday?  Trader Mike said it best:  "As I said this morning to a friend over IM after the Dow had been up over 100 points and then gave back 50 points: “This market is insane!” Today was almost the mirror image of yesterday only the morning reversal didn’t carry the market back to the flatline. While *everything* was down yesterday, *everything* was up today. It was the release of the Beige Book at 2 PM that really got things cooking. Here’s an intraday shot of the S&P over the last week showing a lot of back & forth (aka confusion) between 1495 to 1515:"

 

Not to quote Mike's whole column but he also pulled an excellent article from Worden that said:"What is the market guessing right now?  That is the right question. The market has stopped guessing and instead is letting itself get yanked around by a superabundance of self-contradictory news releasesIs that supposed to be something new?  No, it isn’t. This is an extreme case. But there is no doubt that the market has lost its feel for where the economy is heading. Yesterday was an extremely weak day. Today was an extremely strong day. Was the market right yesterday? Or was it right today?"

Stuck in a neutral stance as we were there was really nothing to do other than pick up some Google $510s again, roll up our DIA puts and wait to see how high they're willing to take this thing

 

 

 

Day’s

Must

Comfort

Break

Next

Index

Current

Move

Hold

Zone

Out

Goal

Dow

13,482

187

12,468

12,600

13,000

13,500

Transports

2,841

21

2,825

2,900

3,000

3,250

S&P

1,515

22

1,430

1,460

1,500

1,550

NYSE

9,863

139

9,218

9,465

9,600

10,000

Nasdaq

2,582

32

2,454

2,500

2,600

2,750

SOX

488

6

477

490

500

560

Russell

832

10

803

820

850

900

Reality check: We added no green boxes except the S&P.  Before we all whip ourselves into a CNBC-induced buying frenzy tomorrow, let's remember we still have the PPI and the CPI to contend with and that the Dow was at 13,595 LAST WENESDAY (when Happy Trading called for some "venting") and the S&P was at 1,530 and the NYSE was at !0,001 – AND ONE, I tell you!  It took the NYSE a 139-point gain yesterday to get within 137 points of where it was last Wednesday so let's just take a deep breath before we go crazy on the buy button.

Oil broke $66 again (Brent is $70) and the 10-year is at 5.20% after pulling back from 5.316% in the morning.  It was at 4.7% 30 days ago, what the heck are people celebrating?  The dollar cracked 83 for the first time since early April, when the rally started as the dollar dipped, but it was the crash of the Yen, saving the endangered carry trade that caused the 2/27 sell-off that really sparked yesterday's rally

Higher rates here means you can borrow a seemingly unlimited supply of Yen at .5% and put them in our banks (or dividend stocks) at 5.25% for a nice little profit.  As long as the Yen doesn't rise in value (or the dollar fall in value) faster than your interest accumulates, you get a very good return over time but the Yen is at what is generally it's bounce point (81.5) so let's keep an eye on that one!

The falling Yen is, of course, good for Japanese exporters (unlike US, they still make things that people overseas like to buy) and our TMs got a good pop yesterday and look ready to fly but let's watch our currencies please!

 

It's been a busy week so far, and I posted a Virtual Portfolio Game Plan on the members site:

 

Description

 Cost_Basis

Bought

 Sold

Dt.Sold 

 Proit_/Loss

%

30 JUL 50.00 BTU PUT (BTUSJ)  $  1,960 5/24  $      5,690 6/13  $      3,730 190.30%
20 JUN 180.00 SHLD CALL (KDUFP)  $     210 5/18  $      9,990 6/13  $      9,780 4657.10%
25 JUL 60.00 TSO PUT (TSOSL)  $  5,385 6/1  $      8,990 6/13  $      3,605 66.90%
20 JUN 125.00 TM CALL (TMFE)  $     510 6/6  $      2,790 6/13  $      2,280 447.10%
5 JUN 95.00 WYNN CALL (UWYFS)  $     560 6/6  $      1,690 6/13  $      1,130 201.80%
120 JUN 30.00 MSFT CALL (MSQFK)  $  3,010 6/7  $      5,390 6/13  $      2,380 79.10%
20 JUN 120.00 X CALL (XFU)  $     410 6/9  $    16,790 6/13  $    16,380 3995.10%
10 JUN 510.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFU)  $  1,010 6/6  $    13,990 6/13  $    12,980 1285.10%
25 JUN 73.38 POT CALL (PVZFV)  $  2,510 6/7  $      5,615 6/13  $      3,105 123.70%
30 JUN 125.00 TM CALL (TMFE)  $     610 6/6  $      4,490 6/13  $      3,880 636.10%
100 JUN 30.00 MSFT CALL (MSQFK)  $  2,510 6/7  $      4,490 6/13  $      1,980 78.90%
10 JUN 550.00 CME PUT (CNMRJ)  $  2,660 6/12  $      6,490 6/13  $      3,830 144.00%
20 JUN 120.00 X CALL (XFU)  $     410 6/9  $    12,590 6/13  $    12,180 2970.70%
10 JUL 40.00 T CALL (TGH)  $     760 6/7  $      1,240 6/13  $         480 63.20%
100 JUN 47.00 QQQQ CALL (QQQFU)  $  2,010 6/9  $      3,590 6/13  $      1,580 78.60%
20 JUL 75.00 DNA CALL (DWNGO)  $  5,610 6/4  $      9,990 6/13  $      4,380 78.10%
20 JUN 25.00 GLW CALL (GLWFE)  $  1,210 6/7  $      1,690 6/13  $         480 39.70%
50 JUN 75.00 VLO PUT (ZPYRO)  $  5,510 6/6  $      7,990 6/13  $      2,480 45.00%
100 JUN 510.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFU)  $25,010 6/12  $    32,490 6/12  $      7,480 29.90%
40 JUN 12.00 MU CALL (MUFN)  $     410 6/12  $         990 6/12  $         580 141.50%
10 JUL 42.50 QCOM CALL (AAOGV)  $  1,410 6/7  $      2,140 6/12  $         730 51.80%
20 JUN 65.00 GENZ CALL (GZQFM)  $  2,210 5/31  $      1,790 6/12  $        (420) -19.00%
10 JUN 170.00 OIH PUT (OIHRZ)  $  1,010 6/11  $      2,590 6/12  $      1,580 156.40%
20 JUN 110.00 X CALL (XFB)  $  8,810 6/12  $    16,990 6/12  $      8,180 92.80%
10 JUN 550.00 CME PUT (CNMRJ)  $  2,660 6/12  $      3,490 6/12  $         830 31.20%
100 JAN 2.50 SIRI CALL (OAJAZ)  $  5,510 4/16  $      9,490 6/11  $      3,980 72.20%
20 JUN 22.50 STZ CALL (STZFX)  $  2,510 6/7  $      1,890 6/11  $        (620) -24.70%
20 JUL 27.50 OXPS CALL (QYBGY)  $  1,310 6/12  $      1,990 6/11  $         680 51.90%
10 JUN 25.00 OXPS CALL (QYBFE)  $     710 5/21  $      1,090 6/11  $         380 53.50%
20 JUN 35.00 TXN CALL (TXNFG)  $  1,010 5/18  $      3,290 6/14  $      2,280 225.70%
7 JUL 70.00 AIG CALL (AIGGN)  $  1,900 6/7  $      1,950 6/14  $           50 2.60%
40 JUN 95.00 BA CALL (BAFS)  $  8,010 4/26  $    11,390 6/12  $      3,380 42.20%
20 JUN 35.00 TXN CALL (TXNFG)  $  1,010 5/18  $      3,290 6/14  $      2,280 225.70%
7 JUL 70.00 AIG CALL (AIGGN)  $  1,900 6/7  $      1,950 6/14  $           50 2.60%
40 JUN 95.00 BA CALL (BAFS)  $  8,010 4/26  $    11,390 6/12  $      3,380 42.20%
20 JUN 10.00 TASR CALL (QURFB)  $  1,610 5/25  $      1,390 6/11  $        (220) -13.70%
20 JUN 10.00 TASR CALL (QURFB)  $  1,610 5/25  $      1,390 6/11  $        (220) -13.70%

 

 

 

 


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