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Expiration Day Game Plan

This is my current thinking.

I’m assuming no great up or down move (ha!) between now and Friday but more prepared for a sell-off than retaking 13,700.   Of course I did say we’d flatline around 13,500, but this is a pretty strange way to go about it – but it’s been great for the STP and LTP as we crushed the positions we sold:

$10KP

  • DIS (8/1) Jul $37.50s - .26, now .05

I have no plan, very bad!  There was an elaborate save in the STP for the same position and if they $10KP is not all your money it’s a good save but otherwise, I have no choice but to ride this out.  Everyone is wrong about this stock and I will buy them again into earnings!

  • TWX (8/1) Jul $22.50s - .23, now .05

OK, entertainment may not have been thr right space…

  • DNDN (?) Jul $10s - $1.07, now .20
    • Sold Jun $10s for .87, now 0

Spread held so we are just hoping for a pop, will roll to Aug at some point.  Just hoping to get lucky

  • FIZZ (?) Oct $12.50s – $1.45, now $1.40
    • Sold Jun $12.50s for $1.45, now .50
      • If it doesn’t expire worthless will just roll, every sale is profit now.

Happy with these, even though the stock crashed it’s at my target price (which is why we sold the Junes).

  • FWLT (?) Jan $95 puts $8.20, now $7.50
    • Sold Jul $95 puts $4.20, now $1.90
      • Will roll to $100 puts, now $9.70.  Then roll $95 caller to July $100 puts at $3.25
      • Costs $1 to gain $5 in position, very good trade.

Shocked at how well the stock keeps doing.

  • GSK (7/25) Nov $52.50 – $2.75, now $3.20
    • Sold Jul $50s for $2.65, now $3.30

Just have to wait this one out and hope they don’t discover something.

  • JOSB (?) Oct $45s - $4, now $4.90
    • Sold Jul $40s for $4.80, now $6

Not worth worrying about, long time to go, Aug and Sept to roll to.

  • MO (7/18) Jul $75 puts – $4.40, now $4.80
    • Sold Jun $75 puts $4.30, now $4.80

Hopefully this will correct itself by Friday.  Premium on Sept $75 is .65 so you would think we could get a dime!

  • YHOO (?) Oct $30s - $2.30, now $1.50
    • Sold Jul $27.50s for $1.80 avg, now $1.45

After being burned and burned and burned by this stock, not looking to buy back July caller too quickly.

Long-Term Virtual Portfolio (Planned changes only mentioned)

  • CC (6/20) Jan $22.50s – $1.10, now .30
  • CC (6/20) Jan $17.50s $1.20, now $1.65
    • Hoping to sell July $17.50s for $1 against $17.50s only

Just trying to get even on this trade

  • LVS (?) Jan $80 puts – $2.05, now $9.20
    • I’m done with these, will stop out or possibly sell Jul $80 puts as mo play but mostly done with these

It was a good run but I’ve seen these guys jump before and it would be silly to let it happen.

  • XOM (?) Jan ’09 $75 - put $5.90, now $4.60
    • Rolling to $80 puts, now $6.40
  • XOM (?) Jan $75 - put $2.40, now $2.20
    • Rolling to $80 puts, now $3.70

Spend $2 and $1.50 to buy $5 in position – Priceless!

  • COF (?) Jan $75s – $8.10, now $10.90
    • Sold Jun $75s $3.60, now $5.70
      • Premium is gone, need to roll him to Jul $75 for $6.70

Last summer they were catastrophic so I’m not risking it.

  • FXI (n/a) Jan $120s – $3.70, now $8.90
    • Sold Jun $112s $3.95, now $5.95

This will only get worse, will take perhaps $2 loss and roll up to highest July I can.

  • ISE (?) Jan $45s – $6.10, now $20.50
    • Rolling to Jan ’09 $65s for $4.75 (rest off the table)
  • Sold Jun $65s .80, now .60
    • Rolling to July $65s, now $1.50

Really no sense in tying up that kind of money.

  • OVTI (?) Jan ’09 $15s – $3.05, now $3.90
    • Sold $15s for .80, now .60
      • Rolling to July $15s, now $1.05

They’ve been weak, not going to risk them naked

  • SNDK (?) Jan $45s – .35, now $5.20
    • Sold $42.50s $2.65, now $1.80
      • Rolling to July $42.50s for $2.85

Not taking chances as SOX have been pathetic.

There is no time in my week to write up the complex spreads but feel free to ask if you are in one of them.  Each one is like an essay!

 

 


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  1. Asia Markets : Thursday, June 14, 2007

    Japan*

    17842.29
    109.52
    0.62%

    Hong Kong*

    20867.26
    288.51
    1.4%

    DJ Shanghai*

    431.14
    -4.79
    -1.1%

    S.Korea*

    1769.18
    47.19
    2.74%

    India

    14196.99
    193.96
    1.39%

    * at close
    Sources: Dow Jones, Reuters


  2. Good morning
    Phil i take it GST and JOSB are still attractive trades to enter or not?


  3. GSK? Yes that one can still be entered but JOSB you are better off going with Jan $50s at $4.40 and selling Jul $45s at $2.38


  4. Phil

    Are you rolling up your SHLD Jan 08 200′s up to 190′ or so? It looks like SHLD is pinned at 175 and hopefully will pop up after Friday…do you agree? Do you see SHLD going up ? I have the Jan 08 180′s and thinking of adding a few today. I sold the OTM July 180′s on this. OK?

    NYX Jan 09 95….are you going to roll up to 90′s for a 1.60 today? I plan to do this as I think NYX is pinned as well. I have no sold calls on this and am planning pop before I sell OTM on these. thoughts?

    I have sold 1/2 calls on CAT and CCJ at OTM . OK ?

    I rolled all my BA callers to July 95′s but I am not sure if I should have or not.

    AUY 09 15 I missed selling against these the other day when you sold the 12.5′s to cover. Not sure what to do with these now…Do you have a thought on what AUY is going to do this next month aand how if I should sell against these ?

    Thx
    T


  5. SHLD – that’s a good roll but I’m a little disturbed by $175 so I’m not going to put more money in until I see something encouraging in the broader markets.

    NYX – same deal, these are good moves if we’re not crashing but if the market falls, you lose more money in your closer to the money calls so I want to have a better feel that the recovery is real (see wrap-up).

    It’s never bad to cover and when in doubt sell half is Rule #2.

    I have BA as one of my few naked calls right now but I will cover them quickly if we turn down. Usually they get a pop and if you sell into that it works out well as they rarely move $5 in a month.

    AUY – I left most of my gold naked as crisis protection, this one just had a good spot to sell at the time. Now it doesn’t and you might be better off waiting for a bounce in gold. As long as it holds $650 it’s probably just consolidating for a nice summer run and none of this impacts miners’ earnings to any great extent.


  6. Morning Phil, everyone

    I have a question which is somewhat different from the usual options trading question. If you have a chunk of money say 100K sitting in a money market account which is not tradeable where do you “invest” it? Do you just leave it there knowing that’s not cash you want to risk or do you still invest it but with protection.

    For example I could buy some muni bonds and be happy with whatever it pays, but at the same time I know I could be in a stock making better returns with some puts protecting my investment. What do you do?

    Thanks,
    Yev


  7. Phil
    i plan to invest in rubber or maybe the commodity. Do you have any idea which companies or tickers are suitable? It seems that the material will be in great demand within the next 10 years. A friend of mine is dealing in plantations in Asia and they seem to switch crop big time to rubber. Thanks


  8. Phil
    My jun MO puter has put his stock to me. What is the game plan?


  9. Phil,

    Just checked the account and I got assigned 1000 shares of MO on the June 75 puts! Causing maintenance call.

    I still have the 10 MOSO July puts, but obviously I need to address very quickly. SUGGESTIONS?

    Thanks,


  10. NMX

    nice jump!!!!!!


  11. Phil,
    I am new to this option stuff, I have the following,
    RIMM Sept $180s – $9.1, mow 10.1
    Sold Jul $180s for $4.50, now $5.5

    What should I do or should I wait till July expiration? Should I roll up or just buy back Jul call?


  12. DIS going up today it seems already up by .15 in Europe!


  13. GS-giving up all yesterday’s gains.
    BSC- missed


  14. Guess it was the right call to sell half the GS yesterday and buy the puts. And I was so sure it would beat! Well, it did beat, just not a big enough beat. So I live to trade another day.


  15. PPI – everyone still analyzing the “in line” numbers. 10-year rates going up? 5.23%


  16. Phil,

    What do you think about EK as an income producing play? Looks like this company is turning around.


  17. AKAM – breakout above a consolidation only AKAM could print. rubbin its 50-day – gotta go one way or another, expect breakout above 50-day – this thing runs a volatility over 40% and carries a high P/E. Its held well in the bad market and is showing signs of strength after an upgrade a few days ago.

    TIE – Apparently the fast money show said TIE was a buy last night. I didnt catch the show, this is word of mouth


  18. What is the sticker for the 10-year on Etrade?

    Thanks.


  19. for e-trade search “contains” tnx


  20. TIE finally taking off


  21. ZOLT is moving


  22. MBT-took 1/2 off
    FCX- ATH
    NOV-keeps marching


  23. Zmann: OIH… Hurricane ? we dont need no steenkin hurricane to hit 175…


  24. new post up


  25. NOV-took some more off 9 points 2 days
    NMX- ditto


  26. testing 123


  27. OIH: Rolled up short calls – held on to the 175s waaaay too long – but..but… my probability calc said only 30% chance of hittin 175 when I sold that strike…

    Phil: you use your 20% loss rule on the short side of the spread too right ? you dont hold the short strike depending on chart resistance or something to let it expire worthless ? I think you just roll up – thats what makes most sense, as it makes you take premium when the underlying is high — I guess what im asking is.. you roll it up when the short strike is @ a 20% loss ?


  28. FXI broke out to all-time highs.


  29. Phil, Henk, Gene,

    Same here. 1000 MO shares put to me from Jun puts. Now left long 20 July 75s and short 10 June 75. Wow there are some big numbers in my account!! :P