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Thursday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted June 14, 2007 at 9:54 am | Permalink (Edit)

LOL – if MO goes to $70.50 that pain will be a very nice gain! Make absolutely sure you speak to your broker, most likely they will need you to clear the trade today which means you should NOT be greedy and be happy to make .20.

Posted June 14, 2007 at 10:46 am | Permalink (Edit)

MO – turning back down on market strength. Be very careful if you are holding the longs and do not forget you have the right to put the stock at $75 by executing your July puts (but it will cost you the value of those puts).

Posted June 14, 2007 at 10:57 am | Permalink (Edit)

MO – you need to check with your broker to make sure you don’t have margin issues. I also just have the July puts now so I’m hoping to get about $5 and be done with this annoying trade. XXX

Whatever program kicked off that buying frenzy has stopped but it looks like people are just afraid to sell anything!

Posted June 14, 2007 at 12:41 pm | Permalink (Edit)

XOM, that’s totally different. Well this is the idiotic run in energy stocks I was hoping for but $67.50 oil is very scary to short against. I have the XOM July $80 puts too and since I have a $1.27 basis, if I spend $1.40 to roll to the $85 puts I will be in for $2.67 on a $1.92 contract that’s in the money by a few. Seems worth playing that way. XXX

MRO July $115 puts – I rolled those up to the $120s puts, which are down considerably too so I will spend another $1.50 to roll to the $125 puts at $3(ish), giving me a $4.15 basis and not too badly off. XXX

Posted June 14, 2007 at 12:50 pm | Permalink (Edit)

TXN, WFR – until there is a hard reversal, I’m willing to play them out a bit but $2 bucks for the WFR $60s is good money and we can always roll them down to the $55s if it turns on us so I’ll take that one on any weakness. TXN is the same, I’m hoping for a buck on the July $37.50s which is plenty to make in a month.

Posted June 14, 2007 at 2:00 pm | Permalink (Edit)

TIE – be careful, I’m liking my July $35s!

OIH – I’m taking the July $170 puts for $3.40 JUST so I can sell the $175 puts (later) for $1+, crazy premium for 8 hours!

Posted June 14, 2007 at 2:06 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DIS – absolutely if you can get 1/2 out for .10 even after that DD then of course you do, why continue to risk more than you intended when it’s been underperforming?

GM – $33.20 is my target but the premiums are ridiculous on the put side. I’m liking the Jan $32.50 puts at $3.50 with an eventual sale of the Jul $32.50 puts, now $1.15 if it breaks and holds $33 but I’m waiting for at least one break up with a rejection.

Posted June 14, 2007 at 2:34 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Sorry guys but I keep looking for things to buy and everything looks overbought to me. I’ll get over it if we confirm a breakout next week but I’m taking a time out to assess the situation. Last time this happened I was able to construct a bullish case for our markets based on a dollar decline and the inflows of foreign capital – both of those things have dried up and I just can’t get a read on where this money is coming from (oh yeah and no M&A this month either).

Posted June 14, 2007 at 2:57 pm | Permalink (Edit)

BSC just realized their quarter sucked and their up to their eyeballs in subprime debt that’s foreclosing at record rates! Have to take a chance on the $150 puts for $1.25 XXX stop at .95 out by EOD

Posted June 14, 2007 at 3:28 pm | Permalink (Edit)

BSC – not at those premiums but you can pick up $4.40 selling the July $150 puts and buy the Jan $150 puts for $10.85. Thats an nice enough margin to start with, for example 5 and sell 3, then add 2 and sell 2 as it moves down whenever you get worried about a turn. XXX Goal is to be short 10/8 unless it breaks over $150, then cover and roll up when you have to.

 


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