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Wary Wednesday Morning

The Fed begins thier 2-day meeting today but there will be no word from the governors until tomorrow's 2:15 statement.

Hank Paulson will jump in to fill the talking head vacuum with a 1:30 speech at a NY Investing Conference and we may get some hints as to the official spin on subprime so let's keep a close eye (ear?) on what he has to say.  Also from the Treasury, we will get the result of a $13Bn 5-year note sale where we should finally find out what those things are worth after seeing them bounce up and down over a quarter point in the past week.

We already got some bad news from the MBA Mortgage Application Index which fell 3.9% last week, a 4-month low.  This was expected by us as I predicted last week that higher rates would put a quick damper on lending activity.  Sadly though, the last time we hit a level this low was February 16th and we all know how that month ended!  Rising mortgage rates, falling prices and a record number of houses on the market may be scaring away prospective buyers, deepening the real-estate recession. A recovery will probably not take hold until 2008 at the earliest, economists said

It should be noted that this index was BOOSTED by refinancing – the purchase index fell by 4.9%!

[China's household bank deposits charts]While Chinese locals continue to plow their hard earned money into the Shanghai A-shares (up 2.6% today), the rest of Asia had a bit of a sell-off with the Hang Seng trading down 98 points and the Nikkei off 216 points for the day.  Money flew out of Chinese savings banks in April ($21Bn) and May ($37Bn) as investors there threw more and more of their savings into, according to our pumper friend from yesterday, the "irreversible uptrend."  The back-to-back reductions marked the first drops in yuan household deposits in six years, and stand in contrast to the period from 2000 to 2006, when such savings ballooned by 2.5 times.

Europe is down about half a point ahead of our open and is likely waiting on our Fed as well so we'll move right on from there.

Over here I think we may be heading for a more prolonged downturn as the SEC has turned it's attention to CDOs, which means they will persist in the headlines and provide a very strong downdraft to the markets (much the way the options scandals did with tech last year).  That means at this point a sharp drop would be preferred to a slow bleed that could go on all summer (although we'll make more money on the slow bleed!).  Responding to a question at a House committee hearing, SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said the agency's enforcement division has "about 12 investigations" involving collateralized debt obligations.

David Fry notices a subtle change in sentiment that has taken over the S&P and we'll be keeping an eye on this pattern to see if it becomes more of a trend, which would not be a friend to the bulls:

D Fry Market Outlook 27 06 2007_001

Durable goods were off 2.8% in May but April was revised up to 1.1% so things have been getting worse pretty quickly in the past 30 days (but you all thought I was nuts when I said the data sounded suspiciously good last month!).  This blew away consensus estimates of just -.8%.  Capital Goods (meant to last 10 years or longer) were off a whopping 7% with non-defense orders down 8.3%.  Defense realted order climbed 6.7% on our "troop surge" so thank goodness we were able to bail out our starving defense contractors while we continue to debate whether it's worth $20Bn to insure the health of 43M uninsured citizens.  

We should get a nice boost in this number next month as BA orders hit (Paris air show) but the ex-defense number was -3% vs. +1.2% last month, a pretty steep drop.  On the bright side this should finally help us take out the $67.50 level in oil.

If the market can't pull it out today on very solid retail numbers from NKE (32% jump in profits), positive IPhone reviews and great earnings from ORCL, then I can't imagine what the Fed is going to say tomorrow in a 2 paragraph statement that is going to make everything all better.  

ZMan and I will address the nation on MN1 this morning at 10:25 and we both remain cautious ahead of the report as last week may have been a timing aberration.  If there is follow through today with additional large builds, then we'll know our Gulf tanker speculators are finally giving up on the game and that could lead to weeks of pain in the oil patch but I'm actually eyeing more calls than puts this morning as some issues are shaping up for a possible bounce on the slightest drawdown (or Nigerian rebel attack).  OPEC has taken to threatening us to (and I am not kidding) stop trying to stop using oil – or else!

This is a clear sign of desperation from OPEC and they are paying the price for not hiring me when I offered to bail them out last September when it became clear to me that they were doing a very poor job of running their "lemonade cartel."

Gold continues to fall and the dollar stays flat so this is more about a slowdown in the global economy than inflation but the Fed will have to keep up the inflation talk because if they can't convince foreigners to keep buying notes we're going to have a lot of trouble funding the next troop surge! 

Telling your prospective investors that you are raising rates because you are concerned about inflation in your "overheated" economy is a lot better than telling them you are doing it to attract money before they notice your economy is falling as a flood of dollars flies out of the housing market, grinding your economy to a halt while your leadership has a spending habit that would shame Imelda Marcos as we continue to consume oil at any price and our Congress continues to grant tax breaks to the oil companies who made more profits last year than our entire deficit and half the political candidates paraded in front of us continue to pretend that raising taxes is the worst thing we can do.

It's no surprise then, that "the World's greatest investor" has decided to back Clinton.

 


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  1. “Underwriters pulled a $1.5 billion bond offering that was to be used to finance the purchase of U.S. Foodservice from Royal Ahold (Charts) by two private equity firms – the latest sign that the trouble in the debt markets could put a crimp in the recent buyout boom.”
    Saw the same headline elsewhere -that they “postponed” the bond due to market conditions -the bond was going to fund a KKR acquisition.

    Not a big headline, but it’s worth keeping an eye out for these things -if the LBO frenzy stops it’s a good sign that credit is no longer so easy to come by.


  2. CROX dropping like a rock at opening. What gives?


  3. blood on wall street!


  4. The blood is still only in the gutter it will be all over the street at DOW 12,500.


  5. POT
    **** what happened


  6. Buffet – Foresees a democratic President. Says he doesn’t want to “turn his back” on either Clinton or her rival Barack Obama. He says he’d be happy with either in the White House. That doesn’t sound lika a ringing endorsement for Hillary does it :-)

    (Even Mr. Buffet isn’t sure he likes Hillary :-) ….talking about fighting words)

    Back to the murky world of finances


  7. I will not buy this morning!!!! It is not my job to save the market.
    Happy
    FFIV- right back to where we bought it last time. $78. Sell at $86. Can we do it again
    CROX- silent downgrade?


  8. I told you guys Monday – watch for these M&A deals to unwind and know that the end is nigh! If you see them please bring them to the site, thanks rock!

    Who is NOT down, that’s what we need to look at today…


  9. Happy, STP taking off! nice call!


  10. POT/CROX… Money coming out of high flyers as people taking it off the table.

    Buffett – and certainly not a ringing endorsement for the Republicans. Will Gates be next?



  11. Big tech is working so far – AAPL, INTC, MSFT, SNDK, TXN…


  12. not bad, because once again oil and energy is getting killed. Goodness gracious imagine what it will be if the inventory numbers turn in mega bearish. Will this be the day, when the damn oil stocks collapse. Hope so.


  13. BBY – up 0.85. (But only because I’m short the july 45s)


  14. I figured Phil would have a permanent grin affixed to his face when I saw the TSO price yesterday afternoon and again this morning.


  15. Biotech holding in there – BIIB, GENZ, DNA all up


  16. Bought back AAPL callers (+30%). Will be watching for an opportunity to sell again next week – unless it has a big run-up.

    On the ugly side – CROX Sep’s (47.5) really hurts. Waited too long to cover. slap, slap.


  17. SU is a bit in denial. Down just 60 cents. I guess it will be very difficult to break down below 85.

    Even the almighty RSH is down today!


  18. From Drogon yesterday:

    HOC July 70 puts@.90, stock@73.62 – missed it (genius call)

    TSO July 57.50puts@2.15, stock@ 57.81 – damn, I hope you did that one.

    RIG July 100 puts@1.40, stock@104.33 – GAME ON, now $1.62 XXX

    MRO July 60 puts@1.55, stock @60.62 – missed it.

    FSLR July85 puts or 80 puts@ 1.55, stock@87.65 – I like the $80s at $2 (in other words on momentum if it starts to fall but not here at $1.52).

    “My favs yet to sell off are the ethanols and Agriculture plays though!”

    MON, MOS, AGU, POT, BG – All Brilliant picks by Dragon yesterday afternoon! I’m very sorry I put them off until today but BG is the most playable one left with Aug $75 puts at $2.05 XXX

    Great work Dragon!!!


  19. GRMN- took it off .8 gain.
    IOC- zzzz to you understand, what happen did they drill a dry hole?


  20. Happy

    Good call on STP. Island of green this morning!


  21. Phil,

    Just wanted you to know I sold half my TSO puts (finally this morning). Old habits die hard, but I’ve now yet another sticky note on my monitor reminding me when to sell/take profits so that I don’t have to tax my brain as much, especially early in the morning (I’m in OR) before coffee kicks in (LOL). Still working hard at becoming a better trader and have learned tons here; thanks for your/board’s patience.

    RHT – thoughts on these guys prior to earnings? I’ve Jul25s against Sep25s. It would take a jump of about $2 by expiration before I owe my caller anything so I’m thinking it should be safe to leave the Sep25s fully covered.


  22. ATI & TIE=ugly.
    Optiondragon must have a friend at CITI. Your the Man!
    Good call by Phil on killing the highflyers


  23. Thanks Phil I’m your junior analyst! Yes I own all except AGU, BG, MON, taking 1/2 profits on the refiners and POT.


  24. TEX & MTW -going out of business today. LOL


  25. STP
    out with +67%! still holding SEPTs.

    metals/biotechs
    metals taking a beating; biotechs rebounding… Out of commondities, into techs.


  26. Took profits on STP jul35′s at $1.55 (tight t-stop) nice over night 50%

    Thanks Happy


  27. OIH/CVX/XOM – Buy more puts before inventory report or after?


  28. Those STP’s are trading a bit thin. Blew downward through my stop and just kept dropping.


  29. Careful abt the oil PUTS. High expectations could trigger a big comeback


  30. So much is getting killed, I almost feel like im losing money being 90% cash!


  31. Very strange, both my July DIA puts have lost value! VIX coming down a bit too.

    BBY did a BBuYback.

    SOX and Biotech and the Qs are holding up, here’s hoping for some of that rotation.

    DIA July $133 puts active, tight stops on $135 puts (up 135%).

    Let’s watch that $67.50 line. Back below that and SU should start to slide but right now I’m watching out for an oil run.

    $10KP – time to roll down FWLT again!


  32. Phil,

    What’s the link for mn1(?) ?

    TIA


  33. Markets want to go up from here.

    mn1.com in few min?


  34. Hello Everyone,

    What does everybody think of SIGM, Up 1% and has remained flat for the past few days.


  35. Very interesting action -the TICK is practically pegged up at 1000 and yet the market isn’t hitting new price highs. Our good friend Dr. Steenbarger would call this inefficiency -if the extreme buying can’t push prices, then when the buying falls back to normal levels the market will come off.
    That said, it’s clear that we are short-term oversold, which raises the possibility of some real short-covering if we do in fact move up. Sumo wrestlers again…


  36. RL
    making a move!


  37. in on those VLO 75 calls


  38. Can someone review Phil’s plays from MN1. My Sprint BB sh*t the bed so on phoneline.


  39. I’m in on VLO 75, too. When do we get out?


  40. GOOG down $10 :-(


  41. TSO Jul 60′s XOM 85′s ??


  42. Phil/zman from mn1:
    VLO $75 calls @ 1
    XOM $85 calls @ .65
    TSO $60 calls @ 1
    EOG $75 calls @ 1.2
    b/a probably all changed by now


  43. That Yo on MN1 is a real numnut…..he must think you guys are Intel 4.9 ghz processors, asks you what the numbers mean 10 secs after they come out!! WTG both of you though for some muy rapido thinking and speaking however!!


  44. Aloha…

    CROX – holding Jan50/Jul45 spread with a 2.90 cost basis on the Jan’s. Looks like a good time to roll the Jul45 down to 40 for the rest of the month to drive the basis down to $1.45


  45. NM1 has the CEO of IXOG on now, after Phil & Zman. This guy is making you guys look great, because he is putting the host (and everyone else) to sleep.

    Phil, any way you can post before you do NM1 what to cue up depending on how the numbers come out? That way we could just hit the the buy button either long or short when you get the umbers and say which way to play it.

    It takes me too long to enter my orders after you mention how to play it and I miss the opportunity or I type so fast that I make a mistake and buy the wrong thing (like I did today)

    Thanks
    Greg


  46. CMI
    making a move!


  47. AAPL – headed down again. I think people are booking their profits from the recent run-up before Friday – just in case. There could be a big run-up Monday after 1st day sales reports – you know those are going to be big. Could be a good opportunity to pick up some (relatively) cheap calls before Friday release.


  48. Sorry been crazy busy – had emergency phone call then right to radio.

    What did TRMP do wrong?

    VLO – it’s a mo play, when you lose momentum you get out. The thing made .40 on 5 mins, that’s a good time to get out folks, that’s an annualized return of 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000%, if you have other investments that do better then by all means risk it but otherwise you should get out and improve your overall average. In my strategy section I say that when I make 20% on ANY trade I am, at that point, ready to exit for any reason. If you can’t have that attitude about short-term trades then you just shouldn’t be playing them .

    Stepping back for those of you still in the VLO, let’s watch the $73 line and if they can’t get back above there by noon they are toast. The trade can be balanced with the $70 puts at .90 and played for a very likely $3 move between now and 7/20.

    XOM is the same deal at $82, if they can’t break it then there is more pain to come. Obviously I have my longer puts so I’m not worried about the downside but .65 is very cheap for the $85s with so much time left and you can balance with very reasonable Oct $75 puts at $1.55 XXX

    Ineficiency – you also have to consider the window dressing effect with just 3 trading days left.

    CCJ – may have found a bottom.


  49. KC
    Thanks!
    CMI- something moving higher.
    CCJ- Phil does moving the Sept 55 down to Sept 50 make sense. Am Long the calls. No cover! Leaps covered by July 50′s which I am really thinking of buying back as they are up $4.5.


  50. CCJ- great minds think alike. LOL
    20% on a trade in a day SWEET


  51. I’m still liking the RIG $100 puts at $1.15 XXX


  52. Thanks for the VLO info. Actually, I typed as fast as I could after you mentioned it on MN1, but I got in at 1.35 and thought you said it might go to about 2 or so. I was waiting thru what I thought were the fakeouts, but I guess I really had missed the move by the time I got in.


  53. what happened to JWN?


  54. FCX- up a $1
    PCU- Sweet comeback.
    JOSB & RL up 2%


  55. I think Cramer and his flock are hitting the AAPL, he has touted selling 50% 2 days before Iphone release for almost 3 weeks now. Also, is probably just “coincidental”, but Cramers pay site aka Real Money at the Street.com, has an article titled “DON’T (emphasis added) ignore Iphone’s WiFi problem!”. His real bud’s are probably scooping up the lower priced stocks and options right now.


  56. BSC – mui macho – but why ?


  57. Phil and zman, you guys were great. They need to give you guys more than 10 minutes a week. Phil you should ask them for a half hour, to be able to go over other plays and the markets. You guys are much more than oil traders. Tell them that you already have a built in following and it would more than likely boost their hits and ratings on that site. You could be a Cramer Phil! You need a catch phrase though, instead of Booyah, how about Ka-ching!


  58. Come on guys – where are your “It’s not my job to save the markets” post-its? What great event just happened that everyone is buying again? I’m playing a quick bounce in oil but keeping long puts.

    EOG – by the way, I didn’t want to say so on Radio but I’m not too wild about those EOG calls since last week (when we made a very good put play) and I still think, other than hoping for a hurricane, that nat gas is a no-play. Z may have missed my comment at the time but I said sometimes the reason everyone bets nat gas is going down is because it is actually going to go down. I don’t see the record shorts as a contrarian indicator but I will get in on early momentum as it does mean there will be a hell of a squeeze if it does ever turn up.

    MN1 – its a big deal that we cross the line of 2 shows but the reality is they need to give us 1/2 hour from 10:15 to 10:45 to do a proper job of it. Just like any big business, there’s politics as we cut into another show and bump Dr. J or whatever – it’s amazing how anyting gets done in some businesses!

    CROX – I think the $42.50s are a safer roll. I kind of like them down here if the market holds.

    RSH – how dare you say fall!

    MN1 – good idea teeing up longs and shorts ahead. Now all you have to do is remind me for 5-10 times until it becomes a habit!

    CCJ – rolling Sept makes sense only if you promise to sell the $50s as a mo play next time it breaks down and not to just set yourself up for a series of losses. Up $4.50 with $1.50 of value left and you are not satisfied??? You need to decide now how much of your $3 in profit you are willing to lose in the hopes of making $1.50. Right now this is a small bounce but if it picks up momentum you will have trouble.


  59. Phil, you still like the goog 570s Sept?


  60. P – I saw your comment on nat gas and you may be right. EOG may be gassy but it trades closers to the USO than UNG 4 out of 5 days. I think it’s related to the fact that a lot of their growth has come from their Trinidad gas sales which are tied to bunker fuel (heating oil) prices.

    Took some more EOG. Took a position in HAL.

    XNG XOI, OIH hit my lower levels and bounced like a charm,

    Consensus for tomorrow looks to be about 90. I see it same, maybe 85-95. More imports but more heat may make it even with last week.


  61. VLO – I said it was at $2 yesterday so get out there for sure but safer to be happy with $1.50. I cannot stress enough how great it is to make 50% in a day. Even if you start with just $1,000 and you make 50% on that once a month and compound it, that’s $129,746.34 per year that you are throwing away by not taking 50% off the table! Of course you don’t bet that way but think of the aggregate effect of all those times you think 50% isn’t good enough and then you blow it…

    JWN guided lower and people are worried about the consumer but I’m not worried about their consumers.

    BSC – because they are only putting in $1.6Bn, not $3.2Bn to bail out one of their 2 dying funds. The bounceback is overdone because this isn’t over by a long shot but I’m glad it saved whoever it was that got caught selling those puts yesterday.


  62. Greg – that teeing up of ideas prior to the show is a great idea. Ditto Phil’s comments about reminding us 5 to 10 times. lol.

    HAL position I took is a Call.

    BillBigD – looks like their ELK2 is not containing the kind of gas they thought. They had hoped to build an LNG project around this so obviously that’s not good.


  63. btw, Z your listed as DR. Z on MN1 :wink:


  64. CCJ- I took the July’s covers off. But remember 1 hour ago things looked really bleak. I often buy back my covers to soon. LOL like my July 55′s last week. Maybe I am doing things wrong as I sell the covers when the stock is rising. Wrong? Gain of $4.5 on Leaps so that was a real nice gain. CCJ nows needs to go up. PLEASE! LOL


  65. WFR up 1.45 today gotta love it!


  66. GOOG – I can’t imagine I ever liked the $570s but I still like the $550s at $17 and selling the $530s for $11.65. What’s not to like? XXX

    ZZZ – what’s up with that distillate draw? Was it jet fuel?


  67. I was just re-reading the Cramer conversation where he described how to manage stock prices in his hedge fund days using PR. Feels like his AAPL conversation is simply more of the same.

    Last night’s news had a story about folks already lining up outside AT&T stores with tents and coolers in a couple big cities. Cramer doesn’t get it. For “the faithful”, owning an iPhone in the early days is about having an interaction with the design of this thing and having bragging rights that “I was there at the beginning”. Mac owners (ok I confess to being part of the tribe) have forever dealt with stuff like limited software, incompatible plugs/jacks, and yes…even higher prices for comparable technical performance forever. Why? I think it’s because Apple has consistently (including the iPhone) redefined the attributes on which performance is measured. Sure, everyone catches up quickly in the computer business but there’s a value to being the definer.

    Rather than simply doing what’s been done…and doing it incrementally better. AAPL’s focus on doing different…giving the consumer a new choice vector that they don’t have today. That’s a pretty powerful model that generates a lot of forgiveness for something like a Wi-fi softspot (if that’s even real). Short of some disaster like not being able to dial out, pure technical performance isn’t going to drive this for the next couple/three weeks. Long term…we’ll need to hear the consumer feedback on the tradeoffs to estimate that.

    Net…I’m betting there will be enough folks driven by the design, the interface, and the idea of being there at the beginning that all this “wait for version 2″ stuff will evaporate by mid day Friday and AAPL is going to get a nice bump over the next week. Not sure it will last but that’s a question for next week.


  68. rolling FWLT caller – what a good price ? – current spread is about $3
    Is there a good price in this situation ? How do you evaluate that ?
    I am tempted to wait for the initial excitment to pass as the 105 gained more than the 100


  69. Greg- great queing idea of long and shorts before inventories and then letting Z and Phil make the call which direction.


  70. FCX- still rocking.
    GRMN- sold to early. LOL
    DR. ZZZ – thanks! And I like it


  71. Phil, I assume by GOOG 550 @ 17, you mean the Sept 550s with the current 530s sold


  72. Phil & Zman: I promise to remind you both about teeing up ideas before next Wed Oil Numbers show on NM1. It would really help us, especially the dim bulbs like me.

    Greg


  73. Phil and Z, good job on calling the gas inventories at a draw, you really have them beaded. Your hypothesis turned out correct as refiners work to manipulate!


  74. WFR still screaming UP 1.90


  75. JWN – don’t see the lower guidance but see they are supposedly selling their Faconnable brand to some Lebansese firm. In any case, question about the Oct60/Jul55 play – with drop today, there is only 0.10 premium left in the Jul55, making the Oct60s free. Thinking of rolling down to Jul50s to get another .80/.85 premium. Or is it better to wait for a bounce and then sell the Aug50s for $2.50-$2.75? Thanks.


  76. I’m no DR, I just play one on the internet!

    Greg – how can you be a dim bulb and subscribe to PSW? Come on man!

    Distillates? – Not jet fuel, that demand was off again. I think it’s a restocking effect after the winter. Was a big number 2 weeks back as well. Of course you can’t look at on an apples to apples basis as the govt changed the rules for sulfur content last October and now their a lot more of the clean stuff and an appalling lack of the dirty stuff around. I’m not sure what oil burning people are going to heat their houses with this winter but I can tell you it’s going to cost a lot. There may be a play their with a long on SUN and a short on NE focused retail but that’s a long way off and people stopped reading this when I wrote distillates?

    Z


  77. Looks like funds are now rotating from tech to energy again


  78. WFR might just hit 60 today up 2.30 now !


  79. Someone refresh my memory – is it our job to save the markets ?

    This market kinda reminds me of pro football – where the receiver catches the ball over the short middle, and one linebackher holds the receiver up so another linebacker can hit him and dislodge the ball.

    Thats method 2 – method 1 is a max-closing-rate hit that lays the guy out.


  80. FWLT – what position do you have now?

    Oil direction – don’t forget the dreaded head fake! Ridiculous overreaction to todays report. They say this is “shocking” but last weeks 6.9Mb build was “a bump in inventory.” So ridiculous! Now they are pumping for all it’s worth but XOM and VLO broke my upside targets so we can only go witth the flow here.

    GOOG – yes Sept $550s/July $550s

    WFR – great call by Happy yesterday! Saved me a bundle as he made me put stops on my callers. If they break $60 they could be off to the races with the SOX.

    X is mounting a comeback. If the Dow goes positive the Aug $115s, now $3.80 aren’t a bad prospect since you can sell the July $110s, now $3.10 on a reversal.

    Don’t forget Paulson speaks in 1 hr 15 mins and it’s possible he will release prepared remarks so let’s watch for a sudden pop. DIA $134s for .38 make a fun momentum play as the $133s are .85


  81. MU – Earnings tomorrow and analysts too bearish in the past few weeks? Jul 13 options just $0.30 – a good play?


  82. My take on today’s action so far.

    The post 4 pm flush into this mornings open part of a big shakeout attempt.

    Since the open, the market has grinded its way back and forth to get where ? To where it was at 4 pm.

    From here, its anyone’s guess.

    I am still placing 3-1 odds on a post Fed rally into 2nd Q portfolio markups, possibly beyond.

    Not placing any bets just yet, however my forays into index calls on every dump has been muy profitable this week.


  83. Phil.
    Do you think NYX is bottoming?
    I got NYX 90 put (2009) cost $20.4 now 21.9
    Should I by NYX now and sell short term calls vs my share?


  84. RHAT earnings strangle overweight long $2-3 to $1.
    NKE acting well is a factor variable.
    buy RHAT July 25 calls
    buy RHAT July 22.50 puts


  85. SHLD – what is up with them? Down 5 days in a row. I have covers but ….


  86. WFR
    screaming!! took some profits, as high as 53% (and, still didn’t get the high of the day); I think this goes higher. They are focusing on solar plays!!


  87. dragon
    Re: RHT
    with the strangle play, you are buying calls at 2:1 or 3:1 margin to puts. Is that correct?


  88. FCX
    amazing!!


  89. Dragon--

    You mean RHT for Red Hat, right?


  90. Phil
    looking for cover of DELL 08/$30.- JUL 27.50 perhaps? Thanks


  91. CEPH
    you think they flushed out enough weak hands? Up 3+!!

    BIIB
    new 52-wk high!


  92. FWLT positions 105puts from the 10KP (or so I thought)
    BoughtNov / sold Jul


  93. Yes, Red Hat has earnings after the bell, the ratio should be in dollar amounts so $1000 on calls and $500 worth of those puts as an example.
    Phil any thoughts on RHAT?


  94. dragon
    thank you


  95. GOOG – I’m still trying to work into a trade you’d mentioned on Monday:

    the Aug $560s at $11.50 with the July $550s at $9.20 sold against them is a great play as earnings are Thursday 19th and the caller’s premium will go to 0 right away on Friday but, if he’s in the money, you will still be able to roll him to the next bracket that has a good premium. If it falls out of the money, even the Aug $610s fetch $2.20 so it would have to be a heck of a collapse to really hurt you. You can offset Goog calls with Q puts to a minor extent or BIDU puts for a more direct correlation as anything that hurts GOOG is likely to hurt BIDU but you can wait until the day before to buy the tightest BIDU puts you can get.

    By time I got filled on the Aug560s, I couldn’t sell Jul550s for $9.2 and have been waiting for a pop (I know, should’ve taken something to cover, as I’m down big on the Aug560s). Question is with your earlier/new play of Sep550s against Jul530s, does it make sense to adapt the one I’m trying to work into and sell the Jul540s instead at $10 (or more) on a pop? I realize the 560s/540s are farther OTM at this point compared to your Sep550/Jul530 play. Thanks.


  96. Hey Cap, can I cover 10% of my portfolio with those 3:1 odds? Pays better than my DIA puts!

    NYX/Anything bottoming – doesn’t anyone even read my morning posts? Really guys, I could save so much time if I just roll out of bed at 9:30 and only worry about the daytrades! 8-)

    SHLD – case in point. They’re down becuase the consumer may be dead but there’s a SOX rally because the consumer is going to buy a bunch of IPhones on Friday and someone just realized it’s made out of stuff other people sell. The other half of today’s rally (energy) is because the the system where average US consumer will continue to use 3x as much energy as any other industrialized consumer on the planet despite the fact that oil is $69 a barrel and home prices are falling and non-core inflation is rising will somehow never stop working.

    WFR – thanks Happy!


  97. Phil I read your comments I swear. LOL
    NYX- Why of all the exchanges do you want to weakess
    RL- sold July’s calls
    NMX- Finally Going the right direction


  98. NMX on fire all of a sudden!


  99. DELL – I would not cover them here. They held up well today and you will be trading potential gains for the month for .55 of premium. If it were mine, I would hold out unless it crosses $27.50 (not on a spike like this morning, which was such a classic flush) or if the market really starts tanking, then I would sell the $25s as a mo play as you’ll get almost penny for penny there.

    FWLT – those were rolled to $100s early this morning as the $105s ran out of premium but if you are still in the Nov/July $105s you can take it off the table for $5.50 net or roll to 2x Aug $100 puts, now $5.10 selling 2x the July $100 puts, now $2.70 (net $2.40) which takes .70 off the table looking to make about $350 more by July 19th. Rolling your caller down to the $100s is no longer a good play.


  100. Phil,

    Your opinion on sirf?? sirf seems to be oversold for now.


  101. CLB-ditto on Fire


  102. WFR
    you’re welcome!


  103. Zman: do you know anything about Harvest Natural Resources (HNR)? They shot up over 30% on 6/18 (I just now noticed). Now retracing a bit. Any opinion on them/ Options are lightly traded.

    Thanks
    Greg


  104. anyone ever have problems w/ OXP order execution? I found myself naked 10 DIA puts w/o enough $ in my 10k to cover (unlin ked to another acct)


  105. Dell:
    thanks


  106. AAPL- batteries no issue


  107. GOOG – the trick with diagonal spreads is that you want to buy your long leg while the stock is going up (as the short caller gains more V than you do) and sell the second you get nervous. If you forget why you entered a spread trade and try to “ride out a dip” you will die a horrible screaming death of position… In your case you got all the joy of buying into the initial excitement (Rule # 1a “Never buy into the initial excitement”) and not even the benefit of Rule #2a “When in doubt, at least cover half your position so you don’t feel really dumb later.” Of course with your naked call you also ignored both the 20 and 40% rule and NOW you wonder what to do. Hmmm…..

    I would leave the ones you have, buy an equal number of $570s for $5.90 and sell the $540s for $8. That nets you $2 and if Goog goes down $5 you roll your guy down (you need margin for that). If GOOG goes to $560 you owe him $20 but you are in the money (should be $15) on your calls and your $570s should fetch $10 so you will be in ok shape with a month to go. You can keep this ratio by leapfrogging your higher caller down for +$5 each time you roll down your caller for $5 which would mean anytime you get more than $5 additional from your caller you’d be improving your position. This is still a bullish play and you are in for, I think, about $4 which is about your risk in a total crash or a moon shot although he has a $20 limit to the upside buy you will make every penny over $570…

    NYX – not sure I get that. I love NYX.

    I see nothing very encouraging in most of these mini rallies on a stock by stock basis.


  108. HNR – I’d not go long. Kind of a complex way of getting paid. They’ve got a tentative agreement with the VZ govt to contnue to do business there. They’re almost entirely in Venezuela (all eggs in one crazy basket!) and as the guy who followed P and I on MN1.com this morning put it, the regime utterly lacks credibility so the deal may change.

    Just looking at the reserves post the Chavez deal (if they sign the docs without changing them) they will have about 44 mm boe of predominantly heavy oil. Put a value of $10 on it and you have the market cap of the company so it’s pretty fairly valued for the asset but not adequately for the geo pol risk.

    If anything I’d expect it to bleed off here unless oil goes higher. But like you said, it’s a spotty trader so I’d have to reject it as a play.


  109. FWLT : thanks Phil – I need to set my alarm clock early – it is the pb with the West coast , the advantage is that I don t need to be glue to the market after 1pm :)


  110. Phil, do you still like the RIG JUL 100 put? now .85x.95

    Thanks,
    Gordo


  111. WFR – I wish I had put stops on my short July 60s. Any suggestions on how to pull myself out of this one? I guess I could just wait this out, right? I always forget to apply the 20% to the short side.


  112. Sure Phil, call my bookie …

    MCO dumped early, nice strong recovery.

    The ALMOST daily oil pump into Nymex close now in progress. They took the day off yesterday.


  113. SIRF – NOTHING is oversold until we get to 11,500! NOTHING is rallying until it gets back to where it was on MONDAY (and CLB has).

    Our educational article for the week will be “Studying the 2 minute Chart”. I don’t want to go crazy and talk about the 5 minute chart as the 2 minute chart is already double what most of you guys must look at all day so we’ll take it easy from there and work our way up (how many of you guys know what that “D” means on a chart? Hint – it isn’t “Don’t ever look at this trend”).

    CLB raised outlook last night and reversed a nasty downtrend but the guidance raise was .08 and they were already expected to do .40 better than last year’s .70 and the stock is already up from $55 at this time last year when .70 was a 20% upsider surprise. I’d have to call a spike to an ATH while the OIH is looking tired to be a bit of an overreaction. CLB is a great company but their p/e is almost double the group and they are debt heavy with fairly poor cash flow. I’m hoping they take a stab at $100 and get it out of their system but the Aug $90 puts are tempting at $1.25.

    OXP – you need to execute linked but that’s odd with DIA because they are fairly liquid.


  114. Looks like Paulson comments went over well. What were they? Volume remains light.


  115. OIH didn’t break the downtrend. It hit my level from this moring and bounced. If you going to short pieces of it short those with shallow water drilling exposure and be careful shorting the those with deepwater capacity (like a RIG) as they’re booked up for at least the next two years as deepwater projects around the world offer the greatest growth opportunities. Just my 2cents.


  116. GOOG – You should have a salutation of Dr as well, since you so often help make things better for others. Yup, screwed up this trade; was focusing on other trades at the time and just left the order to sell the Jul550s w/o closely monitoring until it was too late. In addition to feeling dumb, I am now subject to public humiliation as well LOL. All kidding aside, your help is definitely appreciated.


  117. Zman, Phil --

    Sounds like you have differing views of the RIG 100 puts, which, naturally, I’m in!

    Whither goest us/youse guys on these?


  118. WFR – has been consistent the last 3 months with $1-$2 price swings during the day and a 2 week period in each month when the price has dropped as much as 20%.

    Intraday – Buying the 60 calls and switching to the 60 puts intra day by monitoring the time of day has worked almost 80% of the time for me. (Am now documenting specific times, day of week and overall market movement to be able to statistically prove the patterns I am seeing) Today for example the stock has swung $3.51 already today. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it close around $59 from the 60.80 it is now.

    ST Calls and Puts – Buying the next mos 55′s during the two week dip period has been very profitable at 10% of position entries. Today was most fortunate for me on the Jul 60′s….started acquiring too soon in the monthly price cycle so continued entering to decrease cost basis and ended up with the WFR 60′s being close to 25% of my total portfolio (broke the 10% of portfolio position rule big time). Ended up selling 80% of my total 60′s for +30%, but yesterday’s close it was almost -20%. Bottom line: Have to be patient for the buy-in (which I wasn’t) and then have some Tums handy waiting for the bump up. I have some 60′s sitting at an Ask of 3.20 and might just get it with this rocketship today!


  119. What do you think about the news stories coming across today (Financial Times, CNBC) about the Fed moving focus away from core inflation to headline inflation. Obviously that would be hawkish if it comes about, but I’m not sure the goal of the stories today isn’t to suck in sellers. I (and Cap as well it looks like) have the feeling that we’re going to blast off on the Fed decision tomorrow.


  120. NYX- my comment was that it has underpreform the other exchanges. I will keep my money in the others was my point.
    OIH- down only less then 3% from ATH, might be early to call it tired IMO


  121. LOL KFat – that claw to the Brain move speaks wonders all by itself – my daughter does that when she can’t spell something and she wants to blame her “stupid brain”

    RIG – yes I’ve got a round here (.90) but someone is coming in and buying them up again so I’m a bit concerned now.

    WWE – I don’t know if anyone follows this nonsense but someone should investigate the fact that the Chairman was just declared dead by them and then, right after some bizzare murder suicide sacrifices a wresteler and his family, McMahon mysteriously springs back to life. All seems sort of Satanic to me!

    WFR – at no point in today’s $3 run did you feel the urge to change that position? I imagine you’re not too far from even and there’s still a lot of premium in the contracts so you can just say they are just about where we thought they’d be when we initiated them a couple of weeks ago. At this point, ahead of the Fed and with no $62.50s, I’d keep the insurance. I’ll be putting mine back on at least half (when in doubt) by EOD.

    Oil – my rule of thumb is that if SU gains less than 75% of what oil does, I don’t buy the rally.


  122. Phil,

    I must be doing really well then, I use a 3 minute chart! Doesn’t a D on a chart stand for DON’T? :mrgreen:


  123. GRMN
    74+!!


  124. Wow oil service stocks are flying!


  125. Rig – I didn’t say I’d go long here. It’s up a lot and it could have a several down $3 days easily without denting it. I just think it will be more bouyant than the rest of the OIH which I see holding 170 and eventually breaking higher.

    Remember that if nat gas gets much lower Aubrey at CHK and some of his pals will start making production curtailment announcments. Natural gas is trading below $2 /mcf in some parts of the Rockies so it’s an easy announcement to make and last year it really rallied gas so I expect they haven’t forgotten how to write the PR!

    SU – that’s a good rule.


  126. WFR – no day trading today for me due to double secret probation issues, but Yes I would have thought the run was over several times and prob would have been brkeven today, but that’s why it’s only an 80% claim too.


  127. WWE- Phil it was a storyline everyone knew he wasn’t dead. The real murders put a end to the storyline.
    Kind of sad how the guy snapped.
    Dow moving GREEN


  128. Got out of some TSO leap puts. Bought some TSO July 57.5 calls. EOG calls on Z’s reco on MN1 along with VLO calls. Tight stops in place.


  129. anyone bet RIMM ER?


  130. NKE
    Air Force Nike taking off! See article from last night on Wang’s World! =)

    VCLK
    making a move!


  131. Phil,
    Good call for T yesterday


  132. Steroid/vicadine/amphetamine cocktails can be quite detrimental to one’s thought processes it appears. Now the steroid and wrestler media blitz occurs until Barry Bonds hits 756 or A-Rod says he doesn’t like NY or any other sports issue arises, and the public will forget. It’s sad, but apparently the wrestling public likes to watch cartoon-like characters jumping on each other, so will be a brief distraction for a few.

    Heck, they are even testing golfers on the Senior Tour for steroids now. I say let the guys over 50 use anything they want!


  133. EOG – thanks zman for a +29% gain on the Jul75 calls


  134. What’s up with DNDN??


  135. BillBigD-

    Are you still a fan of VSEA?


  136. Anyone noticed DNDN just jumped back over $7?!


  137. Here is a listing from Jan 12, 2007 of the possible suppliers for the Iphone. At that point in time I don’t believe AT&T had been chosen as the carrier. Am going to look at the stock prices then and now to see if there is any correlation between the hype AAPL has enjoyed and the mfcr supplying the product components and will post later.

    NONE OF THESE HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED:

    Processor: MRVL
    Bluetooth: BRCM, CSR
    Image Processor: BRCM
    WLAN: MRVL
    CMOS image (camera): MU

    digital-camera modules: Primax Electronics

    Sensor/Touch Pad: Balda, maybe also SYNA

    Front-end module (cell chips): SWKS

    stainless metal casing: Catcher Tech
    Connectors: Entery Industrial Co.
    Printed-Circuit Boards: Unimicron Technology
    Audio capabilities: Wolfson

    Glass: GLW


  138. the end of qtr markups getting set!


  139. From todays lows:

    Dow +110
    Naz +36
    S&P + 17


  140. Hi Phil, Your T paly sure looks good Tks for the nod. J


  141. From Briefing.com

    14:29 DNDN Dendreon spikes ~0.40 on heavy volume; hearing strength related to chatter regarding some sort of upcoming news, don’t have any specific details (7.35 +0.84)


  142. Amazing comeback for CVS. I had Jul $37.50 puts at 30+% profit this morning and just now sold them for breakeven instead. Can’t fight that huge bullish engulfing candle thats screaming “trend change”. Which begs the question: do I have the nerve to buy the calls here? Answer = NO.

    Greg


  143. AKAM
    coming alive!


  144. RIG – oh short-term thing only, I’m pretty sure they’ll test $100 here but, unfortunately, they may break yesterday’s open here, which will have me extremely concerned that they are heading back to $109 first but, either way, I feel they are stretched here.

    Paulson said little: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118295845414650167.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

    They are preaching consolidating regulators and regulations, which is a good strategy because it means less people you have to bribe and less issues you have to bribe them about – very pro business!

    FWLT doing it’s usual $5 per day move!

    Fed – No, no, no! I laid this all out in yesterday’s Fed statement. They MUST raise rates. We live in a banana republic and we are too simian to know it but the Fed knows it and they know they need money and money costs interest. They MUST raise rates and they WILL find an excuse to do so so the “news” stories are exactly what I was expecting as they prepare to change their stance towards a clear future hike.

    NYX – there are 4 tugboats pulling a barge and 1 tug goes off in a different direction… What’s an easier bet to make: That the other 3 tugboats will maintain their direction or that the 4th boat will get in line with the other 3?

    OIH – the fact that they are lagging crude’s comeback is what I’m seeing.

    Here’s and incredibly strong correlation that shouldn’t be so much:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart8:symbol=oih;range=1m;compare=uso;indicator=volumema+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined

    Market took off 1:30 on the dot, looks like that was the plan no matter what Paulson said, maybe the same tomorrow at 2:15


  145. YO
    I bought 1/2 on Gorilla’s rec. I am waiting for Vol to kick (my other service had a buy on it also) before I buy some more.
    I jumped in on the oil services guys yesterday and told myself not to buy anything today. But no willpower!!! LOL So I let VSEA slide today as VOL is weak


  146. Nice call on DIA for fun!


  147. Like I said early this morning, there was something funky about the post 4 pm repricing of indexes, which led to the big down open this morning. Shakeout city.


  148. OIH + 6 from intraday low. Insane !


  149. karmcon,

    To follow up on your list of iPhone suppliers, here’s an excerpt from IBD about SNCR (not actually a supplier, but plays in the iPhone rollout nevertheless:

    Buzz Over Apple’s iPhone Fuels Interest In Small Software Company
    BY BRIAN WOMACK

    “IDay” could be a big payday for Synchronoss Technologies. (SNCR) The Friday iPhone launch already has helped the stock price soar.

    Synchronoss, which helps telecoms and others process orders with software, will enable customers to buy the much-hyped iPhone by Apple (AAPL) through a relationship with AT&T’s (T) wireless unit, analysts say. Synchronoss’ stock is up 25% in just the past month alone, while the Nasdaq has been flat.


  150. CPHD- screaming
    NYX- tugboat is true, but I can’t wait a year for it to correct.


  151. What load of crapola on CNBC right now about the Goracle. Claiming how he went to “work” at Google and works hard, because he “gets” technology.

    What he really got was PAYOLA.

    Tell us exactly what “work” Gore did ?

    And what “work” did Edwards do at Fortress where he went to “work” to learn how the economy works, and he still don’t know jack.

    Not to pick on Dems today, if any obvious Payola “jobs” for Repub politicians feel free to comment.

    Just that the CNBC segment they had on was a complete vacuous fluff BS waste of time.


  152. EOG – sold my EOG taken at $1.15 this morning for $1.50 (30% gain in 4.5 hours). No greed just PSW discipline. Still have the same position from yesterday I picked up yesterday at $1.45.


  153. Phil, yeah, usually it’s just as correlated to nat gas but they’re obviously not buying this drop below $7 (July) or to $7 (August Contract) as seen here:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=oih;range=1m;compare=uso+ung;indicator=volumema+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined


  154. T – thanks SV, seemed safer than more AAPL

    It’s time to wake GOOG back up. I’m out of covers for now, big profits from $530s sold so willing to risk a $5 loss overnight against the possibilty of a Gentle Ben Fed statement kicking us up 100 points (plus, of course, I totally believe in this stock).

    DNDN – I see no news but it’s a purely rumor driven stock. I will pretty much always have some .20 calls on them, just in case.

    S&P needs to hold 1,500 (boy are we settling for scraps) but the Nasdaq at 2,600 would be a nice change of leadership sign.


  155. RIG- taking off the Aug 100′s $1.70 gain. Still have Aug 105′s


  156. Is it too late to get into a NKE or T trade here?


  157. BillBigD-

    Thanks on VSEA opinion. It follows a very defined trend channel and everytime it falls below that trend you can make money on calls and when it goes above it, you can make money on puts. Ever since June 7 it has been right around the bottom trend channel line so I have been eyeing it hard.


  158. POT came back big, picked up a few calls in the morning dip


  159. Some amazing candles are being printed today, such as POT, TSO, CROX etc..Very interesting.


  160. Holy crapola just sold the WFR 60′s for 3.20, never thought it would happen today!


  161. DR ZZZ
    Your thoughts on CVX?


  162. DNDN – Biggest volume are for July 10 (18700 volume) & Aug 7.5 (volume: 13592) Calls – is there some wonderful news, or someone spreading rumor to unload these calls?


  163. Here is a good example of how commissions can add up and hurt your % returns. On a total round trip of 50 WFR options I incurred a total of $156 in commissions for a per contract cost of $3.12. If same at IB total cost would have been $35 or $121 less. I know, my own fault, now just have to liquidate the ST options and transfer the capital. IB does take awhile to learn, but is very good at executions and provides more up to date quotes. I do like OpEx charts a bit better and their interface took very little time to learn, but commissions just too high unless your contract average per transaction is close to 10.


  164. Was T a mo play? trying to decide whether to let T keep running or cash out…


  165. FIZZ just crashed.

    Oh boy it’s a broker and oil company rally – everything must be perfect again! You guys will have to excuse me if I allow myself just 24 more hours of skepticism. Rates are kicking back up and I’m adding back my DIA puts here (back to $135s if I can get them for $2, otherwise $134s) with some QQQQ June $47s for fun at .15 as they opened lower than that this morning. XXX


  166. Karm – Likewise, going to IB opened a whole new world of trading options for me… Not having the shadow of higher commissions helps tremendously when dealing with small volume! And IB is rather good a execution, the only thing I really dislike is its poor charting but that can be alleviated with 3rd party tools.


  167. T – if your basis was .50 you should be half out at no less than .75 but I’m expecting it to break $40 at some point and who knows after that.

    Wow, someone hit the BUY button – everything but YHOO is catching a bid!


  168. T just hit 40…..


  169. thanks Phil, I should have known the 1/2 out rule would apply!

    (i will not be greedy, i will not be greedy, i will not be greedy…)


  170. GRMN – Again, sold it too early !!! YUCKS


  171. Guys, FYI I opened an account at OptionsHouse, great service. I called customer service and a real human answered the phone on the first ring! Wow. and 9.95 per trade no tricks


  172. Even GM is up .80 after being down early -.45! Not to be too greedy but ERTS could jump about 1.50 if it would like!


  173. Phil –

    About the $10k JOSB spread of the $40 JUL/$45 OCT,

    Do you intend to let it run out of premium into expiration then roll? I’m asking as the stock was rather depressed over the past few days and the JUL could have been bought back then re-sold on the ‘come back’ it’s currently enjoying.

    The question is general actually. It might be interesting to add some thoughts about how to treat the position once entered in case something happens when you’re not around to guide. Seeing these plays are more on the mid/long term, you could do that on the daily wrap-up.


  174. karmcon,

    I agree. Waiting for others on the board who are switching to optionshouse for their feedback. Sounds like an an even better way to go.


  175. Jamie,
    Does that same rate work with spreads? Say 20 contracts each side?


  176. Jamie,

    How is their trade execution?


  177. Not trying to be a wet blanket but everyone is so excited:

    Dow not at yesterday’s high of 13,450
    Nasdaq fading below Monday’s high of 2,605 but still impressive.
    S&P below yesterday’s high of 1,505
    Russell well under Monday’s 838
    NYSE below yesterday’s 9,855
    Oil just below 3 month highs
    Interest rates bouncing along 5.10 (10-year) still up .25 from June 1 – do you think it will be good if the Fed says “No, we refuse to pay what the market is demanding.”


  178. hil
    Are you adding covers back on to the Leaps EOD that you have taken off today? ( I have bought back callers on CCJ , NYX , UNH and 1/3 of CAT July 80 ). I am trying to keep up with your thinking.
    My thinking
    UNH Call was only worth .25 so I should leave open
    CCJ I am thinking to leave open
    NYX ..who the heck knows so when in doubt …go 1/2
    CAT.. I am thinking to leave as is overnight

    any feedback would be helpful
    thx
    T


  179. DECK-took 1/2 off!
    ramana- right with ya on GRMN
    JOSB- good question FAB, That is when buying back paid off yesterday when I went long


  180. Futures keep climbing, and the market is following – dow futures now +101


  181. BBD/KC Execution great today, Spreads each side pays.


  182. Market still grinding higher. Amazing. Look at how much VIX came down also.


  183. JOSB – If the Fed wasn’t tomorrow I would be buying out callers right and left on these moves but I’d rather keep my insurance until tomorrow afternoon. Of course since I’m around 70% cash, a 10% loss in positions for being too cautious will only cost my 3% of the portfolio so better safe than sorry absolutely applies here.

    While being conservative with the broader positions I have been in and out of the DIAs to great effect. As others have mentioned, you have to focus on one thing or another so I’ve been focusing on my $30K DIA blocks since they go up and down $20K a day rather than worry about “the little things.”

    Optionhose is being considered as a repository for the stock club but all these questions need to be answered. I have had a good meeting with their guys though.


  184. BBBY earnings

    I have to buy some token 37.5 puts. Because I like to gamble.


  185. T,
    i’m also out of my short callers at nice profits and am also thinking of waiting for a pop from uncle ben to re-establish callers. hope brother phil agrees.


  186. Is Jared the one to talk to about the stock club?


  187. Dr. J, on MN1 before Phil and Z, mentioned that AMR July 25s were being bought heavily. Worth a look?


  188. JOSB – Makes sense, that’s mostly why the past few days of drops haven’t been overly bothersome.


  189. I bought some GSS Jan 08 2.50 leaps (are they still called leaps only 7 months out?) for $1.25. Stock is trading at $3.60 so the premium is only $.15 to hold for 7 months. I think gold will turn up before then, so it seems too cheap to pass up. Lots of open interest too.

    Any opinions?
    Greg


  190. Phil

    Just thinking about the Fed’s rate hike potential…..doesn’t China like our rates to stay down so their rate doesn’t have to rise also and keeps the yuan in check with the dollar? Because of that, I thought they were steady customers Fed counts on. Lower dollar also helps our service industry with tourism and exports. Am sure I am missing the key reasons why the Fed will hike rate though.


  191. ICE-added at the close.


  192. Re my GSS copmments – i forgot to mention that there was some strong insider buying recently by several officers. Which is what got my interest initially.

    Greg


  193. Bingo on my DIA July $135 puts at $2! I am so happy to be back in these this cheap!

    Replacing covers – no, that’s why I’m excited to have tight DIA puts, much easier to change my mind about.

    VIX – if the VIX goes down while you are making a move that’s actually a pretty good indicator that the move is in the right direction. I will be so amazed if we just shake off this whole dip that I’ll have to take that Chinese analyst out to lunch who called the market an irreversible uptrend! Meanwhile, how good was my sell the VIX calls into the run-up play? Am I the only one who does this stuff?

    Pisani says this move looks like an EOQ thing.


  194. Thanks for the T July 40 call Phil that worked nice.


  195. VIX fun – I’m doing it too, it’s been good to me for the past few months. I have to start thinking about rolling my NOV $13 calls further out in time though, their premium is starting to fluctuate a bit more than when I started.


  196. What have I been saying all week ?

    Shakeout.
    End of Qtr.
    Fed.


  197. DDay is stock club guy. He’s off until Tues but things will get interesting then I think. You can have Jared put you on list.

    AMR – not with oil at $69

    Leaps – I call any Jan a leap until it’s September.

    GSS – 7 months? It’s not the premium, you basically own the stock but you may see $3 before it turns.

    Rates – its not a game of musical chairs. We are beggers. We need money. We’ve tapped out all our friends and now we have to go to strangers or we can’t even afford to pay our friends the interest we owe them. The strangers want a little more than 5% for their troubles and we have no way of making more morney or curbing our spending habits so we have to bite the bullet and raise rates if we don’t want our allowance cut off.

    Speaking of decaying infrastructure from years of neglect, New York is having blackouts.


  198. Phil
    What are your thoughts on this Peter guy? The USA is going down the tubes.


  199. Jamie,

    optionshouse – can you share what tools they offer and how easy it is to learn/use? I’m with OXPS and theirs are pretty intuitive, unlike Interactive Brokers (never had an account, but based on my view of their intro/demo). Thanks in advance.


  200. IRF

    been accumulatng IRF for a while now. looks like it may have bottomed and has been moving up the last few days despite the major indexes.

    http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/06/27/ap3863009.html


  201. T – you’re welcome. I’d recommend the DIS $35s but people would shoot me at this point!

    VIX – sure roll them back. The only reason to own them is to quash the margin on selling the shorter calls (note to self, should also sell puts when it’s down around 13). The movement of one hardly has anything to do with the other and there are no deliverables but for some reason brokers treat these plays like stocks from a margin perspective.

    The USA is going down the tubes but what a fun ride – wheeeeeeeeee!


  202. Karmcon

    Started using IB, a month ago, and using Phils scaling strategy works really good with
    $1 per contract or $0.75 for more than 1 contract


  203. VIX – Puts… yes, should think about it too!

    Stock club – Sent a mail to Jared a while back stating I’m interested, I expect there will be some sort of update on things once DDay is back then?


  204. Club – yes, my understanding is the background stuff is being gone through quickly (relatively) as there was plenty of interest (that was the key thing they wanted to know at the time).


  205. Art Class – see if you can draw a line they will give this chart balance:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=^dji;range=3m;indicator=volumema+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined


  206. Oh it broke, that should be in the 3 month view on a full screen.


  207. Karmcon

    IB platform sucks.. but execution is fast and good, used opex and scottrade for charts and quotes, use IB to buy


  208. Hey KC, I havn’t done the entire demo but you can take a tour at https://www.optionshouse.com/home/contact/index.jsp
    Give that a try and tell me what I am missing!.. J


  209. Phil,

    For those of us following the LTP, how do you recommend we build our positions? Several are likely way above the original basis. Do you have regular refreshes of the portfolio? Where do you post those?


  210. From my quick overview of Optionshouse I was concerned about the ability to see streaming quotes and charts. It looked to me like you had to hit refresh to see updated prices.


  211. LTP – we will be making a lot of moves there this month and next as I prefer to roll out to ’09 at this point so there will be full posts on the subject. Patiece is the key but absolutely done before my Aug 4 vacation.


  212. Stock Club

    what are the entry/recurring fees. Is this a replacement for the PSW blog? Any other specifics available yet or still being worked out?


  213. also, the DIA 134′s @ .30 were outstanding!! Thanks Phil. I need to pay way more attention to the index plays.


  214. DW

    Regarding Optionshouse, I just opened an account there and the quotes are on a 5 second refresh – and the charts are sort of weak. But the interface is clean and simple and you can use third party for charts if you really like pretty ones (I do).


  215. Club – they’re still working on that. It’s a little tricky because I can’t have it conflict with my hedge fund so it’s not going to be “my” club. It will be a members club that will follow our trades.

    DIA – like I said earlier

    Charts – I use Esignal myself and Investools for pricing with live quotes (becuse I like their option charting best) so I could care less what a platform has unless it’s Etrade, which doesn’t even allow complex spreads and is really horrible (that’s what I’ve learned from trying it). All I care about from my broker is execution as I always put limit orders in anyway although OXPS does have nice ways to set trails and contingencies (but I may work with the OptionHouse guys on a design for that down the road).


  216. Wang’s World
    new posts up!!


  217. AUO and CMO sales to again hit records in June, paper say
    Commercial Times, June 27; Carrie Yu, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 27 June 2007]

    Amid rising panel quotes and shipment increases, AU Optronics (AUO) and Chi Mei Optoelectronics (CMO) will likely report sequential sales growth of more than 5% and set records again in June, according to the Chinese-language Commercial Times.

    Shipments of the two panel makers are to grow 5-7% sequentially during the period, the paper noted.

    Shipments of Windows Mobile-based devices to top 20 million units in 2008
    Irene Chen, Taipei; Steve Shen, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 27 June 2007]

    An additional 20 Microsoft Windows Mobile 6-based handsets will be launched before the end of 2007 and global shipments of Windows Mobile-based devices are expected to top 20 million units in 2008, according to sources at Microsoft Taiwan.

    With the recently launched Windows Mobile 6 platform, Microsoft’s share in the global mobile devices market is expected to double to 20% in 2008 from the current level of 10%, said Eddie Wu, managing director of Microsoft ODM embedded devices, Asia. Wu made the remarks as the software giant officially launched its Windows Mobile 6 OS on June 26 in Taiwan.

    Additionally, shipments of Windows Mobile platform-based devices are expected to grow at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 61.6% from 2006 to 2010, higher than the projected shipment growth for smartphones, said sources at Microsoft Taiwan, citing IDC data.

    So far, more than 140 Windows Mobile-based handsets have been launched by 48 handset makers and other mobile device vendors, the sources added.

    The planned launches of additional new Windows Mobile 6-based handsets before the end of this year will include those coming from Asustek Computer, Gigabyte Communications, E-Ten Information Systems, Samsung Electronics and Hewlett-Packard (HP), indicated the sources

    MU reports Thursday