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Wednesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted June 27, 2007 at 9:40 am | Permalink (Edit)

Who is NOT down, that’s what we need to look at today…

Posted June 27, 2007 at 9:42 am | Permalink (Edit)

POT/CROX… Money coming out of high flyers as people taking it off the table.

Posted June 27, 2007 at 9:43 am | Permalink (Edit)

Big tech is working so far – AAPL, INTC, MSFT, SNDK, TXN…

Posted June 27, 2007 at 9:51 am | Permalink (Edit)

From Drogon yesterday:

HOC July 70 puts@.90, stock@73.62 – missed it (genius call)

TSO July 57.50puts@2.15, stock@ 57.81 – damn, I hope you did that one.

RIG July 100 puts@1.40, stock@104.33 – GAME ON, now $1.62 XXX

MRO July 60 puts@1.55, stock @60.62 – missed it.

FSLR July85 puts or 80 puts@ 1.55, stock@87.65 – I like the $80s at $2 (in other words on momentum if it starts to fall but not here at $1.52).

“My favs yet to sell off are the ethanols and Agriculture plays though!”

MON, MOS, AGU, POT, BG – All Brilliant picks by Dragon yesterday afternoon! I’m very sorry I put them off until today but BG is the most playable one left with Aug $75 puts at $2.05 XXX

Great work Dragon!!!

Posted June 27, 2007 at 10:23 am | Permalink (Edit)

Very strange, both my July DIA puts have lost value! VIX coming down a bit too.

BBY did a BBuYback.

SOX and Biotech and the Qs are holding up, here’s hoping for some of that rotation.

DIA July $133 puts active, tight stops on $135 puts (up 135%).

Let’s watch that $67.50 line. Back below that and SU should start to slide but right now I’m watching out for an oil run.

$10KP – time to roll down FWLT again!

Posted June 27, 2007 at 10:59 am | Permalink (Edit)

Sorry been crazy busy – had emergency phone call then right to radio.

What did TRMP do wrong?

VLO – it’s a mo play, when you lose momentum you get out. The thing made .40 on 5 mins, that’s a good time to get out folks, that’s an annualized return of 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000%, if you have other investments that do better then by all means risk it but otherwise you should get out and improve your overall average. In my strategy section I say that when I make 20% on ANY trade I am, at that point, ready to exit for any reason. If you can’t have that attitude about short-term trades then you just shouldn’t be playing them .

Stepping back for those of you still in the VLO, let’s watch the $73 line and if they can’t get back above there by noon they are toast. The trade can be balanced with the $70 puts at .90 and played for a very likely $3 move between now and 7/20.

XOM is the same deal at $82, if they can’t break it then there is more pain to come. Obviously I have my longer puts so I’m not worried about the downside but .65 is very cheap for the $85s with so much time left and you can balance with very reasonable Oct $75 puts at $1.55 XXX

Ineficiency – you also have to consider the window dressing effect with just 3 trading days left.

CCJ – may have found a bottom.

Posted June 27, 2007 at 11:02 am | Permalink (Edit)

I’m still liking the RIG $100 puts at $1.15 XXX

Posted June 27, 2007 at 11:24 am | Permalink (Edit)

Come on guys – where are your “It’s not my job to save the markets” post-its? What great event just happened that everyone is buying again? I’m playing a quick bounce in oil but keeping long puts.

Posted June 27, 2007 at 11:39 am | Permalink (Edit)

VLO – I said it was at $2 yesterday so get out there for sure but safer to be happy with $1.50. I cannot stress enough how great it is to make 50% in a day. Even if you start with just $1,000 and you make 50% on that once a month and compound it, that’s $129,746.34 per year that you are throwing away by not taking 50% off the table! Of course you don’t bet that way but think of the aggregate effect of all those times you think 50% isn’t good enough and then you blow it…

Posted June 27, 2007 at 11:44 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – I can’t imagine I ever liked the $570s but I still like the $550s at $17 and selling the $530s for $11.65. What’s not to like? XXX

 

Posted June 27, 2007 at 12:24 pm | Permalink (Edit)

FWLT – what position do you have now?

Oil direction – don’t forget the dreaded head fake! Ridiculous overreaction to todays report. They say this is “shocking” but last weeks 6.9Mb build was “a bump in inventory.” So ridiculous! Now they are pumping for all it’s worth but XOM and VLO broke my upside targets so we can only go witth the flow here.

GOOG – yes Sept $550s/July $550s

WFR – great call by Happy yesterday! Saved me a bundle as he made me put stops on my callers. If they break $60 they could be off to the races with the SOX.

X is mounting a comeback. If the Dow goes positive the Aug $115s, now $3.80 aren’t a bad prospect since you can sell the July $110s, now $3.10 on a reversal.

Don’t forget Paulson speaks in 1 hr 15 mins and it’s possible he will release prepared remarks so let’s watch for a sudden pop. DIA $134s for .38 make a fun momentum play as the $133s are .85

Posted June 27, 2007 at 1:17 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DELL – I would not cover them here. They held up well today and you will be trading potential gains for the month for .55 of premium. If it were mine, I would hold out unless it crosses $27.50 (not on a spike like this morning, which was such a classic flush) or if the market really starts tanking, then I would sell the $25s as a mo play as you’ll get almost penny for penny there.

FWLT – those were rolled to $100s early this morning as the $105s ran out of premium but if you are still in the Nov/July $105s you can take it off the table for $5.50 net or roll to 2x Aug $100 puts, now $5.10 selling 2x the July $100 puts, now $2.70 (net $2.40) which takes .70 off the table looking to make about $350 more by July 19th. Rolling your caller down to the $100s is no longer a good play.

Posted June 27, 2007 at 1:54 pm | Permalink (Edit)

CLB raised outlook last night and reversed a nasty downtrend but the guidance raise was .08 and they were already expected to do .40 better than last year’s .70 and the stock is already up from $55 at this time last year when .70 was a 20% upsider surprise. I’d have to call a spike to an ATH while the OIH is looking tired to be a bit of an overreaction. CLB is a great company but their p/e is almost double the group and they are debt heavy with fairly poor cash flow. I’m hoping they take a stab at $100 and get it out of their system but the Aug $90 puts are tempting at $1.25.

Posted June 27, 2007 at 2:07 pm | Permalink (Edit)

RIG – yes I’ve got a round here (.90) but someone is coming in and buying them up again so I’m a bit concerned now.

WFR – at no point in today’s $3 run did you feel the urge to change that position? I imagine you’re not too far from even and there’s still a lot of premium in the contracts so you can just say they are just about where we thought they’d be when we initiated them a couple of weeks ago. At this point, ahead of the Fed and with no $62.50s, I’d keep the insurance. I’ll be putting mine back on at least half (when in doubt) by EOD.

Oil – my rule of thumb is that if SU gains less than 75% of what oil does, I don’t buy the rally.

Posted June 27, 2007 at 2:43 pm | Permalink (Edit)

RIG – oh short-term thing only, I’m pretty sure they’ll test $100 here but, unfortunately, they may break yesterday’s open here, which will have me extremely concerned that they are heading back to $109 first but, either way, I feel they are stretched here.

Paulson said little: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118295845414650167.html?mod=googlenews _wsj

They are preaching consolidating regulators and regulations, which is a good strategy because it means less people you have to bribe and less issues you have to bribe them about – very pro business!

FWLT doing it’s usual $5 per day move!

Fed – No, no, no! I laid this all out in yesterday’s Fed statement. They MUST raise rates. We live in a banana republic and we are too simian to know it but the Fed knows it and they know they need money and money costs interest. They MUST raise rates and they WILL find an excuse to do so so the “news” stories are exactly what I was expecting as they prepare to change their stance towards a clear future hike.

Posted June 27, 2007 at 3:01 pm | Permalink (Edit)

T – thanks SV, seemed safer than more AAPL

It’s time to wake GOOG back up. I’m out of covers for now, big profits from $530s sold so willing to risk a $5 loss overnight against the possibilty of a Gentle Ben Fed statement kicking us up 100 points (plus, of course, I totally believe in this stock).

DNDN – I see no news but it’s a purely rumor driven stock. I will pretty much always have some .20 calls on them, just in case.

S&P needs to hold 1,500 (boy are we settling for scraps) but the Nasdaq at 2,600 would be a nice change of leadership sign.

Posted June 27, 2007 at 3:27 pm | Permalink (Edit)

FIZZ just crashed.

Oh boy it’s a broker and oil company rally – everything must be perfect again! You guys will have to excuse me if I allow myself just 24 more hours of skepticism. Rates are kicking back up and I’m adding back my DIA puts here (back to $135s if I can get them for $2, otherwise $134s) with some QQQQ June $47 puts for fun at .15 as they opened lower than that this morning. XXX

Posted June 27, 2007 at 3:30 pm | Permalink (Edit)

T – if your basis was .50 you should be half out at no less than .75 but I’m expecting it to break $40 at some point and who knows after that.

Wow, someone hit the BUY button – everything but YHOO is catching a bid!

Posted June 27, 2007 at 3:44 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Not trying to be a wet blanket but everyone is so excited:

Dow not at yesterday’s high of 13,450
Nasdaq fading below Monday’s high of 2,605 but still impressive.
S&P below yesterday’s high of 1,505
Russell well under Monday’s 838
NYSE below yesterday’s 9,855
Oil just below 3 month highs
Interest rates bouncing along 5.10 (10-year) still up .25 from June 1 – do you think it will be good if the Fed says “No, we refuse to pay what the market is demanding.”

Posted June 27, 2007 at 3:52 pm | Permalink (Edit)

JOSB – If the Fed wasn’t tomorrow I would be buying out callers right and left on these moves but I’d rather keep my insurance until tomorrow afternoon. Of course since I’m around 70% cash, a 10% loss in positions for being too cautious will only cost my 3% of the virtual portfolio so better safe than sorry absolutely applies here.

Posted June 27, 2007 at 4:00 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Bingo on my DIA July $135 puts at $2! I am so happy to be back in these this cheap!

Replacing covers – no, that’s why I’m excited to have tight DIA puts, much easier to change my mind about.

VIX – if the VIX goes down while you are making a move that’s actually a pretty good indicator that the move is in the right direction. I will be so amazed if we just shake off this whole dip that I’ll have to take that Chinese analyst out to lunch who called the market an irreversible uptrend! Meanwhile, how good was my sell the VIX calls into the run-up play? Am I the only one who does this stuff?

Pisani says this move looks like an EOQ thing.

 


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