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Friday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted July 20, 2007 at 9:37 am | Permalink (Edit)

Sorry, concentrating on GOOG.

In with 40 $520s at .75, will sell 1/2 at $1.50 and buy 20 $530s as a roll. Puts are too expensive so far but will buy 20 $500 puts for $1, preferably .75.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 9:38 am | Permalink (Edit)

VLO turning down sharply again.

NOV $115 puts at .10, just a feeling!

Posted July 20, 2007 at 9:45 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – sorry was shooting up while I posted. Already a free ride – this is why I posted the strategy last night, you need to buy into that initial dip. Now going the other way. NEVER chase these the time to buy the puts is when its going up and the time to buy calls is when it’s going down – don’t be a sucker, don’t spend more than a craps bet and don’t violate your intended amounts until you are ahead (and then never risk your nut).

Posted July 20, 2007 at 9:46 am | Permalink (Edit)

XOM – sold $95 puts against my $90 puts for a mo play, praying to get even.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 9:57 am | Permalink (Edit)

AMD being slapped right back down. Internals look ugly, nobody would pay me for XOM $95 puts 8-( I am just screwed on that position! Going to funnel my frustration into more Aug $90 puts. I no longer X these as I do not generally recommend them as they are only good plays if you can afford 3 month’s worth of DDs and rolls.

ICE popping back up.

GOOG – very dangerous here as many many people are playing this channel so there will be a lot riding on expiring right at $515 but I’m trying to get the $510 puts for $1.50 or less and will buy more $520s at $1, looking to be 40/40 ahead of lunch and cutting back to 20/20 through the end of the day. Every time I get a double on either side I take half off and rebuy back to 40 shares at $1 or less. If it breaks out, I ladder up before the next level is $1 and immediately set a .50 stop on the level behind me. By the way, this is all what I want to happen, what actually happens 4 out of 5 earnings is they all expire worthless!

Posted July 20, 2007 at 10:01 am | Permalink (Edit)

Gold way up – very bad. Rates going up. Not a good environment for GOOG to take off in. Good time to protect Apple’s downside since the put holders are nervous. XXX

Posted July 20, 2007 at 10:06 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – gone at the open at $24 – I do follow my own advice! They’ve been replaced for the day by the $510 puts so I won’t miss anything today and my Sept $550s kept $9.45, about where I started so I’ll be rolling those to the $530s, now $16 at least.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 10:23 am | Permalink (Edit)

T = “Toxic” this month but I’m long on them way out in ‘09.

GOOG – doesn’t it seem odd to you that the yahoos who trade after hours could hit the nail on the head when the stock opens to flatline it for the day. That’s like a $50 stock staying in a .25 range all day after a 10% pre-market move – a bit of a stretch for coincidence…

I stopped talking about them because they were killing people but FWLT has been very good to me selling the $120 calls whenever they poke through. I’m not sure I want to do that with Aug as they have too much time but next run up they make I will buy Aug $115 puts as soon as they start to turn. XXX

CAT/AA/MSFT taking down the Dow, this is not all that awful yet. AXP making it’s usual random move.

AAPL – I’m in the $200 camp but hedging for sure!

LDK – let me know how that goes, I like them but would rather see a pullback. If you have to DD, that’s where I want to enter!

Foreign majors TOT, BP, RDS.A getting killed into Europe’s close – I’m telling you something is rotten here in the states and I’m going to take CVX Aug $90 puts at $1.50, COP Aug $85 puts for $2.25 and SU Aug $95 puts for $2.63. It’s been bothering me all week but I really do believe that Flynn on CNBC Monday, Weds and Friday and T Boone getting a weeks worth of coverage is a coordinated effort to jack oil up ahead of earnings. It looks like the OIH crowd may justify it but those guys are charging the majors who are collecting far less money in euros than they did last year.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 10:28 am | Permalink (Edit)

Don’t forget to layer your mattress plays – the Aug $139 puts already crossed $2 and the $138 puts are at $1.75. I wouldn’t chase as this SHOULD be some support but I’m handing off my $140 puts with a .50 profit if it turns up and leaving just the $139 puts until I see a clear direction. At .50 less, they lose money less quickly and usually only cost .30 to roll back up – every .20 helps on these plays!

Posted July 20, 2007 at 10:39 am | Permalink (Edit)

SLB – if you have the calls you should just say “YAY” that was a great quarter and, until the majors say they are scaling back E&P, they are probably good at this level. DDay is right though, if you have good profits you sell half. If you regret it you can always buy the next level up and if it isn’t strong enough to do that then you should be glad you sold half.

MSFT – $30s were gone way back on the 12th. Very bad if you still have them. They have to be taken out by EOD but we could be down 200 by then so maybe see what happens but probably get out if the SOX or Nas make a sharp turn up.

$10KP – watching CLF very closely on the same basis as the $85 caller has to be taken out as well.

$10KP – am offering .05 for 40 more DNDN $10 calls, may not fill, not worth a dime (probably not worth a nickel either!).

Posted July 20, 2007 at 10:43 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – MUST fight tempation to load up but I am going to take the $530s at .15 as a fantasy pre-roll, this let’s me cash out with no regrets if the $520s do start to fly.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 10:56 am | Permalink (Edit)

$10KP GSK – Ah, I forgot that one! With 10 shares we can’t really afford to take a hit so I’d go with 5 Aug $50s at $3.30 and 5 Aug $52.50s at $1.60. XXX

GOOG – 7M shares after earnings (so far) is 5M less than last earnings day (gapped up $19 opened at $490, high $492, finish at LOD $482) so stay on those $510 puts, now .85 just in case we get a volume something later but last time was almost a 50% retrace of the open!

Posted July 20, 2007 at 11:10 am | Permalink (Edit)

POT – typically, investors punish a compnay for investing in the future…

S&P 1,540 would be a good reason to be concerned if it breaks!

GOOG OTM Roll – I would go longer so I can sell some other sucker the Augs ($8.50 for the $530s is a bit steep, $3.65 for the $550s is ridiculous…)

AAPL – I don’t have that but I do vaguely remember looking at it. Dangerous play ahead of earnings now that they are up here, better to go Jan $180, now $6.80 and sell the $150s for $5.05 but perhaps 4:3 as it would really sting if it went up $20 (of course tha’t what we said about GOOG!).

GOOG volume picking up nicely but $520 premium being deflated faster than they gain!

Posted July 20, 2007 at 11:34 am | Permalink (Edit)

C – I think it’s a sector thing so I’m willing to wait to next week (but I am very covered with DIA puts so I don’t really care if a Dow component goes down).

Posted July 20, 2007 at 11:50 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG Big Boys – I always translate GOOG in my head to $51.60 because that is how a big boy sees it. While you may think they would “jump” on a fall from $540 to $510, a fund manager will do nothing more than you will do if your stock goes from $54 to $51 – which is to watch it, look for a bottom and consider cutting his losses before they get past 7 or 8%.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 12:29 pm | Permalink (Edit)

BBD – “seems to agree with Cramer?!?” LOL, that is so funny as he actually bet Bolling that financials would outperform oil this year. It’s amazing how he can flip a position and have people thinking he was on that side the whole time…

XOM – not positive anymore. Of course, as expected with oil heading south the rest of the market is hopeless. If BA loses it this could be a hum dinger of a sell-off!

NOV 8-)

Rein – don’t forget direct shipments.

C – I do like them as a DD at .45, maybe .50

GOOG – the only long I really like right now is the Jan ‘09 $540 for $80 but that’s assuming you have the margin to sell calls against it but it’s a naked hold for now, hoping for a bounce. Current Jan $540s have less than 1/3 the amount of sales ahead of them at $34.50 but you can sell the silly $530s for $9.50 as long as you can afford to roll them up each time the next level up goes to $10 (current $540s are $6.40). That’s just a rule of thumb at this point in the month.

As to the move and dip, it’s good to try to remember what happens here, we all had a chance to exit with a small profit and not taking that profit has dire consequences. Also, the $1.50 we were offered less than an hour ago can now buy more than 2 replacement $520 calls. This is why you MUST use a half out strategy here as you are almost certain to lose one end of the trade anyway. As Highlander says, this is day trading to the extreme!

DIA – I’m on level 3 so that’s it for the Aug $140s at $2.85 avg. Plenty of profit (.80) to let me roll back my $139s and $138s if I have to (but first I would stop out the $139 puts at $2.30 (+.30) and the $138 puts at $1.75 (down .25) and wait to see where I reset. This costs a few nickels but if we get a 50 point retrace it saves much more! XXX

Posted July 20, 2007 at 1:00 pm | Permalink (Edit)

LEH – in and out even on those. They had a nice pop yesteday morning but gave it up very fast. At this point I almost like them again but not the $75s as they have no earnings until September. If you are stuck with the Aug $75s. You can buy 1x Oct $80s for $1.10 and sell the 1X Aug $70s for $1.95 which will get you near even on the 1X Weds entry (and you can DD at .65 first and get a litttle ahead).

Mattress Play – as long as we’re clear that you are protecting something and not just playing the DIA Sept $138 puts at $3.25 will cost you about .75 per month so you need to pretty much roll them at the end of each month for $.75 and roll them up .30 for each 100-point up move the Dow makes. The idea is that if the Dow goes up and up, the $1.20 per month you pay to maintain insurance should be no more than 1/3 of what you are gaining. Ideally it works like a little bank that cashes in when theres a big dip, effectively saving your gains from being wiped out and allowing you to let more things ride than you otherwise would becuase you have a soft landing below you.

FXI – should have flipped rather than just sold this morning – so obvious!

CBS2 Exclusive: Feds Seize Rocket Launcher In N.J. – Holy Crap is that negative!!!! Thanks Cody. Good time to short airlines! Oops, too late, look at CAL today. UAUA $45 puts right now at .10 XXX

Posted July 20, 2007 at 1:08 pm | Permalink (Edit)

That story seems to be 36 mins old, nothing on CNBC yet but on CBS and local Hudson county paper site. Damn man, my kids just got off a plane at Newark yesterday!

X – never took on that open. At this point I would just hope for a recovery, dd if I was down more than 1/2 as they have to look cheap to Europeans.

YHOO – wow they are getting crushed!

CAT $80 is very tempting.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 1:14 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Holding that 13,820 line at least, hopefully 3rd time won’t be a charm to the ddownside.


Posted July 20, 2007 at 1:28 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DIA – that’s why I ladder down like that, I don’t have to sweat the reentries, theres just a certain point where it stops me out and I stop making profits. Since we’re rolling, I’m accumulating the Sept $138 puts as it gives me a chance to sell Augs on a run. XXX

Posted July 20, 2007 at 1:34 pm | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG $520 puts – theres a point of diminshing returns with less than 3 hours left and .93 is a LOT of money so not for me. I’m thrilled to be ahead here, I just halfed out at $2.25 with just 20 $520s left and pretty much all paid for with a profit.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 1:42 pm | Permalink (Edit)

I need to step away from this trade, it’s making me very greedy…

Now the psycho trader move is to pick a good spot to sell the $510 calls if it turns down – you get penny for penny on the move (great for me with my $530s as a stopper). GOOG up to 12M now, busier than last expiration looks like no sellers to me but, like I said, I need to walk away before I bet again…

Posted July 20, 2007 at 2:01 pm | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – out at $2, plenty, plenty (well I say that now but watch me scream if it goes up $5!).

Posted July 20, 2007 at 2:18 pm | Permalink (Edit)

What a great comeback for the market! It’s amazing. GOOG is popping of course so I just need another $10 to be sooooooooooooooooooooo happy. Still buying DIA puts again before the close.

DIA – by the way, I do also have calls. Just 200 (vs. 450 puts) all Aug $139s now.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 2:47 pm | Permalink (Edit)

CHAP taking off. X should move now.

VIX – I have a nice little cash machine selling the VIX right around $17.50. I have the Nov $13s from way back when the VIX was near $10 so I’m very safe but they’ve never given me more than a couple of day’s worth of trouble on the sells so maybe the Feb $15s for $4.20 and sell the Aug $18s for $1.23 XXX

AAPL – good time to take some Aug $135 puts for $4.75 as downside protection, was $6.75 on Weds. XXX

TASR – I have ’09s half covered by $15s so I guess you can say I don’t have 100% confidence in this earnings but I will own this stock for many many years.

Sadly starting to re-up DIA puts. Adding back some Aug $139s as well as Septs, hoping for $2.10 or less.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 2:49 pm | Permalink (Edit)

C found a bottom.

SIRI making a last ditch effort to pin $3 – I love this stock, they work so hard to destroy my callers!

Posted July 20, 2007 at 3:01 pm | Permalink (Edit)

IBM pinned under $115. When I see stocks forced under I figure people don’t want to let them go to the callers. It’s the ones that run up to .15 that concern me as I think they may be trying to shove callers into the money so they can dump like maniacs next week. That’s why I’m wondering about the QQQQ’s at 50.11!

Posted July 20, 2007 at 3:13 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DIA – if we finish like this then this late “rally” was nothing more than a 20% retracement from yesterdays drop – not a sign of strength. I suppose I like the Sept $140s for $3.30 against the Aug $141s for $1.17 to start. If the market drops, you can sell down and vs. vs.

This feels like it to me for the buyers – time for everyone to head to the Hamptons.

Posted July 20, 2007 at 3:52 pm | Permalink (Edit)

FXI – it’s a fair gamble but I’m in getting to cash mode since I’m leaving early Aug on vac so it’s not for me but if you go Sept $137s for $8.65 and you are right, you will be selling Augs out of the money for $3 or $4 with the ability to roll them on each dollar.

GSK – they held up well on 2 bad days so there must be a lot of positive sentiment. It’s tough not getting your price but that just means if you go to monday naked then that just means you sell all $50s as a downside mo play. If it shoots up, then it’s all $52.50s for more than we thought.

JOSB – Any sell is a bonus since we didn’t pay for it and they are way out of the money so I don’t really want to sell the $40s so it’s another one I’d like to see shake out next week. Possible roll to $40s for $1.30 and sell the Aug $40s for .85 but no hurry.

YHOO – if it was a horse we’d have to shoot it! I’m inclined to spend the .50 on the roll to the $27.50s but I need to give GOOG the weekend to check sentiment. TWX, GOOG, MSFT all being treated poorly too.

CLF – we got exactly what we wanted, a free play (well, .25) into earnings. The problem with having 5 contracts at $2 is that it’s almost silly to take 2 or 3 off the table into earnings but we sure will for $3!




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