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Weekly Wrap-Up

41 Monopoly ManWhoopie, yet another amazing week put to bed.

It’s always great when pretty much all of our major bets work out:

Last Friday Zman pointed out some refiners that had gotten ahead of themselves and we decided HOC Aug $75 puts at $2.25, now $2.88 and WNR Sept $55 puts at $2.12, now $3.50 made good plays.  We also liked BHI Aug $85 puts at $1.62, now 4.15 from the 12th and the BHI July $85 puts at .30, which finished the month at $2.60.  That was the last of our official "Free Picks" but there were so many good plays lest week we still found a couple of new ones to play.

In last week’s wrap-up I outlined Dr. Brett’s concerns about the market and nothing that happened last week changed our opinion of that.  On Monday morning I promised a thrill ride for the week and that’s exactly what we got with the Dow; up 150 by Tuesday afternoon, back down 175 to 13,850 by noon on Wednesday, up over 14,000 again on Thursday morning and back down to 13,800 at 1pm on Friday.  Since we went into the week with a pretty good strangle on DIA puts and calls (which we spent the whole month working into), it’s no surprise that they were the stars of our virtual portfolio, accounting for much of the week’s gains despite the fact that they are there mainly for "protection."

In Monday’s wrap-up I pointed out that the dollar could go further down and that gold could go further up, and they did.  Finally all that discussion about China and the Euro and the carry trade starts to pay off for us! 

Someone was interviewing me last week and they asked me if we specialize in energy and I said no, it’s just hot so we talk about it.  I explained to him that if medical devices were hot my members would know every last detail about drug coated stents because, over the long haul, THAT’S HOW WE MAKE MONEY, we take the time to learn the sectors that are in play because this is not roulette, this is the market and there are market forces at work and understanding those market forces allow us to make sensible bets over time!

On Tuesday, Happy and I were concerned and I said: "I don’t expect to break 14,000 without some sort of "venting," as Happy likes to say so let’s stay light on our feet and keep our eyes wide open as truly anything can happen in this wild earnings and data week" and it took us all the way until 3:45 to be right as the Dow put on a heck of a show all day but watching the S&P kept us from irrational exuberance as we broke 14,000 for 90 glorious minutes that afternoon, leading me to make a cash call for Tuesday Evening/Wednesday Morning.

Not trusting the rally and pressing our DIA puts was our best call of the week but we also had the very brilliant idea of lightening up on Google and going into earnings with a 1:1 put//call spread but kept a bullish stance on Apple – these have worked out nicely so far but after last week’s Google dip, we did up our hedges on Apple!  Wednesday also was the peak of oil pumping as we flew to $76 on Thursday, capping off CNBC’s week-long pump fest which I considered (and still do) a sign of a blow-off top.  Also helpful on Wednesday was my intra-day bottom call which got us out of index puts and into index calls mid day but then back in index calls as we over-corrected in the afternoon.  Just keeping up with the old James Bond investing techniques!

Thursday morning it looked like we were ready for take-off but I warned that an economy that had chosen guns over butter for the decade was simply too susceptible to rising oil prices and I continued my cash call saying: "So let’s enjoy the ride while we can but let’s also take a little off the table on the way up.  If the market is going to go up forever, then we can reinvest our cash and make more money but if we get an earnings shock that drops the market, you’ll be glad to have a little cash to pad your mattress."

As I had said all week, Google would trump all else and they did with "disappointing" earnings that I considered a buying opportunity.  We never got taken in by Thursday’s strong action as the S&P couldn’t break my 1,555 target, even as the Dow pushed over 14,000.

On Friday I cautioned not to be taken in by a strong Asian performance because our markets had information that they didn’t during their trading day, China was hiking rates.  We were mainly in cash and extremely well hedged though so the drop was actually a blessing on option expiration day as our poor callers got hammered all the way into the close.  We’ll see if we get follow through to the downside this week but 13,800 held up well on Friday and we are naked on many of our leaps (but well hedged with index puts) and ready for anything.

Needless to say it was a spectacular week from a virtual portfolio perspective:

We closed 141 positions (expiration week) with a 147% average gain as many, many, many of our poor callers expired worthless.  Of course we had some ridiculous gainers that pumped up the average and the gain on cash was a much tamer 52% as we struggled to get back to 2/3 cash by the week’s end.  That leaves us with 73 open positions that have an average gain of 52% but those low percentage/high dollar value DIA and QQQQ positions ran the total Short-Term Virtual Portfolio gain up another 50% for the week, now up 277% for the year.  This is an interesting thing as I’ve never left this much cash in play before but, since we started the year with just $400K and now have $1.5M, it only takes a 13% gain on the total to add 50% to the starting basis.  Also helping boost the STP’s gians is the fact that we hedge ALL the virtual portfolios with index options there and the accidental pay-off there was a huge windfall.

Still, no matter how well the STP does, it can’t hold a candle to our simple little Free Picks Virtual Portfolio, which gained another $14K as we took Google puts and Apple calls off the table in addition to the previously mentioned refinery plays.  Since the starting basis back on 4/30 was just $25K, $14,000 gave our total returns a boost all the way up to 377% with just 10 open positions remaining, also at about 2/3 cash (but not very well hedged).  Almost 1/2 of the open balance is the GOOG Sept $530s (we rolled for position) and we will quickly sell Aug $520s against them if things don’t go well.

Our $10K Virtual Portfolio finally made a bit of a comeback and 9 open positions there are down "just" 12% halfway through our second month.  We have very little cash there and we will have to either make some sales or cash out some positions as we still have a lot  of work to do to get this thing back on track!

The Long-Term Virtual Portfolio gave us a nice 11% gain on the week and our 36 open positions have a 150% gain for the year.  We have 22 open calls and just 4 puts (but a ton of DIA puts in the STP as cover) as I decided to see how the Dow handles 13,800 before selling too many calls.  Let’s not forget that early last week, we were crying about how many of our callers were in the money…   As we prepare to roll the second half of the alphabet this week, we are half cash going into the week.

The Stock Virtual Portfolio was the least sexy of all our efforts, gaining just a point on the week.  Our 6 remaining positions are up 37% for the year and we are in 2/3 cash there as well but I simply haven’t seen a stock I’ve wanted to buy since mid-June.  

Complex Spreads were again a very pleasant surprise with a huge gain on the week as we played our heavy Google and Apple positions perfectly, driving us to another 45% jump off our May 1st basis of just $150k.  25 remaining open positions are up 124% for the 3 month period but we still have too much riding on Apple and I will have to wrestle with that as we fly into earnings on Wednesday.  Our current Apple mix is:

Description Cost Basis Opened Days Gain/Loss $ %
AAPL
20 JAN 150.00 AAPL CALL (VAAAW) $ 27,610.00 5/10/2007 74
$ 32,590.00 118.0 %
40 OCT 140.00 AAPL CALL (APVJH) $ 18,810.00 7/2/2007 21
$ 42,790.00 227.5 %
10 AUG 135.00 AAPL CALL (APVHG) $ 14,000.00 7/11/2007 12
$ -7,610.00 -119.1 %
-10 AUG 135.00 AAPL PUT (APVTG) $ 4,700.00 7/11/2007 12
$ 3,690.00 44.0 %
25 AUG 140.00 AAPL CALL (APVHH) $ 11,885.00 7/13/2007 10
$ 15,365.00 129.3 %
40 AUG 135.00 AAPL PUT (APVTG) $ 18,810.00 7/20/2007 3
$ -810.00 -4.3 %
-20 AUG 150.00 AAPL CALL (APVHJ) $ 13,000.00 7/20/2007 3
$ -10.00 -0.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for AAPL:  $86,005.00     79%

As you can see, we added 40 Aug $135 puts to protect the open balance over the weekend.  We had been watching the action on these as we sold the same puts as part of a straddle back on the 11th and the discount seemed attractive as Apple headed the other way.  We can only hope for some volatility so we can see how our mix holds up but our goal is to work into a tight strangle, much like the way we played Google.  As much as we love Apple, it is hard to reconcile taking a 79% gain into earnings!

Have a great weekend - our very lengthy list of closed positions follows:

Description

  Basis

Open

 Sale Price

Sold

 Gain/Loss

%

10 JUL 17.00 $VIX CALL (VIXGR)  $         -   7/11  $       940 7/20  $        940 100%
10 AUG 140.00 AAPL CALL (APVHH)  $    4,760 7/12  $  10,990 7/20  $     6,230 131%
20 JUL 130.00 AAPL CALL (APVGF)  $         -   7/5  $       490 7/20  $        490 100%
40 JUL 130.00 AAPL CALL (APVGF)  $  44,010 7/3  $    9,990 7/20  $  (34,020) -77%
20 OCT 125.00 AAPL CALL (APVJE)  $    4,810 5/25  $  39,990 7/18  $   35,180 731%
10 OCT 125.00 AAPL CALL (APVJE)  $    2,410 5/25  $  19,490 7/18  $   17,080 709%
40 OCT 30.00 ABX CALL (ABXJF)  $    5,820 5/18  $  18,390 7/18  $   12,570 216%
5 OCT 40.00 AU CALL (AUJH)  $    1,160 7/6  $    3,365 7/20  $     2,205 190%
15 JUL 67.50 AXP CALL (AXPGU)  $        85 5/22  $         -   7/20  $        (85) -100%
20 JUL 100.00 BA CALL (BAGT)  $    5,510 6/14  $    4,990 7/20  $       (520) -9%
10 JUL 47.50 BBY CALL (BBYGW)  $         -   7/5  $       990 7/20  $        990 100%
40 AUG 45.00 BTU PUT (BTUTI)  $    3,610 6/28  $    6,590 7/18  $     2,980 83%
40 AUG 45.00 BTU PUT (BTUTI)  $    3,610 6/28  $    5,390 7/17  $     1,780 49%
20 AUG 30.00 BX CALL (BXHF)  $    2,310 7/12  $    1,190 7/19  $    (1,120) -49%
10 JUL 85.00 CAT CALL (CATGQ)  $    1,910 7/13  $    1,990 7/18  $         80 4%
40 JUL 15.00 CC CALL (CCGC)  $         -   6/26  $    4,390 7/20  $     4,390 100%
20 JUL 85.00 CLF CALL (CLFGQ)  $         -   7/19  $    3,990 7/20  $     3,990 100%
5 AUG 90.00 CLF CALL (CLFHR)  $      385 7/12  $    1,215 7/20  $        830 216%
5 JUL 85.00 CLF CALL (CLFGQ)  $      260 7/12  $       240 7/20  $        (20) -8%
20 JUL 85.00 CLF CALL (CLFGQ)  $    2,610 7/6  $    5,490 7/18  $     2,880 110%
10 JUL 120.00 CMI CALL (CDMGD)  $         -   7/9  $    3,240 7/20  $     3,240 100%
20 JUL 75.00 COF CALL (COFGO)  $    3,010 7/11  $    4,030 7/19  $     1,020 34%
10 JUL 90.00 COP CALL (COPGR)  $         -   7/13  $    1,490 7/20  $     1,490 100%
20 JUL 50.00 CROX CALL (CQJGJ)  $         -   7/11  $        90 7/20  $         90 100%
200 AUG 139.00 DIA PUT (DAZTI)  $  44,810 7/18  $  58,990 7/20  $   14,180 32%
100 AUG 140.00 DIA CALL (DAZHJ)  $  16,510 7/18  $  18,990 7/20  $     2,480 15%
250 JUL 138.00 DIA PUT (DAZSH)  $         -   7/12  $    7,490 7/20  $     7,490 100%
30 JUL 139.00 DIA CALL (DAZGI)  $         -   7/17  $    4,040 7/20  $     4,040 100%
400 AUG 140.00 DIA PUT (DAZTJ)  $122,010 6/25  $119,990 7/18  $    (2,020) -2%
100 AUG 139.00 DIA CALL (DAZHI)  $  16,510 7/12  $  30,990 7/17  $   14,480 88%
75 AUG 138.00 DIA CALL (DAZHH)    $      385 6/8  $  26,240 7/16  $   25,855 6716%
120 JUL 37.50 DIS CALL (DISGU)  $    1,810 5/25  $         -   7/20  $    (1,810) -100%
60 JUL 35.00 DIS CALL (DISGG)   $    1,390 6/6  $         -   7/20  $    (1,390) -100%
80 JUL 37.50 DIS CALL (DISGU)  $    1,690 5/29  $         -   7/20  $    (1,690) -100%
50 JUL 75.00 DNA CALL (DWNGO)  $    1,510 7/12  $    1,740 7/18  $        230 15%
30 JUL 75.00 DNA CALL (DWNGO)  $    1,210 7/11  $    5,690 7/18  $     4,480 370%
15 AUG 100.00 DO PUT (DOTT)  $    5,035 7/2  $    5,165 7/17  $        130 3%
25 OCT 35.00 EBAY CALL (XBAJG)  $    1,635 5/16  $    5,615 7/18  $     3,980 243%
10 AUG 60.00 ECA PUT (ECATL)  $      960 7/12  $    1,090 7/18  $        130 14%
20 JUL 60.00 EDU CALL (EDUGL)  $         -   7/13  $        90 7/20  $         90 100%
8 JUL 12.50 FIZZ CALL (FIZGV)  $         -   6/1  $    1,150 7/20  $     1,150 100%
40 JUL 30.00 FNF CALL (FNFGF)  $    1,130 6/1  $         -   7/20  $    (1,130) -100%
40 AUG 45.00 FTO PUT (FTOTI)  $    3,810 7/11  $    7,990 7/18  $     4,180 110%
3 JUL 100.00 FWLT PUT (UFBST)  $         -   6/22  $       650 7/20  $        650 100%
20 JUL 139.00 FXI CALL (FAHGJ)  $         -   7/6  $    5,190 7/20  $     5,190 100%
30 SEP 38.00 GDX CALL (GDXIL)  $    7,810 7/2  $  16,490 7/19  $     8,680 111%
5 JUL 25.00 GLW CALL (GLWGE)  $      810 6/20  $       790 7/18  $        (20) -3%
10 JUL 35.00 GM PUT (GMSG)  $      160 6/19  $       190 7/20  $         30 19%
10 AUG 530.00 GOOG PUT (GOPTW)  $  11,910 7/9  $  23,990 7/20  $   12,080 101%
15 JUL 540.00 GOOG CALL (GOPGX)  $         -   7/5  $    1,490 7/20  $     1,490 100%
10 AUG 530.00 GOOG PUT (GOPTW)  $  11,910 7/9  $  22,990 7/20  $   11,080 93%
10 JUL 550.00 GOOG CALL (GOPGY)  $         -   7/13  $  13,490 7/20  $   13,490 100%
10 AUG 530.00 GOOG PUT (GOPTW)  $  18,210 6/30  $  23,990 7/20  $     5,780 32%
20 AUG 540.00 GOOG PUT (GOPTX)  $  26,410 7/13  $  60,990 7/20  $   34,580 131%
20 JUL 530.00 GOOG PUT (GOPSW)  $  17,010 7/13  $    8,990 7/20  $    (8,020) -47%
10 JUL 570.00 GOOG CALL (GOPGQ)  $         -   7/16  $    7,990 7/20  $     7,990 100%
10 JUL 550.00 GOOG PUT (GOPSY)  $  10,010 7/16  $  36,990 7/20  $   26,980 270%
15 SEP 550.00 GOOG CALL (GOPIY)  $  16,510 6/20  $  44,915 7/18  $   28,405 172%
5 AUG 500.00 GOOG PUT (GOPTO)  $    5,910 6/22  $    2,990 7/18  $    (2,920) -49%
5 JUL 510.00 GOOG PUT (GOPSU)  $    1,210 6/22  $    6,490 7/18  $     5,280 436%
5 JUL 520.00 GOOG CALL (GOPGV)  $  16,010 6/22  $    8,240 7/18  $    (7,770) -49%
5 AUG 530.00 GOOG CALL (GOPHW)  $    7,660 6/22  $  16,490 7/18  $     8,830 115%
10 JUL 540.00 GOOG CALL (GOPGX)  $  17,510 7/13  $  13,990 7/18  $    (3,520) -20%
7 JUL 560.00 GOOG CALL (GOPGZ)  $    6,310 7/13  $    6,150 7/16  $       (160) -3%
4 AUG 530.00 GOOG CALL (GOPHW)  $    6,810 6/30  $  14,990 7/16  $     8,180 120%
4 JUL 550.00 GOOG CALL (GOPGY)  $    5,610 7/13  $    5,390 7/16  $       (220) -4%
10 JUL 50.00 GSK CALL (GSKGJ)  $    2,710 6/1  $    2,640 7/20  $        (70) -3%
10 AUG 75.00 HOC PUT (HOCTO)  $    2,010 7/13  $    2,990 7/20  $        980 49%
10 AUG 75.00 HOC PUT (HOCTO)  $    1,910 7/13  $    3,090 7/18  $     1,180 62%
12 JUL 110.00 IBM PUT (IBMSB)  $    2,170 7/16  $    1,850 7/18  $       (320) -15%
5 JUL 110.00 IBM CALL (IBMGB)  $      760 7/18  $    1,365 7/16  $        605 80%
20 JUL 70.00 IGW CALL (IGWGN)  $    1,510 4/26  $       590 7/20  $       (920) -61%
40 JUL 25.00 INTC CALL (INQGE)  $         -   7/18  $    1,390 7/20  $     1,390 100%
40 AUG 25.00 INTC CALL (INQHE)  $    3,200 7/18  $    2,990 7/20  $       (210) -7%
5 JUL 25.00 IOC PUT (IOCSE)  $      785 7/9  $    1,615 7/20  $        830 106%
5 JUL 22.50 IOC CALL (IOCGX)  $    2,110 7/9  $        90 7/20  $    (2,020) -96%
15 JUL 65.00 ISE CALL (ISEGM)  $    1,360 6/15  $    1,865 7/20  $        505 37%
5 JUL 40.00 JOSB CALL (QZSGH)  $         -   6/8  $    2,390 7/20  $     2,390 100%
10 JUL 50.00 JWN CALL (JWNGJ)  $         -   5/21  $    1,140 7/20  $     1,140 100%
10 JUL 50.00 JWN CALL (JWNGJ)  $         -   6/7  $       (10) 7/20  $        (10) 100%
5 JUL 20.00 KNOT CALL (BQCGD)  $         -   6/14  $        65 7/20  $         65 100%
10 JUL 52.50 KO CALL (KOGX)  $      710 6/20  $       690 7/20  $        (20) -3%
30 AUG 75.00 LEH CALL (LESHO)  $    3,460 7/18  $    2,540 7/20  $       (920) -27%
30 JUL 80.00 LVS PUT (LVSSP)  $      310 6/20  $    8,990 7/18  $     8,680 2800%
20 JUL 155.00 MA PUT (MALSK)  $    3,510 7/10  $         -   7/20  $    (3,510) -100%
30 AUG 52.50 MCD CALL (MCDHX)  $    2,860 6/28  $    4,340 7/18  $     1,480 52%
20 JUL 17.50 MRVL CALL (UVMGW)  $    3,610 6/20  $    1,490 7/19  $    (2,120) -59%
50 JUL 32.50 MSFT CALL (MSQGZ)  $      610 5/23  $         -   7/20  $       (610) -100%
50 JUL 32.50 MSFT CALL (MSQGZ)  $      610 5/23  $    1,240 7/20  $        630 103%
40 JUL 32.50 MSFT CALL (MSQGZ)  $         -   7/19  $       990 7/20  $        990 100%
120 JUL 30.00 MSFT CALL (MSQGK)  $    8,050 7/10  $    6,230 7/17  $    (1,820) -23%
20 JUL 140.00 NMX CALL (NMXGH)  $         -   7/12  $    6,190 7/20  $     6,190 100%
20 JUL 175.00 OIH CALL (ODLGO)  $    6,010 6/22  $    6,990 7/18  $        980 16%
20 JUL 180.00 OIH CALL (ODLGP)  $    1,510 7/17  $    3,890 7/18  $     2,380 158%
60 JUL 15.00 OVEN CALL (TCFGC)  $    2,050 5/24  $         -   7/20  $    (2,050) -100%
10 JUL 15.00 OVTI CALL (UCMGC)  $    3,410 4/30  $    1,440 7/18  $    (1,970) -58%
20 JUL 27.50 OXPS CALL (QYBGY)  $         -   6/18  $    2,190 7/20  $     2,190 100%
5 JUL 25.00 OXPS CALL (QYBGE)  $    1,310 6/19  $    1,240 7/20  $        (70) -5%
5 JUL 25.00 OXPS CALL (QYBGE)  $    1,310 6/7  $       865 7/20  $       (445) -34%
50 JUL 22.50 PGR CALL (PGRGX)  $         -   6/7  $    8,490 7/20  $     8,490 100%
40 JUL 150.00 PTR PUT (PTRSJ)  $         -   7/2  $  15,990 7/20  $   15,990 100%
40 JUL 145.00 PTR PUT (PTRSI)  $  15,010 6/4  $         -   7/20  $  (15,010) -100%
20 AUG 150.00 PTR PUT (PTRTJ)  $    5,810 7/5  $    7,190 7/18  $     1,380 24%
200 AUG 51.00 QQQQ PUT (QQQTY)  $  25,610 7/18  $  28,990 7/20  $     3,380 13%
10 JUL 25.00 RHT CALL (RHTGE)  $         -   6/20  $        40 7/20  $         40 100%
45 AUG 100.00 RIG PUT (RIGTT)  $    9,325 6/27  $    8,990 7/18  $       (335) -4%
10 JUL 230.00 RIMM CALL (RFYGF)  $      510 7/6  $    2,990 7/20  $     2,480 486%
10 JUL 230.00 RIMM CALL (RFYGF)  $    2,510 7/13  $    4,740 7/18  $     2,230 89%
5 JUL 330.00 RTP CALL (RTPGA)  $         -   7/10  $    1,740 7/20  $     1,740 100%
70 JUL 27.50 SBUX CALL (SQXGY)  $      360 6/7  $    4,190 7/18  $     3,830 1064%
40 JUL 25.00 SBUX CALL (SQXGE)  $    4,410 6/7  $    4,390 7/18  $        (20) -1%
20 JUL 155.00 SHLD CALL (KDUGK)  $         -   7/10  $       190 7/20  $        190 100%
10 JUL 155.00 SHLD CALL (KDUGK)  $         -   6/19  $        90 7/20  $         90 100%
50 JUL 3.00 SIRI CALL (QXOGG)  $      510 7/5  $       740 7/20  $        230 45%
40 AUG 85.00 SLB PUT (SLBTQ)  $    5,450 7/13  $    8,390 7/18  $     2,940 54%
10 JUL 70.00 SPWR CALL (QSUGN)  $         -   7/13  $        70 7/20  $         70 100%
30 AUG 22.50 STX CALL (STXHX)  $    3,010 7/2  $    4,490 7/18  $     1,480 49%
20 JUL 40.00 T CALL (TGH)  $         -   7/13  $       (10) 7/20  $        (10) 100%
50 AUG 15.00 TASR CALL (QURHC)  $  11,010 7/9  $  11,240 7/19  $        230 2%
10 JUL 35.00 TIE CALL (TIEGG)  $         -   7/13  $       490 7/20  $        490 100%
30 JUL 125.00 TM CALL (TMGE)  $      310 6/15  $       590 7/18  $        280 90%
20 JUL 125.00 TM CALL (TMGE)  $      210 6/22  $       790 7/18  $        580 276%
4 JUL 57.50 TSO PUT (TSOSZ)  $      710 7/6  $       430 7/19  $       (280) -39%
20 AUG 57.50 TSO PUT (TSOTZ)  $    3,910 5/2  $    7,390 7/18  $     3,480 89%
20 AUG 50.00 UNH CALL (UHBHJ)  $    4,110 7/19  $    4,990 7/20  $        880 21%
50 AUG 75.00 VLO PUT (ZPYTO)  $    8,010 7/10  $  13,990 7/18  $     5,980 75%
50 AUG 75.00 VLO PUT (ZPYTO)  $    8,010 7/10  $  12,990 7/17  $     4,980 62%
20 JUL 60.00 WFR CALL (WFRGL)  $         -   7/2  $    3,190 7/20  $     3,190 100%
10 JUL 115.00 WHR CALL (WHRGC)  $         -   7/19  $       490 7/20  $        490 100%
10 SEP 55.00 WNR PUT (WNRUK)  $    1,910 7/13  $    3,890 7/20  $     1,980 104%
10 SEP 55.00 WNR PUT (WNRUK)  $    1,910 7/13  $    3,090 7/17  $     1,180 62%
10 AUG 115.00 X CALL (XHC)  $    4,810 7/9  $    5,690 7/16  $        880 18%
10 JUL 70.00 XLE PUT (XBTSR)  $         -   7/2  $       190 7/20  $        190 100%
50 AUG 72.00 XLE CALL (XBTHT)  $  10,510 7/9  $  18,490 7/19  $     7,980 76%
10 AUG 72.00 XLE CALL (XBTHT)  $    2,110 7/9  $    3,090 7/16  $        980 46%
20 JUL 80.00 XOM PUT (XOMSP)  $         -   6/29  $       890 7/20  $        890 100%
250 JUL 90.00 XOM PUT (XOMSR)  $    7,550 7/18  $         -   7/20  $    (7,550) -100%
250 JUL 90.00 XOM PUT (XOMSR)  $    7,550 7/18  $    2,490 7/19  $    (5,060) -67%
100 JUL 85.00 XOM PUT (XOMSQ)  $      510 7/5  $    3,990 7/17  $     3,480 682%
5 JUL 27.50 YHOO CALL (YHQGY)  $         -   5/25  $        40 7/20  $         40 100%
20 JUL 27.50 YHOO CALL (YHQGY)  $         -   5/25  $       190 7/20  $        190 100%
50 JUL 35.00 YUM CALL (YUMGG)  $         -   7/11  $       240 7/20  $        240 100%

 

 


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  1. Morning, Phil.

    Above you have the statement:

    Also helpful on Wednesday was my intra-day bottom call which got us out of index puts and into index calls mid day but then back in index calls as we over-corrected in the afternoon. Just keeping up with the old James Bond investing techniques!

    Did you mean “but then back in index PUTS as we over-corrected”? Just checking.

    Have a great week everybody!


  2. Hmm – I could have said that better. We sold our calls in the morning, bought calls around noon, sold puts around mid-day, bought more calls and then loaded up on puts again at EOD. The big sell was the Aug $140 puts which came in at -2% but that was a $40K+ gain as those were the ones we had rolled several times and were way behind. Sometimes getting out even (or even a little behind) is as good as a win if you keep things in perspective!


  3. If a stock goes up in value by say, $1/share, is there a way to forecast how much the call’s value will increase? Is that what “alpha” tells you? Or, ???


  4. good morning all

    phil,
    WFR – i now own a good amount of this stock since the puts i sold got exercized. is this a stock i should hold on to for a while, or am i better off selling it? i’ve read everything i can about it and still can’t tell. any guidance will be appreciated.
    thanks so much!


  5. NFLX – Ouch! Down hard in pre-market, perhaps due to them lowering prices again.


  6. MCD – Looks like it may go flying today.


  7. OIH – Phil, any recommendations on positions given the RIG-GSF merger?