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Wednesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted July 24, 2007 at 9:41 am | Permalink (Edit)

X – I’d be getting out even in this mess – this could turn horribly ugly if we break below the levels I set in the morning post – only gold is up, not a good sign. Don’t forget to layer your mattress plays!!

Posted July 24, 2007 at 9:51 am | Permalink (Edit)
We held 13,820 again, that’s a good thing! Let’s watch that NYSE 10,000 too! We lost the Nasdaq and the S&P and if they don’t retake their levels, it will most likely be a matter of time before the others follow them down.
Posted July 24, 2007 at 10:03 am | Permalink (Edit)

HOC off a nice cliff!

T has turned, AAPL should follow. They are holding $138.50 (last Wed’s highs before the jump) so this is really just a gap fill if they hold it. They want you out of your calls REAL bad… I’m not giving up on my puts but I smell the same rat in Apple’s dip as I did in oil’s rise last week.

Took profits on DIA $140 puts, usually there’s a good chance to rebuy and, if not, I’ll just switch to the $139 puts. GOOG is UP! SHLD is up. YHOO is up… Someone is buying the dip! XXX

Posted July 24, 2007 at 10:19 am | Permalink (Edit)

SUN – why do I keep forgetting to play them (kick, kick).

BA – if they blow it let’s just all vow to cash out and get on a slow boat to China as this country is over.
Just because I love them, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t cover 1/2 with the $105 calls at $2.40!

EDU – well, I said I will happily roll down.. looks like I lied about the happy part!

Uh oh! Dip buying runs into relentless selling, DIA $138 puts are nearing $2 buy point but I’d rather wait until we actually break below 13,800. XXX

BIDU really taking off, if they break $185 things could get interesting but who in their right mind would pay those option prices? I’m going to go with a small 4:3 spread of the Sept $185s, now $20.30 and I will sell 3/4 the Aug $180s on the turn but just 8 I think… XXX

Posted July 24, 2007 at 11:06 am | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – on the button Z! Weakness is really showing in FTO, HOC, WNR, SUN – funny how it takes a real slap in the face to get the bulls to wake up and smell the numbers.

CCJ – at this point I just roll and roll to lower strikes. I’m taking the stance that everyone else is wrong and I’m right and luckily I can afford to as everyone else WAS wrong (except Z) about XOM, COP, VLO, OII, PTR and SU so I’m a little ahead of the game today…

PFE Sept $25s back to .70 – we got 1/2 out at .85 yesterday for a nice .55 basis and at .65 or .60 for sure they are worth a shot. XXX

GOOG – why does everyone ask about getting in AFTER it recovers? I’m too worried about $520 to want to jump in fresh here and the $520s we sold yesterday were very, very good to us this morning so I’m not worried about my naked Septembers but I will sell those $520s again, now $12.75 if I can get $13.50 again as I just bought back my caller for $9 so that seems like a pretty good one-day premium against my $8 Sept $550s (basis now -.50). Rather than sell again just yet, I”m more likely to roll down a level if we get another good dip, especailly if $512 holds.

Getting out of oil ahead of inventory, had plenty of fun, will see which way the wind blows tomorrow.

Watch those financial/housing puts, I see a lot of them putting in bottoms at the same time which may mean someone is drawing a line around here.

IMB – like a train wreck. I’m going to join the inevitable class action suit against that guy if they actually have problems he claimed they didn’t!

DNDN – there’s the usual rumors that they are talkign to the FDA (they are always talking to the FDA, it’s what companied conducting studies do!) but it could be something as simple as us loading up on $10s when they were a nickel causing Jonh Nagerian to see “heavy buying activity” in his heat seeker service and telling other people to buy more $10s because “someone knows something.” I’m 1/2 out at .15 of course!

BIDU – sorry I mean selling 3 contracts for each 4 I hold. Sometimes, if you don’t like a strike price, you can adjust the risk factor by doing a ratio spread rather than just a straight sale.

Posted July 24, 2007 at 12:03 pm | Permalink (Edit)

KNOT – Jan $20s for $2.10, sell the Sept $20s for $1.05.

CCJ – Jan ‘09 $50s at $6.85, sell Sept $45s for $2.15. Both of these have terrible charts so its a big gamble.

BIDU might hold here so get ready to buy out $180 caller at $16 (if I can get $15 I will take it, then set a $1.50 stop on the Septs from that point). XXX

Posted July 24, 2007 at 12:26 pm | Permalink (Edit)

VLO group turning up – be careful with those oil puts. Watch $73.50 for a bad upside that can be covered by SUN $75s for $1.90 (was $4 yesterday) or the COP $85 calls for $1.70 (was $3 yesterday). XXX

Posted July 24, 2007 at 12:50 pm | Permalink (Edit)
EDU – I like to let my collections dictate my roll so I’ve got $3 from my $60 caller (projected) so I may as well roll down to the $55s and sell those against my other half (setting a $1 stop on the $60 calls that I sold against the other half).

BA – like I said, if they don’t beat it’s time to learn Mandarin but they are now offering $3.05 for the $105s which I cannot not take a half cover with as THAT would be communist!

Posted July 24, 2007 at 1:50 pm | Permalink (Edit)
AAPL – those morning plays were mo trades! Do not leave them on overnight!! If you are way up and way ahead then flip maybe 1/2 the profits to the $145s if you are feeling daring but since I already have positions, I’ll be all out by the day’s end. XXX NEVER FORGET WHY YOU ENTERED A TRADE!
CTRP – nice play but I see a failure at the 50% retracement of the 2 day drop at $84.50 so I’d be taking it and running. I realize it sounds like a strong play based on what we are hearing from the airlines so far but you made a great play on it, isn’t it time to look for your next opportunity rather than dwelling on the past?

BIDU – out of the Septs down $1 for $2 gain on the whole trade, plenty for a day trade! XXX

Posted July 24, 2007 at 2:07 pm | Permalink (Edit)
WFR – in keeping with my theme for the day – how could you not take $3.50 for the $60s on half your open position (was $4 an hour ago). The stock has to gain more than 5% before you do more than give him his money back. XXX
AMZN – yes, I will be surprised if they gap up but I have a 1 month buffer.

QCOM – same thing, I don’t care how much you like them, someone is offering to pay you $1.20 for $45s that are 2.5% out of the money ahead of uncertainty. That’s 25% of your contract, if you sell just half that’s a 12% buffer

Back in a little while – don’t forget your mattress plays!! XXX

Posted July 24, 2007 at 2:56 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Well I was hoping I would miss something but just more of the same…

A lot of things look like they are getting ready for a second leg down! CEO, RIMM, PTR, XOM, CVX.. heck everything!!!

Posted July 24, 2007 at 2:59 pm | Permalink (Edit)

What the hell did Greenspan say??? There goes 13,800!

Posted July 24, 2007 at 3:07 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DNDN still positive… BA still up – I can’t imagine what market they think they are in. Apple, not good at all now. FWLT making me very happy… SBUX holding up!

BG on my list now, $80 puts for $1.12 XXX

Posted July 24, 2007 at 3:11 pm | Permalink (Edit)

CTRP – ask me later, good discussion to have!

I’m debating whether or not there’s even any point to getting back into DIA calls at this point – total disaster! DIA $137 puts are about to cross at $2, now $1.85 and I’ll be holding quite a few overnight if we can’t get a recovery (not likely) as this kind of thing can spread around the world overnight. XXX

Posted July 24, 2007 at 3:27 pm | Permalink (Edit)

LOL, now YRCW makes a 52-week low, I knew that seemed odd before…

Looks like we’re heading to 13,700 anyway.

Remember – before you buy anything you must say “IT IS NOT MY JOB TO SAVE THE MARKET”

Posted July 24, 2007 at 3:43 pm | Permalink (Edit)

BX down around 25 – incredible. They will make a nice pick-up when the market turns, lots of buy opportunites for them. FIG also at new lows.

Speaking of straddles – $135 was my straddle target on Apple (complex spread virtual portfolio). That went from being down $4K to even today! AAPL is so funny, worst loss in 7 years because their new phone only sold 148K in one day at $500 a pop – totally irrational…

Maybe that VIX guy was right…

Here’s 13,700, let’s see if it holds.

Posted July 24, 2007 at 3:52 pm | Permalink (Edit)
This is the hardest part for me, I got so many calls off the table I’m sure I’m way overprotected to the downside but I don’t have a good feel for the new mix. I think if the markets are going to be saved, it’’ll be the Qs that do it so I’m going to take 300 QQQQ $50s in addition to 300 DIA $140s ($1) as an upside cover. XXX

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