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Thursday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted August 30, 2007 at 9:48 am | Permalink (Edit)

AAPL going well, I’m getting out of Sept DIA puts but will rebuy if we break back below -100. XXX

Posted August 30, 2007 at 9:54 am | Permalink (Edit)

GRMN, TASR, CROX, AAPL, RIMM – nasdaq is flying so I’m going with QQQQ $46s as a mo play, $2.60 with a .15 stop. XXX

Posted August 30, 2007 at 10:09 am | Permalink (Edit)

I am not buying into this rally, just playing the motions so please note that a lot of moves I am making here are quickie trades where I’m very happy to make 10%. If I do not XXX a trade, then it is a trade I am discussing or telling you about but not a trade I think would be good for the average person and, if you are a $10KP player, then you shouldn’t be doing those either in this market.

Down 50 is not bullish and I said yesterday thad GDP 4+ would rally (or was it 3.9) but now we have a battle between traders who think the economy is fundamentally sound and will grow its way out of trouble and the ones who think we are dying and we need a shot of Fed relief, which is less likely to come with good growth. We held our levels on that drop and I said I would be impressed so I am for now.

Posted August 30, 2007 at 10:34 am | Permalink (Edit)

Another nat gas build, 44BCF and they are OUT OF ROOM to store it. We could be heading back down to $4 if there is no hurricane season.

I’m mildly concerned about the Qs if the Dow doesn’t catch up so half out with a .10 stop on the rest. XXX

Posted August 30, 2007 at 10:41 am | Permalink (Edit)

Be careful, looks toppy now… Working my way back into DIA $133 puts now at $2.83 and $132 puts at $2.42, saved about .20 by dumping earlier and stepping back in so I don’t have to be too careful. XXX

Posted August 30, 2007 at 10:50 am | Permalink (Edit)

AAPL – actually for $7 I’m selling those $135s myself against 1/2 of my longer plays! XXX

Posted August 30, 2007 at 11:02 am | Permalink (Edit)

Pushing back to neutral at the moment and bulking up my squeeze as Bernanke can send us below 13K tomorrow or back to 13,500 with a single word (Imagine the power!).

Posted August 30, 2007 at 11:20 am | Permalink (Edit)

GO Dow!!!!

Picking up QQQQ $48s at $1.55 with tight stops and will turn around and sell these on a pullback very quickly. Rolling up my DIA calls per mattress rules (what the hell?)

Posted August 30, 2007 at 11:46 am | Permalink (Edit)

QQQQ – now I’m squeezing the Qs with the $48 puts at .70 in a 2:1 ratio to the $48 calls if they can’t hold 2,585

Posted August 30, 2007 at 12:47 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Index put Xs – they are very dangerous plays and are Xs for people who are too heavy with calls but I do not generally recommend them as a trade. The Qs seemed like a very high probablility to the upside, which is the only reason I hit those earlier. If the Dow breaks 13,260 then you could do a mo play on the DIA $132 puts at $2.35 but you have to be really careful until we get below 13,250 where a bounce back and a break back over 13,260 should have you taking the money and running. If you can’t accept a quick loss like that and move on, these plays are not for you as there are too many random factors that can hit you at any time. Also, if you can’t say I made 10 cents as happily as you can say I made a triple then this also is not a trade for you.

There’s news on CNBC that the market dropped on nerve gas found at the UN so now I have to cover the upside again! This is getting annoying but I’m going to even out (against my will) with DIA $134s, mainly because they’re just $2.10.

Posted August 30, 2007 at 12:50 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Hmm, spoke too soon, not looking neccessary on the $134s but it’s tee’d up.

Posted August 30, 2007 at 1:16 pm | Permalink (Edit)

The market internals are weaking so now I’m glad again that I didn’t hit the additional DIA calls… very schitzo day so far.

Posted August 30, 2007 at 1:26 pm | Permalink (Edit)

2:1 puts!

Posted August 30, 2007 at 1:32 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Interesting that gold is not going up, big disappointment for the miners but a Fed cut should change that. Brokers turning down, Apple must be covered, $135s are my choice. GOOG $510s are always a fun sell…

Sold FXI $146 calls for (LOL) $8.30 – these things were only $9 when the FXI was at $154! XXX if you have that kind of account.

Posted August 30, 2007 at 2:05 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Now I have to cover closer to even, maybe 60/40 on the index put/call ratio, which does little more than protect my calls on the whole… Can’t risk it since I won’t be back until noon I think.

Posted August 30, 2007 at 2:21 pm | Permalink (Edit)

BSC – just 10 of the $120s. Haven’t seen anything yet to entice me to take another round and plenty of time to wait.

Where am I going tomorrow? Project meeting. Where am I going with my DIA direction, I’m trying to stay on the right side of a pop but I don’t want to get overly bearish. Also, sometimes you can overprotect, the STP made a 30% (of the original basis) jump this week so really all I should worry about is not losing that. At a certain point, you are covering the gains on gains and putting more and more capital at risk when you only really win when you cash out.

On that note, I’m out of winners like SNDK, TGT here, not going to wait for them to drop, and I’m going to try to whittle my way back to more cash.

Posted August 30, 2007 at 2:43 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Yummy XOM puts – going to go for it with the $85 puts at $1.75 with a .25 stop. XXX

Posted August 30, 2007 at 2:47 pm | Permalink (Edit)

AAPL 2010s – I think I like the 150s best, you can always roll up and out later but if you have window issues, you can use the mix you have to aggressively sell the Oct $140s at $7.40 against the lower two with the $200s offering some degree of upside protection. That’s a 20% ROI plus $6 of headroom for 50 days – not bad…

Posted August 30, 2007 at 2:52 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Naked XOM puts – yes. I was going to short oil into a run-up over the weekend (my plan from Monday) so I’m starting with them. Once they make me a dime I’ll be brave enough to add the CVX $85 puts, now $1.20, which were $2.40 on Tuesday and haven’t been lower than $1.20 since early July (although they are, of course expiring now so not entirely comparable). XXX

Posted August 30, 2007 at 3:07 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Will 13,200 hold? Remember we had a crappy open aand I was going to be happy to hold much lower levels so don’t get cocky on the short side! I have now switched my trigger finger order to the $133s, now $2.40 and I will buy a block (100) $2.10 as my basis on the existing ones is just $2.18 or, if we turn back up, I will buy the $134s before they hit $2.

AAPL 10s – yeah but so will the box below you when you roll to it! Also, I think the extra 12 sales you’re buying should make up for it… That vega will put those calls out of your price range on the way up and you are bullish right?

XOM – not even close yet. Dont want them badly enough to overpay.

Posted August 30, 2007 at 3:17 pm | Permalink (Edit)

XOM – 10 min chart looked out of gas and I remembered I meant to short oil. Since XOMs are entirely liquid, I feel safest making an entry with them (don’t forget I buy a lot) as I can change my mind and just be out a nickel or a dime. What really triggered it was I glanced at the intra-day NYMEX chart and saw a blatant last-dich pump that still closed negative coupled with my two theories that holiday driving will be a bust and that the barrel count for November will screw up the rolling process this month.

Meanwhile I didn’t get the XOM’s but the CVX $85s are no problem so I’m taking those at $1.20 XXX

Posted August 30, 2007 at 3:28 pm | Permalink (Edit)

XOM – damn, I can’t get filled, someone just bought 3,000 at $1.90!

Posted August 30, 2007 at 3:36 pm | Permalink (Edit)

XOM – I’m close to capitulating at $1.85 but I’ll hold out until the bitter end if I can!

Posted August 30, 2007 at 3:46 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DELL puts – I’m not bearish on that sector. Watch HPQ to turn down as Dell is weaker (HPQ is on my short list for the LTP next time they pull back). If they fail a retest of the highs, then you have a trade. Or if they fail $30 but here, at $28.50, it seems more like a coin flip.

CVX – no, that’s a DD/Roll weekend play for me. I’m playing disappionting travel numbers and nothing blowing up over the weekend.

Posted August 30, 2007 at 3:57 pm | Permalink (Edit)

XOM – couldn’t even get $1.85, Mr. 3000 blew it for me and now blocks are going for $2 – I’m fed up on this one…

Well, pretty mellow day on the whole despite the swings. Calm before the storm maybe?

Posted August 30, 2007 at 4:05 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DELL looks like a beat to me but not being taken well AH…

 


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