I agree Kustomz – not much of a rally over sensational retail numbers – couldn’t be better so great news is so-so news.
COP is ripe for a juicy fall if inventories disappoint. I’m going to start picking up the Oct $80s at $1.75 looking for $1.50 (yesterday’s low) as a play I intend to hold over the weekend. XXX
AAPL levels to watch from last night ($136.70 is upside “breakout” line):
Apple is right around the $134.20 line now, holding there indicates buying but once we fail that, we are unlikey to find many buyers before $131.76 so be careful if you are long.
CME and FXI are painful but I’m holding for now. If oil does take the energy sector down, it’s time to dump our index calls and enjoy the ride down!
COP – OOPS! Yes puts.
TSO must be slapped down here, let’s call that a mo play if we get a build. Perhaps the $50 puts…
Oil heading up to $77! SU not buying it.
My Radio verdict was not to play. Big draw in crude (3.something) with gas and distilates cancelling each other out. I simply don’t belive the numbers and SU buyers don’t believe the numbers and TSO and VLO don’t believe the numbers and the NYMEX traders don’t believe the numbers so no change in my stance re. XOM and COP, which are Octobers but I will be getting out of the CVX and XLE September puts as it’s still unclear what’s going on.
SIRI – when in doubt sell half. As far as I know, the DOJ is GOING to make a ruling. This seems to be some sort of rumor thing but they peaked at $3.28 in July on the same rumor. I have the ‘09 $2.50s with a very good profit so I’ll be covering with the $3s at .40 to lock in .20 of today’s gain.
Semis – I like cash until I hear from the Fed, if the Fed is going to tell me they intend to give money away and my cash is worthless, then I will like stocks again but right now it’s very hard to get motivated by a market that swings from 80% upside volume to 80% downside volume 3 times in 5 days.
RTP – no $100Bn buyout this month! BHP already has $24Bn in debt and no cash. RTP has no cash either so I took some Oct $290s at $11.65 as a first entry.
Oil and the Fed are rallying the markets
Poole – I love it, he’s coming out toeing the party line! Good chance to raise the puts, lets keep layering the calls but be ready to bail at 13,400.
Happy 100 will be on both sites, it’s a joint venture. He’s right about the IBMs, looking like a breakout here!
No confirmation from GOOG yet, CME still down but too dangerous to play to the downside now.
I took the IBM Oct $115s but only filled a few at $6.55, will hope for a pullback to take more.
That seemed like a long way to go to make a lower high. Our of 75 Sept DIA $133 calls for repositioning about even, will ditch the rest if we can’t break out over 13,400 & 1,480. Let’s make sure the Russell holds 790 but, as I often say – you have to respect the Big Chart levels, no matter what BS the reasons your there are…
Woo hoo on COP!
GDX – if they hold $40 you’re good but I’m no fan of September anything in this market, nothing works…
COP – it’s at the upper end of my target range ($1.75) but didn’t really fall below $1.55 so half with a possible DD later puts you in at 1/2 the best entry of the day and keeps you from missing anything.
IBM – my thought process – it did pull back to happy’s entry ($6.10) but I’m in at $6.55 so I’d like to see it at $5.70ish, and if it doesn’t hold there I’m not going to be liking a second round anyway and I’d rather wait and see what the markets do. If they turn around and blow back up, then I’m ahead on my small position but if we crash back to support at $116.50 I’ll be much happier to add there (options were at $5.35).
I think MDT is ready to pop. I don’t mind owning them long but the premiums stink for selling calls. It’s made up for by the fact that the Jan ‘10 $60s are $6 (same price they’ve been since they opened in June more or less) so we can afford to be philosophical about the entry. This is more a play on a good company (they have the coolest things in development!) than an income producer. XXX
MDT, AXP, this is not a market I’m thrilled with chasing things in, epsecially for 10% more than I intended. For example, I currently have a bid in for 10 AAPL Jan ‘10 $140s at $37.60, $1 below the ask and I’m not raising. Obviously 3% doesn’t matter much over 2+ years but if it doesn’t matter to me then it shouldn’t matter to my seller and if he won’t sell to me and Apple goes up, I will be more than happy to pay $35 for the $150s (currently bid $33.95 ask $34.30).
It’s not the 3% per se, it’s the 3% * 200 trades a month * 12 times a year. In a choppy market, those things will kill you. The same goes with fees, you can die the death of 1,000 cuts if you overtrade and give up on “the little things.”
FAF/LFG/FNF – the title companies. They make money when mortgages are written. The magic recovery seems to be ignoring one of the purest fundamental plays on a relief rally. XLF also not very cheery. Ah well, party on Garth…
Jobs report tomorrow. ADP report was awful and tanked the market yesterday, people dont seem to worried today.
Oil pushing for close over $76, now $76.30, cheering up the oil companies and giving us our least favorite kind of rally.
TWX looking to make a move Oct $20s at .23, half out at .35 XXX
SHFL Jan ‘09 $20s at $2.30, selling Oct $17.50s for .65+ XXX
RTP – I’m offering $11.50 but no bites.
Not trusting CCJ is very smart! With any spread, you don’t want to lose more than 20% so when the gain of your caller outpaces the gain in your underlying by 20%, that’s probably a good time to buy him out but only if you have a plan to keep yourself covered and sell more premium if that just so happens to be the exact wrong moment (which it often is!).
Picked up the AAPL 2010 $150s at $35, still have my bid open for the $140s and now I patiently wait.
COP – as I said earlier, it’s a weekend hold for me.
Hah! Got my price on the AAPL 2010s! I love it when they blink!
