Much stronger than I thought here, semis doing ok at the open but I’m mostly waiting to see what shapes up, glad I got off the CROX shorts, they’re holding up well..
SNDK big rebound, GRMN – lots of tech that sold off yesterday is coming back. AA, CAT finding buyers. Also Ebay, YHOO, GM, OIH group… Bears beware if we hold up here (50% retrace of yesterday).
CHL at ATH – that’s very interesting on a day like today. UNH confirming my bottom theory for them. RIMM is up to its old tricks. BIDU strong too.
No sense risking September puts here if we turn up, I’d rather cash out and flip to Octobers rather than take a chance on losing nice gains. My upside break points are 2 of 3 S&P 1,475, DJI 13,350, Nas 2,585. XXX
RMBS moving again!
BIDU – yes, they’re October and I think whoever’s buying today is very mistaken. I’m down about 10% so not worth doing anything with yet and I’m too worried about a steep drop to sell against them but I figure I can always pick up $4 for the $230 puts if I have to – that would cover a roll-up on my Octobers. If they break $234 I’ll be worried enough to cover (and maybe DD if I can avg down to below $10).
Market now looking strong, strong, strong – very glad I dumped the short side. Will work back to neutral over the weekend but only October plays now – no Septembers!
GS OCT $195 calls at $6, will sell Sept calls against it later. XXX
I’m holding my XOM puts which are Fed independent, based more on my thoughts that the Oct contract will take a dive next week.
Consumer confidence is 83.8, up .4 from last month.
Fed meeting – I think it’s a no win but I guess weak retail sales are making buyers thnk they have reason to tighten..
I wouldn’t add puts yet, wait for it to break back down or fail at 13,400 and 2,600 – this is a very strong (and pointless) rally move off that dump in the morning.
FXI – nothing thank goodness! It’s been heading straight up since the open and it’s not my job to get in front of it but I can’t believe how these things are trading.
GM continues up as well while “safe” stocks like JNJ and BUD go down… very strange.
GS waiting possibly for LEH earnings.
X giving a second chance from yesterday’s pick. NUE and MT got away.
XTO – they’ve been lagging so if the patch stays up they will catch up a bit. I said I would DD at $1 and I am.
Good Apple play – I’ll sell you my $130 caller for $6 – that would be a good play for me! No one ever wants to hear this but you need to be very long, 2010 $150s at $36.40 at the moment, and sell the current $140s, now $2.17 and then roll to whatever is just out of the money next month. Wash rinse and repeat 26 times and you should do allright.
IBM – me too! I sold the current $115s at $2.40, now $1.95 but both Happy and I still believe in the position.
WYNN – I rolled my put up to the Oct $135s at $5.50 for $2.70 and am selling the current $140 puts for no less than $3. XXX
LVS – selling the $120 puts against my Oct $115 puts for $3.10 XXX
CAL back to irrational levels with oil at $80, taking Oct $30 puts for $1.30 XXX
Jared’s first – yep.
XLE buying Sept 30th $74s for .95, selling Sept 21st $73s for .95 – 10 in the $10KP but good for anyone. It’s a long way to $75 for this index.. XXX
YHOO – too dangerous.
Oops, here comes GS!
CAL puts – in case I’m wrong and oil goes through the roof.
FXI – I’m still shorting them at EOD
Reversal – yes, here it is! Still can’t buy the October DIA 135s for yesterday’s low of $3.40/3.50 so I’m still hoping we get a positive boost to short into.
Rates are shooting up again so all this is is another idiotic rally based on bad news (retail numbers) being good because “Surely the Fed will hear our cries and see our suffering and come to save us!” It’s simply too risky to take September puts or calls on the DIA.
Still too strong to short, tempting though it may be…
Back in the DIA $133 puts at $1.30 as there was simply nothing else worth buying!
Back to yesterday’s script with MCD and SHLD moving up. Nas still trailing by a wide margin, S&P less than impressive but lots of stocks on the move. Strangely not the OIHs..
XOM – I’m offering $1.20 for more Oct $85 puts
XLE – there are 2 september contracts, specifically, we are looking to buy HGHIV, now $1 and sell XBTIU, now .97 – I got the spread for 0.
ADBE – I like them but so has everybody else this month. Up 10% pre earnings is not a place I like to buy and I like them too much to short them so no play for me.
Very strange action on ABX today.
BX still heading higher (after a big post market dip).
UTX – I already sold $75s against mine, I’d sell them again if I were naked.
GS failing at my target – NOW I will sell the 2/3 $190 puts at $5 XXX
I talked to Tom about that, we are both very surprised by today’s recovery but again, it’s a low volume day…
Insurance plays – I’ve been hoping for a nice hurricane so I can buy on the dips. PRU is in a bad spot, might break out over $92.50 but I see a retest of at least $88 in their future. MET looks very good from here but $65 should be some problem so ‘10 $70s at $9.80 are great for selling the $65s against for .80 (very good for 5 days) and another $2.20 next week for the Octobers. XXX
GS – Oops, sorry! I’m so down on the market I’m seeing puts everywhere! I sold calls against my calls. I don’t go opposite the bet that I have. If I have a long call and sell a put then I am just doubling my trouble if it keeps going down but if I sell the call, I am guaranteeing I will earn the premium in the very least!
FXI – FFPMQ, the Jan $147 puts at $11.40. If we don’t get our dip for the weekend we can ssel the $154 puts for $2.80 or the $152 puts for $2.12 as FXI hasn’t been at $152 since Tuesday and it would take a pretty good drop to get them there in 5 days. Meanwhile, 5 days ago, the Jan puts were at $14 and we’re not out of pocket until $150, which you would think would hold up… XXX
XOM is running into the $500Bn rule (market cap) at this price!
XOM – I gave up and paid 1.30 when it ticked down, $1.66 avg entry on my set.
RMBS sold 3/4 $17.50s against my Octobers XXX
FWLT – I would rather roll than pay! I hate those guys…
BEAS something up
BEAS grabbed Oct $15s for .50 – I have no idea why…
Monday – I say not a great day because there will be no M&A deals getting done until they see what the rates are going to be (so I covered RMBS). I’ll be surprised if we hold 13,400 into the close. I’m about 2:1 negative on the index puts. Energy and brokers holding up the market today. Next week both may fail and then where will we be?
BEAS – oops, sorry that was DEC $15s!!! Gotta love Icahn…
Builders are getting bought like crazy, totally amazing! HOV is cutting 20% or more off the price of homes and people are throwing them a victory party. 20% is their ENTIRE gross margin and even at that price they’ve lost more than 5% of their market cap in cash for the past 3 quarters – this is how we build our rallies, on sheer stupidity…
Sold some (1/3) DIA $135 puts at $1.75 just in case…
