I have to call this a watching day for me. Let’s see if we get our breakouts before we start buying everything. Oil report will be a market mover I think (radio show on www.mn1.com at 10:25).
OIH puts – yes but I’m scared to read anything into it, maybe just someone covering their gains or maybe oil is setting up for a disappointment. That will knock the markets down fast if it happens.
We’re out on all levels, hard to imagine how it could turn with CPI and Builder data out of the way. Nat gas is still missing the party…
XLE – I’m trying to roll my caller to the 9/30 $73s for a .30 credit, hoping time will heal that wound, then I will roll my guy back to the Oct $74s for $1, net .70 out of pocket but I pick up a lot of time and some premium and I’m down a buck on the position anyway as it stands. With luck, a buck gets knocked off my caller this week or next and either way I’ll probably roll back and sell again but right now December is too expensive.
Rolling DIA puts to Oct $140s at $3.20 already sold 1/2 Sept $140s against half, now 2 as a mo play.
GOOG – going to roll back to Dec on my spread ahead of earnings, too in the money now anyway… Rolling my deep in the money caller to the $540s and then I will roll those to October if I have to. Market really going nuts though.
RMBS – have to leave the insurance on for now, very unlikely a deal is announced by Friday so downside more likely than up.
BSC is weaker of the 2 but LEH and MS turning down now, GS being held up on hopes but, as I said earlier, if anything will kill this rally this week, it will be GS missing.
Copper pricing is out of control but follow the thieves is a good theory
If GS doesn’t hold $205, we may get a pullback.
GOOG having touble at $550, neck and neck with CME which is strange becuase CME used to have a $50 edge and commodities are through the roof.
Banks dropping along with financials, we may get a pullback here…
Back after lunch but don’t forget to stop out of longs – cash is good!
XOM added Oct $90 puts at $1.50, looking to get even on total trade.
I can’t believe my VLO puts are working!
Markets tyring valiantly to hold on but energy is dragging us down.
The wrong kind of stuff is failing, DRYS, AU, HPQ, ICE, ATI – I like a GS spread with a negative bias now the Oct $190 puts for $3 against the Jan $230s for $5.70, selling the Oct $220s for $3.05. Risk to upside is $4 less your remaining spread. This is not a big money win but a good payer between $20 up or down. XXX
September calls – All of my losses this month came from dumb September contracts I either held too long or bought in the past week… It’s just not worth it, no matter how right you think you are. For a day trade maybe but otherwise the time value just gets you in the end.
M is really flying. MDT is also cranking. LEAP is leaping. On the whole it’s a little more balanced here but it’s kind of a toppy churn, I’d be happier if we hadn’t opened up here since it’s not proving much to hang out at 13,800 for the day but as long as the Nas and S&P hold up it will still get logged as a strong day.
FXI – As I said earlier, take the money and run. At this exact moment, I’d wait until the indexes break down as they may recover a bit but don’t be brave is they fail $165.
Goog $530 puts for .38 make for a fun play on bad GS earnings…
AAPL – caller too far in the money. Buying 2x Apr $150s, selling 1x ‘10 $140, rolling caller to 2x Oct $150s but not right away. XXX
AAPL $135 – My first instinct was we get a BS rally, we’re flat today and give back most tomorrow. I was so stunned by yesterday’s action that I lost confidence in what was hppening but my core logic was, if they want to screw people, either GS or FDX could be an excuse to nail all the bulls to the wall. Today is MUCH better than I expected if we hold 13,800 as I expected us between 13,700 and 13,800 – it seems like a small distinction but it’s not. S&P gave up 1,530 and now we have to watch the Nas, but the Russell is looking weak too and that’s bad. SOX are crushed but still, if you want to day-trade the DIA just watch GS, they are pulling it up and down 30 points every time they cross 205 one way or the other.
Gosh the average chart I’m looking at says we are either going to take off or tank tomorrow. Of course a 200 point pullback would not be a big deal in the grand scheme of things and anything less than a 100-point drop would be very bullish. On the upside, if we can get 13,800 back thats very bullish but we don’t have the SOX and we don’t have the transports (although FDX could possibly get them going).
XLE – I found an exit! Rolling to 1/2 the Jan $77s at $4.10 against the 12/31 $75s at $4.70, that’s .10 in our pocket and now our caller has $4.30 in premium and is barely in the money with multiple ATHs on components.
SLB going wild! RIG moving BHI $90s are just .35 xxx
HAL Oct $37.50s are also good at $1.55 XXX
GS – I got out of my uncovered GS calls, today was too much to take with all those profits that can be wiped out. Just left with Oct $195 against the Sept $190s which I tried to roll but the spreads were insane so I’m just hoping for a sell-off tomorrow.
