October 10th, 2007 at 9:41 am | Permalink edit
HMY – that is not a worst case scenario, I’m still offering .15 for DD
TSO off in a world of their own, as if they are better than VLO somehow…
MSFT doing well on a bad day. OIH group holding up well.
I sure wouldn’t go all short right here as there’s little conviction to the selling so far.
October 10th, 2007 at 9:46 am | Permalink edit
GRMN going down.
GS moving down. Also, WFMI, DRYS, MS. COST topping out here ($69). Let’s watch GS, AAPL and GOOG but it’s looking like there is some real money coming off the table there.
October 10th, 2007 at 9:51 am | Permalink edit
On the other hand, HPQ making new high. PCU new ATH. CSCO 52-week high (damn!) but SOX are down so I can’t get enthusiastic in tech.
GG with a nice gap up. AET at ATH (end of hurricane season looks tame).
SHLD coming back. Lots of exchanges doing well. FWLT is killing me – must never trade them again!
October 10th, 2007 at 10:02 am | Permalink edit
AA getting hammered! That’s not a good sign if people are going to be so negative.
UNH taking off fast.
Casinos are back in style.
Very schitzo market.
IRBT – wow that was painful! They guided down, but only a bit. I doubt we’ll have to worry about that .20 coming back on us. The question is whether to hold or move on. We’ll see if we bounce.
TSO Nov $50 puts at $2.25 XXX (can sell current $50 puts for .75 if it stays green, watch for VLO to come back as a warning).
October 10th, 2007 at 10:04 am | Permalink edit
Speaking of SPWR (earlier comments) they hit ATH.
IRBT – not worth holding, would rather buy $17.50s later. XXX
October 10th, 2007 at 10:29 am | Permalink edit
GM – I wouldn’t give them a premium right now, watch if they hold $37.75. If so, you might want to set a stop at $38 but, otherwise, I wish I hadn’t been greedy and bought puts myself yesterday. Chrysler may have a strike, if they don’t (11am) then GM may take off so be careful.
HMY – I would buy the $12.50s for .15 to reduce my basis to .25 so I can get out even. So far no takers despite the drop.
IRBT – depends on a couple of things. If I can buy the $20s for .10 I will. Once I am free, I may roll down or just sell, depending
BG – I have got to start taking more bullish risks! We had them on Mon!
October 10th, 2007 at 11:06 am | Permalink edit
GOOG – as long as I have $5 in premium in the Octobers I’m going to wait until just before earnings to roll callers to Nov but I will want to capture the extra $15ish at that time.
DNDN – if there were $8 and $9 calls, this would be the world’s greatest stock! They do this every couple of weeks and I always short about 1/2 the current $7.50s against my longer calls, one day I’ll be 1/2 wrong but not since April…
The current $7.50s are .95 at about $1 they are usually worth selling. Check out Sept 10 and 11, July 10, May right after expirations, March right after expirations, Apr 9 and 10… Just a coincidence I’m sure!
RIMM coming back.
October 10th, 2007 at 11:24 am | Permalink edit
Chrysler strike is on! This could last longer than GM because the UAW doesn’t want to take less than GM and Chrylser obviously has already decided they won’t do it.
MGM broke $100.
BTU was buy the Nov $50 puts for $2, sell the Oct $50 puts for .75, buy back the Oct put if it breaks below $51 today (and every day you should drop that target .15).
OII puts – I currently have 40 at .88 so a DD here would be pushing it with the stock flying up. It caught me off guard, I should have sold this morning as soon as it turned. Since I’m in for .88 on 40 ($3,500) I’m going to sell 20 $80 puts at $2.22 and I will cover them with Nov $80 puts, now $4.20 if OII dips below $79 (which I expect it to) or for $3.50, whichever comes first. XXX
Oil with a major comeback!
October 10th, 2007 at 11:54 am | Permalink edit
BA announces delays!!! Several months.
October 10th, 2007 at 11:57 am | Permalink edit
FXI $190 puts as a mo play at $5.50, out at $5 so really no tolerance for error. .50 tstop after $6 XXX
October 10th, 2007 at 12:13 pm | Permalink edit
FLEX – Not enough money in the $12.50s yet so either get .35 for the Nov $12.50s or take .50 and run, whichever way it breaks.
TIE, ATI, and BEAV getting killed on BA news. My other Boeing Buddy, AIR should be next so the Nov $35 puts are nice at $2.60 XXX
October 10th, 2007 at 12:20 pm | Permalink edit
BA great sell-off over not too much. They should hold $97.50 and, if not, they are a BUYBUYBUY at $95, I’m taking out my $110 and $100 callers at .20 and I will roll my May $110s down to the Jan $100s as an even trade and I’ll wait to see if I even want to sell the current $100s, now $1.20 but I think I might buy those for myself! My ‘09 $95s I will also stand pat on. XXX
October 10th, 2007 at 12:37 pm | Permalink edit
BIDU condor – It’s up $3,700 in the complex spreads virtual portfolio (10 contracts) so I’ll stop it out at $2,500 but hopefully BIDU will come down a bit as we still stand to make another $10K on it.
BA leaps – it’s like I said, it looked ot me like the market was being manipulated to make you complacent and get you to buy things at overinflated prices. I’m faily certain this run in SU is coming ahead of a huge drop. I just took out my $95 putters at $1.70 on that ridiculous run, probably I’ll sell them again later for $2.50.
VMI shooting up. AMTD joins the broker party. So many contradictory signals…
IRBT – waiting for tomorrow I think, unless it breaks $18, then cash and buy later.
Everyone can relax – OSTK is zooming up so things MUST be normal!
HXL – wow Always is righ!
VIX is less reaction than we would expect from a 100-point drop, gut feel says down is not so objectionable this month. In fact, VIX peaked at 10:20, when the market was holding up and started going down when the market droppped 60 more points – this could be a devestating early indicator but, on the weekly view, it’s still flat so we can’t read too much into daily moves.
October 10th, 2007 at 12:41 pm | Permalink edit
FLEX it broke down so yes, it should be killed!
October 10th, 2007 at 12:53 pm | Permalink edit
FWLT – that’s the complacency I’m talking about. There’s 7 days to go and that stock was at $130 5 days ago. That would give your caller $15 of intrinsic value – very dangerous. As Greenspan says, Asia is in a classic bubble – thats the kind of market where you feel like an idiot for having money anywhere but in the market. The problem is, when it starts to pull back and EVERYONE is already in – who do they sell to?
Bubbles can last for years (housing ran from 2002 to 2006 but they end VERY badly which is why we’ve been following the 30% rule. I’m happy to participate in a rally but I do like to have an exit strategy for when it ends.
BA – selling puts is good, happy to own it there!
October 10th, 2007 at 1:12 pm | Permalink edit
VLO – quite the comeback!
MER now saying market very toppy. Interesting timing.. Says this is like 1989, which led to a 20% correction in summer 1990.
BIDU condor – I have the same set as you , I can only assume you bought both legs of your bear call at the same time. either way, there’s still a lot of premium in the $320 caller at $20.40 vs your $340 caller at $11.70, which is still less money than the actual $13 difference from $320. You could spend $3 and roll both of you over to the Nov $350/$370 spread – there’s no hurry on this and it’s cheaper than paying him now.
October 10th, 2007 at 1:19 pm | Permalink edit
BIDU – oops, I meant cashing out your put side as they only have .40 left to go and they can conceivably hurt you (though doubtful). I would take out the putter for .55 and then ask for .55 on my puts.
October 10th, 2007 at 1:38 pm | Permalink edit
Nasdaq has all the “cool” stocks and should be doing well. It was their leadership we were looking for to go bullish a couple of months ago and we got it. Too bad the Russell didn’t confirm the move…
So far, it’s just a normal drop-off, no levels broken yet but the SOX and RUT kept us bearish today and will continue to do so until something improves.
October 10th, 2007 at 2:03 pm | Permalink edit
UTX – I think taking out the caller here is a good idea. We can always sell Nov tomorrow. XXX
XOM – Nov $90 puts may pay off at the open. I’m offering $1.90. XXX
October 10th, 2007 at 2:13 pm | Permalink edit
BA – you can hope but that’s why I took out the callers and bought the $100s earlier, I’m willing to take the chance at $98, happy to DD at $95.
BHI new ATH, OIH rockin’ at $195. OII also new high.
Brokers failing though, very tough call going into tomorrow.
MUR – if they can’t hold $75 then the Nov $75 puts are nice.
IMCL doing well. Such strange behavior all over the place but I am staying very cautious. Huge gains in STP today as spreads pay off and I picked the right set of calls to leave open (AMGN, AUY, DNDN, EBAY, NEM).
I have DIA Nov $140 puts uncovered as protects and another group of DIA Nov $141 puts that I sold current $140 puts agianst, still lots of premium there. QQQQ Nov $53 puts at $1.08 will be my overnight protection. XXX
October 10th, 2007 at 2:19 pm | Permalink edit
Energy sector mounting a huge rally.
October 10th, 2007 at 2:38 pm | Permalink edit
Sure thing short – I’m keeping after BIDU myself but it’s with the Jans ($300 puts) selling current $6 puts against (currently the $310 puts) and every time they lose $3 I roll both up $10. When it finally turns, I let the premium go and roll them to whatever Nov gets me an even roll (about $15 down), then I go through that cylcle in Nov and Dec.
WFMI got killed today, I should have put my money where my mouth was but this market has me scared to short!
Wow, oil closed up $1, up $1 from 12:30 – this is just so sick! Typical nonsense – 2 front month contracts are up, the rest are down. They knocked off about 20M barrels from Nov and added them to Dec.
RIMM – I’d kill it with this crazy stock. Up at $117 now, it’s beyond manipulated, possibly going back to $120 before pulling back again. Easier to just walk away….
TSO – yes, I’d take the chance into tomorrow’s open on that. Taking out the putters here and we can always sell higher calls tomorrow. XXX
October 10th, 2007 at 2:50 pm | Permalink edit
Have to take callers off the table with stops at this point, looks like we could come back so letting the longs ride and putting a little more into Nov DIA puts. CAT is one example, that was a nice dip, why waste it? XXX
October 10th, 2007 at 3:06 pm | Permalink edit
CY – I love those guys but I prefer to enter those on a pullback, not near the ATH.
CAT/Any callers – if we are coming off a bottom like this we can stop out our Oct callers and then either buy them back or roll to Nov when the momentum stops, this may not be just a bounce, we could shoot right back up tomorrow after showing such strength on this sell-off. I think it’s ridiculous but it’s thinking that gets you in trouble in this market so we just continue to go with the flow.
BIDU going hog wild!
October 10th, 2007 at 3:50 pm | Permalink edit
XOM puts – still scaling in…
